Overfished Beyond Repair: Urban Aquaculture Solution to the World Food Crisis

Professor Martin Schreibman says, “Our oceans have been overfished beyond repair. If we’re going to keep eating fish and chips, tuna tartare, and all those omega-3 fatty acids, we have to rely on aquaculture..” to supplement our World Food Supply. 

ABOUT THE VIDEO: Schreibman is working to bring those fish farms into the city. Urban Aquaculture! 

Renewable Energy: What is Sustainable Energy? World Research Base for Clean Energy

Renewable Energy

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TOPICALITY The words in the topic (“Resolved: that the federal government should establish a policy to substantially increase renewable energy use in the United States”) are fairly clear. While there are areas of potential argumentation on other terms (policy vs. program, for example), the critical term seems to be “renewable” energy. There seem to be at least three schools of thought on what “renewable” energy is. 1. “It doesn’t runs out.” Renewable energy is energy which is easily replaced, reproduces itself, or “doesn’t run out.” By this approach sources such as solar and wind would be clearly renewable energy, but other energy forms such as geothermal energy and energy efficiency would not be. 2. “It comes from natural forces.” The shining of the sun, the motion of the wind, the cycle of the tides, the power in plants, all of these are basic energy inputs which come from the solar system and our planet and the movement of both. Once again, the common forms would be included, but other forms such as energy efficiency and nuclear breeder reactors would be excluded. 3. “Anything but fossil fuels or normal nuclear.” Some energy forms produce energy by transforming matter which is in limited supply, such as fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) and uranium, which are “burned” as “fuel” for “energy” AND it takes a long, long time to get them back. Nobody argues that millions of years from now current landfills may be fossil fuels, or that uranium is being created in the universe, just as nobody should argue that the sun is not renewable because it will run down in a few billion years. But, within a relevant time scale, fossil fuels and uranium are gone once we “burn” them, while solar energy, biomass, wind power, geothermal energy, as well as things like energy efficiency and conservation can be harvested over and over again. The definitions below approach these different interpretations and then apply them to specific energy sources. There are some broad inclusive definitions, and then some specific evidence about some of the more peripheral energy sources, such as energy efficiency and geothermal energy. Find the approach which you feel is intellectually and linguistically valid and apply it to the debate round. I expect that this year will entail fewer topicality arguments than most years, but we all know that some teams will argue that nuclear breeder reactors are “renewable energy” while other teams will argue that the sun isn’t renewable because it will run out in a few billion years. I suspect that there are enough good opportunities for debate on the more substantive and central techniques and processes which are called “renewable energy.” -Alfred C. Snider TOPICALITY DEFINITIONS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY DEFINITION: RENEWABLE ENERGY IS SUSTAINABLE AND FROM A NATURAL ENVIRONMENT Canadian Chemical News | DEFINITION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY | TOPICALITY ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS TOPICAL INCREASED EFFICIENCY INCREASES THE USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; efficiency, ever-growing energy demand will drive energy costs up while undermining environmental progress toward cleaner air. INCREASED ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEANS A DIRECT INCREASE IN OTHER FORMS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 244 Renewable energy systems tend to have high initial (capital) costs and low operating costs. Because energy efficiency reduces our peak need for energy and the size of energy systems required, the high first-cost barriers blocking many renewables would fall. This is another important connection between renewable energy and energy efficiency. ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY MUST BE LUMPED TOGETHER JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. XIV Why have I chosen to include energy efficiency technology and electric vehicles in a book on renewable energy? Electric vehicles are included because electric propulsion is a “bridge” technology that extends renewable energy into the transportation sector. While we can’t plug today’s gasoline-powered cars and trucks into the electric power flowing from a wind turbine generator or from a solar electric panel (or solar power plant), electric vehicles can be connected to renewable electricity easily. Similarly, alcohol and diesel fuels derived from the solar energy stored in plants can operate common internal combustion engines. Energy efficiency is included because it reduces both energy demand and the environmental impacts of energy use. ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS THE BEST SOURCE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 243 No discussion of energy policy options would be complete without including energy efficiency, a measure of work or services derived per unit of energy. Efficiency is unquestionably the best energy resource covered in this book, because it is cost-effective, profitable, safe, clean, and dependable. The greater the efficiency, the less energy required. Its use entails no sacrifices or lifestyle changes, as we will see, yet public health and safety are improved. TOPICALITY GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IS NOT TOPICAL GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IS NOT RENEWABLE JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 236 As to the sustainability of geothermal power, deep geothermal energy is not renewable in the same sense that solar and wind energy are constantly replenished by the sun. Geothermal reservoirs do lose heat and pressure when energy is extracted from geothermal zones, and they may also lose water, if it is not reinjected. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY RESERVES ARE NOT RENEWABLE BECAUSE THEY BECOME DEPLETED JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 236 Some depletion of geothermal reserves has already occurred at The Geysers, which peaked in output a few years ago at about 2,000 megawatts. Depletion occurs most rapidly if a reservoir’s heat-bearing fluid is removed and is not sufficiently replaced by reinjection. Any resource will in time become depleted if energy is extracted faster than it can be replenished. Some high-quality energy is degraded during power production, however, leading to an eventual reduction in the field’s capacity, even with reinjection. ——————————————————————————————————–TOPICALITY GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IS TOPICAL DEFINITION: RENEWABLE ENERGY INCLUDES GEOTHERMAL Fred J. Sissine, Science Policy Research Division, Congressional Research Report, September 1, 1996, TITLE: RENEWABLE ENERGY: A NEW NATIONAL OUTLOOK? // VT98-acs Renewable energy is derived from resources that are generally not depletable, such as the sun, wind, and water movement. These sources of natural energy can be converted into usable energy in several ways. There are a number of relatively mature technologies for conversion of renewable energy such as hydropower, biomass, and waste combustion. Other conversion technologies, such as wind turbines and photovoltaics, are already well developed, but have not achieved the technological efficiency and market penetration of which they are expected to be ultimately capable. Although geothermal energy is produced from geological rather than solar sources, it is often included as a renewable energy resource. This report includes geothermal energy as one renewable energy source. TOPIOCALITY NATURAL GAS AND LANDFILL GAS ARE NOT TOPICAL RENEWABLE ENERGY COMMUNITY REJECTS NATURAL GAS AS A PART OF IT Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs While some members of the renewable energy community see the advent of cheap natural gas as a threat, other environmentalists argue that any technology able to replace old, dirty coal plants and nuclear power stations merits support. NATURAL GAS DOESN’T QUITE MAKE IT INTO THE RENEWABLE ENERGY CATEGORY — MASSACHUSETTS EXAMPLE Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Massachusetts is considering a system benefits charge for renewables. Proposals have been made to include fuel cells fired by natural gas (which is a cleaner fuel than coal and oil, but not as clean as most renewable energy resources) because they would improve the environment in the near term and provide a bridge to a more sustainable future in the long term. But to many, being greener is not sufficient to qualify as being green. LANDFILL GAS IS NOT RENEWABLE — IT RUNS OUT AFTER DECADES Universal News Services, November 27, 1996, TITLE: LANDFILL GAS A WORLD-BEATING SUCCESS SAYS RICHARD PAGE // VT98-acs “It is quite clear that landfill gas will continue to be produced for decades from waste already disposed of, whatever the longer-term position of landfill as a suitable means of disposing of waste, and I urge British companies to make use of such opportunities by building on their achievements. Our guide produced today will help them in a market which, world wide, represents at least L5,000 million of investment opportunities.” [Energy Minister Richard Page] AFFIRMATIVE CASES We offer here a good start at evaluating the basic pro-renewables approach as well as two specific proposals, both of which are fairly unconventional but very topical. Just examine the various sections, no matter what your affirmative case is, and you will find many of the inherency, significance, and solvency evidence which you will need. A First Affirmative speech could be constructed here in a simple format: I. Inherency-Plan-II. Solvency-III. Advantages GREEN PRICING is the first plan suggested. The idea is that since the electric utility industry is in the process of deregulating itself (choose power company like you choose a phone company), now would be a good time to require utilities to offer to their customers a “Green Pricing” option where customers could agree to pay slightly more if their power was coming from environmentally friendly renewable energy. Making sure that customers can choose renewable energy will greatly increase its mainstream use. DISCLOSURE & CERTIFICATION is the second plan suggested. Once again, assuming utility deregulation, consumers will be put in a position to choose their power provider, and this will lead to a lot of confusion by consumers. This approach would require each electric utility to disclose to customers how much energy they are supplying from dirty sources and how much they are supplying from renewables. Power companies will compete on the basis of being “environmentally friendly” to attract customers, and thus the use of renewable energy will increase if utilities have to certify their power mix and disclose it to their customers. It helps the market for renewable energy sources work better. 6-12 INHERENCY: Barriers to renewable energy in the status quo HARMS: Harms if fossil fuels and advantages of renewable energy 13-14 General 15-21 Oil dependency 22-24 Global warming 25-32 Air pollution 33 Developing world 34-47 GREEN PRICING 48-56 DISCLOSURE & CERTIFICATION SOLVENCY: Renewable energy use is the answer for our energy future 57-66 General renewable energy solvency 67-71 Wind 72-76 Solar 77-81 Biomass 82-83 Efficiency 84-85 Transportation AFFIRMATIVE INHERENCY STATUS QUO WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ENERGY USE FROM CURRENT SOURCES EMERGING WORLD ENERGY SYSTEM WILL EMPHASIZE FOSSIL FUEL, HYDROELECTRIC, AND NUCLEAR Heinrich von Pierer, chairman of Siemens AG, Power Engineering, October, 1996; Pg. 58; TITLE: Efficiency improvements are critical for a bright tomorrow // VT98-acs A balanced worldwide energy supply is only possible by using technologies that are available and also easily applied in less developed countries – fossil-fueled power plants and, where possible, hydroelectric plants. In many regions, particularly in the rapidly developing Asia-Pacific, as well as in the Americas and Europe, nuclear power plants will continue to be built as well. New generations of pressurized and boiling water reactors will offer further improvements in operating safety. RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL GROW AT AROUND 2% A YEAR OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS The Washington Quarterly, 1996 Autumn; Pg. 71, TITLE: Policy Forum: Energy Futures // VT98-acs Natural gas and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, and other renewable resources) are expected to be the fastest growing energy sources over the projection period, at 2.0 and 2.3 percent per year respectively. The increase in natural gas use reflects efforts to reduce pollution and carbon emissions by switching to cleaner fuels. Growing support for research on renewable energy technologies in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and rising demand for electric power in nonOECD countries are the principal factors underlying the rapid growth of renewable energy use in the forecast. THE STATUS QUO WILL REMAIN A HOSTAGE TO UNSTABLE MIDDLE EAST OIL Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Washington Post, September 15, 1996, Pg. C02, TITLE: If We Kicked the Oil Habit, Saddam Wouldn’t Menace Us // VT98-acs IT’S BEEN business as usual lately in the oil-rich Persian Gulf: Iraq’s assault on a Kurdish faction, America’s retaliatory strikes and the June bombing of an American military barrack in Saudi Arabia. It’s also been business as usual in American energy policy as well, with Congress likely to vote soon to keep federal efforts to develop oil alternatives at nearly trivial levels. As a result, our energy future will remain hostage to events in this chronically unstable region. PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND WILL SKYROCKET ALL OVER THE WORLD Gustavo Gonzalez, Inter Press Service, September 13, 1996, TITLE: LATIN AMERICA: U.N. REPORT FORECASTS LARGE OIL INVESTMENTS TO 2010 // VT98-acs The most spectacular increases in the demand for primary energy will be seen in East and South Asia, particularly in China. Within developing regions, Latin America will surpass only Africa. POPULATION GROWTH AND ORBANIZATION GUARANTEE THAT WORLD ENERGY DEMAND WILL INCREASE Stefan Halper, is host of NET Television’s “World Wise” and a former White House and State Department official, The Christian Science Monitor, October 18, 1996, Pg. 18 // VT98-acs More broadly, the problem is anchored by two powerful trends. First, by 2020 the world’s population is expected to increase by 50 percent with well over half of these new inhabitants born in Latin America and Asia. Migration to the cities and the mechanics of urbanization – commuting, construction, and powering new buildings – will all demand huge amounts of energy. A doubling of China’s and India’s urban populations alone could increase per capita energy consumption in those countries by 45 percent GLOBAL COAL AND NUCLEAR USE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY Gustavo Gonzalez, Inter Press Service, September 13, 1996, TITLE: LATIN AMERICA: U.N. REPORT FORECASTS LARGE OIL INVESTMENTS TO 2010 // VT98-acs Concern for the environment will cause the proportion represented by coal to drop slightly. But the most significant drop will be experienced by nuclear energy, which grew at an annual rate of 15.9 percent from 1971 to 1991, and is now projected to fall to a rate of 1.3 percent a year. INHERENCY RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IS SEVERELY HAMPERED BY FUNDING SHORTFALLS RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE USA IS IN A SAD STATE OF AFFAIRS AGIS SALPUKAS, The New York Times, March 9, 1997, Section 4; Page 5; TITLE: Inheriting the Wind; Green Power Wanes, but Not at the Grass Roots // VT98-acs But in the past five years, the promise of renewable power has become a distant hope. Incentives provided by state regulators and utilities have disappeared. Federal research funds have been cut by a budget-conscious Congress. The industry itself has stumbled. Kenetech’s newest turbines were flawed, according to a stockholder lawsuit and some industry analysts, and the company’s wind subsidiary was forced to seek bankruptcy protection. GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE ENERGY R&D HAVE BOTH DECLINED Christine Ervin Assistant Secretary Energy Efficiency And Renewable Energy, Federal News Service, MARCH 19, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Statement Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs In 1995, our Secretary of Energy Task Force, under the chairmanship of Daniel Yergin, told us that federal support for energy R&D had declined more than three-fold in real terms in the past 15 years, and that private sector energy R&D had fallen off sharply. That situation has not changed. RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT DEPENDS ON NEW FORMS OF FINANCING Angus Gova, Inter Press Service, September 27, 1996, TITLE: ZIMBABWE: SOLAR SUMMIT — TALK OR ACTION? // VT98-acs However, the development of renewable energies requires much more money from both government and the private sector. Innovative new financing opportunities must be created, including micro financing, and the need to attract private capital to supplement the insufficient public resources. INHERENCY GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY IS INSUFFICIENT RENEWABLE ENERGY FUNDING IS STATIC OR DECLINING Mark Crawford, New Technology Week, February 10, 1997, TITLE: Science, Tech budgets Can’t Escape Squeeze // VT98-acs With few exceptions, the White House budget package for research and development reflects the ongoing realities of the federal budget climate. Like all discretionary accounts, science and technology are being squeezed by the growing cost of debt service and entitlement programs. The Clinton administration, on a macroeconomic basis, is trying limit the damage by holding spending levels for many programs, but this provides no relief from the erosive effects of inflation. FEDERAL RENEWABLE ENERGY FUNDING IS NOW STATIC Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Washington Post, September 15, 1996, Pg. C02, TITLE: If We Kicked the Oil Habit, Saddam Wouldn’t Menace Us // VT98-acs Deep cuts for alternative energy programs were averted in mid-summer when the House and Senate restored most of the spending cuts approved by their respective appropriations committees. Still, funding is set to remain at modest levels for the near future. For example, the budget for the clean car program (currently spread among several agencies) will probably remain at about $ 300 million. And the Energy Department’s total research efforts on new transportation technologies will probably be cut from nearly $ 207 million in 1996 to just under $ 200 million for 1997. CONGRESS DOES NOT WANT TO PUT RENEWABLE ENERGY AS A PRIORITY UNLESS THEY SEE BENEFITS IN THEIR OWN CONSTITUENCIES Global Warming Network Online Today, December 5, 1996, TITLE: RFA Encourages Biomass, Liquid Fuel Alliance // VT98-acs However, he [legislative director of the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), Bob Dinneen] also noted that this widespread popular support is not mirrored in the U.S. Congress, where only those “members who recognize the economic benefit to their community” generally support renewable energy -related initiatives. CONGRESS WANTS CUTS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY SPENDING Gary Lee, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post, September 25, 1996, Pg. A03, TITLE: Government Researchers Fear Budget Cuts Will Cool Solar Energy Work // VT98-acs Yet, in the last two years, Congress has questioned the wisdom of the investment. In 1995, a GOP-led campaign to trim the federal budget slashed the 1996 budget for NREL, including funding for solar and other photovoltaics projects, from $ 237 million to $ 167 million. A General Accounting Office report issued last April acknowledged the success of the photovoltaics industry but raised doubts about whether federal funding for renewable energy sources has yielded as big a payoff as was reported, prompting a push last summer for additional budget cuts. Proponents of the cuts, led by Rep. Robert S. Walker (R-Pa.) argued that corporations are collecting too many federal funds and should assume more of the financial burden for research. CONGRESS CUT FUNDING FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY IN FISCAL 1997 Gary Lee, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post, September 25, 1996, Pg. A03, TITLE: Government Researchers Fear Budget Cuts Will Cool Solar Energy Work // VT98-acs Apparently unconvinced by such arguments, Congress approved a slight decrease in funding for research and development in solar and other renewables for fiscal 1997, to $ 269 million a year. (The Pentagon budget, by comparison, is $ 256.6 billion for 1997.) FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS CUTTING PROGRAMS TO DEVELOP TECHNOLOGIES WE WILL NEED TO FIGHT GLOBAL WARMING David Lore, science reporter, The Columbus Dispatch, September 22, 1996, Pg. 7C., TITLE: WAITING TO PAY FOR CHEAPER TECHNOLOGIES IS FOLLY // VT98-acs It seems that it takes money to develop the kind of ‘’silver-bullet” technologies that we’ll be counting on to save the atmosphere, the polar ice caps and maybe even Florida before the end of the next century. Yet, energy department spending on energy supply research programs would decline 38 percent if Congress sticks to its seven-year deficit reduction plan, the American Association for the Advancement of Science says. RENEWABLE ENERGY FUNDING HAS NEVER BEEN SUFFICIENT, AND REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATIONS IN THE 1980’s KILLED IT Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Commercial Appeal (Memphis), September 22, 1996, SECTION: VIEWPOINT, Pg. 4B, TITLE: Oil habit keeps United States entangled with Iraq // VT98-acs But compared with such major national research efforts as the Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars) or the Apollo space program, these sums were a pittance. Even worse, nearly all energy research and development programs were gutted by President Reagan in 1982. His successors have pushed for only modest increases. INHERENCY ENERGY INDUSTRIES HAVE BLOCKED DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES RENEWABLE ENERGY HAS NOT BEEN PROMOTED BECAUSE THE ENERGY SECTOR IS INHERENTLY CONSERVATIVE Christos Papoutsis, EU Commissioner, RAPID, March 21, 1997, TITLE: Speech by Commissioner Christos Papoutsis “Towards a Community action plan for renewable energy sources” // VT98-acs There are many reasons for the disappointingly low exploitation of renewables. We have to recognize that, overall, the energy sector – for good or for worse – is relatively conservative. Changes do not happen overnight. USA OIL COMPANIES SABOTAGE RENEWABLE ENERGY IN ORDER TO KEEP AMERICA HOOKED ON IMPORTED OIL EDWIN S. ROTHSCHILD, energy policy director of Citizen Action, The Houston Chronicle, October 27, 1996, Pg. 4, TITLE: It’s government and Big Oil that keep U.S.hooked // VT98acs Instead of promoting a domestic energy policy, America’s multinational oil companies have used their economic and political muscle not only to obtain subsidies that help increase America’s reliance on imported oil, but also to lobby against competing domestic alternatives. Kenneth Derr, chairman of Chevron, claims that “”there simply are no viable, affordable alternatives to oil” and has attacked as “”impractical, uneconomic and unnecessary” compressed natural gas, propane, ethanol, methanol and electric vehicles all of which, not surprisingly, are domestically based. MAJOR USA OIL COMPANIES DEEPEN DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED OIL WHILE SABOTAGING THE USA ECONOMY EDWIN S. ROTHSCHILD, energy policy director of Citizen Action, The Houston Chronicle, October 27, 1996, Pg. 4, TITLE: It’s government and Big Oil that keep U.S.hooked // VT98acs Multinational oil companies that reap billions of dollars in corporate welfare from American taxpayers are shifting investments, profits and jobs overseas while they increase U.S. oil dependency. In 1985, 46 percent of Exxon’s jobs were in the United States. In 1995, only 37 percent were. Similarly, in 1995 more than half of the petroleum income for Exxon, Mobil, Chevron and Texaco came from foreign sources. As a direct result, U.S. oil imports by those companies grew 65 percent between 1986 and 1995, while overall U.S. oil imports grew by 42 percent. VESTED INTERESTS IN FOSSIL FUELS HAVE BEEN A BARRIER TO SOLAR POWER Sue Fishkoff, The Jerusalem Post, January 17, 1997, Pg. 8, TITLE: Rays of Hope // VT98-acs In the past decade, however, the solar pace has become more sluggish. Vested interests in fossil fuels, coupled with an end to the world oil crisis, lessened pressures on Western governments and industry – including Israel’s – to fund alternative energy projects. UTILITIES SUPPORT EXISTING POWER SOURCES, NOT NEW ONES James R. Udall, Sierra, January 11, 1997; Pg. 26; TITLE: Power to the people; are you willing to pay more for clean energy? // VT98-acs And with ownership stakes in fossil plants, coal mines, and nuclear stations, many utilities are fierce defenders of the status quo. “Some utilities have an internal conflict,” says Ed Holt, editor of the Green Pricing Newsletter. “They aren’t likely to take out ads saying, ‘Buy more renewable energy and help displace our dirty power plants!’” PRIVATE UTILITIES ARE THE ONES WHO HAVE STOPPED RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPANSION, SPECIFICALLY SOLAR Publishers Weekly, December 30, 1996; Pg. 51; TITLE: Who Owns the Sun? People, Politics and the Struggle for a Solar Economy; book reviews Daniel M. Berman and John T. O’Connor // VT98-acs Environmental activists Berman and O’Connor offer a scathing explanation of why solar technology has played such an insignificant role in meeting America’s energy needs. Politicians, utility companies and even many mainstream environmental groups come under attack for either their lack of leadership on this issue or for their downright hostility to solar possibilities. The authors argue convincingly that the impediment to widespread adoption of environmentally friendly energy sources is no longer technological but rather the fear that private utility companies’ profit margins will suffer. WORLD ENERGY SYSTEM FOCUSES ON PROFITS, BUT SAVING THE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH RENEWABLE ENERGY Oliver Morgan, MAIL ON SUNDAY, February 09, 1997: Pg. 8, TITLE: New dawn beckons if the world turns to the sun // VT98-acs THIS year the world will harvest less electricity from the sun than an average sized power station can produce. The technology to produce environmentally friendly energy is there, but not the will. As world utility markets open up and profit-hungry global power groups emerge, investors, businessmen and even governments are focused on generating shareholder value, not on saving the environment. INHERENCY LOW OIL PRICES PREVENT RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES FROM DEVELOPING GULF OIL IS CHEAP AND ABUNDANT, WHICH STOPS US FROM BREAKING OUR DEPENDENCY ON IT Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Washington Post, September 15, 1996, Pg. C02, TITLE: If We Kicked the Oil Habit, Saddam Wouldn’t Menace Us // VT98-acs Why the apparent lack of interest in kicking our national oil habit? If we no longer needed Persian Gulf oil, we could marginalize Saddam Hussein, the Saudi terrorist bombers and the entire region. The main problem is the broad agreement that there are no real alternatives to the Gulf’s cheap, abundant oil. LOW OIL PRICES KEEP RENEWABLE ENERGY OUT OF THE FUNDING PLANS OF THE USA Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Commercial Appeal (Memphis), September 22, 1996, SECTION: VIEWPOINT, Pg. 4B, TITLE: Oil habit keeps United States entangled with Iraq // VT98-acs The justification for scaling back alternative energy research has been the dramatic fall in the world market price of oil after 1979. The OPEC- driven price increases had prompted significant energy conservation gains. Why pour tax dollars into uncertain and unconventional projects when inflation-adjusted oil prices had sunk back nearly to preOPEC levels and seemed likely to stay there? RENEWABLE ENERGY IS UNDERDEVELOPED BECAUSE GULF OIL IS ARTIFICIALLY LOW IN PRICE Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Washington Post, September 15, 1996, Pg. C02, TITLE: If We Kicked the Oil Habit, Saddam Wouldn’t Menace Us // VT98-acs The justification for scaling back alternative energy research has been the dramatic fall in the world market price of oil after 1979. The OPEC-driven price increases had prompted significant energy conservation gains. Why pour tax dollars into uncertain and unconventional projects when inflation-adjusted oil prices had sunk back nearly to preOPEC levels and seemed likely to stay there? The answer is that the price we pay for oil is reflected not just in what the world market charges consumers and businesses for a gallon of gas or a barrel of crude. The enormous military costs of securing steady supplies of Gulf oil also must be added to America’s fuel bill. The Pentagon does not officially calculate the amount it spends to defend various regions of the world. But in the mid-1980s, then-Navy secretary John Lehman estimated that the forces devoted to Gulf security cost some $ 40 billion annually. The U.S. effort has not slackened since then. Once you factor in this conservative figure the imported oil Americans think costs them about $ 23 per barrel actually costs nearly $ 100. STATUS QUO USA POLICY DOES NOTHING TO STOP DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED OIL Robert Greene, Austin American-Statesman, October 13, 1996; Pg. K3, TITLE: More bucks sought for biofuels research; Advocates say fuel from farmlands could fill good chunk of U.S. gasoline needs // VT98-acs ”A substantial reduction in U.S. dependence on foreign oil should be central goal of foreign and domestic policy,” said Sen. Dick Lugar, R-Ind., chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee and a member of the Foreign Relations and Select Intelligence committees. ”Sadly, it is not.” FEDERAL GOVERNMENT POLICY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR USA DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED OIL EDWIN S. ROTHSCHILD, energy policy director of Citizen Action, The Houston Chronicle, October 27, 1996, Pg. 4, TITLE: It’s government and Big Oil that keep U.S.hooked // VT98acs Contrary to the propaganda of the nation’s largest oil companies, America’s costly and dangerous dependence on oil imports is not simply the result of free-market forces, but rather of deliberate government intervention. Of immense consequence, for example, was President Ronald Reagan’s decision in 1985 to persuade Saudi Arabia to drive oil prices down from $ 29 to $ 18 a barrel, to stimulate U.S. and world oil consumption. While the Reagan administration’s decision did lower consumer prices, it also devastated the domestic oil industry, investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. OIL PRICES ARE NOW LOW AND WILL REMAIN LOW The Washington Quarterly, 1996 Autumn; Pg. 71, TITLE: Policy Forum: Energy Futures // VT98-acs The world oil price has declined in recent years, and in real terms it is currently near its 1970 level (see figure 4). The combination of enhanced oil production capacity, end-use technologies that are more fuel-efficient, and shifts from oil to alternative energy sources has resulted in strong downward pressure on prices, even though worldwide demand for oil has continued to increase. Prices are expected — absent any major political event that would affect oil markets — to remain stable for the next few years and then to rise gradually, remaining below $ 25 per barrel (in 1993 U.S. dollars), through the end of the projection period. INHERENCY HUGE TAX BREAKS AND SUBSIDIES FOR CONVENTIONAL ENERGY SOURCES DAMAGES THE DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES MAJOR OIL COMPANIES RECEIVE HUGE FAVORITISM IN THE STATUS QUO EDWIN S. ROTHSCHILD, energy policy director of Citizen Action, The Houston Chronicle, October 27, 1996, Pg. 4, TITLE: It’s government and Big Oil that keep U.S.hooked // VT98-acs While major oil company executives talk about the “”free market,” “”competition” and “”taking risks,” in reality they crave “”government intervention,” “”government protection” and “”government subsidies. ” FEDERAL SUBSIDIES AND TAX BREAKS ARE THE CAUSE OF RELIANCE ON IMPORTED OIL EDWIN S. ROTHSCHILD, energy policy director of Citizen Action, The Houston Chronicle, October 27, 1996, Pg. 4, TITLE: It’s government and Big Oil that keep U.S.hooked // VT98-acs Just as important to growing oil-import dependency are specific government policies which provide billions in taxpayer subsidies to U.S.-based multinational oil companies. A combination of tax breaks, cheap government-backed loans and insurance and military protection of the Persian Gulf make up the three-legged stool of government incentives that promote overseas oil investment. In 1995, just four companies – Exxon, Mobil, Chevron and Texaco – reported $ 18.8 billion of foreign income on which, because of a provision in the tax code known as “”deferral,” they paid no U.S. income taxes. Moreover, in 1994 oil companies claimed $ 5 billion in foreign tax credits which U.S. Rep. Billy Tauzin, R-La., has said “encourages the majors to explore abroad rather than in America. ” CONTINUED SUBSIDIES FOR NUCLEAR AND FOSSIL FUELS CREATE AN UNFAIR PLAYING FIELD FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY Anna Aurilio Staff Scientist U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee As you may know, U.S. PIRG and PIRGs around the country have been working to shift energy priorities from polluting sources of energy such as fossil and nuclear towards energy efficiency and clean, renewable energy sources such as solar. wind and geothermal. Continued subsidies for polluting energy sources create an unfair playing field for clean energy sources. INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM DISCRIMINATES AGAINST SMALL SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS WHICH CAN HAVE A HUGE NET EFFECT Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, November 11, 1996, Pg. 06, TITLE: A business praying for ‘cultural revolution’ // VT98-acs The International Institute for Energy Conservation, a non-profit making organisation that seeks to promote energy efficiency in the developing world, says the international financial system is skewed against energy efficiency projects. This is because individually the projects are small-scale, even though considered collectively the market potential is very large. INHERENCY PREVIOUS RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS WERE DESTROYED USA MOVED TO BECOME ENERGY INDEPENDENT AFTER THE OIL CRISIS OF THE 1970′S, BUT THEN WE TURNED OUR BACK ON DEVELOPING RENEWABLE ENERGY Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Washington Post, September 15, 1996, Pg. C02, TITLE: If We Kicked the Oil Habit, Saddam Wouldn’t Menace Us // VT98-acs The United States once seemed serious about ending its reliance on Mideast oil. After the 1973 OPEC price shocks, annual federal spending on research and development for renewable energy sources — such as solar power, wind power and biofuels, derived from crops and crop waste — increased from virtually nothing to more than $ 700 million in 1981. But compared with such major national research efforts as the Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars) or the Apollo space program, these sums were a pittance. Even worse, nearly all energy research and development programs were gutted by Ronald Reagan in 1982. His successors have pushed for only modest increases. SOLAR DEVELOPMENT DIED IN THE 1980′S John J. Monahan, SUNDAY TELEGRAM, February 2, 1997; Pg. B5; TITLE: America should spiral out of shadow and use sun’s power // VT98-acs [John T. O'Connor, president of Greenworks Inc., and co-author] What had been a $ 475 million annual solar industry in California in 1985, withered to $ 20 million business in 1986. In Colorado, the $ 9 million per year gross sales in solar water heaters fell sharply to $ 1 million the same year. “Under President George Bush, who actually owned an oil company, things went from bad to worse,” the authors claim. STATUS QUO DOES NOT CONSIDER ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL GOALS IN TANDEM Curtis A. Moore, Director of International Programs for the American Lung Association, February, 1997; DYING NEEDLESSLY: SICKNESS AND DEATH DUE TO ENERGY-RELATED AIR POLLUTION; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs With few exceptions, scant attention has been given to integrating energy and environmental goals and strategies. U.S. energy and environmental laws are written with little sensitivity to these intersections. For example, the Clean Air Act does not provide clear guidance or means of crediting renewable energy developers with the environmental benefit of their actions. (REPP will pursue this subject in future research projects.) EPA and the Department of Energy operate largely independently of one another. WIND ENERGY IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE STATUS QUO SUPPLY OF USA WIND ENERGY IS FLAT OR DROPPING DENNIS WAMSTED, New Technology Week, September 3, 1996, TITLE: PC-Like Growth Spurt Ahead For Windpower? // VT98-acs However, while wind capacity is on the rise in Germany–the nation added 505 MW of new generation in 1995–U.S. capacity is flat. In fact, Flavin said, U.S.-installed capacity actually dropped slightly in 1995, with 58 MW of California capacity taken out of service, while only 50 MW of capacity, mainly in Texas, was added to the grid. WIND POWER IS SABOTAGED BY NUCLEAR AND FOSSIL FUEL PROPONENTS Jonathon Porritt, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS Third, if the amount of wind energy is still minuscule, that’s partly because defenders of nuclear and fossil fuels (often posturing as defenders of the British countryside) have done everything in their power to thwart its development. Windpower already provides enough electricity for a city the size of Bristol and could provide up to 10 per cent of UK electricity by 2025, creating 13,000 new jobs in the process. HARMS RETAINING STATUS QUO EMPHASIS AWAY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY CAUSES MANY SERIOUS HARMS [cards with lists] SEVEN REASONS WE SHOULD PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY European Community Green Paper, RAPID, November 21, 1996, TITLE: RENEWABLE SOURCES: ENERGY FOR THE FUTURE Renewable sources of energy should be promoted for a number of reasons: 1. They go hand in hand with the objective of protecting the environment, and in particular help reduce CO2 and other emissions; 2. Being indigenous sources they contribute to reducing dependency of energy imports; 3. They are advanced technologies, which can play a role in revitalising sectors of European industry and contribute to competitiveness; 4. They generate employment, in particular in SMEs; 5. They are an important aspect of regional development and are well suited to decentralised energy systems; 6. Their development is favoured by the general public, in particular for environmental reasons; 7. They contribute to solving energy and environmental problems in developing countries, and at the same time provide export opportunities for European industry, which in many cases are world leaders as regards renewable energy technologies. RENEWABLE ENERGY HAS MANY ADVANTAGES — CLEAN ENVIRONMENT, SECURE ENERGY SUPPLIES, JOBS, AND SOCIAL COHESION H.E. CHRISTOS PAPOUTSIS, European Union, RAPID, September 16, 1996. TITLE: “COMMUNITY POLICY ON RENEWABLE SOURCES OFENERGY AND THE WORLD SOLAR SUMMIT PROCESS” // VT98-acs The energy policy requirements of diversification of energy supplies and the growing concerns about our environment, are driving the need for activities in the area of renewable energy. At the same time there are many advantages of the renewable energy sources in terms of employment creation, social cohesion, local and national economic development. OUR FAILURE TO PURSUE SOLAR OPPORTUNITIES HAS CAUSED ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION, WAR, AND USE OF NUCLEAR POWER Kirkus Reviews, November 1, 1996, AUTHOR: Berman, Daniel M. & John T. O’Connor , TITLE: WHO OWNS THE SUN?: People, Politics and the Struggle for a Solar Economy // VT98-acs Two decades ago, environmentalists Berman and O’Connor write, Jimmy Carter installed a solar water heater on the White House roof, donned a cardigan, and announced that the ongoing energy crisis was ”the moral equivalent of war.” One of Ronald Reagan’s first acts as president, however, was to order the heater removed, and during his tenure Department of Energy support for research into solar buildings fell from $ 100 million to just $ 1 million. The authors maintain that subsequent administrations have been no better at exploring alternative sources of energy, leading to imbroglios like the Gulf War. They trace this problem to a number of causes, not least the political influence of oil and utilities concerns, and they argue, as have many other writers, that we have an unhealthy addiction to fossil fuels and nuclear power. ENERGY SECURITY IS THE KEY TO THE 21ST CENTURY ASIA PULSE, April 23, 1997, TITLE: WEC FORUM ON NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGY OPENS IN CHINA // VT98-acs Taking proper action to ensure energy security is of vital importance in solving energy and environmental issues, not only in this region but for the entire world, he [Toyoaki Ikuta, president of the WEC Asia Pacific Regional Forum] said, adding that this may well be a major challenge early in the 21st century. FOREIGN OIL DEPENDENCE THREATENS THE ENTIRE FABRIC OF AMERICAN SOCIETY Eric Vaughn, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, The Stuart News / Port St. Lucie News (Stuart, FL), September 18, 1996, Pg. A9, TITLE: WE NEED TO BREAK OUR OIL HABIT // VT98-acs Our foreign oil dependence also has cut hundreds of thousands of domestic jobs, cost us billions of dollars in trade, impaired air quality in our nation’s cities, jeopardized public health, stifled economic growth, and devastated our domestic energy production infrastructure. USE OF COAL DESTROYS THE ENVIRONMENT IN MANY DIFFERENT WAYS Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Despite extensive environmental regulation, ancillary effects of the coal economy include landscapes degraded by mining, air polluted by trucks and trains that transport coal, runoff from storage sites, mounds of waste ash, and costlier health care and health insurance for those who work the mines or breathe the by-products of combustion. Added to these effects is an increased threat of climate change (which may itself raise insurance premiums). HARMS CHOOSING PATH OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOLVES FOR ALL ENERGY HARMS CHOOSING THE RENEWABLE ENERGY PATH NOW IS CRUCIAL FOR OUR NATIONAL FUTURE Eric Vaughn, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, The Stuart News / Port St. Lucie News (Stuart, FL), September 18, 1996, Pg. A9, TITLE: WE NEED TO BREAK OUR OIL HABIT // VT98-acs The National Association of State Energy Officials recently reiterated its support for renewable energy. In a letter to members of the U.S. Senate, the association said: ” Renewable energy is critical to our nation’s future … we must do all we can to reduce our reliance on energy imports and diversify our energy resources.” UNLESS WE MOVE NOW TO DEVELOP RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES, THE FUTURE WILL BE BLEAK Christine Ervin, Assistant Secretary For Energy Efficiency And Renewable Energy, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Statement Before The House Appropriations Committee Interior And Related Agencies Subcommittee // VT98-acs The time to move forward in our commitment to develop a balanced energy portfolio, utilizing the most advanced and efficient energy technologies and renewable energy sources is now. If we do so, we will be able to enhance our energy security, improve our balance of trade, retain our world-class technology advantage, and secure the energy future for future generations. If we refuse to accept this challenge, we may one day be facing diminished economic opportunities, increasing health and environmental problems, underemployment, an even greater balance of trade deficit, and an uncertain energy supply. DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS IS A RECIPE FOR DISASTER — EMPHASIZING RENEWABLE ENERGY IS THE ANSWER Kirkus Reviews, March 15, 1997, AUTHOR: Berger, John J. ,TITLE: CHARGING AHEAD: The Business of Renewable Energy and What It Means for America // VT98-acs Berger (Restoring the Earth, 1985), who describes himself as a ”technological optimist,” sounds an already well-aired alarm: that America’s dependence on fossil fuels, many imported, is a recipe for financial and ecological disaster. Holding that free markets in the $ 505 billion domestic energy economy are a myth and that ”government involvement in energy is profound and unavoidable,” he calls for an active program of federal investment in renewable energy so that the country can be energyindependent in a generation or two. UNLESS WE SHIFT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY SOON, OUR GREED WILL REBOUND ON US IN VERY UGLY WAYS David Cromwell, Southampton Green Party, The Independent, March 2, 1997, Page 20, TITLE: Letter: Shell should stop extracting fossil fuels and look for sustainable alternatives // VT98-acs The underlying truth is that our society is so dependent on fossil fuels that in its greed to extract them, environmental and social concerns have been downgraded. The mounting effect will rebound on us unless we shift soon to a sustainable way of life which utilises renewable energy sources. HARMS AMERICA IS DEPENDENT ON IMPORTED OIL AMERICA IS HOOKED ON IMPORTED OIL Eric Vaughn, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, The Stuart News / Port St. Lucie News (Stuart, FL), September 18, 1996, Pg. A9, TITLE: WE NEED TO BREAK OUR OIL HABIT // VT98-acs The United States has a substance abuse problem. The substance is oil and we will do anything to get a fix. In 1970, the U.S. imported 23 percent of its petroleum needs. By 1973, the number had grown to 35 percent. Today, it is 54 percent and the Department of Energy’s Independent Energy Information Administration projects it to exceed 60 percent by 2010. FOR THE NEXT 15 YEARS THE WORLD WILL BE DEPENDENT ON OIL Energy Report, September 16, 1996, TITLE: World to become much more dependent on Persian Gulf oil, report warns // VT98-acs “For the world economy as a whole, however, oil will still be the single most important primary energy source in 2010,” the report said. [Trilateral Commission] For now and continuing for the next 15 years, oil will meet 40% of the world’s primary energy demand, though that is a drop from its 50% level in the early 1970s. GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION MUST INCREASE 42% BY 2010 TO MEET DEMAND Gustavo Gonzalez, Inter Press Service, September 13, 1996, TITLE: LATIN AMERICA: U.N. REPORT FORECASTS LARGE OIL INVESTMENTS TO 2010 // VT98-acs In summary, the structure of primary demand will not vary significantly in the first decade of the next century with respect to the varied resources, and oil and natural gas combined will account for two thirds of consumption. To satisfy that continued demand, global oil production will have to increase 42 percent by the year 2010, with “tens of billions of dollars,” according to ECLAC. [U.N. Economic Commission] USA DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED OIL IS INCREASING EDWIN S. ROTHSCHILD, energy policy director of Citizen Action, The Houston Chronicle, October 27, 1996, Pg. 4, TITLE: It’s government and Big Oil that keep U.S.hooked // VT98acs DESPITE repeated promises since 1973 by both Republican and Democratic presidents to reduce America’s dependence on foreign oil, imports now make up nearly 50 percent of our oil consumption and are expected to reach 60 percent in 10 years, according to government estimates. USA IS 50% DEPENDENT ON IMPORTED OIL, SOON TO BE 60% Oil & Gas Journal, October 14, 1996; Pg. 32, TITLE: Iogcc proposes new U.S. energy policy // VT98-acs The Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission (Iogcc) has proposed a new U.S. energy policy, claiming the nation is vulnerable to an oil supply crisis because “every effort to develop a national energy policy has failed.” It said, “As a result, the country has become dangerously dependent upon imported energy. U.S. dependency on imported oil recently reached 50% and is expected to exceed 60% early in the next century.” THE FACT THAT ONLY 9% OF USA OIL COMES FROM THE MIDDLE EAST IS HIGHLY MISLEADING — WE ARE STILL DEPENDENT ON IT BECAUSE OF THE SINGLE OIL MARKET Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Commercial Appeal (Memphis), September 22, 1996, SECTION: VIEWPOINT, Pg. 4B, TITLE: Oil habit keeps United States entangled with Iraq // VT98-acs At the center of our predicament are misconceptions about energy prices. Some people take comfort in the fact that only 9 percent of oil consumed in the United States comes from the Middle East. But this statistic is misleading because oil is bought and sold in a single global market. BY 2010 40% OF THE WORLD’S OIL WILL COME FROM THE PERSIAN GULF UNLESS WE ACT Energy Report, September 16, 1996, TITLE: World to become much more dependent on Persian Gulf oil, report warns // VT98-acs But oil demand is growing, especially in developing countries in East and South Asia. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates world oil demand will rise from the 1994 level of 68 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) to between 90 million and 97 million b/d in 2010. The percentage of that world oil demand coming out of the Persian Gulf exceeds 30% today and is expected to exceed 40% by 2010. HARMS DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED OIL SETS THE USA UP FOR SERIOUS FUTURE OIL SHOCKS 65% OF ENERGY INCREAES WILL COME FROM PERSIAN GULF OIL, SETTING US UP FOR A DAMAGING OIL SHOCK IN THE FUTURE WHEN PRICES ARE INCREASED Stefan Halper, is host of NET Television’s “World Wise” and a former White House and State Department official, The Christian Science Monitor, October 18, 1996, Pg. 18 // VT98-acs Second, the Persian Gulf, with 65 percent of the world’s oil reserves, is expected to supply up to 80 percent of the oil for the increased demand. This leaves us at risk to sudden oil price increases which have, since 1970, always been followed by recession. UNWILLINGNESS TO FUND RENEWABLE ENERGY MEANS THE USA IS HELD HOSTAGE TO EVENTS IN THE UNSTABLE PERSIAN GULF Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Commercial Appeal (Memphis), September 22, 1996, SECTION: VIEWPOINT, Pg. 4B, TITLE: Oil habit keeps United States entangled with Iraq // VT98-acs IT has been business as usual lately in the oil-rich Persian Gulf: Iraq’s assault on a Kurdish faction, America’s retaliatory strikes and the June bombing of a U.S. military barracks in Saudi Arabia. It has also been business as usual in American energy policy as well, with Congress likely to vote soon to keep federal efforts to develop oil alternatives at nearly trivial levels. As a result, our energy future will remain hostage to events in this chronically unstable region. PERSIAN GULF SUPPLIERS HAVE HUGE RESERVES AND LOW PRODUCTION COSTS — THEY WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WORLD IF IT IS DEPENDENT ON OIL Energy Report, September 16, 1996, TITLE: World to become much more dependent on Persian Gulf oil, report warns // VT98-acs “Persian Gulf exporters, with enormous reserves and low production costs, promise to be the key swing producers in meeting the world’s increased oil demand,” the report states. [Trilateral Commission] USA STRATEGIC OIL RESERVE WILL ONLY LAST 37 DAYS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. XIII The nation’s Strategic Oil Reserve contains only a 37-day oil supply. We cannot afford to be passive or complacent about energy. HARMS RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES PROTECT THE USA FROM OIL SHOCKS RENEWABLE ENERGY IS IMMUNE FROM FUTURE PRICE HIKES OR SHORTAGES JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 3 Because renewables do not use fossil fuels (most are entirely fuel free) they are largely immune to the threat of future oil or gas shortages and fossil fuel price hikes. RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN REPLACE DEPENDENCE ON MIDDLE EAST OIL Gabe G. Heller, The Palm Beach Post, October 1, 1996, Pg. 9A, TITLE: OIL CAUSES MORE TROUBLE THAN IT’S WORTH // VT98-acs We must find sources of renewable energy, such as solar power, wind power, biofuels and environment-controlled coal. Persian Gulf oil can be replaced with readily available alternatives. RENEWABLE ENERGY IS AN INSURANCE POLICY AGAINST FUTURE OIL DISRUPTIONS CongressDaily/P.M., September 23, 1996, TITLE: Despite Hostility, Renewable Energy Boosters Win A Few // VT98-acs [Congressperson] Schaefer contends that renewable energy is insurance against energy supply disruptions due to political instability. Research now avoids the need for a crash program in the future to meet an energy shortage, Schaefer said, while noting solar and renewables took the largest cut of any energy research program in FY96. He said other countries are making advances in solar and renewables, putting American competitiveness in jeopardy, and that the American public supports the program. EACH STEP TOWARDS REDUCING DEPENDENCE ON PERSIAN GULF OIL IS AN ADVANTAGE Energy Report, September 16, 1996, TITLE: World to become much more dependent on Persian Gulf oil, report warns // VT98-acs “A barrel produced or saved anywhere outside the Gulf is of benefit to all consumers in our highly interdependent, integrated global oil market,” the report said. [Trilateral Commission] FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN PROVIDE A TRANSITION AWAY FROM DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED OIL Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Washington Post, September 15, 1996, Pg. C02, TITLE: If We Kicked the Oil Habit, Saddam Wouldn’t Menace Us // VT98-acs These advances can enhance America’s energy independence directly, by fostering a domestic transition from oil. They can contribute indirectly as well by easing the coming global supply crunch — both by reducing demand in America (which currently consumes 25 percent of the world’s oil) and by showing Third World energy users that switching away from oil makes economic sense. These countries, unlike the United States, still rely heavily on oil to fuel industry. They would benefit in particular from reductions recently achieved in the price of wind and solar-generated electricity. WE WILL REMAIN ADDICTED TO PERSIAN GULF OIL UNTIL GOVERNMENT BEGINS TO STRONGLY SUPPORT RENEWABLE ENERGY Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Washington Post, September 15, 1996, Pg. C02, TITLE: If We Kicked the Oil Habit, Saddam Wouldn’t Menace Us // VT98-acs This fatalism is unjustified. Not only is Persian Gulf oil much more expensive than most Americans realize, but many alternative fuel sources are either economically competitive today or rapidly becoming so. Still, as long as Congress and the executive branch continue to short-change federal research and development of the most promising energy alternatives, we will needlessly prolong our dependence on Gulf oil. And, by default, warfighting in this ever-dangerous region will remain the heart of U.S. energy strategy. THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO MOVE AWAY FROM OIL DEPENDENCE, AND WE MUST START NOW Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Washington Post, September 15, 1996, Pg. C02, TITLE: If We Kicked the Oil Habit, Saddam Wouldn’t Menace Us // VT98-acs The only viable long-term U.S. strategy is to leave the Gulf by dramatically cutting the nation’s oil use. No one should underestimate the difficulties and costs of doing so. That is precisely why there is no more time to lose. HARMS OIL DEPENDENCY IS A HUGE ECONOMIC DRAIN ON THE USA OIL DEPENDENCY COSTS THE USA $250 BILLION IN WASTED RESOURCES JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 10 What about the current costs of our dependency on oil and other fossil fuels? We spend at least $25 billion a year for the military defense of our oil interests in the Middle East.4 Tax breaks and other government subsidies to the fossil fuel industries cost another $20 billion or so a year.5 We spend another $56 billion a year on our oil imports.6 Then we experience about $150 billion in annual damages from fossil-fuel-induced air pollution.’ The total comes to more than $250 billion a year. AMERICA SPENDS $505 BILLION A YEAR ON ENERGY, $2000 PER FAMILY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. XII Energy is essential to every phase of our lives, and we pay a princely sum for it — $505 billion a year in the United States.’ American families spend an average of $2,000 a year for their fuel and electricity. IMPORTED OIL REALLY COSTS $100 A BARREL WHEN YOU CALCULATE THE COST OF USA MILITARY COMMITMENTS Stefan Halper, is host of NET Television’s “World Wise” and a former White House and State Department official, The Christian Science Monitor, October 18, 1996, Pg. 18 // VT98-acs Moreover, the dollar cost of dependence is steep. Former Navy Secretary John Lehman points out that when one adds the $ 40 billion annual cost of our regional military presence to today’s $ 20-23 per barrel cost of crude, the cost skyrockets to about $ 100 a barrel. WE NEED TO CONSIDER THE REAL COST OF IMPORTED OIL — INCLUDING MILITARY COSTS Oil & Gas Journal, October 14, 1996; Pg. 32, TITLE: Iogcc proposes new U.S. energy policy // VT98-acs Iogcc [Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission] said the U.S. should determine the true cost of imported oil. It contends that because the U.S. military protects supply routes and fields in foreign countries at the cost of billions of dollars, it is thus subsidizing foreign producers to the detriment of domestic producers. “Iogcc is calling for a comprehensive evaluation of the cost of imported oil that reflects the hidden expenses incurred by the U.S. government. This study will be highly publicized and will be used as the basis for future decisions regarding domestic production incentives.” IMPORTED OIL ACTUALLY COSTS $100 A BARREL [NOT $23] IF YOU FIGURE IN MILITARY COSTS Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Commercial Appeal (Memphis), September 22, 1996, SECTION: VIEWPOINT, Pg. 4B, TITLE: Oil habit keeps United States entangled with Iraq // VT98-acs THE ANSWER is that the price we pay for oil is reflected not just in what the world market charges consumers and businesses for a gallon of gas or a barrel of crude. The enormous military costs of securing steady supplies of gulf oil also must be added to America’s fuel bill. The Pentagon does not officially calculate the amount it spends to defend various regions of the world. But in the mid-1980s, then-Navy Secretary John Lehman estimated that the forces devoted to gulf security cost some $ 40 billion annually. The U.S. effort has not slackened since then. Once you factor in this conservative figure, the imported oil Americans think costs them about $ 23 per barrel actually costs nearly $ 100. WE PAY 55 CENTS PER GALLON OF GASOLINE TO DEFEND THE PERSIAN GULF Eric Vaughn, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, The Stuart News / Port St. Lucie News (Stuart, FL), September 18, 1996, Pg. A9, TITLE: WE NEED TO BREAK OUR OIL HABIT // VT98-acs There are high military costs associated with our foreign oil dependence. We have recently witnessed the loss of life. Military costs to protect our foreign energy sources have been estimated at $ 35 billion per year. That is more than $ 12 for every barrel of imported oil or 55 cents per gallon of gasoline. HARMS OIL DEPENDENCY CAUSES HUGE BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT IMPORTED OIL IS RESPONSIBLE FOR 41% OF USA TRADE DEFICIT EDWIN S. ROTHSCHILD, energy policy director of Citizen Action, The Houston Chronicle, October 27, 1996, Pg. 4, TITLE: It’s government and Big Oil that keep U.S.hooked // VT98acs Since 1990, oil imports have added over $ 280 billion to America’s trade deficit, accounting for 41 percent of the total. Oil import dependence has required billions of dollars in military expenditures to protect the oil installations of the Middle East. IMPORTED OIL IS RESPONSIBLE FOR 41% OF THE BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT Eric Vaughn, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, The Stuart News / Port St. Lucie News (Stuart, FL), September 18, 1996, Pg. A9, TITLE: WE NEED TO BREAK OUR OIL HABIT // VT98-acs The dollar costs of this oil aren’t cheap. in 1994 alone, the United States spent $ 51 billion on oil imports. In 1995, oil imports added $ 48 billion to the U.S. trade deficit of almost $ 160 billion. Since 1990, oil imports have added $ 281.3 billion to America’s balance-oftrade deficit, comprising 41 percent of the nation’s total imbalance of trade. ——————————————————————————-HARMS FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY ENDS USA OIL DEPENDENCE ELIMINATING OIL SUBSIDIES AND DEVELOPING RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL REDUCE OIL IMPORTS EDWIN S. ROTHSCHILD, energy policy director of Citizen Action, The Houston Chronicle, October 27, 1996, Pg. 4, TITLE: It’s government and Big Oil that keep U.S.hooked // VT98acs To reduce oil imports, it is vital to eliminate taxpayer subsidies to foreign oil investment and to aggressively promote and develop environmentally friendly domestic energy resources and energy technologies. COST GAP BETWEEN PERSIAN GULF OIL AND RENEWABLE ENERGY IS ILLUSORY — OIL HAS MANY HIGH PRICED FEATURES, AND RENEWABLE ENERGY IS UNDERESTIMATED Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Commercial Appeal (Memphis), September 22, 1996, SECTION: VIEWPOINT, Pg. 4B, TITLE: Oil habit keeps United States entangled with Iraq // VT98-acs THIS FATALISM is unjustified. Not only is Persian Gulf oil much more expensive than most Americans realize, but also many alternative fuel sources are either economically competitive today or rapidly becoming so. HARMS OIL DEPENDENCE RISKS A WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST THE NEXT MIDDLE EAST CRISIS WILL FORCE US MILITARY INTERVENTION BECAUSE OF OIL Oil & Gas Journal, October 14, 1996; Pg. 32, TITLE: Iogcc proposes new U.S. energy policy // VT98-acs Iogcc [Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission] contends the U.S. should deal with its oil import dependence before a crisis disrupts supplies or forces military intervention. THE NEXT WAR FOR OIL WILL INVOLVE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION USED AGAINST AMERICANS Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Washington Post, September 15, 1996, Pg. C02, TITLE: If We Kicked the Oil Habit, Saddam Wouldn’t Menace Us // VT98-acs The recent U.S. missile strikes in Iraq, which our oil supplier Saudi Arabia refused to support, reveal once again the flaws in our energy policy. The pro-Western states in the Gulf are too militarily weak and internally divided to be reliable allies. The region’s political, ethnic and religious conflicts are too Byzantine for balance of power schemes concocted by Washington policymakers, no matter how farsighted and wise they may be. Our European and Japanese allies are growing ever more fickle and eager to pursue their own economic interests. And the region’s next war could see weapons of mass destruction used — against Americans. UNLESS WE BREAK FREE OF IMPORTED OIL DEPENDENCE, USA NATIONAL SECURITY IS AT RISK Eric Vaughn, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, The Stuart News / Port St. Lucie News (Stuart, FL), September 18, 1996, Pg. A9, TITLE: WE NEED TO BREAK OUR OIL HABIT // VT98-acs Our current energy policy, or lack of one, is leading this country down a dangerous road of increased oil dependence, threatening our national security and increasing the risk that more American lives will be sacrificed to satisfy our thirst for foreign oil. It is time we “just say no” – to imported oil. OUR OIL MONEY BECOMES DANGEROUS WEAPONS IN THE HANDS OF PERSIAN GULF STATES JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 9-10 Meanwhile, Persian Gulf states spend large portions of their oil revenues on weapons of war. We can easily get drawn into Middle Eastern hostilities, as demonstrated by our 1990 war with Iraq, following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. As long as we remain so heavily dependent on foreign oil, we will be vulnerable to future oil price shocks and to foreign conflicts that could disrupt oil pipelines and international tanker traffic. USA BUYS 10% OF MIDDLE EAST OIL, BUT IS FORCED TO PROVIDE THE MILITARY STRENGTH TO DEFEND ALL OF IT — WE PAY FOR OIL IN BLOOD EDWIN S. ROTHSCHILD, energy policy director of Citizen Action, The Houston Chronicle, October 27, 1996, Pg. 4, TITLE: It’s government and Big Oil that keep U.S.hooked // VT98acs The United States obtains just 10 percent of the 16.7 million barrels of oil exported from the Middle East daily yet pays nearly 100 percent of the $ 50 billion a year it costs to defend the region militarily. On top of the military expenditures, the U.S.commitment to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Arab oil-producing countries constrains America’s foreign policy and requires the stationing of thousands of young men and women in harm’s way, some of whom have given their lives for foreign oil. USA DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTED OIL MEANS THE USA HAS TO CHANGE AND ADJUST ITS FOREIGN AND MILITARY POLICY IN NEGATIVE WAYS EDWIN S. ROTHSCHILD, energy policy director of Citizen Action, The Houston Chronicle, October 27, 1996, Pg. 4, TITLE: It’s government and Big Oil that keep U.S.hooked // VT98acs Recently, retired four-star Air Force Gen. Lee Butler, who was director of strategic planning and policy for U.S. armed forces during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, told a Senate committee that “”we are paying an onerous price for this dependency, a price which goes well beyond the billions of dollars that deepen our trade deficit. The greater penalty is that it shapes, conditions, constrains and inhibits our foreign and security policy. ” HARMS OIL DEPENDENCE RISKS A WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST [P. 2] IF USA REMAINS DEPENDENT ON MIDDLE EASTERN OIL, THE REGION WILL BECOME SERIOUSLY DESTABILIZED Stefan Halper, is host of NET Television’s “World Wise” and a former White House and State Department official, The Christian Science Monitor, October 18, 1996, Pg. 18 // VT98-acs Two-thirds of the world’s known oil reserves are in the Middle East and subject to the Byzantine politics of that region. The federal Energy Information Administration projects that within 10 years the US will be spending $ 100 billion to import nearly 60 percent of the oil we need – a number that will not only fuel the area’s tensions but play havoc with our trade deficit. Los Alamos National Labs reports that total annual oil revenues to the Gulf nations will triple to $ 250 billion in 2010, delivering overall $ 1.5 trillion to the region (between now and then) with accompanying shifts in purchasing power for weapons and technology – and leaving Saudi Arabia particularly vulnerable to internal and regional pressures. US OIL POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS CONTRADICTORY — INCREASE FLOW FROM SOME, BUT STOP FLOW FROM IRAN AND IRAQ Stefan Halper, is host of NET Television’s “World Wise” and a former White House and State Department official, The Christian Science Monitor, October 18, 1996, Pg. 18 // VT98-acs And finally, consider Sen. Sam Nunn’s summation of the policy conundrum at recent Senate Armed Services hearings: “Our security policy is basically to prevent the flow of oil from certain regimes (Iraq and Iran) and the energy policy is to let the oil flow… The paradox is that to secure the free flow of oil from the Mideast, we have taken steps to limit the flow of oil from that region.” USA DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED OIL IS A RECIPE FOR NATIONAL DISASTER Stefan Halper, is host of NET Television’s “World Wise” and a former White House and State Department official, The Christian Science Monitor, October 18, 1996, Pg. 18 // VT98-acs Among the few benefits from the recent ill-considered Gulf fiasco was Defense Secretary William Perry’s reminder – two decades after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ price shocks of the ’70s – that we remain critically dependent on Gulf oil. Reagan Energy Secretary Donald Hodel warned 10 years ago that “We are sleep walking into a disaster.” Yet despite the certain knowledge that this massive strategic liability will again take a toll in American blood and treasure, partisan squabbling in Congress and the administration’s election focus have brought cuts in alternative energy programs that should, instead, be sharply increased. OIL DEPENDENCE LEADS TO WORLD DISUNITY AND USA MILITARY RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE MIDDLE EAST Gabe G. Heller, The Palm Beach Post, October 1, 1996, Pg. 9A, TITLE: OIL CAUSES MORE TROUBLE THAN IT’S WORTH // VT98-acs The United States Business and Industrial Council appears to be the first American economic organization to recognize the fact that the major source of world disunity is, in a word, oil. The Op-Ed article “Oil stalemate in the Mideast” clearly outlines the fact that if dependency on oil were eliminated, we could halt the waste of billions of dollars policing the Middle East. THE WORLD FORCES THE USA TO BEAR THE MILITARY BURDEN OF KEEPING THE OIL FLOWING Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Washington Post, September 15, 1996, Pg. C02, TITLE: If We Kicked the Oil Habit, Saddam Wouldn’t Menace Us // VT98-acs Government-funded energy research and development is a far more prudent investment in economic security than military bases in the Arabian desert. For 20 years, U.S. leaders have been trying to enlist local countries and our major treaty allies to stabilize the Gulf and, if need be, protect the region’s oil with the threat or use of military force. Yet these policies have never really produced long-term stability. The oil shock of 1973 was followed by the oil shock of 1979 created by the fall of the shah of Iran. Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 again left our oil supply vulnerable and required a U.S.-led military intervention costing billions of dollars and the lives of hundreds of allied soldiers. FAILURE TO DEVELOP RENEWABLE ENERGY MEANS THAT THE USA KEEPS FIGHTING FUTURE OIL WARS AT THE HEART OF ITS ENERGY STRATEGY Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Commercial Appeal (Memphis), September 22, 1996, SECTION: VIEWPOINT, Pg. 4B, TITLE: Oil habit keeps United States entangled with Iraq // VT98-acs Still, as long as Congress and the executive branch continue to short- change federal research and development of the most promising energy alternatives, we will needlessly prolong our dependence on gulf oil. And by default, warring in this ever-dangerous region will remain the heart of U.S. energy strategy. HARMS CURRENT FOSSIL FUEL USE WILL LEAD TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASED USE OF FOSSIL FUELS THREATENS CLIMATE CATASTROPHE IN THE NEXT CENTURY Anders Wijkman, U.N. Development Program, Business Week, April 7, 1997; Pg. 14TITLE: DON’T DEPEND ON OIL TO POWER US INTO THE NEXT CENTURY // VT98-acs Any significant rise in the use of fossil fuels will increase the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming. The potential consequences — erratic weather patterns, crop failures, and rising sea levels, to mention a few — would have serious economic and social consequences in the 21st century. POWER PLANTS PRODUCE OVER ONE THIRD OF ALL CO2 Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs It is also generally agreed that the fossil fuel cycle releases gases that are physically capable of augmenting such a “greenhouse” effect. Chief among these gases is CO2 ; in 1993, powerplants generated 36% of the CO2 produced by human activity worldwide. USA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR 25% OF ALL GLOBAL WARMING JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 14 Thanks to the size of the U.S. economy, coupled with its high-energy consumption and energy inefficiency, we are currently responsible for producing about a quarter of the worlds carbon dioxide, plus a disproportionate share of the other dangerous gases. UNLESS WE CUT BACK ON FOSSIL FUELS, WE COULD BE FACING AN 18 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 15 Yet even maintaining current levels of carbon dioxide emissions will bring about a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide within a hundred years. And if the current exponential rate of carbon dioxide emissions increase continued for an additional century, climate models predict eventual global temperature increases of as much as 18 degrees F, a situation that would cause environmental damage of grotesque proportions. NO FOSSIL FUEL BASED SYSTEM CAN AVOID HUGE AND DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs No fossil fuel economy is capable of stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere at safe levels — a primary goal of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, an international treaty ratified as of early 1996 by over 130 countries. Rather, scenarios of environmentally sustainable economic development require maturation and deployment of low-emission fuel sources. 1990 CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE GOALS BEING IGNORED JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 16 Those reductions may be a long time coming. Eight of the world’s advanced industrial nations that in 1992 signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, an international climate stabilization treaty, now appear unlikely to make even the modest reductions in carbon dioxide emissions called for in that agreement. The treaty’s 157 signatories had agreed in principle to hold carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. But most of them are still far from observing a “no regrets” energy policy that could insure against climate disruption by lowering emissions. In fact, current projections of world energy use show that ominous increase in carbon dioxide emissions are on the horizon. HARMS FOSSIL FUEL INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING WILL BE AN UNPRECEDENTED DISASTER COMING CLIMATE CHANGE WILL DISRUPT THE GLOBE Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Although many mechanisms of global climate remain murky to scientists, most agree that the effects of rapid climate change, should it occur, could be quite harsh. Rising sea levels could inundate coastal regions and island nations. Temperature shifts could spread tropical diseases such as malaria. Higher summer temperatures could increase conventional air pollution. Severe weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes could multiply. These dangers might not materialize for decades. They may develop so gradually as to be initially indistinguishable from normal, short-term fluctuations — or they may manifest themselves with unforeseen turbulence. IF GLOBAL WARMING ISN’T ADDRESSED, A STRING OF DISASTERS WILL TAKE PLACE U.S. Newswire, January 21, 1997, TITLE: Physicians Warn Clinton Global Warming Poses Health Threat // VT98-acs More than 340 prominent physicians, health professionals and scientists have signed their names to PSR’s letter, which asks the president to move forward with actions to achieve significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming. The letter cites mounting evidence that climate change on the scale currently projected would have pervasive adverse impacts on human health and result in significant loss of life. Potential impacts include: increased death and illness due to heat stress and worsened air pollution; the re-emergence and spread of infections and food-and water-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and cholera; expanding populations of pest species; impaired food production and increasing malnutrition; and extreme weather events such as floods and droughts. GLOBAL WARMING MUST BE A TOP NATIONAL PRIORITY U.S. Newswire, January 21, 1997, TITLE: Physicians Warn Clinton Global Warming Poses Health Threat // VT98-acs Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR), an organization of 20,000 physicians and health professionals, has sent a letter to President Clinton telling him that global warming poses a real health threat and urging him to take prompt and effective action. “We call on the president at the start of his second term,” said Robert K. Musil, Ph.D., executive director of PSR, “to ensure that global warming will be at the top of his domestic and international agenda. The time for study is over. The public health threat is real.” HUMAN INDUCED CLIMATE CHANGE THREATENS US IN THE 21ST CENTURY Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs In 1995, over 300 scientists and economists representing 120 governments on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agreed that “the balance of evidence… suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” through the production of greenhouse emissions.14 The IPCC forecasts a rise in global temperature of between 1.8 and 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 due to the greenhouse effect. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE WILL COME WHEN IT IS TOO LATE TO DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Most important, the effects of climate change may first appear when it is too late to forestall their extreme consequences. Unlike conventional pollutants, CO2 lingers in the atmosphere for many decades, meaning that actions taken to diminish the risks of climate change will take effect several years after their introduction. GLOBAL WARMING WILL DEVASTATE OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC SYSTEMS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 13-14 The consequences of planetary overheating are well recognized by the scientific community, and are well described elsewhere. Suffice it to say that sea level would rise from the melting of polar ice and from thermal expansion of the oceans. Changes would occur in the circulation of upper atmospheric winds as well as in ocean currents, leading to violent stones, prolonged droughts in some regions, and catastrophic floods in coastal areas. Offshore, deep seas could stagnate, zooplankton could decline, and massive die-offs of higher sea life could take place Populations of edible fish could plummet, and coral reefs could die. HARMS RENEWABLE ENERGY IS AN EFFECTIVE RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING IF GLOBAL WARMING IS COMING, RENEWABLE ENERGY IS OUR ONLY HOPE OF SALVATION JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 17 If global warming is indeed the menace that the vast majority of scientists believe, then efficiency and renewables are not just our best hope; they are the world’s only hope: EXPANSION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IS A PROTECTION AGAINST GLOBAL CLIMATE CATASTROPHE JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 16-17 The way to meet these rapidly swelling demands without overtaxing environmental systems or inflicting economic pain is through a major expansion in our reliance on energy efficiency technology and renewable energy. Those partners are the most practical way to cut emissions as drastically as they must be cut. Odd as it may sound, codevelopment of efficiency and renewables is a planetary insurance policy to protect against possible global climate catastrophe. REDUCING C02 EMISSIONS BELOW 1990 LEVELS WILL ALLOW US TO REDUCE TOTAL GLOBAL C02 CONCENTRATIONS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 15-16 Only by significantly reducing carbon dioxide emissions to below 1990 levels can we begin to bring down atmospheric concentrations The prestigious Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a 2500 member scientific body states that no matter what we do now the average world temperature is inexorably going to get 1-3.6 degrees F hotter because of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere from the burning of hydrocarbons. The IPCC has also concluded that carbon dioxide emissions must be cut by 60 percent just to stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations at present levels Obviously it is imperative that the nations of the world immediately begin serious efforts to make major emissions reductions. EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE GREENHOUSE GASES OXY-FUEL NEWS, December 16, 1996, TITLE: CHANGING GLOBAL CLIMATE POLICY COULD OPEN DOORS FOR OXY-FUELS // VT98-acs “Through the aggresive employment of well-established, as well as emerging energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, significant reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions can be realized in every sector at little to no cost to the economy,” said the Sustainable Energy Coalition in a recent letter to President Clinton. RENEWABLE ENERGY MUST BE DEVELOPED NOW AS A SOLUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING Utility Environment Report, February 28, 1997: Pg. 1, TITLE: INDUSTRY ‘WELCOMES’ ECONOMISTS’ CALL FOR ACTION TO COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE // VT98-acs The statement was drafted by five economists, including Nobel Prize winners Kenneth Arrow of Stanford University and Robert Solow of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. It says the risks of global climate change are significant enough that ”preventative steps” are justified, and that studies have determined reducing fossil fuel use in favor of cleaner energy technologies can raise U.S. living standards as well as those of developing nations. RENEWABLE ENERGY IS THE ONLY WAY TO EFFECTIVELY PREVENT CLIMATE CHANGE Graeme Smith; The Herald (Glasgow), April 10, 1997: Pg. 7, TITLE: Greenpeace in rooftop solar protest // VT98-acs Mr Marcus Rand, the organisation’s solar campaigner. ” Renewable energy such as solar is the only way to prevent climate change. BP cannot simply ignore that fact for the sake of profits from oil. ” TO AVOID GLOBAL WARMING WE MUST BEGIN PHASING OUT FOSSIL FUELS Graeme Smith; The Herald (Glasgow), April 10, 1997: Pg. 7, TITLE: Greenpeace in rooftop solar protest // VT98-acs It [Greenpeace] said that to preserve the already changing climate the world must begin phasing out the use of fossil fuels to reduce emissions of CO2, the gas responsible for changing the climate. HARMS CURRENT ENERGY SYSTEM CAUSES HARMFUL AIR POLLUTION CURRENT ENERGY SYSTEM IS THE CAUSE OF MURDEROUS AIR POLLUTION Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs Given our past energy choices, we are faced today with a tremendous burden of energyrelated pollution. Fine particles, 2.5 microns or less in size, are chiefly produced by coalfired power plants and by combustion of fossil fuels in transportation and manufacturing. More than 90% of sulfur dioxide emissions are energy related, coming primarily from the burning of coal and oil in utility and industrial operations. Nearly 90% of carbon monoxide emissions are energy related, mostly from vehicular traffic. More than 95% of nitrogen dioxide emissions are derived from fossil fuel combustion arising principally from motor vehicles, power plants, and industrial sources. Ozone is not emitted directly but is a by product, principally of emissions of volatile organic compounds (more than 90% of which are energy related, mostly from vehicles, and industrial processes) and of oxides of nitrogen. 1 VAST MAJORITY OF HARMFUL AIR POLLUTANTS ARE PRODUCED BY ENERGY SYSTEMS Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs In the past few years, a number of major studies and survey reports have documented the growing body of evidence establishing the link between air pollution and public health. What is less well known is that the vast majority of the pollutants most clearly linked to increased morbidity and mortality are energy related. In 1994, energy-related emissions such as those from power plants, vehicles, and industry – accounted for more than 90% of emissions of sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, and for most of the smallest particulates (under 2.5 microns in diameter). 1,2 ENERGY CHOICES TODAY WILL DETERMINE THE ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH OF THE FUTURE Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs Energy choices made in the United States over the last several decades in manufacturing, transportation, and construction are having a significant effect on today’s air quality. Likewise, the energy choices and investments that we make today will have profound consequences for future environmental quality, which should be of great concern to public health professionals. ENERGY IS THE BIGGEST POLLUTER OF ALL, SO NEW ENERGY POLICIES MUST FOCUS ON POLLUTION PREVENTION Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs The production and use of energy does more environmental damage than any other economic activity. In a world of ever-increasing population seeking an ever-increasing standard of living, reconciling environmental, public health, and economic goals will require that we use our resources much more efficiently. Instead of controlling the effects of pollution after it is already generated, we must take a new approach to pollution, one that is familiar to the public health community but has not been the traditional approach in the environmental field: prevent it from occurring in the first place. E AMOUNTS OF AIR POLLUTION Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs Our energy choices in a number of sectors of the economy have had a profound effect on air quality and public health. Consider transportation. An average car travels some 100,000 miles over its life, consuming over 3000 gallons of gasoline and discharging tons of air pollutants. Vehicles are responsible for a large fraction of the air pollution in urban areas around the world. That will only worsen as the world’s fleet of 500 million cars doubles to one billion cars by 2030. AIR POLLUTION KILLS, CURRENT ENERGY USE CAUSES IT, AND RENEWABLE ENERGY IS THE SOLUTION TO IT Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs Air pollution causes severe public health problems, and the vast majority of air pollution is energy related. The nation and the world will be experiencing large increases in energy use in the coming decades. If this increase is achieved through traditional resource- and pollution-intensive methods, environment problems at an urban, regional, and global level will be seriously aggravated, at a terrible cost to human health and quality of life. HARMS CURRENT ENERGY SYSTEM CAUSES HARMFUL AIR POLLUTION [P. 2] POWER PLANTS PRODUCE THE MAJORITY OF AIR POLLUTION Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs In 1993, power plants were responsible for 72 percent of all sulfur dioxide emissions in the U.S. They also contributed 33 percent of all nitrogen oxide emissions and 32 percent of all emissions of particulate matter. Of the nation’s emission’s of mercury, a toxic heavy metal, 23 percent came from power generation in 1993…. Moreover, powerplants represent the source of 36 percent of all [human] 1993 emissions of carbon dioxide, a dominant greenhouse gas. RELYING ON FOSSIL FUELS FOR ENERGY GROWTH MEANS AN ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Current trends indicate that they will satisfy most of this demand by burning fossil fuels -i.e., coal, oil and natural gas. If so, the environmental implications are grave. For several decades, policy-makers and scientists have acknowledged the links between fossil fuels, acid rain, air pollution and human health. Recent medical research indicates that energyrelated pollution threatens human health even more than previously suspected. A yet more severe peril arises from the contribution of fossil fuels to the danger of climate change; producing, distributing and using fossil fuels releases voluminous amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2 ), the most important of the heat-trapping pollutants known as greenhouse gases. 22% OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION LIVES IN AREAS POISONED BY FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, October 21, 1996, TITLE: SLANTS & TRENDS-SOLAR POLLUTION PREVENTION // VT98-acs The simplest way for developing countries to curb problems with airborne particulate matter in large cities is to adopt renewable energy sources and move away from fossil fuels, Andrew Steer of the World Bank said to the recent Florida Environmental Conference and Exposition in Tampa. Twenty-two percent of the world’s population lives in areas where the air is unhealthy due to particulate matter from burning fossil fuels without adequate pollution control, he said. MORE THAN A BILLION PEOPLE ARE EXPOSED TO HORRIFIC AIR POLLUTION Curtis A. Moore, Director of International Programs for the American Lung Association, February, 1997; DYING NEEDLESSLY: SICKNESS AND DEATH DUE TO ENERGY-RELATED AIR POLLUTION; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs The best estimates are that more than a billion people live in urban areas with unhealthful levels of air pollution. 27 MILLION CHILDREN ARE THREATENED BY CURRENT LEVELS OF AIR POLLUTION Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs A 1993 study by the American Lung Association estimated children with asthma and more than eight million people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease lived in areas that exceeded the Federal health standard for ozone. As many as 27 million children under the age of 13 and nearly two million children with asthma are exposed to potentially unhealthfull levels of ozone. 14 HARMS AIR POLLUTION FROM CURRENT ENERGY SYSTEM KILLS -CAUSALITY IS PROVEN LINK BETWEEN AIR POLLUTION AND DEATH IS ABSOLUTELY PROVEN Curtis A. Moore, Director of International Programs for the American Lung Association, February, 1997; DYING NEEDLESSLY: SICKNESS AND DEATH DUE TO ENERGY-RELATED AIR POLLUTION; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs The evidence that particulate pollution kills is “absolutely complete,” according to Dr. David Bates, a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and former Dean of the Medical School of the University of British Columbia. AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE IS PROVEN TO CAUSE HUGE MORTALITY INCREASES Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs In 1995, another study by the American Cancer Society and Harvard Medical School, involving over 550,000 people living in 151 cities tracked for more than seven years, found a 17% increase in mortality risks in areas with higher concentrations of fine particles relative to those in areas with lower concentrations. Researchers also found a 15% increase in mortality, risks in areas with higher concentrations of sulfite aerosols. The risk of death from cardiopulmonary. disease was 31% higher in the most polluted cities. For subjects who had never smoked, the increased risk of premature death from cardiopulmonary disease was 43%. For women who resided in the more polluted cities and had never smoked the risk of cardiopulmonary disease increased 57%. 11 DIRECT LINEAR RELATIONSHIP EXISTS BETWEEN MORTALITY RATES AND AIR POLLUTION RATES Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs In 1993, Harvard researchers published results of a 16-year, six-city study that tracked the health of over 8000 individuals for a period of 14 to 16 years. Researchers observed a nearly linear relationship between particle concentrations in the air and increased mortality rates, indicating that even relatively low levels of air pollution fine particles) contributed to adverse health effects. The risk of early death in high-level areas was 26% higher than in areas with the lowest levels of pollution, even after controlling for other risk factors such as smoking and occupation The study found that the risk of cardiopulmonary disease in high level areas was 37% higher than in low level areas. 10 HARMS AIR POLLUTION MAIMS AND KILLS MANY AMERICANS CURRENT AIR POLLUTIONS KILLS OVER 50,000 PEOPLE A YEAR, AND RENEWABLE ENERGY IS THE SOLUTION PR Newswire, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Americans Are Dying Needlessly From Air Pollution; Renewable Energy Can Make A Difference // VT98-acs America’s air is getting cleaner, but “cleaner” may not be clean enough. According to Curtis Moore, an expert on pollution control technology, there is compelling medical evidence that even legal levels of air pollution kill and sicken millions of Americans. “In the United States alone, air pollution kills over 50,000 persons a year — a death toll higher than traffic accidents, breast cancer, or AIDS,” says Moore. “Clean renewable energy technologies can help resolve our air quality problems, but so far they have received inadequate attention from policymakers.” AIR POLLUTION MEANS JUST BREATHING CAN KILL YOU — AND TENS OF THOUSANDS DIE EACH YEAR Curtis A. Moore, Director of International Programs for the American Lung Association, February, 1997; DYING NEEDLESSLY: SICKNESS AND DEATH DUE TO ENERGY-RELATED AIR POLLUTION; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs In countless cities worldwide and throughout much of the countryside, the air is so polluted that the simple act of breathing can be fatal. In some cases, the harm inflicted by air pollution on the human body is clear and direct; in others, it weakens the body, leaving it susceptible to other ailments. In the United States alone, air pollution kills over 50,000 persons a year-a death toll higher than that of traffic accidents, breast cancer, or AIDS. 64,000 DIE EACH YEAR FROM AIR POLLUTION, EACH OF US LIVING IN A CITY WITH AIR POLLUTION LIVE ONE TO TWO YEARS LESS Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs A 1996 meta-analysis by the Natural Resources Defense Counsel (NRDC) extrapolated the results of the earlier epidemiological studies to estimate the extent of premature death due to particulate air pollution in 239 U.S. cities The NRDC study estimated that 64,000 people may die prematurely from heart and lung disease attributable to particulate air pollution, with lives being shortened an average of one to two years in the most polluted cities. 11 A 90% INCREASE IN ASTHMA DEATHS INDICATES THE DANGERS OF AIR POLLUTION Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs The cost to the nation is great, in terms of lives as well as economic costs. Deaths from asthma have increased more than 90% since 1979. The annual direct health care cost of asthma is approximately $ 6.9 billion. 3 Indirect costs, such as lost productivity, have been quantified at about $ 2.6 billion, with asthma accounting for an estimated three million lost THE ELDERLY ARE AT RISK FROM AIR POLLUTION Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs The elderly are at risk. Older people often are frailer and weaker and significantly less resistant to infection than they were earlier in fife. Some lung function decline appears to be part of the natural aging process. Air pollutants aggravate susceptibilities to influenza and pneumonia, of which older people are the primary victims. Many elders suffer chronic respiratory or heart conditions that may be markedly worsened by the effects of air pollution. A number of epidemiological studies have linked particulate matter with premature death and hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory problems in the elderly. 41-44 Over 11 million elderly people in the United States live in areas with unhealthy exposure to particulate matter. COMMUNITIES OF COLOR ARE MORE AT RISK FROM AIR POLLUTION Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs Minorities are at risk. A disproportionate number of African Americans and Hispanics, because of their concentration in central city areas, are particularly hard hit by ambient air pollution. Thirty-one percent of Hispanics, 20% of African Americans, and only 12% of whites live in the 29 U.S. counties designated as nonattainment areas for three or more key pollutants. 39 Thus it is not surprising that minorities are disproportionately affected by asthma. In 1993, the prevalence rate of asthma among African Americans was 22.3% higher than among whites. Although African Americans represent 12.4% of the U.S. population (one in eight), they account for 21% (one in five) of deaths due to asthma. And African Americans are four times as likely as whites to be hospitalized for asthma. 40 HARMS FOSSIL FUELS PRODUCE MANY POLLUTANTS, ALL DEADLY PARTICULATES FROM ENERGY COMBUSTION KILL HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS EACH YEAR Curtis A. Moore, Director of International Programs for the American Lung Association, February, 1997; DYING NEEDLESSLY: SICKNESS AND DEATH DUE TO ENERGY-RELATED AIR POLLUTION; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Today, most harmful air-borne particulates are by-products of combustion in motor vehicles, powerplants and industry. Multiple studies show that as particulate pollution rises, so, too, do sickness and death. If levels of particulates in 8 developing countries were reduced to meet World Health Organization standards, between 300,000 and 700,000 premature deaths per year could be avoided. 20 MILLION AMERICANS ARE THREATENED BY CARBON MONOXIDE POLLUTION Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs Nearly 20 million people are exposed to harmful, nonfatal levels of CO, causing a wide variety of ailments including headaches, nausea, fatigue, dizziness, and exacerbation of various heart conditions including the onset of heart attacks. 8 Moreover, it is believed to impose an extra burden on those already suffering from anemia and chronic lung disease. 8,9 URBAN AIR POLLUTION CAUSES CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs Carbon monoxide. When carbon monoxide is inhaled, it is absorbed by the blood more readily than oxygen and causes body tissues to be deprived of oxygen. Carbon monoxide (CO) combines chemically with hemoglobin, the oxygen-transporting element of human blood, at a rate far greater than that of oxygen itself. 24,25 At high levels, death is certain. 9 Studies show that exposure to 10 parts per million of CO for approximately eight hours may dull mental performance. 18 Such levels of CO are commonly found in cities throughout the world. In heavy traffic situations, levels of 70, 80, or 100 parts per million are not uncommon. CARBON MONOXIDE FROM ENERGY USE MAIMS AND KILLS Curtis A. Moore, Director of International Programs for the American Lung Association, February, 1997; DYING NEEDLESSLY: SICKNESS AND DEATH DUE TO ENERGY-RELATED AIR POLLUTION; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Carbon Monoxide At high levels, carbon monoxide (CO) kills and cripples without warning. A gas that is not only invisible but odorless and tasteless, carbon monoxide displaces oxygen in the blood, effectively starving the heart, brain and other vital organs. Developing babies seem particularly vulnerable to carbon monoxide. Oxygen displacement in fetuses is roughly 50 percent higher than in their mothers. Carbon-rich fuels-gasoline or coal, for example-produce carbon monoxide when burned incompletely by out-of-tune or poorly designed engines or furnaces. Motor vehicles, mostly cars, account for two-thirds of carbon monoxide emissions in the U.S. Carbon monoxide levels are highest in cities, where cars are concentrated. Almost 55 million people live in areas that violate EPA’s current standard for carbon monoxide. Commuters, whether in cars, buses or bicycles, are heavily exposed. Carbon monoxide can be virtually eliminated by using zero-emitting vehicles powered by batteries or fuel cells; or reduced by using more efficient engines, tuning them properly, or using catalytic converters or other pollution control devices. SULFUR DIOXIDE VICTIMIZES ASTHMATICS, SPECIFICALLY CHILDREN Curtis A. Moore, Director of International Programs for the American Lung Association, February, 1997; DYING NEEDLESSLY: SICKNESS AND DEATH DUE TO ENERGY-RELATED AIR POLLUTION; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Asthmatics, particularly children, are highly vulnerable to sulfur dioxide. Asthma, which is the leading cause of chronic illness in children, renders its victims especially sensitive to pollution. An asthmatic child or adult exposed to sulfur dioxide can be doubled over gasping for breath within minutes. Between four and five percent of the American population is asthmatic, and incidence of the disease is climbing sharply, both in the United States and globally. Physiologically, sulfur dioxide triggers a sudden swelling in airway tissue that chokes off breathing. Some SO is scrubbed from the air by nasal passages, but an exercising asthmatic-one climbing as few as three flights of stairs-or one with a cold or the flu, tends to breathe through the mouth, bypassing this line of defense and increasing susceptibility to pollution-triggered attacks. HARMS RENEWABLE ENERGY IS THE ANSWER TO HARMFUL AIR POLLUTION RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN DRAMATICALLY REDUCE AIR POLLUTION Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs What is exciting about the emergence of renewable energy and fuel cells as major providers of energy is the possibility of realizing the dream of nearly pollution-free energy in the coming decades, at prices competitive with traditional power plants. As is the case with most longer-term research and development efforts, we cannot know for sure today which specific energy technologies win be successful, which is why the Department pursues a variety of paths simultaneously. We can only be sure that there will be a multitrilliondollar market for advanced power generation technologies in the coming decades and that environmental and public health concerns will increasingly be factored into decisions about what kind of power to use. WE CAN’T JUST CLEAN UP POLLUTION, WE MUST PREVENT IT BY CHANGING ENERGY COURSES Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs In the face of such growth in energy demand, we can no longer pursue only the traditional approach to the environment: cleaning up pollution after the fact or safely disposing of it in the land, water, or atmosphere. We need to dramatically reduce or prevent pollution from occurring in the first place, in the generation of electricity and in the use of energy in transportation, industry, and buildings. UNLESS WE CHANGE TO RENEWABLE ENERGY NOW, WE WILL FACE HUGE INCREASES IN AIR POLLUTION HARMS Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs The conclusions are clear. Air pollution has numerous and severe adverse public health impacts. If we are to prevent those impacts, we must make our energy production and consumption more efficient and cleaner. Moreover, we must act soon. While energy use was flat in the 1980s, and some energy-related emissions (such as SO.sub.2 emissions) have declined due to the Clean Air Act, U.S. energy consumption has risen 15% since 1990, fueled by population and economic growth, and some energy-related emissions (for example, NO.sub.x ) have begun to rise. The Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. energy consumption will rise by a third over the next two decades. Globally, population growth, urbanization, and industrialization, especially in the developing world, are combining to create an explosion in energy consumption and energy-related emissions. Worldwide energy use could double over the next three to four decades. RENEWABLE ENERGY PROVIDE ECONOMIC SAVINGS AND A REDUCTION IN POLLUTION Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs DOE has the single largest set of resource efficiency and pollution prevention investments in the world. These investments not only help the environment by preventing the emission of millions of tons of pollution, they lower the cost of using energy, thereby saving consumers and businesses billions of dollars a year. In other words, these technologies achieve net economic savings for society, and we get emission reductions and improved public health as a free benefit. HARMFUL AIR POLLUTION COMES FROM ENERGY GENERATION, AND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES WOULD SOLVE THE PROBLEM PR Newswire, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Americans Are Dying Needlessly From Air Pollution; Renewable Energy Can Make A Difference // VT98-acs New medical evidence of sickness and death due to air pollution is driving the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to tighten air quality standards on ozone and particulate matter (soot and smoke). These pollutants, which are particularly dangerous to human health, result in great part from the burning of fossil fuels — in cars, power plants and factories. Wind turbines, geothermal plants, solar thermal generators and photovoltaic panels are commercially available today, and can produce clean electricity at a reasonable cost while reducing the use of fossil fuels. WITHOUT INCREASE USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, PROPOSED CLEAN AIR ACT STANDARDS CANNOT BE MET PR Newswire, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Americans Are Dying Needlessly From Air Pollution; Renewable Energy Can Make A Difference // VT98-acs The EPA estimates that its proposed new standards would prevent thousands of premature deaths per year, and eliminate 250,000 annual cases of serious respiratory problems in children. To meet stronger air quality goals, renewable energy technologies must play an integral part in the implementation strategies. “The reasons for pursuing renewable energy are grounded firmly in the value of human life,” says Moore [Curtis Moore, an expert on pollution control technology, American Lung Association]. “The primary obstacles are economic and political.” RENEWABLE ENERGY IS THE ANSWER TO HARMFUL AIR POLLUTION [P. 2] RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN MEET STRINGENT HEALTH STANDARDS FOR AIR POLLUTION Curtis A. Moore, Director of International Programs for the American Lung Association, February, 1997; DYING NEEDLESSLY: SICKNESS AND DEATH DUE TO ENERGY-RELATED AIR POLLUTION; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Equally important, it may be possible to meet more stringent health standards, at least in the electric energy sector, at reasonable cost through the use of innovative, low-emission renewable energy technologies. RENEWABLE ENERGY IS THE ANSWER TO THE DEATHS AND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION Curtis A. Moore, Director of International Programs for the American Lung Association, February, 1997; DYING NEEDLESSLY: SICKNESS AND DEATH DUE TO ENERGY-RELATED AIR POLLUTION; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Yet, compelling evidence exists that air pollution-legal air pollution-still kills and sickens millions of Americans. Motor vehicles and powerplants release the vast majority of that pollution, although factories also play a major role. The common link between these sources is that all three produce energy by burning fossil fuel. Renewable energy technologies could reduce air pollution in two major ways. First, several renewable technologies commercially available today can produce clean electricity. These include wind turbines, geothermal plants, solar thermal generators, photovoltaic panels and others. Second, that clean electricity can be stored in batteries and used to run clean vehicles. Electric cars are just reaching the market, although, of course, their environmental advantage is greatly diminished if the electricity used to charge their batteries originates at a coal-burning powerplant. In the future, electricity generated from renewable energy may be used to produce hydrogen, a clean energy carrier able to power vehicles and other devices; several analysts posit a renewable-hydrogen economy as the ideal endpoint of our search for an environmentally benign, replenishable energy system. OZONE REDUCTION MUST COME FROM THE ENERGY SECTOR Curtis A. Moore, Director of International Programs for the American Lung Association, February, 1997; DYING NEEDLESSLY: SICKNESS AND DEATH DUE TO ENERGY-RELATED AIR POLLUTION; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Ozone can be reduced by curbing emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO ) from x powerplants, cars and trucks; and reducing hydrocarbons, principally from gasoline and industrial solvents. HARMS UTILITY DEREGULATION WILL INCREASE THE PROBLEMS OF AIR POLLUTION UTILITY DEREGULATION WILL INCREASE THE USE OF THE DIRTIEST COAL WALTER SIMPSON, Western New York Sustainable Energy Association, The Buffalo News, April 9, 1997, Pg. 2B, TITLE: Electric-Power Deregulation Is Coming, But It Needn’t Mean Accepting A Dirtier Environment // VT98-acs Electric industry restructuring could increase air pollution if efficiency is slighted and if dirty coal is allowed to make a comeback. Retail competition could bring more business to coalburning power plants in the Midwest. UTILITY DEREGULATION WILL INCREASE THE USE OF THE OLDEST, DIRTIEST GENERATING PLANTS PR Newswire, April 17, 1997, TITLE: Texans Want Deregulation to Reduce Electric Pollution and Increase Use of Renewable Energy, According to New Poll // VT98-acs According to Tom (Smitty) Smith of Public Citizen, “Texas power plants produce 34% of all the industrial air pollution that is causing damage to health and three-fourths of that or 25% of the total industrial air pollution is produced by the 13 dirtiest coal plants in Texas. Without adequate controls in a deregulated world, the old plants which are the cheapest to run would be used more, increasing pollution in Texas cities.” DEGREGULATION OF ELECTRIC UTILITIES POSES HUGE POLLUTION RISKS WALTER SIMPSON, Western New York Sustainable Energy Association, The Buffalo News, April 9, 1997, Pg. 2B, TITLE: Electric-Power Deregulation Is Coming, But It Needn’t Mean Accepting A Dirtier Environment // VT98-acs A stealth campaign is now under way to deregulate and restructure the electric industry, permitting open competition and other changes. This process, facilitated by federal legislation, is moving ahead swiftly in New York without the benefit of public participation. Unlike the deregulation of other industries, restructuring the electric industry could have huge environmental consequences. Electric generation is responsible for the lion’s share of air pollution: global warming-producing carbon dioxide emissions and acid rain-producing sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions. Yet the big corporations pushing deregulation don’t care about environmental consequences. All they want is lower rates. UTILITY DEREGULATION COULD SERIOUSLY INCREASE AIR POLLUTION WALTER SIMPSON, Western New York Sustainable Energy Association, The Buffalo News, April 9, 1997, Pg. 2B, TITLE: Electric-Power Deregulation Is Coming, But It Needn’t Mean Accepting A Dirtier Environment // VT98-acs Moreover, despite overwhelming public support for environmental programs, plans to restructure the electric industry may increase air pollution and seriously set back energy conservation and efficiency efforts. HARMS SWITCH TO RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL BENEFIT THE DEVELOPING WORLD AS WELL HUGE ENERGY CRISIS EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD, THERE ISN’T MUCH LEFT FOR THEM AFTER THE DEVELOPED NATIONS GET DONE GUZZLING Mail and Guardian (Johannesburg), Africa News, September 27, 1996, TITLE: Africa-at-Large; Energy Crisis In The Third World (Commentary) // VT98-acs We live in a solar-powered world, yet nearly two-and-a-half billion people are desperately short of energy with which to improve their existence. There are two energy crises: the one we know about, in which 21% of the world’s population guzzles 70% of the world’s commercial energy output, mostly in the form of pollution-causing fossil fuels. The other energy crisis is barely perceived, and the proceedings of the United Nations World Solar Summit, which grappled with it over two days last week, have barely been reported. It is the crisis in which 40% of the world’s population still live at a basic subsistence level without any form of electricity. This is just as big a challenge as tackling the new world food shortage or the greenhouse effect – and is linked to both of them too. RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR THE DEVELOPING WORLD WILL SOLVE MOST OF THE PROBLEMS PEOPLE FACE THERE Federico Mayor, UNESCO Courier, February, 1997: Pg. 40; TITLE: Energy for all; development of environment-friendly energy sources // VT98-ACS It is estimated that 2.4 billion people today have no regular access to electricity. The lack of a reliable means of heating and lighting the homes, clinics and schools of some 40 per cent of the world’s population – living mainly in rural or remote areas of the developing world acts as a significant brake on the development process. In such areas, people – more often than not women and children – are obliged to make long journeys to find drinking water and fuelwood. Renewable energy electrification would help meet the basic needs of isolated populations in terms of heat, light, the pumping and purification of freshwater, educational opportunities, basic communications, medical care, income-generating rural activities and improved agricultural methods and techniques – in short, all those facilities we think of as necessary for a healthy, developing community. RENEWABLE ENERGY IS THE ONLY POSSIBILITY FOR SAFELY MEETING THE ENERGY NEEDS OF THE DEVELOPING WORLD Mail and Guardian (Johannesburg), Africa News, September 27, 1996, TITLE: Africa-at-Large; Energy Crisis In The Third World (Commentary) // VT98-acs Meeting the energy deficit for the poor 40% of the world by conventional means is vastly expensive and will only add to pollution. Nuclear power is prohibitive for a poor country and we are now well aware of its hidden costs. To provide fossil fuels to this huge clientele would run down resources and increase environmental damage: poor countries cannot afford the pollution- reducing frills of the developed world. The use of wood and charcoal has already devastated forests, but can only be slowed down if there is an affordable substitute. The most obvious resource is the enormously powerful one above our heads, and the related renewable sources of wind and tide. Yet investment in renewable energy research is marginal. WITHOUT INCREASED ENERGY SUPPLIES POPULATION GROWTH WILL BECOME UNMANAGEABLE Heinrich von Pierer, chairman of Siemens AG, Power Engineering, October, 1996; Pg. 58; TITLE: Efficiency improvements are critical for a bright tomorrow // VT98-acs Today, roughly 20 percent of the world’s population consumes about 80 percent of the total generated power, and 80 percent of the population shares the remainder. This imbalance is being further exacerbated by the fact that population growth is highest in those regions with the least developed power base. The message is clear: Without a steady improvement in living conditions and power supplies in developing nations, population growth will not be manageable. DEVELOPED NATIONS CAN BENEFIT FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY AS WELL Federico Mayor, UNESCO Courier, February, 1997: Pg. 40; TITLE: Energy for all; development of environment-friendly energy sources // VT98-ACS Industrialized countries can profit from the incorporation of renewable energies into their national energy programmes. Denmark, for example, today produces 3.5 per cent of its electricity from wind, at a cost that is competitive with traditional fossil fuels. GREEN PRICING BARRIERS TO GREEN PRICING CURRENTLY EXIST CONSUMERS WANT RENEWABLE ENERGY, BUT IT IS GETTING HARDER TO FIND IT AGIS SALPUKAS, The New York Times, March 9, 1997, Section 4; Page 5; TITLE: Inheriting the Wind; Green Power Wanes, but Not at the Grass Roots // VT98-acs Consumers want the option of using more green power, but it has become harder to get. “America gets less electricity from solar, wind and geothermal today than it did five years ago,” said Ralph Cavanagh, the energy program director of the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group. GREEN PRICING PLANS HAVE FALLEN VICTIM TO REGIONALISM AND HIGH PRICES James R. Udall, Sierra, January 11, 1997; Pg. 26; TITLE: Power to the people; are you willing to pay more for clean energy? // VT98-acs Sadly, existing green pricing programs also include a on wind number of lemons that seem designed to fail. Wisconsin Electric, for example, was excoriated by environmentalists when it proposed to charge people extra to import power from Canadian hydro and Minnesota wood-waste plants rather than build renewable sources in-state. (The point of green pricing, after all, is to establish new, cleaner sources of energy — not just to reallocate existing ones.) And Detroit Edison offered solar power at a nosebleedingly high price of 56 cents per kilowatt-hour — and then wondered why it was so hard to recruit 200 participants. MANY BARRIERS WILL PRECLUDE EXPANSION OF GREEN PRICING FOR WIND POWER James R. Udall, Sierra, January 11, 1997; Pg. 26; TITLE: Power to the people; are you willing to pay more for clean energy? // VT98-acs The price of wind and solar power has fallen dramatically in recent years. Although not the cheapest forms of new power, they are increasingly competitive. Expanding on the Traverse City model, however, may prove challenging. Although most utilities have barely begun to tap their renewable energy opportunities, not all have a wind site, and many face considerable bureaucratic friction. (“Never underestimate the billing department’s resistance to change,” says one utility insider.) GREEN PRICING GREEN PRICING ALLOWS UTILITY CUSTOMERS TO CHOOSE TO BUY RENEWABLE ENERGY AS PART OF THEIR ELECTRICITY SUPPLY GREEN PRICING MEANS PAYING A LITTLE EXTRA TO GET ENERGY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs The third policy response to proposals of retail choice is , associated most notably with David Moskovitz of the Regulatory Assistance Project (and formerly a Maine utility commissioner). Moskovitz notes customers may wish to give additional support to renewables. Green pricing schemes allow these people to pay a voluntary premium on their electric bills to purchase renewable energy beyond what utilities and regulators UTILITIES HELP THEMSELVES BY OFFERING RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS PR Newswire, January 31, 1997, TITLE: Dakota Electric Files Plan with Utilities Commission to Offer its Customers Renewable Energy Option // VT98-acs Will Kaul, director of transmission and environmental services for CP. “By providing optional renewable energy programs, we’re providing a product that consumers want and is beneficial to the environment,” Kaul added. “We’re also working together to position our cooperatives as energy suppliers of choice in what may be a more competitive marketplace.” GREEN PRICING WILL START SMALL AND GROW BIG Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Finally, innovative programs and products almost never achieve high participation rates at their initial entry into markets. It may take longer for green-pricing programs to mature and penetrate the market than originally expected, but such an outcome would be consistent with a massive body of research on the diffusion of innovations. GREEN PRICING PROGRAMS SHOULD EMPHASIZE NEW FACILITIES Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Regulated green pricing programs should ensure that the premiums customers pay will result in new renewable capacity, or at least additional renewable energy generation. In deregulated supply markets, however, green power may be generated by existing, operating power plants. Those who purchase existing renewable energy out of a fixed pool of resources leave the dirtier resources to their neighbors, who express no preference. It is likely that the green buyer’s neighbor is unwittingly browner as a result of allocating existing power generation according to choice. This may be psychologically satisfying to some green buyers but it creates no net environmental improvement. Selling existing renewable energy does nothing for consumers who choose green power for nonenvironmental reasons, discussed later in this paper. Further, selling existing energy fails to extend the availability of fossil fuels for future generations, diversify the resource mix, or satisfy consumers who buy new sources like solar photovoltaics because they want to be in the technological vanguard. SOLAR POWER IS IDEAL FOR OFF-SETTING PEAK ENERGY LOADS Canadian Chemical News, November 21, 1996; Pg. 16; TITLE: Power of the sun; Solar Energy Society of Canada Inc. // VT98-acs Although solar energy cannot yet replace all existing energy sources, it is economical and is becoming an attractive means for off-setting peak-load requirements. Solar energy is the most accessible supplement to power that is generated by utilities using traditional energy sources. GREEN PRICING EXAMPLES OF SUCCESSFUL GREEN PRICING EXPERIMENTS ABOUND EXAMPLE OF GREEN PRICING FOR UTILITIES PR Newswire, January 31, 1997, TITLE: Dakota Electric Files Plan with Utilities Commission to Offer its Customers Renewable Energy Option // VT98-acs Dakota Electric Association filed a petition on January 30 with the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC) asking to provide its member-consumers with the option to purchase energy generated from renewable resources. The optional renewable energy plan would offer a market-based renewable energy option for Dakota Electric customers who wish to purchase renewable energy. Energy produced by wind generators will be made available to consumers in 100 kilowatt-hour (kwh) blocks of energy. Consumers would subscribe and purchase as many blocks of energy as they wish, up to their normal monthly usage. A 12month commitment would be required of customers for each 100 kwh block of renewable energy they purchase. The cost of each 100 kwh block would be just a few extra dollars per month. The extra cost reflects the higher cost of wind energy for Dakota Electric and its power supplier, Cooperative Power (CP), of Eden Prairie, Minn. Both utilities are not-for-profit, consumerowned cooperatives. EXAMPLE OF UTILITY GREEN RATES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY John Flesher; Associated Press, Rocky Mountain News, January 12, 1997, Pg. 36A, TITLE: ‘Green’ power starts to catch on // VT98-acs The 160-foot-high, 600-kilowatt windmill was installed in June in an alfalfa field a few miles west of Traverse City. Positioned atop a bluff where breezes off Lake Michigan average 14.5 mph, the machine is expected to produce 1.2 million kilowatt hours of electricity a year, enough to supply about 200 homes. To pay for the project, 145 residential and 20 business customers of city- owned Traverse City Light & Power accepted rate increases of 17% to 23%. For the average residential customer, that’s an extra $ 7.58 a month. EXAMPLE OF HOW GREEN PRICING FOR WIND POWER WORKS IN MICHIGAN James R. Udall, Sierra, January 11, 1997; Pg. 26; TITLE: Power to the people; are you willing to pay more for clean energy? // VT98-acs This wind-power generator, the largest in North America, was being paid for with a novel approach called “green pricing.” Such programs, now being developed by about 20 utilities nationwide, give consumers the option of clean power. In Traverse City, 145 families pay an extra $ 7.58 monthly for that option, or about 25 cents a day. Twenty businesses pay $ 10 extra a month. GREEN RATE UTILITY PROGRAMS INTEGRATE WIND POWER INTO THE POWER GRID John Flesher; Associated Press, Rocky Mountain News, January 12, 1997, Pg. 36A, TITLE: ‘Green’ power starts to catch on // VT98-acs Along with power, the windmill is generating excitement nationwide among advocates of renewable energy. They say it represents a new concept in environmentalism – the green rate. ”It really puts the onus on the customers,” said Randy Udall, director of the Community Office for Resource Efficiency, a non-profit group based in Aspen, that promotes green pricing in Colorado. Environmentalists ”have always kind of banged up utilities and businesses, ” Udall said. ”But here’s a way for us to step up ourselves and make tremendous cuts in air pollution, acid rain, greenhouse gases, all that stuff. ” Electricity from the windmill doesn’t go directly to users; it becomes part of the utility’s power grid. MICHIGAN GREEN PRICING WIND POWER PROGRAM IS A SUCCESS, CITIZENS WANT TO EXPAND IT James R. Udall, Sierra, January 11, 1997; Pg. 26; TITLE: Power to the people; are you willing to pay more for clean energy? // VT98-acs By agreeing to pay more for clean power, the citizens of Traverse City have set more than a windmill in motion. Already, with their new machine performing beautifully and 80 people on a waiting list to purchase its power, there’s talk in town of buying a second wind machine. CUSTOMERS CAN BUY UP TO 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY IF THEY WISH – SACRAMENTO EXAMPLE THE ELECTRICITY DAILY, February 20, 1997, TITLE: SMUD Comes Out Fighting for Customer Choice, Green Power // VT98-acs The portfolio of options that SMUD [Sacramento Municipal Utility District] will be offering includes letting customers buy 100 percent of their power from renewables, defined as biomass, sun, wind or geothermal (no politically incorrect hydro, please). GREEN PRICING CONSUMERS WILL OPT TO PAY FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY UNDER GREEN PRICING MAJORITY OF CITIZENS WOULD PAY MORE FOR CLEAN POWER FROM THEIR UTILITY Greenwire, December 12, 1996, TITLE: POLL: VOTERS FAVOR CLEAN ENERGY PROGRAMS // VT98-acs The poll, released yesterday by the Sustainable Energy Coalition, found 57% would support a requirement in federal electric-utility restructuring legislation that utilities provide a certain percentage of energy from renewable sources, even if it means higher utility bills. PRO-ENVIRONMENT ARGUMENTS CAN BE EFFECTIVE WITH CONSUMERS International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 1, 1996, TITLE: Business & Technology–Green Pricing Programs: Poor Utility Outreach May Explain Gap Between Polls and Willingness to Pay // VT98-acs Utilities can make green pricing structures more attractive to customers if they present the program as being effective in producing clean energy. Utilities should also emphasize to customers they are paying a small fee for avoiding resource depletion, planning for the future and receiving a return if the system has net metering, which allows customers to sell back unused energy to power companies (see story, p. 170).[Barbara Farhar, senior scientist at the National renewable Energy Laboratory] MANY WILL PAY MORE FOR CLEANER ELECTRICITY Elizabeth Bryant, States News Service, The Denver Post, February 25, 1997 ; Pg. C-02, TITLE: ‘Green’ energy fans optimistic Will consumers pay more for electricity from renewable sources? // VT98-acs On the drawing board are new state and federal efforts to open up unprecedented customer choice in buying electricity. For most Coloradans, who now depend on coalgenerated power, that could mean the opportunity to buy energy generated by the sun, wind and organic waste. Recent surveys indicate that many state residents want those choices – even if they mean higher monthly bills. CUSTOMERS WILL CHOOSE POWER SOURCES BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS, CREATING COMPETITIVE FORCES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY James R. Udall, Sierra, January 11, 1997; Pg. 26; TITLE: Power to the people; are you willing to pay more for clean energy? // VT98-acs Individuals are likely to enjoy a wider choice in energy suppliers, however, as the industry moves toward deregulation and competition; the mere availability of “customer choice” may drive change. Most planes and restaurants were full of cigarette smoke until consumers were given the choice of where to sit; now most flights and meals are smokefree. In the future, buying dirty power may be as unthinkable as smoking in a hospital room. MAJORITY OF CONSUMERS WILL PAY MORE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 1, 1996, TITLE: Business & Technology–Green Pricing Programs: Poor Utility Outreach May Explain Gap Between Polls and Willingness to Pay // VT98-acs Respondents in most recent surveys expressed a willingness to pay more on energy bills for renewable power. One survey found 63 percent of respondents expressed a willingness to “accept a lower standard of living if it meant a cleaner environment,” the report said. In most cases, between 56 percent and 80 percent expressed a willingness to obtain renewable energy at a premium. [Barbara Farhar, senior scientist at the National renewable Energy Laboratory] GRASSROOTS SUPPORT FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY IS STRONG, EVEN THOUGH IT IS STILL A DISTANT POSSIBILITY Greenwire, March 10, 1997, TITLE: RENEWABLE ENERGY: IS DEREGULATION HURTING DEVELOPMENT? // VT98-acs “The promise of renewable power has become a distant hope,” as state incentive programs and federal funding have dropped off in recent years. But grassroots support for green power “is still widespread,” reports the N.Y. TIMES. MAJORITY OF POWER CUSTOMERS ARE WILLING TO PAY MORE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY AGIS SALPUKAS, The New York Times, March 9, 1997, Section 4; Page 5; TITLE: Inheriting the Wind; Green Power Wanes, but Not at the Grass Roots // VT98-acs But while green power itself is in retreat, the grass-roots support for it is still widespread. Central and South West Corporation, an electric and natural gas utility in the Southwest, recently held town meetings with some of its 1.7 million customers and found strong support for alternative energy sources. Most residents said they were willing to pay from $5 to $7 more a month to have solar or other alternatives supply part of their energy. “There is a market out there for renewables,” said E. R. Brooks, chairman of the utility corporation. “Many people want the option.” GREEN PRICING CONSUMERS WILL OPT TO PAY FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY UNDER GREEN PRICING [P. 2] THE PUBLIC CHOOSES RENEWABLE ENERGY BECAUSE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Environmental well-being is profoundly affected by energy production and consumption. In answers to survey questions over the past eighteen years, increasing majorities of the public have chosen renewable energy and energy efficiency over other energy alternatives. PUBLIC IS WILLING TO PAY FOR CLEANER ENERGY CHOICES Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs People say they care a great deal about the environment and they are beginning to see that energy choices are linked with environmental degradation, but are they willing to put their money where their mouths are? Poll responses on willingness to pay (WTP) indicate attitudes toward environmental protection. Many surveys attempted to go beyond “motherhood” responses to the idea of a clean environment by asking respondents to consider out-of-pocket dollar cost. To protect and improve the environment, majorities in most surveys indicated a willingness to pay more for taxes, gasoline, electricity, other fuels, and automobiles. One survey even found a majority (63%) “willing to accept a lower standard of living if it meant a cleaner environment.” A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS WILL PAY MORE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY ELECTRICITY Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs To summarize, approximately 56% to 80% of respondents to recent national surveys say they would pay a premium for environmental protection or renewable electricity. THE PUBLIC WANTS RENEWABLE ENERGY BUILT INTO THE ENERGY MIX Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs What Americans think about energy and the environment means opportunities for industry and government to develop products, services, programs, and policies that customers and taxpayers want. The public wants renewables and efficiency to be institutionalized-that is, to be built into the energy mix. VOTERS WANT TO INCREASE RENEWABLE ENERGY AND CUT NUCLEAR AND FOSSIL FUELS Lira Behrens, Inside Energy/with Federal Lands, December 16, 1996; Pg. 6, TITLE: SURVEY SHOWS DEMOCRATIC, GOP VOTERS CONTINUE TO BACK EFFICIENCY R&D // VT98-acs On the question of renewable energy and energy efficiency r&d, 56% of all voters, and 66% of those expressing a preference would give the highest priority to funding those programs. Asked which programs they believed should be the first subject to cuts, 31% of respondents selected nuclear power r&d, while 24% favored cutting fossil fuel r&d. MAJORITY OF AMERICANS WANT TO INCREASE RENEWABLE ENERGY AND CUT DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL IMPORTS Global Warming Network Online Today, December 5, 1996, TITLE: RFA Encourages Biomass, Liquid Fuel Alliance // VT98-acs Dinneen [legislative director of the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), Bob Dinneen] stressed that the majority of the U.S. populace favors reductions in the national dependence on foreign oil imports, and would support federal programs aimed at increasing the use of alternative fuels and renewable energy sources. GREEN PRICING EXAMPLES AND STUDIES SHOW CONSUMERS ENTHUSIASTICALLY EMBRACE GREEN PRICING CUSTOMERS IN MICHIGAN SHOWED THEY WERE WILLING TO PAY MORE FOR WIND POWER James R. Udall, Sierra, January 11, 1997; Pg. 26; TITLE: Power to the people; are you willing to pay more for clean energy? // VT98-acs The celebration was a landmark for the $ 200-billion-a-year utility industry. For the first time, a utility had given customers the choice of paying a premium for wind in lieu of coal power. And, for various reasons — reducing pollution, forging a better future for their grandchildren, and saving fossil fuels — many people answered “Yes!” 80% WILL PAY $1 MORE A MONTH FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY ELECTRICITY DENNIS WAMSTED, The Energy Daily, February 11, 1997, TITLE: The Color Of Choice For Utilities Is Green // VT98-acs CSW said it decided to develop such a green tariff following extensive customer polling last year. That research showed that more than 80 percent of the participating customers would be willing to pay at least $1 more a month for environmentally friendly power, and some customer groups in the poll said they would be willing to pay up to $10 more a month. UTILITY STUDIES SHOW THAT A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS WILL SIGN UP FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DENNIS WAMSTED, The Energy Daily, February 11, 1997, TITLE: The Color Of Choice For Utilities Is Green // VT98-acs “Our research shows that a significant portion of our customers support the idea of renewable technologies,” said Jeff Ackerman, renewable product developer for the utility. “Windsource was developed from listening to our customers.” MARKETING STUDIES SHOW CONSUMERS WILL PAY A PREMIUM FOR ELECTRICITY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY Power Markets Week, December 2, 1996; Pg. 8, TITLE: ‘GREEN’ MARKETERS PROPOSE INCENTIVES TO JUMP-START MARKET FOR RENEWABLES // VT98-acs Marketing studies indicate that ”consumers are ready, eager, and willing” to buy clean energy at a premium once market barriers are overcome, said Eric Miller of Foresight Energy Corp., which with Working Assets Green Power presented a joint proposal to establish customer-focused renewable energy incentives to jump-start the market. 75% ARE WILLING TO PAY A PREMIUM FOR WIND POWER Gary Gleason of Communique, Renee de Alba of Insight Research, Ron Fish, Public Service Co. of Colorado, Marketing News, September 23, 1996; Pg. 37, TITLE: Will consumers pay for cleaner energy? // VT98-acs For the residential customers, it was found that at a $ 2.50 premium per 100 kilowatt hours, 75% of the respondents said they would purchase wind electricity. Commercial customers expressed interest in the product as a PR tool. Respondents indicated a strong preference for constructing the wind facility in Colorado, in stark contrast to attitudes often expressed about traditional power plants. 66% OF CONSUMERS WILL PAY MORE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY ELECTRICITY Reuters Financial Service, April 22, 1997, TITLE: US REPUBLICAN RELEASES SURVEY BACKING CLEAN POWER // VT98-acs Two-thirds of consumers would be willing to pay higher prices for electricity produced from clean fuels, according to a survey released Tuesday by House Commerce Committee chairman Thomas Bliley. The Virginia Republican is pushing legislation that would require states to open local power markets to competition. In the survey, 66 percent of the 1,012 adults questioned said they would be willing to pay a few dollars more on their monthly electric bills to receive power produced from “non-polluting, environmentally-friendly technology.” Thirty-one percent of the respondents said they would not, and three percent said they did not know. IN MAINE, 72% OF CUSTOMERS WILL PAY 10% MORE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY ELECTRICITY Pamela W. Person, vice chairman of the Coalition for Sensible Energy, BANGOR DAILY NEWS (BANGOR, MAINE), April 18, 1997, TITLE: The power to demand more renewable energy What Maine citizens really want // VT98-acs Maine’s Public Utilities Commission took a survey in the fall of 1996 of residential and small business ratepayers. Maine citizens and small business both strongly supported clean energy (72 percent of residential and 62 percent of small businesses were willing to pay up to 10 percent more) and programs to improve energy efficiency (more than 62 percent of both groups supported these programs). GREEN PRICING EXAMPLES AND STUDIES SHOW CONSUMERS ENTHUSIASTICALLY EMBRACE GREEN PRICING [P.2] 72% OF TEXANS SAY INVEST IN RENEWABLE ENERGY EVEN IF IT COSTS MORE TODAY PR Newswire, April 17, 1997, TITLE: Texans Want Deregulation to Reduce Electric Pollution and Increase Use of Renewable Energy, According to New Poll // VT98-acs According to poll results, Texans are also willing to invest money into energy resources for the future, including wind power and solar energy. Texans were asked if they supported having the State set goals for the use of non-polluting energy such as wind and solar. Approximately 78% said yes, and 62% said that Texans should invest in generating resources for the future even if it cost more today. CAMBRIDGE REPORTS STUDY SHOWED MAJORITY WILL PAY MORE FOR CLEANER ELECTRICITY Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs In 1990 and again in 1994, Cambridge Reports asked: “How much would you personally be willing to spend each month to have your electricity come from sources that are less harmful to the environment?” (Table Because the first response code was zero to $5, we cannot discern how many said “Nothing more.” Nevertheless, 60% said in 1994 that they would be willing to pay more than $6/month more than they currently were paying for environmentally benign electricity. However, this percentage was down 16 points from 1990. Still, stated WTP for renewable electricity seems widespread. COLORADO UTILITY SAYS 50,000 WILL SIGN UP FOR GREEN PRICING OF ELECTRICITY Elizabeth Bryant, States News Service, The Denver Post, February 25, 1997 ; Pg. C-02, TITLE: ‘Green’ energy fans optimistic Will consumers pay more for electricity from renewable sources? // VT98-acs But a market survey by Public Service, the state’s largest utility, found 5 percent of its customers were willing to pay more for “green” electricity. The findings triggered two pilot projects in wind and solar energy. Under the wind program, Public Service customers will pay a premium for chunks of kilowatt hours that will flow into the general power grid. The company expects 50,000 of its customers to sign up for wind energy, which will likely be available next winter. GREEN PRICING AFFIRMATIVE STUDIES SHOWING CONSUMERS WILL PARTICIPATE IN GREEN PRICING ARE SUPERIOR NATIONAL STUDIES SHOW MANY PEOPLE WILL PAY MORE FOR CLEAN ELECTRICITY, LOCAL STUDIES SHOW VERY FEW WILL Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Local-area utility market research has shown various percentages of customers, ranging from 10% to 90%, who say they are willing to pay a premium for renewable electricity. Although some differences between national and local samples should be expected, the local-area results contrast sharply with consistent results from national probability samples, in which majorities of 56% to 80% usually express WTP for renewable electricity. LOCAL WILLINGNESS TO PAY STUDIES ARE INFERIOR TO NATIONAL STUDIES Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs At first glance, utility market research results may be troubling to renewable energy advocates. However, a closer look at utility market research on WTP reveals some problems in assessing the results: (1) Because such data are considered proprietary, the questions used and the actual range of responses are rarely published. Instead, interpretations are published. The scientific quality of the research and the interpretations is impossible to assess because the publications describing the findings do not undergo rigorous peer review. In addition, the data are not accumulating into a shared body of knowledge. (2) Sometimes the interpretations published generalize inappropriately to populations of electricity customers. For example, market researchers occasionally have generalized from percentages of focus-group participants expressing an opinion to the service-area population. (3) Often, sampling procedures are not described; therefore, no information exists on sampling criteria and sampling frames used. The generalizability of the findings cannot be assessed. FARHAR EVIDENCE USES 700 DIFFERENT POLLS OVER 23 YEARS Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs This paper synthesizes data from more that 700 polls between 1973 and 1996 that indicate when questions comparing preferences among energy alternatives were asked. LOCAL STUDY QUESTIONS PHRASING ON WILLINGNESS TO PAY IS FAULTY Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs (6) Question phrasing is often a problem. For example, asking respondents, “Are you willing to pay more for electricity generated from renewable sources such as solar and wind power?” is different from asking them, “Will you pay $5/month more on your utility bill each month for one year so that XYZ utility can generate electricity from a small wind farm located 5 miles east of [city name]?” INDIVIDUAL UTILITY WILLINGNESS TO PAY STUDIES ARE INFERIOR TO NATIONAL STUDIES Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Several reasons may explain the difference between expressed WTP in utility market research and actual participation at the initial offering of a green-pricing program. Some hypotheses are that utilities may not (1) define an environmental or regulatory reason for the program or product presented; (2) state how the product relates to a problem or need customers care about; (3) define specifically a financial amount requested and how it would be used; (4) define the length of the customer’s commitment; or (5) offer incentives for participation (such as fixed electric rates). IT IS EASY TO DESIGN GREEN PRICING PROGRAMS SO THAT CUSTOMERS WILL GET INVOLVED Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Customers are more likely to participate the more they perceive green-pricing programs as being (1) effective in actually producing clean electricity; (2) advantageous through paying relatively small amounts for value-added, avoiding resource depletion, planning for the future, or receiving a return (as in net metering); (3) reducing individual risk by keeping utility rates stable for long periods and customer ability to cancel, renew, or transfer participation; and (4) easy to understand. GREEN PRICING DEREGULATION AND THE GRANTING OF GREEN PRICING POWERS TO STATES MEAN NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO TRY GREEN PRICING DEREGULATION IS COMING, AND IT IS THE RIGHT SETTING WITHIN WHICH TO CREATE INCREASED USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY The Energy Report, February 10, 1997, TITLE: Renewable Energy Sustainable energy group urges Clinton to back renewables portfolio in bill // VT98-acs This year’s deregulation push may be the administration’s “only major legislative opportunity during its second term to make a transition to sustainable energy and shape the nation’s energy policy for decades to come,” the coalition insisted. A strong bill “could go a long way in shifting the nation’s energy policy away from nuclear power, coal and oil, to instead favor improved energy efficiency and renewable energy, ” the group argued. STATES CAN MANDATE THAT UTILITIES USE CERTAIN LEVELS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs State commissions would mandate acceptable levels of renewable energy. To meet their share of that obligation, electricity suppliers could build their own renewable energy facilities or buy “renewable form of environmental trading to reduce emissions of sulphur dioxide from coal-burning power plants (Bailey, 1995). STATES NOW HAVE THE POWER TO ORDER UTILITIES TO USE RENEWABLE ENERGY Utility Environment Report, February 14, 1997; Pg. 3, TITLE: FERC GIVES STATES RIGHT TO ORDER UTILITIES TO BUY RENEWABLE ENERGY // VT98-acs A recent Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ruling gives states the right to order electric utilities under their jurisdiction to purchase specified amounts of renewable energy (Docket EL95-51-000). However, the decision also indicates that to the extent a regulatory order requires a utility to buy alternate energy from qualified facilities at rates exceeding avoided costs — or sets wholesale power rates for FERC jurisdictional utilities — its actions are preempted by federal law. FEDERAL RULINGS ESTABLISHED STATE POWER TO REQUIRE UTILITIES TO USE RENEWABLE ENERGY Utility Environment Report, February 14, 1997; Pg. 3, TITLE: FERC GIVES STATES RIGHT TO ORDER UTILITIES TO BUY RENEWABLE ENERGY // VT98-acs ”FERC’s decision is a victory for advocates of renewable power,” said Alexander Ewing, staff attorney at the Environmental Law and Policy Center in Chicago and counsel for the Izaak Walton League. He noted that in effect, MidAmerican had asked FERC to declare that states cannot require utilities to purchase renewable power at a price above avoided cost. That would have effectively gutted the states’ ability to impose a renewables portfolio standard or to require utilities to purchase specified amounts of energy, he said. ”Instead of doing what MidAmerican wanted, FERC went out of its way to affirm that states have the authority to require their utilities to purchase specified amounts of renewable power,” Ewing said. ”And it is clear from FERC’s opinion that avoided cost does not set a ceiling on the price utilities pay for this power.” “GREEN MARKETING” SCHEMES TO SMALL INDIVIDUAL USERS IS THE BEST WAY TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY Power Markets Week, December 2, 1996; Pg. 8, TITLE: ‘GREEN’ MARKETERS PROPOSE INCENTIVES TO JUMP-START MARKET FOR RENEWABLES // VT98-acs ”Green” marketers will be essential in building a strong consumer demand, particularly among residential and small business customers, who constitute the most promising markets for renewables, marketers told the California Energy Commission last week. GREEN PRICING GREEN PRICING REDUCES THE HARMS OF THE CURRENT ENERGY SYSTEM GREEN PRICING MEETS MANY OTHER GOALS BESIDES ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Because the promotion of renewable energy is called green power (or green pricing), many tend to think the only motivation for its purchase is improved environmental quality. This is undoubtedly important to many consumers, but others are motivated by a fascination with new technology for personal use (such as photovoltaics), reducing dependence on utility companies, making sure energy resources are available for future generations, protecting themselves against electricity price fluctuations, or reducing risk and vulnerability to supply interruptions. Renewable energy, rather than environmental improvement, seems to account for more of these motivations. SMALL CHANGES THROUGH GREEN PRICING PLANS CAUSE HUGE REDUCTIONS IN GREENHOUSE GASES James R. Udall, Sierra, January 11, 1997; Pg. 26; TITLE: Power to the people; are you willing to pay more for clean energy? // VT98-acs “We’re here to meet our customers’ needs,” says Chuck Fricke, Traverse City’s utility director. “Some of them want cleaner power, not cheaper power.” Since the wind doesn’t blow all the time, participants must rely on coal and hydro plants for backup. Still, the benefits of substituting wind for coal are profound. For example, the average Traverse City family is reducing its emissions of carbon dioxide, the chief greenhouse gas, by 14,400 pounds a year — the equivalent of taking a car off the road, or planting two acres of trees — a bargain for $ 90 a year. $5 A MONTH COMMITMENT TO GREEN PRICING OF WIND POWER SAVES AS MUCH CO2 AS 5,000 MILES OF DRIVING Utility Environment Report, February 14, 1997; Pg. 11, TITLE: PUC APPROVES PS COLORADO GREEN PRICING PLAN // VT98-acs Nielsen said customers who spend $ 5 more/month for wind power will be reducing greenhouse gases in the same volume as if they cut out 5,000 miles of driving. GREEN PRICING-NEGATIVE CONSUMERS WILL NOT PAY EXTRA FOR “GREEN PRICING” SCHEMES LESS THAN 5% ARE ACTUALLY WILLING TO PAY MORE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLIES Gary Gleason of Communique, Renee de Alba of Insight Research, Ron Fish, Public Service Co. of Colorado, Marketing News, September 23, 1996; Pg. 37, TITLE: Will consumers pay for cleaner energy? // VT98-acs This set the groundwork for the next and critical phase of the study: a market simulation to determine actual purchasing behavior. For the simulation, four samples of 1,000 random customers, as well as all previously surveyed customers who expressed interest in the product, were sent mailings including product description, the four most successful advertising messages, and a product order form. This survey effort was designed to allow for an accurate projection of actual market penetration. At this writing, results of the simulation are being completed. However, initial results suggest that less than 5 % of the residential market can be expected to actually pay a premium for renewable power. FEWER THEN 10% OF CONSUMERS WILL SIGN UP TO PAY MORE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 1, 1996, TITLE: Business & Technology–Green Pricing Programs: Poor Utility Outreach May Explain Gap Between Polls and Willingness to Pay // VT98-acs Utility market surveys find that at the inception of green pricing programs, when customers pay more a month than usual for renewables, fewer than 10 percent of customers initially sign up. In some cases, these numbers are as low as 1 percent or 2 percent, Farhar said.[Barbara Farhar, senior scientist at the National renewable Energy Laboratory] NUMBER OF CONSUMERS WILLING TO TO PAY $6/MONTH FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY IS FALLING International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 1, 1996, TITLE: Business & Technology–Green Pricing Programs: Poor Utility Outreach May Explain Gap Between Polls and Willingness to Pay // VT98-acs Cambridge Energy Research in 1990 and 1994 asked utility customers how much they would be willing to pay for renewable energy. Sixty percent in 1994 were willing to pay more than $6 per month extra for renewable energy. This percentage was down 16 points from the 1990 survey, Farhar said. [Barbara Farhar, senior scientist at the National renewable Energy Laboratory] UTILITIES HAVE NOT OFFERED SERVICES ALONG WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY PRICING PLANS International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 1, 1996, TITLE: Business & Technology–Green Pricing Programs: Poor Utility Outreach May Explain Gap Between Polls and Willingness to Pay // VT98-acs Utilities have not offered the public adequate business services to help persuade customers to invest in renewable energy, Farhar said. The public wants renewables built into the energy scheme, she wrote. CUSTOMERS WON’T SIGN UP FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY PRICING PLANS BECAUSE THEY DO NOT TRUST THE UTILITIES International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 1, 1996, TITLE: Business & Technology–Green Pricing Programs: Poor Utility Outreach May Explain Gap Between Polls and Willingness to Pay // VT98-acs Customers’ level of trust in their utilities also may interfere with their willingness to pay for green pricing. Customers might respond better to programs offered by municipal utilities or even non-utility suppliers with a reputation for environmental stewardship, such as the Working Assets group, Farhar contended.[Barbara Farhar, senior scientist at the National renewable Energy Laboratory] GREEN PRICING-NEGATIVE PEOPLE MAY SAY THEY WILL PAY FOR GREEN PRICING, BUT WHEN IT COMES TO ACTUALLY MAKING A FINANCIAL COMMITMENT, THEY WON’T CONSUMERS WILL NOT PAY MORE FOR WIND ENERGY — THEY SAY SO WHEN ASKED HYPOTHETICALLY BUT THEY DON’T WHEN THEY ACTUALLY HAVE TO PAY American News Service, THE ORLANDO SENTINEL, February 16, 1997; Pg. A17, TITLE: STRIKING A BLOW FOR WIND ENERGY // VT98-acs Furthermore, some energy analysts aren’t convinced the public is willing to pay more for wind energy, despite market research to the contrary. The argument: Consumers have been answering hypothetical questions rather than being asked to open their wallets. CONSUMERS SAY THEY WILL BUY EXPENSIVE RENEWABLE ENERGY, BUT THAT ISN’T MATCHED BY ACTUAL BUYING BEHAVIOR Gary Gleason of Communique, Renee de Alba of Insight Research, Ron Fish, Public Service Co. of Colorado, Marketing News, September 23, 1996; Pg. 37, TITLE: Will consumers pay for cleaner energy? // VT98-acs In developing the research, the highest priority was to establish actual consumer buying behavior. Previous research had identified a pattern of wide support for environmentally friendly, renewable-energy products and programs. However, experience has shown dramatically lower success in actually marketing them. BUSINESSES WILL USE “GREEN” MARKETING, BUT CONSUMERS WON’T PAY THE COST Jim Buchta; Staff Writer, Star Tribune (Minneapolis, MN), November 16, 1996, Pg. 4H, TITLE: Would you pay more for ‘green’ house?; Many who favor Earth-friendly home are reluctant to back ideals with money // VT98-acs Cameron Duncan, technical specialist and architect for the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Clearinghouse at the U.S. Department of Energy. “It’ll start out being a big deal for business to promote their association with environmental issues,” Duncan said. “Some consumers will spring for it and others will say they want it,” he said, but few will actually be willing to pay. PUBLIC WANTS TO SPEND ON THINGS FOR IMMEDIATE GRATIFICATION, NOT ON DISTANT BENEFITS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, November 11, 1996, Pg. 06, TITLE: A business praying for ‘cultural revolution’ // VT98-acs Another obstacle to change is the general public’s desire to spend money on things that offer immediate gratification rather than something that, according to recent market research, is seen as remote and irrelevant to people’s lifestyles. GREEN PRICING-NEGATIVE GREEN PRICING SCHEMES ARE TOO SLOW AND DIFFICULT TO IMPLEMENT GREEN UTILITY RATES WILL TAKE A LONG, LONG TIME TO GAIN PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 1, 1996, TITLE: Business & Technology–Green Pricing Programs: Poor Utility Outreach May Explain Gap Between Polls and Willingness to Pay // VT98-acs Innovative products and programs almost never achieve high participation rates at their outset. Green markets may take longer to penetrate the electricity market than analysts first predicted, Farhar suggested. [Barbara Farhar, senior scientist at the National renewable Energy Laboratory] GREEN PRICING FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY FACES SERIOUS TIME DELAYS Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs A second reason may be that the supply of new renewable capacity falls short of demand. Even if a buyer is willing to pay a higher price for new renewable energy, a supplier usually cannot deliver it immediately and delivering it in six months to two years will not capture market share. Suppliers can only provide what is available when they enter newly-opened markets. GREEN MARKETING ISN’T THE SAME AS GREEN POWER Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs “Green marketing” is an attempt to characterize the supplier as environmentally friendly without referring to the energy resource used to produce electricity. “Green power” is electricity which may be characterized as environmentally friendly by virtue of the energy resource used. Generally speaking, this resource is renewable energy. GREEN PRICING FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY IS JUST A PUBLIC RELATIONS GESTURE James R. Udall, Sierra, January 11, 1997; Pg. 26; TITLE: Power to the people; are you willing to pay more for clean energy? // VT98-acs With green pricing in its infancy, existing programs have purchased just two megawatts of new capacity — a tiny fraction of the nation’s total. Skeptics wonder if it will ever amount to much. “For some utilities, green pricing is just greenwashing, a public-relations gesture,” says Randy Swisher, executive director of the American Wind Energy Association. “We support well-designed programs, but we don’t think the free market or individual customers should bear the full burden of accelerating the commercialization of renewables. State and federal incentives are needed, too.” GREEN PRICING-NEGATIVE GREEN PRICING IS AN INSUFFICIENT SCHEME TO GAIN THE SUPPOSED BENEFITS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY GREEN PRICING CANNOT PRODUCE A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs However, we are skeptical that green pricing, as a primary policy instrument, can produce a sustainable energy future. First, even if moral suasion induces some individuals to purchase environmentally sound products, it will have less impact on industrial, commercial and other non-household users of power — who buy 71% of the national total. Indeed, legal obligations to increase shareholder value may prohibit firms from considering noneconomic criteria in their operational decisions. GREEN PRICING WILL ELIMINATE THE MORE RIGOROUS I.R.P. PROMOTION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs More troubling, while Moskovitz describes green pricing as an overlay to a robust IRP process, we fear that green pricing may become a substitute for IRP and other forms of utility support for renewables. For example, the Wisconsin Public Service Commission’s recently proposed restructuring plan recommends using green pricing alone to encourage renewable energy (Wisconsin…, 1995). Because people sometimes make better decisions as citizens than they do as consumers, we fear replacing a vigorous public policy process for managing the electric system — i.e., IRP — with individual customer choice. PORTFOLIO STANDARD AND SYSTEMS BENEFITS FUNDS WILL NOT, ALONE, PROTECT RENEWABLE ENERGY Lira Behrens, Inside Energy/with Federal Lands, January 20, 1997: Pg. 1, TITLE: SUPPORT ASKED FOR RENEWABLES STANDARD // VT98-acs An alliance of groups known as the Sustainable Energy Coalition plans to send a letter to the White House this week urging the Clinton administration to keep the so-called ” renewable energy portfolio standard” in the bill. A widely circulated Nov. 26 draft of the bill contained both the portfolio standard and a ‘’systems benefits fund” into which consumers would pay a fee to support energy efficiency, renewable energy, low-income service and other programs that might be vulnerable under a restructured industry. The coalition believes neither provision alone is sufficient to protect renewable energy. Each one will help certain renewable technologies, said a representative of the alliance, which is drafting the letter to the White House. According to the coalition, the portfolio standard will help the more competitive technologies such as geothermal, biomass and wind, while a benefits charge would help photovoltaics and other emerging technologies. DISCLOSURE & CERTIFICATION ELECTRIC UTILITY DEREGULATION IS COMING IN EARLY 1998 30 MILLION CONSUMERS IN SIX STATES WILL BEGIN CHOOSING ELECTRICITY SUPPLIERS Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs At least 30 million consumers in six St at es will begin choosing among competitive electricity providers in early 1998 and retail access to competing electricity suppliers is under consideration in many other states ELECTRIC UTILITY DEREGULATION IS INCREASING ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs The Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 launched an experiment in introducing competition to the American electric system. The legislation encouraged entrepreneurs to sell power to utilities. Recent state and federal proposals would curtail utilities’ monopoly status more severely by allowing businesses and potentially even households to designate an electricity supplier, much as they now select a long-distance telephone carrier. SOON UTILITIES WILL COMPETE FOR CUSTOMERS JUST LIKE LONG DISTANCE COMPANIES DO NOW PR Newswire, April 21, 1997, TITLE: Truth and Labeling Needed for Electric Power // VT98-acs Recent federal legislation required that electric companies open their transmission lines to other power producing companies engaged in wholesale transactions, and many states are now exploring the option of free RETAIL access. That is, electricity producers would compete directly for customers, much as long-distance telephone companies do today. DISCLOSURE & CERTIFICATION UTILITY RESTRUCTURING WILL THREATEN INCREASED USE OF “DIRTY” ENERGY SOURCES UTILITY RESTRUCTURING WILL KEEP THE DIRTIEST POWER PLANTS ON LINE LONGER Curtis A. Moore, Director of International Programs for the American Lung Association, February, 1997; DYING NEEDLESSLY: SICKNESS AND DEATH DUE TO ENERGY-RELATED AIR POLLUTION; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs The most promising opportunity for making those cuts is in some 700 “old source” powerplants-mostly Midwestern, coal-burning plants- exempted by the 1970 Clean Air Act and the 1977 Amendments from meeting the new, stricter standards. These old source plants legally emit four to ten times the pollution of new technologies. At the time, legislators expected that utilities would retire the plants after a “natural” lifetime of twenty to thirty years. Yet, the exemptions themselves confer a competitive advantage, causing utilities to keep the old-source plants in service beyond that point. The rising cost of capital further dissuades utilities from replacing them with new, cleaner facilties. Restructuring the electric system may exacerbate the problem. Because the Midwest has surplus generating resources, many of the “grandfathered” units operate far under their full capacity. As utility deregulation allows power producers to contract with distant customers, utilities may run these fully depreciated and cheap-to-operate facilities more intensively, thereby producing even more pollution. This prospect alarms not only environmentalists, but also politicians in states (in New England, for example) downwind of the Midwestern plants. Recent analyses suggest that, contrary to some early expectations, the dirty but fully amortized old-source plants may be quite competitive economically in a restructured electricity market. UTILITY DEREGULATION MEANS A FOCUS ON LOWEST COST ENERGY, NOT ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS AGIS SALPUKAS, The New York Times, March 9, 1997, Section 4; Page 5; TITLE: Inheriting the Wind; Green Power Wanes, but Not at the Grass Roots // VT98-acs A major reason for the decline involves the deregulation of the utilities industry. Many states are opening their utilities to producers and marketers of low-cost electricity, giving customers a choice and perhaps lower rates. California, which passed its deregulation law last fall, will enable corporations, universities and other big customers to choose their energy provider in 1998. It will also guarantee small customers a rate reduction of 10 percent. Facing competition, many utility companies have become preoccupied with cutting costs, merging with other energy companies, and expanding overseas. DISCLOSURE & CERTIFICATION WHEN CONSUMERS CHOOSE THEIR UTILITY, THEY WILL BE CONFUSED, UNINFORMED, AND MISINFORMED BY THE UTILITIES CONSUMERS RECEIVE LITTLE ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION AFTER UTILITY DEREGULATION Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs One eligible customer, confused by the blitz, is quoted in the Boston Globe as saying, “They’re all pandering to the environment. There’s so much image, but very little information.” CURRENT INFORMATION FROM UTILITIES IS NOT VERY SUBSTANTIAL Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs “No Longer Just a Dream, Green Pricing Heads to the Market,” Energy Daily, 18 Sept. 1996. “[Power companies] are all pandering to the environment. There’s so much image, but very little information.” EXISTING CONSUMER CHOICE SITUATIONS HAVE PRODUCED CUSTOMER MISINFORMATION Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Pilot retail access programs have shown that customer confusion and misleading claims are highly likely CONFUSING UTILITY GREEN ADVERTISING MAKES DISCLOSURE AND CERTIFICATION ESSENTIAL Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs “Obfuscation marketing,” whether intentional or not, will confuse consumers about which offer best meets their needs. Green or environmentally-friendly advertising claims will be more difficult to verify in a complex and sometimes chaotic market. In a competitive environment, the marketing issue takes on a new dimension: consumer protection. To address concerns about market credibility and consumer protection, and to increase market demand for renewable energy, green power standards are needed. IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF UTILITY DEREGULATION, CONSUMERS WILL BE BOMBARDED WITH SPECIOUS CLAIMS AND OFFERS Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs “The blood is in the water!” is how a representative of one electricity company describes the feeding frenzy among competitive suppliers in New Hampshire’s retail competition pilot program. In May 1996, the 2 Granite State became one of the first in the nation to allow electricity suppliers to compete directly with electric utilities for retail customers, much as long-distance telephone companies now compete to serve individual households. Closely watched by policymakers, consumer advocates and energy users nationwide, the competing firms are scrambling to find the right combination of pricing and marketing: pricing that offers electricity supply at 25 percent lower than the predicted 3.5 cents per kWh; and marketing that lures (some would say bribes) 3 customers with gifts, gimmicks and checks. With about two dozen suppliers chasing 17,000 residential, commercial and industrial customers, the advertising has been intense. Customers have been inundated with-and confused by-direct mail, telemarketing, print ads and radio and television advertising. Of about fifteen suppliers marketing to residential customers, one-third appeal to customers’ environmental values. To establish its green orientation, Green Mountain Energy Partners mailed a spruce seedling to potential customers, and promised that those who took actions to conserve energy would receive eco-credit s that could help pay their elect ric bills. To at t ract customers, some suppliers offered booklets on how to save energy or free efficient showerheads. Working Assets promised to donate one percent of its gross revenues in New Hampshire to local environmental groups. Freedom Energy/Xenergy offered “meaningful services, like installation and financing of energy-efficient equipment, to lower your costs further.” Granite State Energy wrote, “When you select our Two-Year Savings Plan, you’ll also receive a free bird feeder ($18 value). It’s made in New Hampshire and officially licensed by the National Audubon Society.” Although Granite State Energy also claimed that “No other utility is doing more to protect our environment,” other suppliers also pointed to their environmental records, or used imagery to evoke an appealing vision of nature. DISCLOSURE & CERTIFICATION WHEN CONSUMERS CHOOSE THEIR UTILITY, THEY WILL BE CONFUSED, UNINFORMED, AND MISINFORMED BY THE UTILITIES [P. 2] UTILITIES ARE WILLING TO SPEND MILLIONS ON ADVERTISING Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Enron Chairman Kenneth Lay noted that “spending as much as $50 million a year on advertising is not out of sight nor out of line as deregulation opens up the $270 billion natural gas and electricity market.” DEREGULATION WILL DEMAND ENERGY SOURCE DISCLOSURE IN ORDER TO REFLECT CONSUMER DESIRES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY AND TO AVOID GREEN SCAMS PR Newswire, April 21, 1997, TITLE: Truth and Labeling Needed for Electric Power // VT98acs A survey conducted by the Maine Public Utilities Commission showed that 86% of residential and 75% of small business customers wanted to know how their electricity was generated. State regulators can help consumers by ensuring that the facts are available. “Disclosure of basic information about power products and certification of environmentally preferred resources will increase the efficiency of retail markets and protect against green scams,” says Holt. UTILITY DEREGULATION NEEDS DISCLOSURE TO MAKE SURE IT DOESN’T HURT RENEWABLE ENERGY PR Newswire, April 21, 1997, TITLE: Truth and Labeling Needed for Electric Power // VT98acs American consumers will soon be able to select their own power company. Will consumers who wish to choose a power company have adequate information to act on their preferences? Energy consultant Edward Holt, author of the Green Pricing Newsletter, has proposed two tools, required disclosure and voluntary certification, that can help consumers understand the environmental impacts of their energy choices. “If adopted, these consumer protection and market enhancement tools will help ensure that consumers get what they pay for,” says Holt. DISCLOSURE & CERTIFICATION WITH DISCLOSURE AND CERTIFICATION CONSUMERS WILL MAKE BETTER CHOICES ABOUT ELECTRIC UTILITIES DISCLOSURE WILL ENHANCE CONSUMER DECISIONS AND PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs The justification for disclosure of energy resources is two-fold. First, for markets to operate efficiently, consumers require adequate and accurate information relevant to their decision- making criteria. Second, there is a documented history of consumer support for renewable energy suggesting that how electricity is generated is an important criterion to many consumers. DISCLOSURE AND CERTIFICATION WILL ALLOW CONSUMERS TO MAKE EDUCATED DECISIONS, AS FDA LABELING AND FTC ENERGY GUIDE LABELING HAVE DONE Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Disclosure would provide consumers with the information necessary to choose a supplier based on energy source. Disclosure also could be used to present certain types of environmental impacts which are measurable and routinely reported, such as air emissions for criteria pollutants per unit of electricity produced. Consumers could then shop for the power supply with the least environmental impact. This approach is analogous to nutritional labeling on all food products by the Food and Drug Administration to provide information to health-conscious consumers. Another example is EnergyGuide appliance labels provided by the Federal Trade Commission to indicate the relative energy efficiency of many household appliances. DISCLOSURE WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENCY THROUGH CONSUMER CHOICE Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Clear and uniform disclosure may promote efficiency through informed product comparisons; and informed customer choice cannot occur in a retail electricity market without full disclosure of all relevant and important facts; DISCLOSURE WILL PROMOTE CONSUMER CHOICE BASED ON RESOURCE PREFERENCES Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs State regulators and legislators should require uniform disclosure of energy resources used in generating electricity. This factual information will enable consumers to base their selection of supplier in part on their resource preferences. CONSUMERS STRONGLY BELIEVE IN UTILITY DISCLOSURE Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs In 1996, the Maine Public Utilities Commission surveyed 500 residential and 500 small business customers. Eighty-six percent of the former group and 75% of the latter indicated that electricity companies should be required to tell customers how their electricity is generated. CERTIFICATION OF GREEN POWER IS ESSENTIAL TO PROTECT CONSUMERS Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Green power standards are justified primarily by the need for market credibility and consumer protection in competitive retail markets. DISCLOSURE & CERTIFICATION WITH DISCLOSURE AND CERTIFICATION CONSUMERS WILL MAKE BETTER CHOICES ABOUT ELECTRIC UTILITIES [P. 2] WITHOUT UTILITY SOURCE DISCLOSURE, CONSUMER DESIRES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY CANNOT MAKE AN IMPACT UNDER DEREGULATION PR Newswire, April 21, 1997, TITLE: Truth and Labeling Needed for Electric Power // VT98acs In a New Hampshire pilot program about two dozen suppliers competed for 17,000 customers. Rival energy suppliers appealed to consumers environmental values by offering premiums — such as low-flow showerheads — that suggested a concern for the environment. Unfortunately, consistent information was lacking about the actual environmental impacts of the power production. Without certified information about the source of their electricity -coal, natural gas, nuclear, solar, wind or hydro — consumers cannot make choices that truly reflect their environmental values. UTILITY DEREGULATION DOES NOT MEAN A TOTAL ABSENCE OF ANY CONTROLS ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Of course, a restructured electric system need not be completely unregulated. For example, American stock markets benefit from regulation by the Securities and Exchange Commission, to the apparent satisfaction of listed companies and millions of investors. Telephone deregulation also retained limited social policies through small enjoy immense political clout, leading renewable energy advocates to fear that a restructured electric system would reflect corporate goals alone. TO REFLECT ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS IN A DEREGULATING UTILITY ENVIRONMENT, CONSUMERS NEED INFORMATION AND ASSURANCE Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Consumers will soon be able to select their own power company. To ensure that this freedom lowers the total social cost of electricity, customers need to know how their power is generated, and they need assurance that power sold as “green” really is so. UTILITY CUSTOMERS WILL NEED INFORMATION IN ORDER FOR THE MARKET SYSTEM TO OPERATE Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Markets function best when participants receive credible and comprehensible information. Unfortunately, advocates of restructuring the American electric system sometimes neglect this principle. Most observers expect deregulation to offer electricity users more opportunities to choose among competing suppliers. But consumer choice will not lower total social costs-the ostensible goal of deregulation-if poor information prevents consumers from including the environmental consequences of energy use in their purchasing decisions. DISCLOSURE & CERTIFICATION DISCLOSURE AND CERTIFICATION SHOULD BE IMPLEMENTED TO PROTECT CONSUMERS’ CHOICES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DISCLOSURE OF ENERGY SOURCES AND CERTIFICATION OF GREEN POWER SHOULD ACCOMPANY UTILITY RESTRUCTURING IN THE USA Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Fortunately, there are two policy and marketing tools that could cut through the marketing haze to help consumers understand their choices: Disclosure of energy resources used in generating electricity should be required of all suppliers. Disclosure provides an objective statement about resources used to supply power by a specific company or under a specific brand name. Policymakers should have a particular interest in disclosure because of its role in reducing information barriers in the market place, and as a consumer protection measure. Certification of green power is a value statement about whether the electricity offered is consistent with certain preferred resources, technologies or environmental results. Although certification is an optional marketing tool for suppliers, policymakers may wish to endorse it to express their support for renewable energy technologies and the environment. DISCLOSURE AND CERTIFICATION WILL PROTECT CONSUMERS Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs If adopted, these consumer protection and market enhancement tools will help ensure that consumers get what they pay for in the emerging market-oriented energy system. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REGULATORY UTILITY COMMISSIONERS SUPPORT DISCLOSURE AND CERTIFICATION Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC), convened at its 108th Annual Convention in San Francisco, California believes that restructuring the electric industry should facilitate informed customer choice that will promote efficient markets, resource diversity, and environmental quality; and the NARUC supports initiatives leading to minimum, enforceable, uniform standards for the form and content of disclosure and labeling that would allow retail and wholesale customers to easily compare price, price variability, resource mix, and environmental characteristics of their electricity purchases; IF CONSUMERS THINK RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOR OPPOSED CONSUMER CHOICE, IT WILL BE FATALLY DAMAGED ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs For decades, the renewable energy community has invested its scant resources in acquiring influence over policy-making processes. But to succeed in an era of customer choice, renewable energy would require a radically different infrastructure. Market success would depend on the ability of advocates to reach consumers, rather than their elected or appointed proxies. For example, renewable energy advocates might have to familiarize the public with climate science. If Americans come to believe that they have received “choice” despite the efforts of environmentalists, renewable energy may never recover. IF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOR OPPOSES CONSUMER CHOICE, IT WILL DESTROY ALL IT HAS GOING FOR IT ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Unfortunately, we suspect that implacable resistance to retail choice could severely damage the renewable energy community, while failing to slow the trend toward less regulated markets. Many Americans view renewable energy positively, attributing its diminutive market share to opposition from small-minded skeptics or entrenched special interests. Frequently, even those who oppose renewable energy projects pay the concept lip-service as a savior due to arrive sometime in the future. The renewable energy community would suffer grievously should the public come to regard it as another pressure group with a stake in business as usual. DISCLOSURE & CERTIFICATION DISCLOSURE IS AN EFFECTIVE MECHANISM FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD REQUIRE DISCLOSURE IN UTILITY RESTRUCTURING, BUT IMPLEMENT IT AT THE STATE LEVEL Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Several national restructuring bills are currently being considered. If Congress adopts federal legislation, disclosure should be included. The format and presentation could be left to each state to determine but electricity suppliers marketing across multiple states may prefer a uniform label. Without a uniform approach, however, its effectiveness as a consumer education tool would be seriously weakened. OTHER EXAMPLES OF DISCLOSURE SHOW IT SILL BE EFFECTIVE FOR ELECTRICITY Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs The desirability and feasibility of such disclosure is clearly established in nutrition labeling, uniform food pricing, truth-in-lending, and many other federal consumer protection programs; UTILITY COMMISSIONERS SUPPORT DISCLOSURE IN ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners. At its annual meeting in November 1996, NARUC adopted a “Resolution in Support of Customer ‘Right-to-Know’ and Product Labeling Standards for the Retail Marketing of Electricity” PROVIDING INFORMATION ABOUT ENERGY SOURCES WILL BE EASY TO DO, AND STANDARD BUSINESS PROCEDURE Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs While the task will not be trivial, claims that obtaining and providing information is technically impossible or economically onerous do not hold water. Perhaps the most important point is that these provisions are not esoteric environmental gimmicks, but normal-in fact, essential-elements of an active consumer market. DISCLOSURE OF FUEL SOURCE IS STANDARD BUSINESS PRACTICE — LABEL AND INGREDIENTS Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Disclosure of fuel source is no different than such right-to-know regimes as labeling the content of packaged food. Certification of power sold as “green” addresses the same truthin-advertising concerns as the Federal Trade Commission’s definitions of “low-fat,” “organic,” and the like. The FTC has already issued guidelines concerning claims of superior environmental performance. DISCLOSURE CAN EASILY BE DESIGNED SO THAT IT DOES NOT OVERWHELM CONSUMERS WITH INFORMATION Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Disclosure should be simple and uniform so that consumers are not overwhelmed with information. Consumers will require significant education about different energy resources and environmental impacts in order to understand the information being provided. State utility regulators should make uniform disclosure of energy sources or environmental impacts a requirement of retail power suppliers who wish to compete in that state. Focus group market research is now planned to determine what information is of greatest interest to consumers and how best to present it. DISCLOSURE & CERTIFICATION CERTIFICATION WILL BE AN EFFECTIVE SYSTEM TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY CERTIFICATION CAN PROMOTE EXISTING AND NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY FACILITIES Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs There are several ways to use certification to encourage the development of new renewable capacity, while recognizing that existing renewables are still important to achieving environmental and resource diversity benefits. – Use existing resources as an interim measure – Commit to build new plants – Establish a minimum standard for new renewables: CERTIFICATION SHOULD EMPHASIZE NEW FACILITIES Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Favor new resources: Preference in certification should be given to new resources and supplier commitments to develop new capacity, while recognizing that new renewable capacity is in short supply. This will support continued progress in the commercialization and competitiveness of environmentally-preferred generation technologies. Existing green resources likely will be part of a portfolio receiving certification but should not constitute the entire portfolio. MANY RESPECTED GROUPS EXIST TO CERTIFY GREEN POWER Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Who Certifies Green Power? Several organizations, such as Green Seal, Scientific Certification Systems and Eco-Rating International, are in the business of environmental certification. Green Seal has been active in certifying various consumer household products using life-cycle environmental analysis. The organization sets standards for certification, and manufacturers pay to have their products evaluated. If the product is certified, it may use the Green Seal logo. INDUSTRY SELF-CERTIFICATION CAN BE VERY SUCCESSFUL Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs (1) Develop guidelines for industry self-certification: Stakeholders would meet to develop certification guidelines. With some oversight, green power suppliers would have to certify that they meet all (or perhaps a minimum number) of these guidelines to claim approval. Advocates or competitive suppliers would have to be watchful of advertising and use the threat of public exposure to achieve compliance for questionable claims. This is the loosest approach, but it offers a way to build experience. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Energy Star label for office equipment is one successful self-certifying program for energy-efficient performance. EPA will investigate any Energy Star-labeled product whose performance has been questioned. SIMPLE CERTIFICATION PROGRAM WILL BE WELCOMED AS A WAY TO BUILD CREDIBILITY Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Certification is a value judgement that can be used to provide credibility in marketing and help consumers easily identify preferred power supplies. In developing a certification program, there is a fundamental trade-off between easy-to-use but potentially simplistic on the one hand, and precise and comprehensive but impractical to implement on the other. The following recommendations on implementing certification favor keeping it simple. STANDARD LABELS FOR ELECTRICITY PURCHASES WOULD BE DEVELOPED Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Who would be responsible for the labeling and how would it be done? The electricity suppliers themselves should be responsible for labeling their own products according to a standard format, with penalties for deceptive information or fraud. The information should be provided by each supplier to each of its customers for the brand of electricity being sold and to potential customers as part of advertising or a prospectus. The information should be issued periodically, perhaps quarterly, and updated at least annually. SOLVENCY-GENERAL THE TIME IS NOW TO CHOOSE THE RENEWABLE ENERGY PATH WHILE TIME FRAMES MAY BE LONG, THE CHOICE OF WHETHER TO PURSUE RENEWABLE ENERGY MUST BE MADE NOW! Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs The choice of whether we move toward pollution prevention stick with business as usual is being made today. Globally we are investing well over a trillion dollars a decade in new energy technology and infrastructure – and we will live with the consequences of these choices for decades to come. We have two paths. One is sustainable, profitable, and environmentally sound. The other is short term, costly, and potentially devastating from an environmental and human health perspective. IF WE ACT NOW TO INCREASE RENEWABLE ENERGY, THE FUTURE WILL BE BRIGHT — IF WE DO NOT, IT WILL BE VERY GRIM Christine Ervin Assistant Secretary Energy Efficiency And Renewable Energy, Federal News Service, MARCH 19, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Statement Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs The time to move forward in our commitment to develop a balanced energy portfolio, utilizing the most advanced and efficient energy technologies and renewable energy sources, is now. If we do so, we will be able to enhance our energy security, improve our balance of trade, retain our world-class technology advantage, and secure the energy future for future generations. If we refuse to accept this challenge, we may one day be facing diminished economic opportunities,increasing health and environmental problems, underemployment, an even greater balance of trade deficit, and an uncertain energy supply. THE SOONER WE BEGIN A MAJOR SWITCH TO RENEWABLE ENERGY, THE SOONER WE WILL GAIN THE ADVANTAGES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 4 The sooner we make a high. priority of creating a renewable energy economy the sooner we can begin enjoying all its economic advantages In trade, energy security, employment, and domestic investment. BECAUSE THERE IS NO ENERGY CRISIS, NOW IS THE TIME TO CHANGE POLICES JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. XIII We need energy policies that are both proactive and farsighted. Precisely because we are not currently in an energy crisis, now is the time to reexamine energy issues and set a new course. IF FOSSIL FUEL PROPONENTS ARE WRONG, THE PLANET IS DOOMED. IF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPONENTS ARE WRONG THE BENEFITS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN PREDICTED JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 17 Consider the alternatives: If the proponents of more coal, oil, and natural gas use are wrong, the dire consequences those fuels may cause cannot readily be reversed. However, if proponents of efficiency and renewables are wrong, the world — by erring on the side of prudence — will nonetheless enjoy a cleaner and more efficient energy economy than we have today. Moreover, the longer we feed the world’s fossil-fuel addiction, the harder it will be to overcome. Why indulge in irreversible global climate experiments? Far better to switch as soon as practicable to carbon dioxide-free renewables than to learn too late that we have irrevocably altered weather patterns and destabilized our only climate. MAKING NEW POWER PLANTS BASED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL TURN THE CORNER ON THE USA ENERGY FUTURE, BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE HOPE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPANSION JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 321 Over the next 15 years, the United States is expected to build the equivalent of 180 new large power plants ( 180 gigawatts) at a cost of $150 billion. Were this big new energy demand to be met by renewables, it would help bring down prices for these renewables, greatly enhancing their competitive positions. But unless we act decisively, renewables are expected to make little additional contributions to our energy supply in the next 15 years. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration estimates that under a “business-as-usual” scenario, without intensified support for renewables, the share of our electricity produced by renewables will grow by only 2 percent from 1990 to 2010 (rising from 11 percent to 13 percent, respectively). SOLVENCY-GENERAL RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ARE COST COMPETITIVE TODAY COSTS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY ARE DROPPING AND ARE COMPETITIVE WITH CONVENTIONAL ENERGY SOURCES NOW JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 318 Virtually all renewable technologies are dropping rapidly in cost and improving in efficiency and reliability. Most are already less costly than nuclear power, and several are within 2 cents a kilowatt-hour of new coal plants (even when the costs of coal pollution are neglected along with the multi billion dollar subsidies nuclear and Fossil fuels have received. BY NEGLECTING RENEWABLE ENERGY WE WASTE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS EVERY DECADE JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 12 As I do the sums, the hundreds of billions of dollars in costs we incur annually through energy waste and damage caused by fossil fuels mount up to trillions of dollars a decade. SWITCH TO RENEWABLE ENERGY IS COST COMPETITIVE TODAY LESTER THUROW, Prof. Economics MIT, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. IX In Charging Ahead, John J. Berger documents those threats, calls for a fundamental reorientation of national energy policy, and presents powerful economic arguments for renewable energy and energy efficiency. The energy efficiency investments he describes are cost-effective today, and can save the economy hundreds of billions of dollars. Many investments in renewables are already paying off in the form of clean, reliable, commercial generating technologies. IF THE REAL COSTS OF ENERGY WERE DEMANDED, RENEWABLE ENERGY WOULD FLOURISH! Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs In contrast to conventional energy options, renewable energy technologies exploit a far more vast resource and pose far fewer environmental risks. However, technological progress for renewables still lags behind, although it has been steady and rapid. In order to deploy renewable technologies on a large scale, the time has come for decisive action. The rationale for such action is clear: global energy systems developed their current appetite for fossil fuels only through an economic sleight of hand which permits energy consumers to ignore the staggering environmental costs of their choices. Future energy systems, whether they rely on markets or governmental mandates, must manifest greater economic honesty. Once they do so, we believe that the world will turn increasingly to renewable energy. WHEN YOU COUNT UP ALL THE COSTS, RENEWABLE ENERGY IS THE CHEAPEST Pamela W. Person, vice chairman of the Coalition for Sensible Energy, BANGOR DAILY NEWS (BANGOR, MAINE), April 18, 1997, TITLE: The power to demand more renewable energy What Maine citizens really want // VT98-acs Some are saying that, without the nuclear plants, the “only recourse” are the large polluting coal plants. We say NO! Renewables and energy conservation and efficiency are the only recourses when the total costs for energy production, use and disposal are truly counted — such as health costs, climate change, visibility, acid precipitation, nitrogen saturation, and potential effects on crop, fisheries and forest yield. RENEWABLE ENERGY IS NOW COMPETITIVE WITH CONVENTIONAL FUELS IF THE CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT H.E. CHRISTOS PAPOUTSIS, European Union, RAPID, September 16, 1996. TITLE: “COMMUNITY POLICY ON RENEWABLE SOURCES OFENERGY AND THE WORLD SOLAR SUMMIT PROCESS” // VT98-acs Technological developments in recent years, as well as growing markets, have succeeded in making renewable energy sources cost effective, under the right conditions. And, with use of appropriate technology, they can now be considered as abundant, clean, safe, predictable and reliable sources of energy. COSTS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY Mary Ellen Miles, Special To Real Estate Weekly, The Virginian-Pilot (Norfolk, VA), January 25, 1997, Pg. 04, TITLE: COVER STORY: THEY AREN’T GIVING UP ON THE SUN // VT98-acs In 1960, solar electricity (a panel) was $ 2,000 per watt. In 1970, it was about $ 200 per watt. By 1980, it was down to $ 20, but that was still cost prohibitive. ”Now it’s about $ 5-$ 6 and, on average, wind power is less than $ 2 per watt. So, it is becoming more cost competitive with other sources of energy. SOLVENCY-GENERAL RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ARE TECHNOLOGICALLY WELL DEVELOPED RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT IN THE 21ST CENTURY ARE ALREADY COMMERCIALIZED TODAY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD): THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 4 From a historical perspective, the world today is already on the verge of a monumental energy transformation. A significant number of the wind and solar technologies that will be crucial to the twenty-first century’s power supplies are already operating commercially. RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES EXIST, BUT ARE NOT BEING EXPLOITED H.E. CHRISTOS PAPOUTSIS, European Union, RAPID, September 16, 1996. TITLE: “COMMUNITY POLICY ON RENEWABLE SOURCES OFENERGY AND THE WORLD SOLAR SUMMIT PROCESS” // VT98-acs Renewable sources of energy constitute an economically valuable and environmentally friendly indigenous energy resource. Despite the fact that we have developed the technologies necessary to harness renewable energies, they are far from being fully exploited. THE MAJOR BARRIER FACING RENEWABLE ENERGY IS MARKET PENETRATION, NOT TECHNOLOGY H.E. CHRISTOS PAPOUTSIS, European Union, RAPID, September 16, 1996. TITLE: “COMMUNITY POLICY ON RENEWABLE SOURCES OFENERGY AND THE WORLD SOLAR SUMMIT PROCESS” // VT98-acs The real obstacle, I believe, is not how to solve problems technically, but how to achieve market penetration. We have to inform and convince potential buyers and users of the advantages and reliability of renewable energy sources and technologies. RENEWABLE ENERGY IS AN IMPORTANT FEATURE OF THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE, NOT THE DISTANT FUTURE Christos Papoutsis, EU Commissioner, RAPID, March 21, 1997, TITLE: Speech by Commissioner Christos Papoutsis “Towards a Community action plan for renewable energy sources” // VT98-acs To my mind, there is no doubt that renewable energy, to a large extent, is the future. And I am not speaking of a distant future. SCHLEEDE’S CRITIQUE OF DEPT. OF ENERGY RENEWABLE ENERGY RESEARCH IS FLAWED Lira Behrens, Inside Energy/with Federal Lands, December 9, 1996; Pg. 7, TITLE: DOE DENIES IT INFLATED BENEFITS OF EFFICIENCY, RENEWABLE ENERGY R&D // VT98-acs DOE’s rebuttal said Schleede’s [Glenn Schleede, of Energy Market & Policy Analysis Inc.] statements were unsubstantiated and ”reflect a personal bias that is not supported by the facts.” The department cited a 1996 General Accounting Office study that found five technologies in the DOE energy efficiency portfolio alone have resulted in more than $ 11 billion in consumer savings. ”This is substantially in excess of the entire energy efficiency r&d budget since the inception of DOE,” the department said. SOLVENCY-GENERAL POLICIES TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES CAN BE EASILY IMPLEMENTED ALL OF THE EXISTING BARRIERS TO RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPANSION CAN BE OVERCOME JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 8 While formidable, the barriers to the more rapid spread of renewables are not insurmountable. All could be overcome by enlightened national energy policies that counter special interests, make necessary institutional changes, stimulate the market for renewables and efficiency technology, provide adequate R&D support, and share the risk of small- and medium-sized innovative companies. WHAT THE STEAM ENGINE WAS TO THE 19th CENTURY, WHAT ELECTRICITY WAS TO THE 20TH CENTURY, RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL BE TO THE 21ST CENTURY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 314 What the Newcomen steam engine was to the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and electricity to the twentieth, the synergistic impact of renewable energy, energy efficiency, and electrified transport will be to the twenty-first century. The emanations of the coming renewable energy era are already discernible, just like the first shafts of light at daybreak. RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL BECOME ROUTINIZED INTO OUR LIVES Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs When renewables and efficiency become a routine part of everyday business practice-the way the use of coal and nuclear energy are today-people will find them a customary part of their everyday lives. POLICY MECHANISMS TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN LEAD TO A STRONG FREE STANDING MARKET FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Policy mechanisms such as portfolio standards or universal charges may be necessary to build momentum toward a free-standing market for renewable energy. RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN BE USED TO GENERATE ELECTRICITY Utility Reporter Fuels Energy & Power, January 1, 1997, Headline: Available Capacity Of Transmission Systems In Designated Abundant Renewable Energy Resource Regions // VT98-acs Renewable energy technologies, such as photovoltaics, solar thermal power plants, and wind turbines, are nonconventional environmentally attractive sources of energy that can be considered for electric power generation. RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN BE 50% OF THE WORLD’S ENERGY SUPPLY IN 40 YEARS Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs At the same time, the prospects for renewable energy resources – such as solar, wind, and geothermal – are very promising. They, too, have the potential to reduce the generation of polluting by-products. In one of two planning scenarios recently developed by Royal Dutch/Shell, the most profitable oil company in the world, renewable energy provides nearly half the world’s energy in four to five decades. In a quiet energy revolution that has received little attention in the press, the costs of renewable power have come down dramatically. MAINE IS A MODEL OF WHAT RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN DO — 47% OF ELECTRIC POWER Pamela W. Person, vice chairman of the Coalition for Sensible Energy, BANGOR DAILY NEWS (BANGOR, MAINE), April 18, 1997, TITLE: The power to demand more renewable energy What Maine citizens really want // VT98-acs Maine and federal policy, triggered by the 1970s oil embargoes, encouraged renewabvle and co-generation power production. As a result of these laws, $ 1 billion was invested in Maine between 1980 and 1993 to build 23 renewable energy plants. These plants generated 2,780 jobs, gave towns $ 25 million in local property taxes and the state additional income tax revenue. Estimates show anywhere from $ 57 million to $ 202 million in environmental benefits from reduced air emissions and reducedhealth costs. The net economic benefit to Maine was estimated, in the independent peer-reviewed 1994 Mainewatch study, to be between $ 120 million and $ 220 million in gross domestic product. These plants joined another 98 hdro-electric plants producing electricity to be sold through a utility (Bowater’s large hydro-electric system is not counted). In 1992, renewbles accounted for 47 percent of Maine electric power generation. Maine’s use of oil for electric generation went from 34 to 9 percent. That was a ver good shift for our national security, our lungs, our climate and our state’s economy. SOLVENCY-GENERAL INCREASING RENEWABLE ENERGY USE BENEFITS BOTH THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE ECONOMY RENEWABLE ENERGY IMPROVESD THE ENVIRONMENT, CREATES JOBS, AND REDUCES DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED FUELS The Reuter European Community Report, November 21, 1996, TITLE: EU SAYS RENEWABLE ENERGY GOOD FOR JOBS, IMPORTS // VT98-acs Increased use of renewable energy such as wood, wind, wave and solar power would help improve the environment, create new jobs and reduce dependency on imported fuels, the European Commission said on Thursday. RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN IMPROVE EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH AS WELL AS HELP THE ENVIRONMENT EC Energy Monthly, December 13, 1996, TITLE: Renewables Green Paper focuses on ‘key’ tax incentives // VT98-acs The Commission [European Union Green Paper report] puts forward a variety of reasons for promoting renewables, including the potential to boost rural employment, secure valuable new markets overseas and claw back some indigenous sourcing of energy. The most potent political motivation, however, is the growing obligation to meet international environmental targets. RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRY IS READY TO MEET THE ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL NEEDS OF THE NATION International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, October 21, 1996, TITLE: SUSTAINABLE SUPPORT // VT98-acs More than 500 sustainable energy companies from across the United States this month signed a letter to President Clinton, Department of Energy Secretary Hazel O’Leary and leaders of the House and Senate calling for a greater federal commitment to renewable energy. The letter [Sustainable Energy Coalition] calls sustainable energy “essential if we as a nation are to realize” goals such as protecting the environment, protecting national security, creating jobs and staying competitive in the international market. In the past decade, federal research initiatives have spurred significant cost savings for photovoltaics, wind power, biofuels and geothermal energy. U.S. renewable energy companies are poised to play a major role in the world energy market, which could bring in tens of billions of dollars revenue, the letter stated. THE CHOICE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL STRENGTHEN THE ECONOMY AND IMPROVE THE ENVIRONMENT Eric Vaughn, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, The Stuart News / Port St. Lucie News (Stuart, FL), September 18, 1996, Pg. A9, TITLE: WE NEED TO BREAK OUR OIL HABIT // VT98-acs A domestic energy policy which promotes renewable fuels is long overdue. We need to put a stop to exporting energy jobs and investment overseas. The use of domestic, renewable fuels will strengthen our domestic economy, lower our trade deficit, and secure our energy future for our children. Renewable fuels are a smart choice for the environment. They burn cleaner than gasoline, reduce toxic emissions from automobiles, and reduce global warming. ONLY WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN WE HAVE BOTH ECONOMIC GROWTH AND A SOUND ENVIRONMENT Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Thus, hedging against environmental disaster while pursuing reasonable economic growth seems to require increased exploitation of renewable energy. The lesson of energy modeling is that renewable energy must make substantial contributions to the next century’s energy system in order to make economic growth environmentally sound. USING MORE RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL ENHANCE THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE ECONOMY — TEXAS EXAMPLE PR Newswire, April 14, 1997, TITLE: The Business Community, Renewable Energy Supporters & Legislators Join Forces to Support Energy Independence for Texas // VT98-acs Peter Altman, state director for the sponsoring organization, the Sustainable Energy and Economic Development (SEED) Coalition stated, “Energy independence means that we take advantage of the fact that Texas is number one in energy potential from renewable resources like wind and solar power. Investing in renewable resources creates more jobs in Texas, reduces our reliance on imported fossil fuels, reduces air and water pollution, and makes it easier for Texas cities to meet federal air quality standards.” RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS IMPROVE ENVIRONMENT AND COMPETITIVENESS PR Newswire, January 27, 1997, TITLE: Continued Role for Efficiency & Renewables in New Electricity Marketplace Urged by New England States // VT98-acs Governor Almond noted, “Energy efficiency is important to the economic competitiveness of the New England region, and renewable electric power sources play a positive role in a clean and healthy environment.” SOLVENCY-GENERAL RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES CAN MEET THE ENERGY NEEDS OF THE DEVELOPING WORLD USA RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CAN AVOID THE COMING WORLD ENERGY CRUNCH Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Commercial Appeal (Memphis), September 22, 1996, SECTION: VIEWPOINT, Pg. 4B, TITLE: Oil habit keeps United States entangled with Iraq // VT98-acs THESE ADVANCES can enhance America’s energy independence directly, by fostering a domestic transition from oil. They can contribute indirectly as well by easing the coming global-supply crunch – both by reducing demand in America (which now consumes 25 percent of the world’s oil) and by showing Third World energy users that switching from oil makes economic sense. RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN MEET THE NEEDS OF 2 BILLION PEOPLE WHO LACK POWER FOR THEIR BASIC NEEDS H.E. CHRISTOS PAPOUTSIS, European Union, RAPID, September 16, 1996. TITLE: “COMMUNITY POLICY ON RENEWABLE SOURCES OFENERGY AND THE WORLD SOLAR SUMMIT PROCESS” // VT98-acs As we approach the 21st century, more than 2 billion people are without power for their basic needs. There is a growing energy demand in developing countries, many of whom have good renewable energy resources. Renewable energies are particularly appropriate for providing water, heat and electricity and supporting agricultural and tourism development. And today we have the technology available to make this possible. In environmentally sustainable, and cost effective, ways. RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL BE THE KEY TO DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21st CENTURY H.E. CHRISTOS PAPOUTSIS, European Union, RAPID, September 16, 1996. TITLE: “COMMUNITY POLICY ON RENEWABLE SOURCES OFENERGY AND THE WORLD SOLAR SUMMIT PROCESS” // VT98-acs I would like to leave you with one last thought: Renewable energy sources are the oldest energy sources in the world. We now have some of the most advanced and the most appropriate technologies at our disposal in order to exploit them. I firmly believe that renewable sources of energy will be a key to our development in the 21st century. SOLVENCY-GENERAL ANSWERS TO MOVEMENTS AND ECONOMY DISADVANTAGES SWITCHING TO RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL CHANGE THE AMERICAN MINDSET TO REJECT THE “THROWAWAY” ETHIC JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 315 Today we are a “throwaway society.” We consume resources and discard the resulting waste at a furious rate. Conventional energy systems epitomize the throwaway approach: They burn fuel and produce copious waste. These practices presume both infinite resources and an infinite planetary capacity for assimilating waste. Creating a sustainable energy economy would be a major break with the throwaway approach. Living primarily off efficiently utilized renewable energy income rather than off fossil fuel capital would allow us eventually to achieve not only a clean energy economy but a clean environment and clean industries. WE CAN SWITCH ENERGY SUPPLIES RAPIDLY WITHOUT DAMAGING THE OVERALL ECONOMY, AS HISTORY SHOWS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 319 Historical precedents suggest that major transformations in energy technology and in our energy supply mix have occurred swiftly and without much public management in the past. From about 1920 to 1970, U.S. coal use dropped from 70 percent of our energy supply to less than 20 percent as we shifted to oil. During the 1980s and 1990s, a shift from oil to natural gas occurred. For example, California—which got 25 percent of its electricity from petroleum in 1980—produces less than 1 percent of its power from oil now. Most Californians never noticed the difference. A more rapid and carefully planned shift from fossil fuels to reliance on energy efficiency and renewables could be just as acceptable today as the previous gradual shifts from wood to coal, coal to oil, and oil to gas, all of which occurred within thepast 150 years. COAL AND OIL CAN BE WEANED FROM SUBSIDIES BECAUSE THEY ARE MATURE INDUSTRIES — WE ARE WASTING OUR MONEY Anna Aurilio Staff Scientist U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee Furthermore, the coal and petroleum industries are mature, lucrative industries. At a time of scarce federal dollars, these industries should be weaned from the federal dole. In particular, the $28 billion-a-year coal industry should also be cut off from the public dole. Coal-burning power plants are a major source of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, and are the leading cause of acid rain. Coal-burning power plants have a Clean Air Act incentive to clean up their act. Taxpayers should not be funding a $2.4 billion Clean Coal program or additional coal research and development programs. SOLVENCY-GENERAL OTHER MECHANISMS: CUT SUBSIDIES AND BENEFITS FOR CURRENT ENERGY SOURCES AND GIVE THEM TO RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES WE MUST SWITCH POSITIONS AND PUT RENEWABLE ENERGY FUNDING FIRST, AND FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR LAST JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 316 The decades-old practice of putting fossil fuels .and nuclear power first in federal funding is clearly inappropriate to our national needs as we approach the next millennium, and is counter to the wishes of most Americans. For the United States and for developing nations, renewables and energy efficiency, rather than coal, oil, and gas, are the best hope of building secure, environmentally safe, and economically affordable energy systems. In particular, developing nations that lack an adequate national electricity transmission and distribution grid would find the construction of decentralized renewable energy systems to be economically competitive and generally preferable. BEST POLICY WOULD BE TO CUT SUBSIDIES TO FOSSIL FUELS AND NUCLEAR AND INCREASE THEM FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY Anna Aurilio Staff Scientist U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee As you can see there is plenty of opportunity for budget savings by cutting some of the worst polluter pork programs from DOE’s budget. We do support DOE’s renewable energy and energy efficiency programs which benefit our environment, and in the case of energy efficiency, save consumers money. These programs should be fully funded and supported as a critical pollution prevention and consumer savings measure. Unlike the programs targeted above, these programs are supported by the American public, will lead to real environmental benefits, and represent opportunities for creative entrepreneurs to develop technologies which will help us reduce our reliance on polluting sources of energy. OVER $900 MILLION AVAILABLE IF CLEAN COAL PROJECTS ARE CUT Anna Aurilio Staff Scientist U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee We recommend that no further taxpayer funds be expended on this program. While we were encouraged that Congress cut $123 million in appropriations for the Clean Coal Technology Program, taxpayers would save more than $860 million if Congress terminated projects for which construction has not started or will not start for several years after project selection and those whose prospects for construction are poor. WE NEED TO CUT SUBSIDIES TO FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR FUELS AND INCREASE THEM TO RENEWABLE ENERGY Anna Aurilio Staff Scientist U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee When it comes to energy priorities, the American public is on the right track. We should cut polluter pork programs that hurt our environment such as nuclear, coal and oil programs and support programs which prevent pollution such as renewable energy and energy efficiency programs. 83% WANT OIL TAX BREAKS TO BE DIRECTED TOWARDS RENEWABLE ENERGY 21st Century Fuels, January, 1997, Headline: American Voters Support U.S. Funding Renewables Programs // VT98-acs For the third year in a row, a majority (56%) of all voters, and nearly two-thirds (66%) of those expressing a preference, would give the highest priority to funding the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) renewable energy and energy efficiency research and development programs. While 73% of respondents said that cutting taxes made a difference in how they voted, 52% of voters supported tax incentives for either renewable energy or energy efficiency efforts. As many as 83% of respondents prefer redirecting tax breaks to renewable fuels, while only 10% felt they should continue to be given to oil companies. About 71% support continuing the federal tax exemption for ethanol-blended gasoline, with 20% opposed. “Americans are keenly aware of the dangers posed by our growing dependence on imported oil, and are sending a strong message to Congress that they favor an energy policy that promotes domestically produced, renewable alternatives to oil,” said Eric Vaughn, President of the Renewable Fuels Association. MAJORITY OF PEOPLE SUPPORT GIVING FUNDING AND TAX BREAKS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY OCTANE WEEK, December 23, 1996, TITLE: TWO NEW SURVEYS SHOW AMERICANS SUPPORT CLEANER FUELS // VT98-acs A survey conducted for the Sustainable Energy Coalition by the polling firm of Research/Strategy/ Management, Inc. found that using Department of Energy funds for research in renewables and energy efficiency is supported by 66% of survey respondents. Extending tax breaks to renewable fuels instead of oil and gas exploration and production was backed by 62% of those expressing a preference. SOLVENCY-GENERAL OTHER MECHANISMS: CARBON CONTROL & TRADEABLE PERMITS WILL INCREASE RENEWABLE ENERGY USE CARBON CAPS AND PERMITS WOULD SPUR RENEWABLE ENERGY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 326 One solution to the political impasse over carbon taxes would be to impose progressive carbon emission “caps on fossil fuel burners in conjunction with annual tradable emission permits. The emission limits would be steadily lowered over time to bring emissions from current to target levels and the permits for a set amount of carbon would expire if not used or traded within a year. This system — very similar in concept to the already proven SO2 tradable allowances with a declining cap -would make the air steadily cleaner while making renewables financially more attractive and accelerating the retirement of older dirtier fossil power plants. A very attractive variation on this theme would be to impose the tradable emissions caps on regional transmission groups a transmission network improvement supported by FERC. CARBON EMISSION CHARGES WOULD STIMULATE RENEWABLE ENERGY SIGNIFICANTLY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 325-326 Though a carbon emission charge would discourage pollution from fossil fuels and would help equalize the two sets of technologies, it is currently even more politically infeasible than other surcharges. Were even a very modest carbon fee instituted, it would generate enormous revenue and would make possible reductions in other taxes, including personal income taxes. Like surcharges, it would support investments in renewables and efficiency. The carbon fee would be levied at the point the carbonaceous fuel first entered the economy for conversion to energy fuel used as a chemical ingredient in a final product would not be taxed. Transitional impacts of fuel-price increases on low-income Americans could and should be offset by appropriate direct compensatory payments to affected people and regions. TRADEABLE EMISSIONS APPROACH, WITH INCOME GOING TO TAX CUTS, WOULD SPUR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Utility Environment Report, February 28, 1997: Pg. 1, TITLE: INDUSTRY ‘WELCOMES’ ECONOMISTS’ CALL FOR ACTION TO COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE // VT98-acs The economists’ statement said U.S. policy-makers should consider the use of carbon taxes or marketable emissions permits for trading in international markets to combat climate change. Revenues from the taxes or from auctioning the emissions permits to utilities and other emissions sources can be used to reduce the deficit or to lower existing taxes. To gain the greatest benefit to the economy, Arrow said, revenues should be used to reduce corporate and/or personal income taxes. That would free up money for investment in energy efficient and renewable energy technologies, which would further reduce emissions, Arrow said. FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRIES ARE WILLING TO ACCEPT CARBON TAX OR TRADEABLE EMISSIONS Utility Environment Report, February 28, 1997: Pg. 1, TITLE: INDUSTRY ‘WELCOMES’ ECONOMISTS’ CALL FOR ACTION TO COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE // VT98-acs Despite industry’s long-held position against taxes and other mandates to reduce emissions of gases that are said to be causing global climate change, the chairman of the industry’s lobbying group on the issue said last week the coalition ”welcomes” a Feb. 13 call for action against climate change by more than 2,000 economists, who said the United States could use carbon taxes and/or global emissions trading to reduce greenhouse emissions without harming the economy. The economists, who include six Nobel laureates, signed a brief statement saying the use of such market-based mechanisms as carbon taxes and emissions trading could actually benefit the economy by encouraging energy efficiency and boosting productivity. SOLVENCY-GENERAL OTHER MECHANISMS FOR INCREASING RENEWABLE ENERGY WE SHOULD REQUIRE THAT ALL NEW POWER PLANTS BE BASED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY -IT IS TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 324 Along those lines, a straightforward way to move toward a renewable energy economy would be to institute a 100 percent renewable energy set-aside/portfolio standard, requiring that, with a few exceptions, all new licensed capacity from now on be renewable, and all expanded power purchases be from renewable sources. In 20 to 40 years, once most existing capacity will have been retired, the cumulative effect of the renewable replacements and additions would be the creation of an electricity sector based almost entirely on renewables. Whereas this 100 percent standard for new capacity would be technically feasible, it is currently entry politically infeasible. A standard of 5-10 percent at the beginning, increasing to 25 percent by the year 2010, for example, is much more likely to be politically attainable. The Electricity Consumers’ Power to Choose Act proposes a 2 percent standard that would peak at a mere 4 percent in 2010. TAXATION SHOULD BE SHIFTED FROM LABOR TO ENERGY, STIMULATING BOTH RENEWABLE ENERGY AND INCREASED EMPLOYMENT JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 326 By shifting taxation from labor to energy, a carbon charge or a BTU charge would also make labor less expensive relative to energy and would therefore tend to stimulate both employment and investment. This charge would therefore have a beneficial impact on the economy as a whole, although the fossil fuel and auto industries would oppose it vehemently. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY COALITION PLAN FOR INCREASING RENEWABLE ENERGY The Energy Report, February 10, 1997, TITLE: Renewable Energy Sustainable energy group urges Clinton to back renewables portfolio in bill // VT98-acs In case DOE needs even more suggestions, the Sustainable Energy Coalition forwarded in their letter suggestions for the draft proposal that include: ** Establishment of a nationwide “portfolio standard” to encourage and diversify renewable energy sources including minimum requirements of 2.5% of all generation by 2000, 5% by 2005 and 10% by 2010. ** Creation of a national trust fund to restore funding to its highest previous level and to expand utility and state energy efficiency, renewable energy, low-income energy assistance and sustainable energy research and development by a non-bypassable system benefits charge on local distribution services. ** Honoring of existing Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act contracts, even if PURPA is modified. ** Federal electric utility restructuring legislation should protect consumers against being forced to bear the costs of uneconomic generating facilities, i.e. nuclear plants, “that have been imprudently incurred by electric utilities.” ** There should be no transition charge or other comparable fees imposed on renewables generation or efficiency improvements to pay for recovery of any stranded nuclear costs. ** Funds from stranded-cost recovery should be used to fully fund, in advance, decommissioning and waste disposal accounts for nuclear reactors. SOLVENCY-WIND AMERICA HAS A HUGE SUPPLY OF READILY AVAILABLE WIND ENERGY AMERICA IS THE SAUDI ARABIA OF AVAILABLE WIND ENERGY RESOURCES JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 137 The United States possesses an energy bonanza, yet no dictator, sheik, or oil mogul controls its wells and spigots — or charges by the barrel or ton for wind. America has hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of this free, non depletable resource. We are a Saudi Arabia of wind. USA CAN PRODUCE 150% OF ITS ELECTRICITY NEEDS WITH WIND POWER JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 137 Just with today’s technology, the 48 adjoining states have enough wind energy to produce 4.4 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity a year — more than one and a half times the nation’s 1990 electric power generation.’ Advanced wind technologies soon to be commercially available will more than double the “lower 48’s” capacity. These resource estimates exclude environmentally sensitive sites and the huge potential contributions of Alaska, the Aleutian arc, Hawaii, and offshore areas. Plus, we have economical transmission technologies that can deliver wind power from windy regions, where it is most cost-effective to the rest of the nation. WITHIN A DECADE WIND POWER CAN BE A MAJOR ENERGY SOURCE Europe Energy, October 11, 1996, TITLE: SHARE OF WIND ENERGY PRODUCTION GROWING // VT98-acs Wind power is the world’s fastest growing energy source, rising 150% since 1990, according to an article published by the Worldwatch Institute in Washington. Although it currently generates less than 1% of the world’s electricity, the steady advance of wind power technology suggests that it could become an important energy source – that produces no air pollution, carbon dioxide or acid rain – within the next decade. WIND POWER CAN REPRESENT 20% OF THE GLOBAL TOTAL DENNIS WAMSTED, New Technology Week, September 3, 1996, TITLE: PC-Like Growth Spurt Ahead For Windpower? // VT98-acs Count Christopher Flavin among the optimists. Flavin, vice president for research at the Worldwatch Institute, told reporters !ate last month that windpower “has the potential to meet or exceed the 20 percent of world electricity provided by hydropower.” Windpower currently accounts for less than 1 percent of the world’s electricity generation, and for many that is reason enough to downplay its future importance. But not to Flavin. WIND POWER CAN’T BE 100% OF ENERGY, BUT IT CAN BE A LARGE COMPLEMENT Jonathon Porritt, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS Then, your reliability point is just silly. No one claims that wind power could provide 100 per cent of our energy needs in the UK. It never could. But it can complement other energy sources very effectively. WIND POWER IS THE FUTURE — NUCLEAR IS THE PAST AND FOSSIL FUELS NEED TO BE REPLACED Jonathon Porritt, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS But wind power is a crucial part of the renewable revolution that is about to sweep across the planet. Nuclear power is simply irrelevant; and as almost everyone now accepts, the use of fossil fuels has to be cut if we want to ward off the potential horrors of climate change. WIND ENERGY DISPLACES FUTURE NUCLEAR AND FOSSIL FUEL FACILITIES Jonathon Porritt, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS It’s not that existing plants have to be closed before the end of their operating life, but rather that increased energy efficiency and year-on-year increases in renewable energy sources will remove the need for new fossil fuel or nuclear power stations. It’s a process of displacement, not overnight substitution. SOLVENCY-WIND WIND POWER IS COST COMPETITIVE AS AN ENERGY SOURCE 5 CENTS PER KILOWATT HOUR MAKES WIND POWER COST COMPETITIVE JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 169 At 5 cents a kilowatt-hour, wind power, even without special renewable energy tax credits, is cost competitive with most new hydropower facilities and a range of fossil fuel technologies, including some natural gas and new combined-cycle coal plants. the National Energy WIND POWER IS CHEAPER THAN NUCLEAR, COMPETITIVE WITH COAL, AND CLOSING IN ON NATURAL GAS Jonathon Porritt, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS First, wind power is not uneconomic. Yes, it has enjoyed a subsidy (a tiny fraction, by the way, of the subsidy gobbled up by the nuclear industry over the last 50 years), and that subsidy has helped to bring costs down to the point where it is now cheaper (in pence per kilowatt hour) than nuclear power, getting very close to coal, though still much more expensive than gas. But it’s getting cheaper all the time. WIND IS THE MOST COMMERCIALLY READY OF ALL RENEWABLE ENERGY Utility Environment Report, February 14, 1997; Pg. 11, TITLE: PUC APPROVES PS COLORADO GREEN PRICING PLAN // VT98-acs John Nielsen of the Land and Water Fund said, ”Right now, wind is the most commercially ready renewable technology, and Colorado has a good wind resource. It’s the best chance right now for the state to get a leg up on renewable energy. ” WIND POWER IS ECONOMICALLY COMPETITIVE NOW, ESPECIALLY IF YOU FACTOR IN ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS Tricia Allen, energy campaigner, Friends of the Earth, Financial Times, October 25, 1996,Pg. 20, TITLE: Wind power increasingly competitive // VT98-acs Your analysis that wind power is not yet profitable would be disputed by many wind power developers. In the past six years, as government support through its non-fossil fuel obligation subsidy programme has helped the industry approach the competitive market, the price of wind power has dropped from 11p/Kwh to 4p/Kwh. Wind power now has the potential to be highly competitive in the liberalised electricity market, especially if domestic energy consumers show an interest in purchasing non-polluting energy. Wind power also offers economic benefits, with forecasts of more than 10,000 additional jobs by the year 2005 from onshore wind developments alone. If the cost of conventional energy production included externalities such as damage from acid rain, radioactive waste and the impacts of global climate change, renewable energy would be even more competitive than it already is. WIND POWER IS NOW COMPETITIVE WITH NEW FOSSIL FUEL PLANTS Europe Energy, October 11, 1996, TITLE: SHARE OF WIND ENERGY PRODUCTION GROWING // VT98-acs The [Worldwatch Institute] study indicates that wind power is now competitive with new fossil fuel -fired power plants in windy areas, at 5-7 cents per kilowatt-hour costing the same or less than the range for new coal plants. WIND POWER IS NOW COST COMPETITIVE WITH NUCLEAR AND NEW COAL FIRED PLANTS Paul Brown, Environment Correspondent, The Guardian, September 24, 1996; Pg. 7, TITLE: INGHAM PROTEST BLOWS OUT NATIONAL WIND FARM PLAN // VT98-acs Wind power is now cheaper than nuclear energy, and new coal-fired power stations, but still more expensive than gas, although prices were coming down all the time. WIND POWER IS BY FAR THE CHEAPEST WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE COSTS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND ACID RAIN Paul Brown, Environment Correspondent, The Guardian, September 24, 1996; Pg. 7, TITLE: INGHAM PROTEST BLOWS OUT NATIONAL WIND FARM PLAN // VT98-acs Charles Secrett, executive director of Friends of the Earth, said that if the true costs of global warming and acid rain were included, wind power looked very cheap. It was the most advanced renewable technology. SOLVENCY-WIND WIND POWER IS COST COMPETITIVE AS AN ENERGY SOURCE [P. 2] WITHIN 10 YEARS OF OPERATION WIND FACILITIES ARE THE CHEAPEST ENERGY SOURCE OF ALL American News Service, THE ORLANDO SENTINEL, February 16, 1997; Pg. A17, TITLE: STRIKING A BLOW FOR WIND ENERGY // VT98-acs Cannon of Waverly Light & Power thinks that in the long run, the wind will blow in greater savings than conventional sources of energy. “Wind may cost more today but they ( skeptics) need to realize wind isn’t subject to fuel cost and the inherent changes (in the oil and gas industry). Wind actually becomes the cheapest resource after about 10 years” because fossil fuel prices continue to rise, he said. ONCE FOSSIL FUEL COSTS RISE, WIND WILL BE COMPETITIVE Jonathon Porritt, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS Finally, I have never argued that the wind industry could establish itself here in the UK without subsidies. But once the price of fossil fuels rises to take account of the huge environmental costs their use imposes on us (ie we have the kind of level playing field that Thatcherites such as yourself are always banging on about), then a mature wind industry will indeed be truly competitive without the need for any further subsidy. A PRICE GUARANTEE OF 6 CENTS PER KILOWATT HOUR OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS WILL CREATE A BOOM FOR WIND ENERGY DENNIS WAMSTED, New Technology Week, September 3, 1996, TITLE: PC-Like Growth Spurt Ahead For Windpower? // VT98-acs The ongoing restructuring of the electric power industry, the general overcapacity across the United States, and the bankruptcy filing by windpower developer Kenetech earlier this year all have played a role in dampening the U.S. market for wind, Flavin [Worldwatch Institute] continued. But he remains optimistic, saying that all developers need is a guaranteed price of some 6 cents per kWh over 10 years. Given that, he said, there would be a boom in U.S.-based windpower. BUY-BACK RATES FOR WIND ENERGY WOULD LEAD TO ALL NEW ELECTRIC FACILITIES BEING WIND POWERED JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 187 The United States could easily make new wind capacity the most desirable generation option by guaranteeing premium buy back rates to producers of wind power and other renewable energy products. Renewables would not just be the cleanest new energy, but the most profitable. With this “market pull,” the private sector, not the government, would voluntarily supply most of the capital to provide all new electrical capacity from renewable sources. Intelligently crafted economic incentives would eventually pay for themselves in avoided health and environmental damages, in foregone fossil fuel subsidies, in new domestic jobs, in export revenue. As wind farm capacity was installed and paid for, incentives would be phased out. The nation would be left with pollution-free, fuel-free, renewable wind electric power. SOLVENCY-WIND WIND POWER IS A SUPERIOR ENERGY SOURCE — COMPLAINTS ABOUT IT ARE INSIGNIFICANT WIND POWER IS THE BEST RENEWABLE ENERGY TO USE TO COMBAT GLOBAL WARMING CRISPIN AUBREY, The Independent, October 27, 1996, Page 44, TITLE: THE GREAT CALIFORNIA WIND RUSH; THE BROADER PICTURE // VT98-acs Of all the sources of renewable energy currently being refined in response to the threat of global warming, wind has proved among the cheapest, the most efficient and, in general, the most popular. According to a recent report by Washington’s prestigious Worldwatch Institute, wind power is now the world’s fastest-growing energy source, with almost as much new wind power as new nuclear capacity coming on stream worldwide in 1995. 100 KILOWATT/HOURS OF WIND ENERGY IS THE SAME AS NOT DRIVING 2400 MILES OR PLANTING HALF AN ACRE OF TREES Rebecca Cantwell; Rocky Mountain News Staff Writer, Rocky Mountain News, March 21, 1997, Pg. 7B, TITLE: Public Service to sell wind power ‘Green’ electricity source to get premium price from customers // VT98-acs Buying a 100-kilowatt-hour block of Windsource each month for a year has the same environmental benefits as not driving a car 2,400 miles or planting a half-acre of trees, utility officials say. “UNRELIABLE” CHARGE AGAINST WIND POWER IS A BOGUS ARGUMENT — IT IS NEVER USED AGAINST NUCLEAR, WHICH HAS CONSTANT SHUT DOWNS THE ELECTRICITY DAILY, September 19, 1996, TITLE: Groups Dispute IOU Wind Claims // VT98-acs “Essentially, the argument is that the intermittency of wind requires back-up to ensure reliability,” says the letter from Randall Swisher, AWEA executive director, and Karl Rabago, EDF energy program manager. “Note: somehow there is no assertion that nuclear power requires back-up even though the South Texas nuclear project, of which (CSW subsidiary) Central Power & Light is a part owner, was shut down for more than a year. We are unaware that there is any site in Texas suitable for wind energy development where the wind failed to blow continuously for more than a year.” WIND POWER DOES NOT REQUIRE DEVELOPMENT OF EXPENSIVE BACK UP FACILITIES THE ELECTRICITY DAILY, September 19, 1996, TITLE: Groups Dispute IOU Wind Claims // VT98-acs The letter was prompted by recent CSW deliberative polls this summer in Texas and Louisiana during which participants were told that renewable wind energy requires these additional back-up costs, say Swisher and Rabago. They call this an “erroneous claim” and say that, according to a paper presented to the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers by Robert Putnam of Electrotek Concepts, reserve power is only needed if wind reaches a level of 5 percent of annual electric generation. “In Texas that would mean our utilities and independent power producers could install 3,400 MW of new wind power resources before we have to deal with the issue of additional back-up power,” they wrote. NO ONE HAS EVER BEEN HURT BY A WIND TURBINE BLADE FLYING OFF William Chisholm, The Scotsman, September 23, 1996, Pg. 7, TITLE: Wind-farm objectors claim blades liable to fail // VT98-acs Chris Shears, the man in charge of the RES proposals at Soutra, said: “There are over 20,000 wind turbines operating worldwide, including many in urban areas. There has been no example of an injury to a member of the public. Put simply, no generating source is safer than wind power to the local and global environment.” SOLVENCY-WIND ARGUMENT THAT WINDMILLS CAUSE LANDSCAPE POLLUTION IS ABSURD WIND TURBINES IN THE SKY CAN BE BEAUTIFUL IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT Jonathon Porritt, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS As to aesthetics, you hate wind turbines and I love them. To you, they’re lavatory brushes in the sky. To me they’re beautiful and compelling symbols of an efficient, sustainable future. But as I have asked you before, why aren’t you campaigning with equal bombast to rid this country of the scourge of electricity pylons? WIND POWER CAN AVOID LANDSCAPE PROBLEMS Jonathon Porritt, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS But unlike Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace and my own organisation, Forum for the Future, they are not thinking about the whole picture, merely about the aesthetic and landscape issues. Important though these are, they are nonetheless subjective and often very narrowly focused. What’s more, with sensitive siting, following strict planning guidelines, these concerns can and are being addressed. And of course you grossly exaggerate the level of opposition to wind farms. A whole string of independent surveys have shown that on average around eight out of 10 residents support their local wind farm. MOST PEOPLE LIKE WINDMILLS IN THEIR COMMUNITIES CRISPIN AUBREY, The Independent, October 27, 1996, Page 44, TITLE: THE GREAT CALIFORNIA WIND RUSH; THE BROADER PICTURE // VT98-acs “There are a few people who still don’t like the turbines on the ridges,” says Paul Gipe, a locally based author and expert on wind energy. “But the majority see the wind industry as part of the local community, providing jobs and income.” VALUES OF WIND ENERGY OUTWEIGHS LANDSCAPE AESTHETICS CRISPIN AUBREY, The Independent, October 27, 1996, Page 44, TITLE: THE GREAT CALIFORNIA WIND RUSH; THE BROADER PICTURE // VT98-acs Already, vociferous opponents have scuppered numerous recent planning applications, leaving the wind enthusiasts frustrated. And yet, as the Tehachapi turbines show, there is no reason why a hilltop wind farm should not have a mysterious beauty of its own. In any case, says the BWEA’s Ian Mays, “to concentrate just on aesthetics is missing the point. The real dangers come from the environmental damage caused by burning fossil fuels. Wind is clean, natural and economic. We should be seizing the opportunity.” ! PROTECTING SCENERY FROM WINDMILLS IS TRADING OFF WITH FIGHTING GLOBAL WARMING Severin Carrell Environment Correspondent, Scotland on Sunday, March 16, 1997, Pg. 8, TITLE: Storm blows up over wind farms // VT98-acs It seemed a clear signal that protecting rural scenery now weighs heavily against attempts to find long-term solutions to the rise in global warming by replacing the fossil fuel-burning power stations which are helping to push up world temperatures by 0.2% a year. SOLVENCY-SOLAR SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC [PV] SYSTEMS ARE EFFECTIVE ENERGY SOURCES HOW SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS WORK JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 48 Solar cells are tiny electric engines that seem miraculously to produceelectricity out of nothing. You don’t need to fill them with gas, load them with nuclear fuel, or rub them between your hands and make a wish. They have no moving parts to wear out, and they don’t run down like batteries. Mounted in glass panels, they are strong enough to withstand a hailstorm but can be made thin and flexible enough to roll on a spool like newsprint. Through a phenomenon called the “photovoltaic effect,” they can provide power on a milliwatt scale for the delicate movement of a watch, or for a million-watt power plant that helps meet a city’s electrical needs. SOLAR CELL POWER IS THE DREAM POWER SOURCE -PERFECT IN EVERY WAY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 54-55 Solar cells are truly a dream power source. They are silent, highly reliable, portable, convenient, risk- free, pollution-free, fuel-free, recyclable, technologically elegant, suitable for utility or customer use, mass producible, long-lived, and thoroughly compatible with a sustainable economy. In addition, solar cell peak output, which occurs when the sun shines brightest, often matches utility summer peak- power-demand patterns for air conditioning , thereby increasing the value of their energy. CONVENTIONAL ELECTRIC PLANTS TAKE 10-12 YEARS, SOLAR POWER CELL PLANTS TAKE ONE YEAR JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 49 Although large coal and nuclear power plants may take 10 or 12 years to site and construct, a clean solar-cell power plant can be built in less than a year. SOLVENCY-SOLAR SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS ARE COMMERCIALLY VIABLE SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS ARE NOW COMPETITIVE WITH GRID DELIVERED POWER Frank Bevc; Samuel Harkness, Power Engineering, October, 1996; Pg. 47; TITLE: Darwinism determines technological survivors; Special Centennial Issue; The Next Century of Power Generation: A Look Ahead // VT98-acs Solar photovoltaics – production quantities for solar cells are finally reaching levels that allow them to become economically competitive with grid delivered power in larger areas of the United States. Efficiencies are slowly climbing upward, but lower production costs will enable broader use. $3 PER PEAK WATT IS THE COMMERCIAL VIABILITY THRESHOLD FOR SOLAR CELL POWER JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 57 The DOE-sanctioned UPVG regards $3 per peak watt as a probable threshold for PV to enter vast new markets. According to their study, Photovoltaics: On the Verge of Commercialization, at $3 per peak watt, the potential exists for nearly 9,000 megawatts in near-term domestic PV sales in some ten specific markets. That represents potential revenues of $27 billion. For comparison, worldwide PV sales in 1995 were only on the order of 80 megawatts. 1997 SOLAR CELL COSTS OF $3 PER PEAK WATT ARE HEADED FOR $1 PER PEAK WATT SOON JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 57 During the technology’s short history — despite vacillating government support — PV module costs have already plummeted from $1,000 per peak watt in the 1950s to about $4 per peak watt in l996. Costs of $3 per peak watt are expected in 1997. One company, Energy Conversion Devices, was even projecting in 1996 that by mid-1999, its manufacturing process would make solar panels for a mere dollar a watt. PHOTOVOLTAICS ARE AT 10 CENTS PER KILOWATT HOUR AND SOON WILL BE LESS THAN 5 CENTS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OK; RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 89 “Electricity costing less than ten cents a kilowatt-hour can be generated using PV concentrator technology, and less than five cents a kilowatt-hour is quite possible.” -Eldon Boes and Antonio Luque INCREASED ECONOMIES OF SCALE WOULD HELP PHOTOVOLATIC ELECTRICITY SOURCES Oliver Morgan, MAIL ON SUNDAY, February 09, 1997: Pg. 8, TITLE: New dawn beckons if the world turns to the sun // VT98-acs The key to bringing down costs is volume. The annual sales of PV systems are tiny – a total of some 90 megawatts of capacity – about a tenth of the size of an average power station. With such small sales, the systems are expensive to buy, and the pay-back periods very long. HUGE AND RAPID DROP IN PRICE FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY GENERATION John J. Monahan, SUNDAY TELEGRAM, February 2, 1997; Pg. B5; TITLE: America should spiral out of shadow and use sun’s power // VT98-acs [John T. O'Connor, president of Greenworks Inc., and co-author] Technical advancements in photovoltaics has been very rapid in recent years. PV cells in the mid-1950s cost $ 600 per peak watt of power. A startling decline in price brought that down to $ 150 per watt in 1970. Today, PV cells cost about $ 1.75 per peak watt and are closing in on the still lower cost of fossil fuel wattage. Now, the authors write, the price of a 10-by-10-foot PV array, enough to generate enough electricity for an energy-efficient household, has fallen from $ 16,000 in 1980 to about $ 5,000 last year. PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR TECHNOLOGY HAS MADE A NEW EFFICIENCY BREAKTHROUGH PR Newswire, October 28, 1996, TITLE: New World Record Sustains U.S. Leadership in Photovoltaic Technology // VT98-acs A new world record in converting sunlight to electricity using a thin-film solar cell has been achieved by United Solar Systems Corp. (United Solar), an American joint venture between Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (ECD) (Nasdaq: ENER) and Canon Inc. (Nasdaq: CANNY) The record 14.5 percent initial conversion efficiency, announced by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), was achieved on a multijunction, amorphous silicon alloy solar cell. SOLVENCY-SOLAR SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS ARE COMMERCIALLY VIABLE [P. 2] NEW BREAKTHROUGH WILL ALLOW PHOTOVOLTAICS TO BE USED AS ROOFING MATERIAL PR Newswire, October 28, 1996, TITLE: New World Record Sustains U.S. Leadership in Photovoltaic Technology // VT98-acs The world will require more electrical generating capacity in the next 25 years than was built over the last century. Photovoltaics, the conversion of sunlight directly into electricity, is one of the most environmentally safe, renewable energy options to meet these needs. Solar panels using thin films of semiconductor materials are widely recognized as the best way to bring down the cost of solar electricity. Stanford R. Ovshinsky, President and CEO of ECD, stated, “The demonstration of this world record efficiency is another landmark paving the way for utilization of photovoltaics for applications such as the solar roofing shingles and solar metal roofing developed by ECD/United Solar under DOE’s PV:BONUS Program for the huge housing and utility markets.” NEW PHOTOVOLTAIC BREAKTHROUGH PROVIDES SUBSTANTIAL COST REDUCTIONS PR Newswire, October 28, 1996, TITLE: New World Record Sustains U.S. Leadership in Photovoltaic Technology // VT98-acs Technological advances leading to an increase in initial solar cell conversion efficiency pave the way for improving the final, stabilized conversion efficiency of the amorphous silicon solar module, the product which reaches the consumer. In 1994, United Solar/ECD and DOE jointly announced United Solar’s achievement of 10.2 percent stable module efficiency, a critical milestone in the drive to develop a low-cost practical solar technology. That achievement was based on a 13 percent initial cell efficiency. Earlier this year, United Solar and DOE also announced the achievement of stable cell efficiency of 11.8 percent (13.2 percent initial efficiency). The new record of 14.5 percent is a significant increase and will form the basis for substantially improved final product performance and cost reduction. $600 CAN BUY A PORTABLE SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEM WHICH CAN RUN A HOUSEHOLD Ralph Carr, Deutsche Presse-Agentur, September 20, 1996, TITLE: World Solar Summit termed a disappointment by people who need it most // VT98-acs Just 600 dollars, with 15 per cent down, at 15 per cent interest and paid over three years, buys the cheapest solar kit, comprising a photo-voltaic panel, a 12-volt battery and a converter box that will energise three light bulbs, a radio and a television. Next year the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (ZESA) hopes to take over the UNDP system and to become the first public power utility in the world to supply consumers with power by selling them solar electricity kits. PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY IS BECOMING COMPETITIVE, AND SOON WILL BE A $300 BILLION A YEAR MARKET Joseph J. Romm, Christine A. Ervin, Public Health Reports, September 19, 1996; Pg. 390; TITLE: How energy policies affect public health; includes related information // VT98-acs For example, since 1980, research funded by DOE has brought down the cost of photovoltaic (PV) electricity from sunlight by a factor of five to under 20 cents per kilowatthour. This price is already competitive for developing countries that haven’t yet built an extensive and expensive electricity grid. The sales of PVs have been rising steadily, and reached $ 300 million last year. With continued research, development, and economies of scale from increased market share, PV electricity will continue to decline in price for decades. PVs may have a market of $ 300 billion per year in the middle of the next century, if Shell’s scenario proves true. INCREASED PHOTOVOLTAIC EFFICIENCY MEANS LOWER COSTS Gail Robinson, Electronic Engineering Times, April 21, 1997, TITLE: Triple-cell structure ups solar efficiency — Union Solar researchers pursue consumer-friendly solar-energy systems // VT98-acs Stabilized efficiency, which relates to the conversion of sunlight into electricity, is key for producing components at low cost. “If you can double the efficiency, then you can cut the cost in about half,” said Jeffrey Yang, director of R&D at United Solar Systems, a joint- venture company formed by Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (Troy, Mich.) and Canon USA (Lake Success, N. Y.). The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), which is providing funding to the program, is currently pushing to see modules with efficiencies of 15 percent by 2005. SOLVENCY-SOLAR SOLAR THERMAL PLANTS CAN PRODUCE ENERGY DIRECTLY RENEWABLE ENERGY FROM SOLAR THERMAL PLANTS CAN PROVIDE ALL THE RENEWABLE ENERGY THE USA NEEDS EASILY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 38 If state-of-the-art solar thermal plants were deployed in sufficient numbers, and if energy storage, backup fuel capability, and transmission facilities were provided, the new plants could deliver as much electricity as we need. Plentiful desert sites exist in Arizona, southern California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Texas, and in Mexico’s Gran Desierto, not far from the U.S. border. The sun in all these areas is strong year-round, the skies are clear, and land costs are low. Long-distance power transmission is not a major obstacle: Electricity from hydro plants in British Columbia is currently sent more than 2,000 miles to customers in Los Angeles and the Mid-Atlantic States. Solar plants in central Texas could deliver current to much of the Midwest. ALL THE USA’S ELECTRICITY COULD BE PROVIDED BY SOLAR THERMAL PLANTS AT ONLY TWO DESERT SITES JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 38 As former LUZ chairman Newton Becker points out, “All the electrical capacity of the United States could be replaced by our last-generation solar collectors put onto two places: Edwards Air Force Base, near Los Angeles in the Mojave Desert, which is roughly 20 miles by 20 miles, and the White Sands [New Mexico] proving grounds.” SOLVENCY-SOLAR SOLAR POWER CAN SOLVE THE ENERGY CRISIS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD SOLAR POWER IS THE ANSWER TO THE ENERGY NEEDS OF THE DEVELOPING WORLD Air/Water Pollution Report’s Environment Week, September 23, 1996, TITLE: Western Nations Criticized for Failing To Promote Solar, Other Renewables // VT98-acs Solar power in sun-drenched Africa may be the answer to that continent’s energy-supply limitations, according to the U.N. Educational, Scientific & Cultural Organization. “More than 2 billion people in these countries have energy supplies that can barely meet their basic needs,” says the World Solar Program, UNESCO’s initiative to promote renewable energy sources for the world’s poorest regions. SOLAR POWER IS MORE COST EFFECTIVE IN NATIONS WHICH LACK A TRANSMISSION GRID FOR ELECTRICITY Gary Lee, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post, September 25, 1996, Pg. A03, TITLE: Government Researchers Fear Budget Cuts Will Cool Solar Energy Work // VT98-acs By the year 2000, the United States is aiming to double its sales of solar products, according to a joint initiative between the Energy Department and the nation’s major electric utilities. Much of that increase will be composed of exports to developing countries, where an estimated 2 billion people, about a third of the population of the globe, have no electricity at home, according to United Nations estimates. India, Brazil, Indonesia and Kenya are considered the biggest potential export markets. The lack of an electric transmission grid in many areas of these countries makes solar power more cost-effective than alternative sources. SOLAR POWER CELLS ARE ECONOMICAL FOR REMOTE LOCATIONS SO THAT POWER LINES DO NOT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED Michael Booth, Denver Post Staff Writer, The Denver Post, January 17, 1997; Pg. C-01, TITLE: Move on to harness sun Ranchers find solar power economical // VT98-acs While major solar conversions have not yet proven as economically sound for urban and suburban homes, solar cells have become more efficient and are winning support for remote uses when it would cost far more to extend a traditional power line. RURAL USES OF SOLAR WILL CREATE ENOUGH OF A MARKET TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ECONOMIES OF SCALE Bill Schroer, The Denver Post, February 10, 1997; Pg. C-02, TITLE: Renewable energy matures Colorado’s high plains well-suited for solar, wind and biomass power // VT98-acs Solar power now is the economical choice for other applications in outlying areas off the utility grid, including energy for home use. So the lone prairie, with its vastness romanticized by some, cursed by others, provides the essential conditions to accelerate solar-electricity development. Because solar power is technology-dependent, its price can be prohibitive until mass-production economies of scale are achieved. Greater demand for solar energy also boosts competition, which further reduces price. HUGE NUMBER OF FARM ENERGY NEEDS CAN BE MET BY SOLAR Joseph B. Verrengia; Rocky Mountain News Science Writer, Rocky Mountain News, January 19, 1997, Pg. 59A, TITLE: Pumping renewable energy Promoters emphasize financial advantage to rural Coloradans, but few get the message // VT98-acs With a few modifications, engineers have taken standard ranch equipment, connected their small solar panels or solar-charged batteries and made the tools self-sustaining and nonpolluting. Farm applications include illuminating barns, running heaters to keep young livestock warm, powering aeration fans in grain storage, running automatic feeders and pumping irrigation water. SOLAR AND OTHER FORMS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE ATTRACTIVE FOIR AGRICULTURAL USES Joseph B. Verrengia; Rocky Mountain News Science Writer, Rocky Mountain News, January 19, 1997, Pg. 59A, TITLE: Pumping renewable energy Promoters emphasize financial advantage to rural Coloradans, but few get the message // VT98-acs Solar power and other renewable energy systems generate far less pollution than coal-fired power plants. But it is eventual cost savings that is helping a new generation of efficient and reliable renewable energy systems edge into agricultural markets. SOLVENCY-BIOMASS BIOMASS ENERGY SYSTEMS ARE AVAILABLE AND EFFECTIVE INTEGRATED BIOMASS SYSTEMS CAN HAVE HUGE ADVANTAGES FOR ALL AREAS OF CONCERN JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 216 Through the alchemy of modern biochemistry allied with sustainable agriculture, integrated biomass systems can improve air quality, reduce global warming, save landfill space, support new industries, protect forests, produce new products, create new jobs, lower consumer energy costs, increase agricultural income, reduce farm subsidies, diversify energy supplies, reduce dependence on foreign oil, improve the balance of payments, reclaim abused land, and promote rural regional development. All told, not a bad balance sheet — but only one example of the huge payoffs possible if we work with nature to create renewable energy systems. HOW BIOMASS ENERGY WORKS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 191 Biomass literally means living matter, but is used to refer both to plant and animal tissue and to substances derived from them, including animal waste and the organic (carbon containing) portion of municipal waste. HOW BIOGAS FROM ANIMAL WASTE WORKS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 192 Another option would be for manure from livestock to be biologically decomposed by microorganisms in the absence of oxygen to form methane in a local biogas plant. Residue from the process can be used as fertilizer. The gas produced by the anaerobic digestion can be burned for process heat or to produce electricity in a combustion turbine power plant, or compressed and upgraded for distribution through natural gas pipelines, or used to make power in a clean fuel cell. On-site uses of the power and heat tend to be most economical, especially when credits are accorded for waste manure conversion. BIOFUELS PROMISE CLEAN, ABUNDANT, ECNOMICAL TRANSPORTATION ENERGY Eric Vaughn, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, The Stuart News / Port St. Lucie News (Stuart, FL), September 18, 1996, Pg. A9, TITLE: WE NEED TO BREAK OUR OIL HABIT // VT98-acs Many urban areas battling air quality problems are operating fleets on alternative fuels such as compressed natural gas, propane, biodiesel and ethanol. We need to continue to promote domestic energy sources in an effort to break our foreign oil habit. Renewable fuels can play a central role in this policy. Fuels such as ethanol, made from corn, and biodiesel, made from soybeans, offer the promise of domestically produced energy that is abundant, affordable and clean. BIOMASS FUELS CAN BE MADE FROM DISCARDED ORGANIC WASTE PRODUCTS Eric Vaughn, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, The Stuart News / Port St. Lucie News (Stuart, FL), September 18, 1996, Pg. A9, TITLE: WE NEED TO BREAK OUR OIL HABIT // VT98-acs There is also potential for making ethanol from biomass, which includes waste products like corn fiber, rice straw, sawdust, pulp and paper sludge, and yard clippings – or from energy crops such as switch grass, other prairie grasses and fast-growing trees. These sources offer an opportunity for new jobs for the rural economy, as well as environmental benefits through reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. CELLULOSE ETHANOL FUELS ARE THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM OF CHOICE OXY-FUEL NEWS, January 13, 1997, TITLE: CELLULOSE-TO-ETHANOL PLANTS OFFER EFFICIENCY, LOWER EMISSIONS // VT98-acs “If annual ethanol sales expand beyond 2 billion gallons, cellulosic crops, not starch, will probably become the feedstock of choice,” said the ILSR report. But while ethanol continues to grow regardless of the feedstock, U.S. ethanol sales over the past five years (see graph) do not indicate the U.S. is close to reaching that level of demand. “If there was a nationwide RFG fuel standard and ethanol captured 30% of the oxygenate market it would be the equivalent to 2 billion gallons of ethanol,” noted Burl Haigwood, consultant for Information Resources, Inc. SOLVENCY-BIOMASS BIOMASS POWER IS COST EFFECTIVE PINE POWERED GASIFICATION IS COST EFFECTIVE International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, October 21, 1996, TITLE: Biomass: Studies Show Economic Compatibility, Local Benefits of Renewable Projects // VT98-acs A joint study by Weyerhaeuser, Amoco, Carolina Power and Light and Stone and Webster concluded that a pine-powered gasification system combined cycle plant heat rate compares favorably with typical utility system overall heat rates, the paper said. The study also found the system to be compatible with a new coal-fired power plant 300 megawatts (mw) in size, producing 10,500-11,000 British Thermal Units (Btu) per kWh and a conventional biomass-fueled fluid bed boiler system of similar capacity. CELLULOSE BASED ETHANOL CAN COMPETE WITH GASOLINE BY 2010 Robert Greene, Austin American-Statesman, October 13, 1996; Pg. K3, TITLE: More bucks sought for biofuels research; Advocates say fuel from farmlands could fill good chunk of U.S. gasoline needs // VT98-acs Technology to get ethanol from chaff, cobs and stalks and other cellulosic sources rather than the starchy grain is making lower- cost biofuels more feasible, Romm [Joseph Romm, the Energy Department's deputy assistant secretary for renewable energy] said. Ethanol could compete with gasoline by 2010, assuming a price of oil of $24 a barrel — and with no subsidies, Romm said. Right now, gasoline with ethanol gets a fuel tax break of 5.4 cents a gallon. SOLVENCY-BIOMASS BIOMASS ENERGY FIGHTS GLOBAL WARMING AND OTHER HARMS OF FOSSIL FUELS BIOMASS ENERGY DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE CARBON TO GLOBAL WARMING JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 197 One of the great advantages of biomass energy is that, except for the fossil fuel energy used in growing or processing biomass, the conversion of biomass to energy need not add any net carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Plants use natural solar energy collectors — leaves — to capture energy with which to conduct photosynthesis. In photosynthesis, plants remove carbon dioxide from the air, combine it with water, and produce oxygen and carbohydrates. If biomass is produced sustainably, so the biomass harvested and converted to energy is constantly replaced through new plant growth, then the amount of carbon released during the combustion of biomass is equal to the carbon removed from the air during the photosynthesis that was responsible for its formation. Thus, no net increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide results, so the sustainable use of biomass energy does not significantly contribute to global warming. WOOD BIOMASS ENERGY REDUCES AIR POLLUTION AND GLOBAL WARMING Kenneth E Skog, Forest Products Journal, February 1997, Pg. 63-69; TITLE: United States wood biomass for energy and chemicals // VT98-ACS Replacement of oil and coal with wood biomass for generating energy can have local and global effects. Local effects of burning wood include reduction in pollutants emitted to the atmosphere, such as reduced sulfur dioxide in biomass power plants compared to those using coal or oil. Emission factors for renewable fuels such as ethanol and methanol are complex and depend on the fuel mixture and application. Reductions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide in liquid fuels from biomass compared to petroleum can be achieved. In recent years, concerns have escalated about global climate change as a result of burning fossil fuels and deforestation. Scientists have predicted that increases in so-called “greenhouse gases” such as carbon dioxide, methane, and fluorocarbons could increase the average global temperature by 3degC by the year 2100 (19). Carbon dioxide is the greatest contributor to global warming. Forest biomass can serve as a fossil fuel offset, or carbon sink. If grown and used on a renewable basis, forest biomass can mitigate rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. ETHANOL-CELLULOSE VEHICLES REDUCE GREENHOUSE GASES OXY-FUEL NEWS, January 13, 1997, TITLE: CELLULOSE-TO-ETHANOL PLANTS OFFER EFFICIENCY, LOWER EMISSIONS // VT98-acs If the ethanol industry can reduce the amount of energy used to produce ethanol — and therefore the emissions from the process — it could offer itself as a truly greenhouse- friendly fuel, according to experts. When looking at the total life-cycle, the most energyefficient plants are cellulosic-to-ethanol, and the entire ethanol industry could be moving in that direction. One reason why cellulosic ethanol is so efficient is that it uses renewable energy. “If an integrated ethanol production and utilization cycle is considered, such as exists in Brazil, the CO2 released during the cycle is continuously counterbalanced by the CO2 uptake during sugar cane growth, through photosynthesis,” said a report done Gabriel Murgel Branco and Alfred Szwarc experts from CETESB, the Sao Paulo State Environmental Protection Agency. “Therefore, each ethanol vehicle, that substitutes for a gasoline or diesel vehicle, ’saves’ the CO2 emissions which would have been emitted.” BIOMASS INCINERATION REDUCES NET CO2 EMISSIONS EC Energy Monthly, December 13, 1996, TITLE: Renewables Green Paper focuses on ‘key’ tax incentives // VT98-acs Waste incineration, a major element in a number of member states’ biomass resource, produces CO2 and other emissions ‘but in a controlled incineration process, these can be minimised’. [European Union Green Paper report] BIOMASS ETHANOL FUELS CAN REDUCE DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED OIL ROBERT GREENE, The Associated Press, The Record, October 6, 1996; Pg. A13, TITLE: AGRICULTURAL CROPS SEEN AS FUEL FOR THE FUTURE // VT98-acs Ethanol from hay, brewery grains, and rice straw may one day power more cars, buses, and generators, as researchers and entrepreneurs seek ways to harvest fuel from U.S. farmland. No one expects plant-based fuels to wean the United States from imported oil, which caused $ 47 billion to be shipped abroad last year. But supporters of government tax and research help for so-called biofuels say the country could go a long way toward blunting the Middle Eastern oil weapon while helping farmers and cleaning the air. SOLVENCY-BIOMASS BIOMASS ENERGY FIGHTS GLOBAL WARMING AND OTHER HARMS OF FOSSIL FUELS [P. 2] BIOMASS ENERGY SYSTEMS WILL BOLSTER LOCAL ECONOMIES International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, October 21, 1996, TITLE: Biomass: Studies Show Economic Compatibility, Local Benefits of Renewable Projects // VT98-acs It is clear from the studies that in most cases, a biomass feedstock supply system is not only feasible, but would greatly aid the local economy and environment, Craig and Reed concluded. The studies also contributed significantly to reducing uncertainty of capital costs for biomass energy systems, they asserted. BIOMASS ENERGY SYSTEMS WOULD BENEFIT FARMS AND AGRICULTURE’S IMPACT ON THE ECOSYSTEM JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 192-193 Once energy crops become more cost competitive with fossil fuels, the future farm might raise fast-growing trees and towering stands of perennial native grasses for energy production. The deep-rooting grasses and trees would also shelter edible row crops from the wind and would rebuild marginal soils in which food crops could later be grown. In addition, the shelter belts would provide wildlife habitat and would protect streams, lakes, and ground water by intercepting chemical runoff from cultivated fields. BIOMASS OPPORTUNITIES WOULD HELP FARMERS ECONOMICALLY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 192 The ethanol plant, in turn, could earn the farmers money from the sale of ethanol transportation fuels, intermediate chemicals, solvents, and fuel additives, as well as from fertilizer for crops and nutritious feed for livestock, made from ethanol distillation by- products Other co-located processing plants could boost farm revenues by synthesizing a variety of useful goods, such as pharmaceuticals or even plastics, from the farm’s biomass. BIOMASS ENERGY COULD REJUVENATE FARMS TO MULTI PRODUCTION FACILITIES JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 191-192 Thanks to the possibilities inherent in biomass a revolutionary change may be in store for American agriculture. Tomorrow’s large farm might one day be an integrated agro-industrial complex, rather than just a place where food, feed, or fiber is grown. These super farms might also produce energy crops and process them profitably into industrial chemicals, non-fossil fuels, and electricity. BIOMASS ENERGY FACILITIES WOULD REJUVENATE OTHER AGRICULTURAL FACILITIES AS WELL JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OP RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 192 Through careful planning these processing complexes could conduct their agricultural and industrial activities synergistically, efficiently, and ecologically. A locally owned power plant, for example, could burn wood wastes from nearby farms and return clean ash to enrich the soils, thereby also solving a potential waste disposal problem. SOLVENCY-BIOMASS LANDFILL GAS CAN SERVE AS AN ENERGY SOURCE HOW LANDFILL GAS FORMS Joseph Edwin, New Straits Times, January 21, 1997; Pg. 5, TITLE: Generating electricity from trash // VT98-acs When municipal waste is pushed into a landfilled site, it decomposes, giving off a mixture of methane and carbon dioxide. This has been a nuisance in the past; it can explode and both methane and carbon dioxide are greenhouse gases. LANDFILL GAS EXPLAINED Universal News Services, November 27, 1996, TITLE: LANDFILL GAS A WORLD-BEATING SUCCESS SAYS RICHARD PAGE // VT98-acs Using landfill gas for power generation is a world-beating success for Britain which has topped all expectations under the Government’s renewable energy programme, Junior Energy Minister Richard Page said today. Landfill gas is mainly methane gas produced in former landfill sites. As methane is a potent “greenhouse gas”, considerable environmental gain will come from boosting the use of landfill gas and the DTI has published today a best practice guide to push forward further development of this industry. LANDFILL GAS EFFICIENCY RATES ARE RISING Joseph Edwin, New Straits Times, January 21, 1997; Pg. 5, TITLE: Generating electricity from trash // VT98-acs Landfill gas can be collected and burned to provide heat and power generation. Until recently, the available technology could only generate 4.5 megawatts of electricity, enough to power a small village. However, the technology at the time was inefficient as it released only 33 per cent of the energy going into the unit. But British scientists found success recently by increasing efficiency to 80 per cent. They did this by putting a combined heating power package on the engine and recovering the heat from the cooling water system and the exhaust gases. Near Wiggam in the United Kingdom today, heat and electricity generated from municipal waste is used to warm the external ponds of a local ornamental fish farm. Thus far, they have managed to generate 700 kilowatts of electricity and this figure is expected to rise to 2.8 megawatts. SOLVENCY-EFFICIENCY INCREASED EFFICIENCY IS THE OPTIMAL RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCE THE ANSWER TO ENERGY PROBLEMS LIES IN INCREASED ENERGY EFFICIENCY Amory Lovins, The Rocky Mountain Institute, Electronic Design, January 6, 1997; Pg. 108, TITLE: Green Engineering: Designing For A Brighter Future, Part 2 // VT98-acs Well, our most powerful tool is the field of resource efficiency. For example, we can now save about twice as much electricity as we could five years ago, and at only a third of the real cost. This trend has been holding true for at least the past 15 years. The importance of this becomes apparent when you realize that we’re spending over close to $ 200 billion on electricity, and every unit of it that we save saves three or four units of the fuel used to produce it at the power plant. It’s actually cheaper for the utilities to save the fuel than to burn it. This helps cut by a third one of the main threats to the climate, not at a cost, but at a profit! We’ve already cut $ 180 billion of the nation’s energy bill by simple things, such as using caulking guns, plugging steam leaks, installing more efficient windows, and building slightly better cars. Unfortunately, we’re still wasting more than $ 300 billion in energy, not to mention twice that in water and materials–a grand total of a trillion dollars in resources lost every year. ENERGY EFFICIENCY CAN BE IMPROVED BY OVER 90% Amory Lovins, The Rocky Mountain Institute, Electronic Design, January 6, 1997; Pg. 108, TITLE: Green Engineering: Designing For A Brighter Future, Part 2 // VT98-acs There have been major savings in every area, materials, power, mobility, services, etc…but we have only scratched the surface. I’m looking at a paper that I did back in 1976 in which I was heavily criticized for suggesting that U.S. energy use might stabilize, and even decline, as we wring out the losses in the system. Well, the energy intensity of the economy has already decreased by a third more than I said it might do, yet the potential savings are now enormously larger and cheaper than 20 years ago. This is because we’re learning faster than we’re exhausting the ripest opportunities. I used to argue 20 years ago about whether the potential for energy conservation in the US was 10 or 30%. Ten years ago, we were arguing about whether it was 40 or 80%. Now we’re arguing about whether it’s 80, 90, or even 99% in the long run. ENERGY CONSERVATION, LIKE RENEWABLE ENERGY, SAVES THE ENVIRONMENT AND CREATES JOBS Pamela W. Person, vice chairman of the Coalition for Sensible Energy, BANGOR DAILY NEWS (BANGOR, MAINE), April 18, 1997, TITLE: The power to demand more renewable energy What Maine citizens really want // VT98-acs Energy conservation, like renewables, creates jobs within the state both directly and indirectly — from the providers of energy conservation, their suppliers and additional jobs in the plants where energy savings could be put to more job or plant investment. All these jobs lead to more local and state tax revenue (income, excise and property) as well as reduced unemployment roles. 90% IMPROVED ENERGY EFFICIENCY NUMBERS ARE VERY REAL Amory Lovins, The Rocky Mountain Institute, Electronic Design, January 6, 1997; Pg. 108, TITLE: Green Engineering: Designing For A Brighter Future, Part 2 // VT98-acs Those are not fantasy numbers. We all know that a good laptop computer is somewhere around 95 to 98% more power efficient than a standard desktop unit (5 W versus 150). You save about 98% with an inkjet printer or fax over a comparable later model. We recently did an air-conditioning retrofit in an office building and cut the power consumption by 97%, and the engineer who did that said he could do better on the next one! When we built the institute 13 years ago, we saved 99% of the space and water heating energy, and 90% of the electricity (a 10-month payback). Today, we can do better than this. Although our recent book, “Factor Four” (published in Germany) talks about living twice as well on half the resources by increasing utilization efficiency by a factor of four, I think that’s pretty tame. Now, we’re looking at factors of 10, and in some cases, 100. SIMPLE ENERGY EFFICIENCY CAN SAVE 25% OF THE ELECTRICITY WE USE AND PAY FOR ITSELF IN 16 MONTHS Amory Lovins, The Rocky Mountain Institute, Electronic Design, January 6, 1997; Pg. 108, TITLE: Green Engineering: Designing For A Brighter Future, Part 2 // VT98-acs You can save about half of industrial motor energy, just from the input shaft to the driven machine. This has a payback of about 16 months if your electricity costs five cents per kilowatt hour. Getting there takes doing seven things that you pay for and an additional 28 benefits you get for free, as byproducts. This alone is enough to save a quarter of all the electricity in the country. SOLVENCY-EFFICIENCY INCREASED EFFICIENCY IS THE OPTIMAL RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCE [P. 2] DEVELOPING NATIONS CAN SAVE 70% THROUGH INCREASED EFFICIENCY Agence France Presse, February 28, 1997, TITLE: UNDP report rejects nuclear power as future energy source // VT98-acs According to the report [UNDP] , technological advances should enable developing countries to make energy savings of up to 70 percent or more in the longer term, by reducing consumption of traditional fossil fuel. But it also said that other energy sources such as wind and solar power would be viable alternatives. ENERGY EFFICIENCY SAVINGS EXIST IN ALMOST EVERY POSSIBLE AREA Amory Lovins, The Rocky Mountain Institute, Electronic Design, January 6, 1997; Pg. 108, TITLE: Green Engineering: Designing For A Brighter Future, Part 2 // VT98-acs Sure. There are loads of them. Besides electronics which are always getting better, smaller, faster, cheaper, there’s my refrigerator. The Sun Frost-brand refrigerator that I own is made in quantities of a thousand odd units per year and uses something like 8% of the electricity that a normal appliance would. Today’s super windows typically have four to five times the performance of double glazed units but cost only an extra 10 to 30%. Most household appliances are available in energy saving versions that use one-half to onethird the power that their competitors do, at close to, or the same cost. It’s becoming common for my friend M. E. Lee to save at least 80% of the fan and pump energy in the buildings he designs while saving capital costs as well. He also can usually cut two-thirds of the energy out of a typical HVAC system in his buildings. ENERGY EFFICIENCY COULD SAVE 50% OF OUR ENERGY USE JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 10-11 Moreover, in addition to the money spent on fossil fuel, its subsidization, and its pollution, we also waste hundreds of billions of dollars worth of energy in our energy inefficient buildings, appliances, and transportation systems. At least half of all electricity we generate could actually be saved through the use of readily available energy-efficiency technology -such as more efficient motors and improved lights, as studies by energy expert Amory Lovins and others show (see Chapter 21). That’s far more than the energy we could produce from the oil and gas reserves in our Outer Continental Shelf and the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge combined. If this seems like a lot of money and energy, it is, but it’s still only part of the cost. ENERGY EFFICIENCY HAS ALREADY SAVED THE US ECONOMY $2 TRILLION OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. XIV Energy expert Amory Lovins and others have demonstrated that the US economy has saved more than $2 trillion in energy costs over the past 20 years (while growing 65 percent) through energy efficiency, fuel substitution, and other means. ENERGY EFFICIENCY CAN CUT CO2 EMISSIONS BY 20-30% Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, November 11, 1996, Pg. 06, TITLE: A business praying for ‘cultural revolution’ // VT98-acs Mr Michael Jefferson, deputy secretary-general of the World Energy Council, reckons that energy efficiency measures could easily cut carbon dioxide emissions by around 20 to 30 per cent. “It is not clear,” he says, “apart from inertia, ignorance, and institutional complacency, what the obstacles are to energy efficiency”. HUGE EFFICIENCIES EXIST IN GRID AND TRANSMISSION REFORMS Heinrich von Pierer, chairman of Siemens AG, Power Engineering, October, 1996; Pg. 58; TITLE: Efficiency improvements are critical for a bright tomorrow // VT98-acs Major advances are not limited to power generation: There is also enormous potential for increasing efficiency in power transmission and distribution. Networked power grids can link various time zones, helping reduce generating capacities needed to meet peak load demands. Or innovative superconducting magnetic power storage units will take over the function of the “seconds-range reserves” in power plants. Today, power plants must generate surplus power to ensure that, in an emergency, the output level in the grid can be maintained. SOLVENCY-TRANSPORTATION RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN MEET MOST OF THE ENERGY NEEDS OF THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR TRANSPORTATION IS A HUGE CHUNK OF OUR IMPORTED OIL BILL Eric Vaughn, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, The Stuart News / Port St. Lucie News (Stuart, FL), September 18, 1996, Pg. A9, TITLE: WE NEED TO BREAK OUR OIL HABIT // VT98-acs Our exclusive use of oil for transportation energy is a key factor. Today, Americans are driving farther, faster, in larger vehicles, consuming more gasoline than ever before. In 1994, petroleum used for transportation in the United States averaged 10.8 million barrels a day, 65 percent of the nation’s total use. This demand exceeded domestic petroleum production by 61 percent. SOLAR CAN BE STORED AS HYDROGEN FOR LATER USE IN MANY WAYS John J. Monahan, SUNDAY TELEGRAM, February 2, 1997; Pg. B5; TITLE: America should spiral out of shadow and use sun’s power // VT98-acs [John T. O'Connor, president of Greenworks Inc., and co-author] Other new technologies use the sun to break water into oxygen and clean-burning hydrogen, which can then be compressed for later use as a power source for heating, electricity and transportation. HYDROGEN FUEL CELL CARS ARE CURRENTLY ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Washington Post, September 15, 1996, Pg. C02, TITLE: If We Kicked the Oil Habit, Saddam Wouldn’t Menace Us // VT98-acs At the same time, the energy R&D programs that survived the Reagan cuts have driven the costs of many oil alternatives way down. In the transportation sector (which accounts for some two-thirds of total U.S. oil consumption) fuel cells first developed by NASA in the 1960s and refined since with Energy Department funding are tantalizingly close to commercialization. These devices run on abundant natural gas, gasified coal or any material rich in hydrogen — the most common element in the universe. They can cut a vehicle’s overall energy use at least in half, with virtually no pollution. One new CanadianGerman prototype car can carry six people at 65 miles per hour for 150 miles without refueling. Another government-industry collaboration in the United States is on track to producing a prototype “clean car” by the year 2004 that would be three times more fuel efficient than today’s models without sacrificing size, comfort, performance or safety. FEDERAL COMMITMENT WILL RESULT IN A CLEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY CAR BY 2004, REVITALIZING THE ECONOMY Stefan Halper, is host of NET Television’s “World Wise” and a former White House and State Department official, The Christian Science Monitor, October 18, 1996, Pg. 18 // VT98-acs In the transportation sector, hydrogen-based fuel cells, first developed by NASA in the ’60s, have improved to the point where they will soon be commercially viable. A joint government-industry effort will produce a “clean car” by 2004 that will be three times more fuel efficient than today’s, while maintaining size, performance, and safety. But these advances are not possible without a strong federal financial commitment, and they are unlikely if proposed congressional cuts go forward and the administration remains unwilling or unable to provide a strategic rational for the expenditures. In that case, technologies developed in the US could well stimulate hundreds of thousands of jobs in alternative energy areas abroad, while we import products conceived and developed by US scientists. EACH ELECTRIC VEHICLE WILL SAVE SOCIETY BETWEEN $5000 AND $17000 IN AIR POLLUTION ABATEMENT COSTS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 273 Each electric vehicle replacing a conventional vehicle in an urban area that is violating federal Clean Air Act standards can save society $5,000 – $17,000 in avoided air-pollution abatement costs, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. SOLVENCY-TRANSPORTATION HYPERCARS CAN BE THE ENERGY VEHICLES AND PRODUCERS OF THE FUTURE Amory Lovins, The Rocky Mountain Institute, Electronic Design, January 6, 1997; Pg. 108, TITLE: Green Engineering: Designing For A Brighter Future, Part 2 // VT98-acs If I had to pick one thing that I’m most excited about, it would be the unexpected link we’ve discovered this past year between hypercars (ultra-slippery, ultra-light fuel efficient vehicles) and polymer proton-exchange membranes, a new kind of fuel cell. Basically, it turns out that hypercars require one-quarter to one-tenth the tractive power of conventional cars. This means that they could easily adopt polymer fuel cells as their on-board electrical power source, using either hydrogen or natural gas as fuel. Even in their initial stages of commercialization, the low energy requirements of the hypercar would make it economically feasible to use early fuel cells by the late 1990’s. Amory Lovins, The Rocky Mountain Institute, Electronic Design, January 6, 1997; Pg. 108, TITLE: Green Engineering: Designing For A Brighter Future, Part 2 // VT98-acs As soon as you start to make enough fuel cells for even a small hypercar industry the price of a fuel cell will plummet to a few hundred dollars per kilowatt. You could also put the fuel cells in buildings, which use two thirds of our electrical energy. In buildings, the waste heat that fuel cells produce (at around 70 degrees C) will provide enough building services to justify the cost of the natural gas. Once you do that, the net cost of the electricity becomes one to two cents per kilowatthour. This could put most central power plants out of business. Amory Lovins, The Rocky Mountain Institute, Electronic Design, January 6, 1997; Pg. 108, TITLE: Green Engineering: Designing For A Brighter Future, Part 2 // VT98-acs The cars could even be leased by the gas companies. Alternatively, you could lease your hypercar back to the power company as a 20 KW power station on wheels. The fuel cell in it is clean, quiet, durable, and parked 96% of the time. Imagine if some entrepreneur came along and provided a natural gas or hydrogen hookup and an electrical feed at your normal parking place. You drive to work, hook up your car, swipe your credit card, and while sitting at your desk, the car is sending 20 kW back to the power grid at a real-time price. This should earn you about $ 2500 per year, which is probably at least half the cost of financing and depreciating the car. This means that your second largest idle household asset is now a substantial income earner. It doesn’t take long for the rest of the centralized generating facilities to be displaced because the hypercar fleet could eventually have five times the generating capacity of the national power grid. Amory Lovins, The Rocky Mountain Institute, Electronic Design, January 6, 1997; Pg. 108, TITLE: Green Engineering: Designing For A Brighter Future, Part 2 // VT98-acs That, in turn, would not only speed up the arrival of a distributed utility system, but also accelerate the conversion to a solar-hydrogen economy. You see, most renewable energy sources (sun, wind, water) can make hydrogen a whole lot more cheaply and easily than they can make utility-grade electricity. In fact, owners of big, old hydroelectric dams may find they make a lot more money making hydrogen at the foot of the dam (at the equivalent of seven to nine cents per kilowatthour) for the vehicular fuel market than they can selling electricity into a very crowded, low-priced wholesale electricity market. What you have in effect is hypercars acting as a nega-OPEC, saving about as much fuel as OPEC now extracts. NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS AGAINST AFFIRMATIVE CASES INHERENCY: The status quo is just fine 87 Renewable energy is coming fast enough now 88-89 Best to wait and not rush into renewable energy 90-91 If renewable energy is good, the private sector will develop it 92 Coming utility deregulation will give us all the renewable energy we need 93 Renewable energy is currently adequately funded HARMS: Current energy system isn’t so bad 94-97 Oil dependency, Middle East crisis 98 Acid rain 99 Fossil fuel harms cannot be avoided 100 No international modeling advantage 101-106 Global warming 107-109 Decreasing air pollution will increase global warming RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES FAIL: Specifics on each one 110-116 Wind 117-119 Solar 120-124 Biomass 125 Fusion 126 Geothermal 127-131 Breeder reactors 132-136 Solar Power Satellite Stations (SPSS) 137 Renewable energy in transportation 138 Hydropower, dams 139 Efficiency 140 “Clean” coal SOLVENCY: Affirmative plan will not be effective 141-145 Renewable energy generally 146-148 Government programs to promote renewable energy fail 149-151 Barriers to use of renewable energy 152-154 Using the market system will fail 155-156 Government research and development is so bad it should be banned INHERENCY RENEWABLE ENERGY IS COMING IN THE STATUS QUO — BETTER NOT TO FORCE IT WITH THE AFFIRMATIVE PLAN CORPORATE AMERICA IS UNITED BEHIND MAKING RENEWABLE ENERGY THE CORNERSTONE OF US ENERGY POLICY Global Warming Network Online Today, October 28, 1996, TITLE: Executives Support Sustainable Energy in Statement // VT98-acs The Sustainable Energy Coalition recently announced that over 500 companies from all 50 states and the District of Columbia have signed a statement in support of an “expanded national commitment to making sustainable energy — energy efficiency, renewable energy, and natural gas — the cornerstone” of U.S. energy policy. AMERICANS PREFER RENEWABLE ENERGY TO FOSSIL FUEL OR NUCLEAR Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Renewable energy advocates have long argued that, given a choice, Americans prefer renewables to conventional alternatives such as nuclear and fossil fuels. VOTERS SUPPORT FEDERAL PROGRAMSD FOR RENEWABLE FUELS LIKE ETHANOL 21st Century Fuels, January, 1997, Headline: American Voters Support U.S. Funding Renewables Programs // VT98-acs A survey conducted immediately following the November elections found that voters support federal programs to promote the increased production and use of renewable fuels — including ethanol-blend’s 5.4 c/gal excise tax exemption. The national opinion survey, America Speaks Out on Energy: A Survey of 1996 Post-Election Views, was conducted by the Republican polling firm Research/Strategy/Management, Inc. for the Sustainable Energy Coalition. The survey found that 82% of voters surveyed prefer directing current federal tax policies to encourage the use of domestically produced renewable fuels. INHERENCY BEST TO WAIT UNTIL OIL PRICES RISE, THEN RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL BE ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE; USHERING IN THE AGE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY WHEN WE NEED IT, NOT NOW OIL PRICES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY 2010 Kenneth E Skog, Forest Products Journal, February 1997, Pg. 63-69; TITLE: United States wood biomass for energy and chemicals // VT98-ACS Even though fossil fuel prices have remained relatively low (below $ 20/barrel of oil (bbl); all figures are in 1994 dollars) since the mid-1980s, and may remain low through the year 2000, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) projects that deflated world oil prices could increase 23 percent or more between 2000 and 2010: from $ 19/bbl in 2000 to $ 24/bbl for the Reference case, or from $ 26/bbl in 2000 to $ 33/bbl in the High Price case (9). DEMAND FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL RISE AS IT BECOMES MORE ECONOMICAL Bill Schroer, The Denver Post, February 10, 1997; Pg. C-02, TITLE: Renewable energy matures Colorado’s high plains well-suited for solar, wind and biomass power // VT98-acs Solar panels now in service in eastern Colorado will contribute to lower prices in the future. Renewable energy has held strong appeal for more than 20 years due to its environmental benefits and the fact that it’s a safe, flexible domestic resource, but significantly lower prices for traditional energy have inhibited demand for renewable power. However, as the price for renewable energy approaches existing utility rates, demand is expected to rise. BY 2020 FOSSIL FUEL USE WILL DROP DRASTICALLY YOSHIO SHIOTANI Senior staff writer, The Nikkei Weekly, December 23, 1996; Pg. 23, TITLE: Scientists see a world on cusp of new knowledge // VT98-acs Japan’s National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, linked to the Science and Technology Agency, and Germany’s System Technology Innovation Research Institute, associated with the Fraun Hofer Association, conducted a joint survey of scientists in their respective nations last year. The institutes asked scientists to set time frames for the development of various technologies. During the half decade from 2016 to 2020, a succession of fundamental, enabling technologies is expected to debut in the fields of energy, environment and brain function. The energy-conversion efficiency of solar cells will reach a high level of 30% and bring solar power into widespread use. At the same time, energy-storage systems based on superconducting materials should reach the practical stage. Taken together, these developments will help lead in 2021 to a major shift away from fossil fuels to types of renewable energy resources, and a resulting large decrease in carbon-dioxide emissions. THE SWITCH TO RENEWABLE ENERGY IS INEVITABLE JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 314 Why is the switch to renewable energy inevitable? The answer is not merely because the aggregate environmental impacts of a world fossil filer economy on air, fresh water, and oceans will become progressively more insufferable as world population expands and as world economic activity continues to increase. The shift is also inevitable because renewable energy is abundant, domestically available, generally fuel-free, very low to nonpolluting, climate-safe, and sustainable. In short, it is superior. Compare renewables with fossil fuels. FOSSIL FUEL USE WILL PEAK BY 2030, SECONDARY SOURCE TO RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050 JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. XV The next shift is from fossil and nuclear energy to solar-based renewables. Fossil fuel use may peak by the year 2030. By 2050, or even earlier if we wish, a very substantial portion of the world’s energy will be solar derived — beyond the already significant contributions of biomass and hydropower. BY 2011 THERE WILL BE A CLOSED-CIRCLE RECYCLING ECONOMY YOSHIO SHIOTANI Senior staff writer, The Nikkei Weekly, December 23, 1996; Pg. 23, TITLE: Scientists see a world on cusp of new knowledge // VT98-acs Japan’s National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, linked to the Science and Technology Agency, and Germany’s System Technology Innovation Research Institute, associated with the Fraun Hofer Association, conducted a joint survey of scientists in their respective nations last year. The institutes asked scientists to set time frames for the development of various technologies. By 2011, nearly all materials will be recycled and a closed-circle economy will be operating. JNHERENCY THE BEST OPTION IS TO WAIT UNTIL THE TIME IS RIGHT TO SWITCH TO RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT TO ACT NOW WAIT UNTIL 2006, WHEN SOLAR PANEL BREAKTHROUGH WILL COME YOSHIO SHIOTANI Senior staff writer, The Nikkei Weekly, December 23, 1996; Pg. 23, TITLE: Scientists see a world on cusp of new knowledge // VT98-acs Japan’s National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, linked to the Science and Technology Agency, and Germany’s System Technology Innovation Research Institute, associated with the Fraun Hofer Association, conducted a joint survey of scientists in their respective nations last year. The institutes asked scientists to set time frames for the development of various technologies. From 2006 to 2010, solar cells will achieve a light-to-electricity conversion of efficiency of 20%, bringing the practical use of large-area solar panels. BEST CHANCE TO REDUCE AIR POLLUTION IS TO WAIT FOR TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENTS David Lore, science reporter, The Columbus Dispatch, September 22, 1996, Pg. 7C., TITLE: WAITING TO PAY FOR CHEAPER TECHNOLOGIES IS FOLLY // VT98-acs At the Riffe Center last week, for example, participants in a global warming conference agreed it would be unwise to spend a lot of money right now on reducing air pollution since there’s a chance scientists and engineers might develop cheaper, cleaner energy systems i.e., silver bullets – if we just wait a few decades. BEST TO WAIT UNTIL 21sCENTURY TO FIGHT GLOBAL WARMING, IT WILL BE SAFE AND WE WILL SAVE $2.5 TRILLION David Lore, science reporter, The Columbus Dispatch, September 22, 1996, Pg. 7C., TITLE: WAITING TO PAY FOR CHEAPER TECHNOLOGIES IS FOLLY // VT98-acs The Clinton administration, which wants to build a bridge to the future, is accepting arguments that the toll booth for global warming can be at the far end of the span. It doesn’t matter when we pay the toll as long as we do it sometime during the 21st century, said Washington energy consultant W. David Montgomery. And if we wait a few decades, he said, the final fare just might be $ 2.5 trillion less. RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL DOMINATE ENERGY AFFAIRS WITHIN 50 YEARS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 3 As noted, within about 50 years — and possibly sooner, if we choose — the world will greatly reduce its massive reliance on fossil fuel and nuclear energy by shifting to clean and sustainable renewable energy sources. BY 2050 RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL DOMINATE ENERGY MARKET, BY 2100 WE WILL BE IN A POLLUTION FREE RENEWABLE ENERGY ECONOMY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. XV According to a recent study Shell International Petroleum Corporation, renewables by 2050 may be providing almost as much energy as all fossil and nuclear energy combined. Not long thereafter in historical terms — certainly by A.D. 2100, and probably far sooner — the transition to a pollution free renewable energy economy will be complete. By then, today’s fossil fuel and nuclear energy technologies will be museum pieces. INHERENCY THE FREE MARKET WILL FULLY DEVELOP ANY RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCE WHICH IS COST COMPETITIVE WHEN EVENTS REQUIRE RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY, THE PRIVATE SECTOR WILL DEVELOP THEM MOST EFFECTIVELY Fred L. Smith, Jr. President The Competitive Enterprise Institute, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee // VT98-acs Consider, for example, the energy efficiency and alternative energy research programs of the Department of Energy. DOE funds such research in the belief that markets do not do enough to increase energy efficiency or to find other sources of energy. This is a strange notion. If events were ever to require fossil fuel substitutes or greater energy efficiency, then as Simon Rottenberg has stated: “Producers have the incentive to find inexpensive, attractive, and efficient substitutes for fossil fuels; their earnings will rise if they do. Consumers have an incentive to substitute other fuels; they will reduce their costs if they do.” IF THE R&D IS REALLY A GOOD IDEA, PRIVATE FIRMS WILL DO IT; IF IT IS A BAD IDEA, GOVERNMENT WILL DO IT Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs Whether or not a particular R&D program is aimed at achieving some “worthy cause” is irrelevant. The worthier the cause, the more likely it is that private money would be available if the worthy cause were indeed viable. More often than not, however, such expenditures are merely the high-minded justifications proffered to mask what is in reality corporate welfare. MARKETS ARE DOING THE RIGHT THING WHEN THEY FAIL TO INVEST IN UNECONOMICAL RENEWABLE ENERGY Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs Nonetheless, when markets find that a particular research activity involves high risk and minimal return due to low energy prices, the market does not “fail” by not investing in the project; it operates rationally. GOVERNMENT FOCUSES ON HIGH RISK PRE-COMPETITIVE RESEARCH — SO NO WONDER IT FAILS Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs Since the portfolio of federal energy R&D investments is directed, according to the DOE, at supporting “high-risk, precompetitive research,” which results in a “high-risk portfolio of capital investments in the Nation’s future,” it should not surprise us when government’s “high-risk capital investments” don’t pan out — they are, after all, risky by definition. IF AND WHEN FOSSIL FUELS RUN SHORT, THEN THE MARKET WILL GO TO RENEWABLE ENERGY International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 1, 1996, TITLE: SLANTS & TRENDS–LAISSEZ-FAIRE RENEWABLES // VT98-acs Jerry Taylor, Cato’s director of natural resource studies: The United States has a traditional glut of fossil fuels, Taylor wrote in a recent Cato publication. If and when these fossil fuels run out, the free market will turn to renewable energy sources of its own will. ATTEMPTS TO MAKE CONSUMERS DEMAND RENEWABLE ENERGY HAVE FAILED International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 1, 1996, TITLE: Business & Technology–Green Pricing Programs: Poor Utility Outreach May Explain Gap Between Polls and Willingness to Pay // VT98-acs Government and environmental advocates have admonished the public to change lifestyles and embrace renewable energy since the oil crisis of the 1970s, said the report, Energy and the Environment: The Public View. Barbara Farhar, a senior scientist at the National renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., wrote the report. INHERENCY THE VARIOUS TYPES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL ARISE ON THEIR OWN AS THEY ARE ECONOMICAL WIND POWER WILL GROW RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT DECADE — MUCH LIKE THE COMPUTER INDUSTRY DID DENNIS WAMSTED, New Technology Week, September 3, 1996, TITLE: PC-Like Growth Spurt Ahead For Windpower? // VT98-acs ” The rapid growth and steady technological advance of windpower suggest that it could become an important energy source for many nations within the next decade,” Flavin writes in “Windpower: Small, But Growing Fast,” an article in the September/October 1996 issue of the institute’s magazine, WorldWatch. “The computer industry has demonstrated the potentially powerful impact of double-digit growth rates. The fact that personal computers provided less than I percent of world computing power in 1980 did not prevent them–a decade later–from dominating the industry, and changing the very nature of work,” he writes. There is no doubt that rapid growth also is possible in the wind industry, he said. In particular, he pointed out that windpower, which essentially generated no electricity in the north Germ;m state of Schleswig-Holstein in 1990, now accounts for 8 percent of the state’s electric generation capacity, and that figure is growing. WIND POWER IS INCREASING BY OVER 20% A YEAR THE ELECTRICITY DAILY, February 3, 1997, TITLE: Wind Blows Strongly Worldwide // VT98acs New wind generating capacity worldwide topped 1,200 MW in 1996, for the second year in a row, reports the American Wind Energy Association. Worldwide installed wind capacity now stands at 6,190 MW, up 24 percent from 1995. AWEA says it expects 1997 additions to total at least 1,300 MW. WIND POWER IS SPREADING, NOT BEING ABANDONED Jonathon Porritt, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS WIND power is not being “ditched as useless across the world”. There are 17,000 turbines operating in the State of California alone. One thousand new turbines were erected in Germany last year. Denmark generates nearly 4 per cent of its electricity consumption from wind. Four million people in Europe now get their electricity from wind power. IMMEDIATE FUTURE SEES DOUBLE DIGIT ANNUAL PERCENTAGE GROWTH IN SOLAR ENERGY Oliver Morgan, MAIL ON SUNDAY, February 09, 1997: Pg. 8, TITLE: New dawn beckons if the world turns to the sun // VT98-acs But according to California based environmental researchers Strategies Unlimited, the market is set for massive growth. Strategies Unlimited Vice President Bob Johnson says by 2000 a doubling of annual production to 150 to 200 megawatts would be ‘conservative’. He says: ‘By 2010, the figure could have increased by ten to twenty times, to 800 or 1600 megawatts annually. That is impressive double digit growth by anyone’s standards.’ ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS ON THE RISE AND WILL REDUCE THE PROBLEMS OF FOSSIL FUELS Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, November 11, 1996, Pg. 06, TITLE: A business praying for ‘cultural revolution’ // VT98-acs Having been weakened by falling oil and gas prices, the business of energy efficiency looks set to receive a new lease of life as concerns about the environment grow. Chief of these worries is global warming, whose best-known man-made cause is the burning of fossil fuels by industry and the general public. Other concerns include “acid rain” from power plants, which devastates forests and lakes, and air pollution from road transport. THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIAL OBSTACLES TO IMPROVED ENERGY EFFICIENCY Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, October 23, 1996, Pg. 11, TITLE: Energy answers blowing in the wind: Falling oil and gas prices may undermine rationale for renewable sources // VT98acs Mr Michael Jefferson, deputy secretary-general of the World Energy Council, which consists of the world’s energy producers, says that”it is not clear, apart from inertia, ignorance, and institutional complacency, what the obstacles are to energy efficiency”. INHERENCY COMING UTILITY DEREGULATION WILL GIVE US ALL THE RENEWABLE ENERGY WE WILL NEED UTILITY DEREGULATION MIGHT CREATE COMPETITION BASED ON PROMOTING RENEWABLE ENERGY THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NEVER SEEN BEFORE ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Many consumers feel an intuitive appreciation for the concept of environmental soundness, and they demonstrate an increasing willingness to pay for it. The advantage of a popular environmental brand to which customers felt a moral attachment might engender a corporate commitment to renewable energy unknown in the conventional regulatory milieu. BECAUSE OF LACK OF BRAND DIFFERENTIATION, UTILITIES WILL MOVE TO RENEWABLE ENERGY AS A WAY TO ATTRACT CUSTOMERS ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Second, some advocates, again citing surveys, suggest that renewable energy might burgeon if deregulation raises consumers’ awareness about the source of their electricity. They reason that electricity retailers in a restructured market would find themselves trying to sell a product with few attributes capable of differentiation. The telecommunication industry provides a useful comparison here. In the case of both power and telephone service, American consumers expect practically complete reliability, eliminating one avenue of possible brand differentiation. Electric suppliers might tout voltage stability, especially to industrial users, just as some telephone providers market the high quality of their sound. But here again, Americans might exhibit little tolerance for performance considered substandard. Most differentiation of telecommunication brands exists in the customer interface — billing format, discounts, etc. But electricity distribution utilities probably will remain monopoly franchises, perhaps eliminating this avenue of brand differentiation as well. However, electric power offers an ideal opportunity for distinguishing consumer options: the direct environmental effect of product consumption. GOOD REASONS EXIST FOR SUPPORTERS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TO APPROVE OF UTILITY DEREGULATION ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs First, we doubt whether the conventional regulatory framework has aided the renewable energy community so much that we should defend it unthinkingly. Today, renewable resources other than hydropower supply a scant 0.3% of utility electricity. Given polls indicating strong consumer support for renewable energy, the niche market available in even the crudest customer choice scenario might be much larger. DEREGULATION WON’T HURT RENEWABLE ENERGY BECAUSE IT WILL CAUSE CONSUMER PREFERENCES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TO BE CONSIDERED SERIOUSLY Reuters Financial Service, April 22, 1997, TITLE: US REPUBLICAN RELEASES SURVEY BACKING CLEAN POWER // VT98-acs Environmentalists have raised concern that in an open market, buyers would opt for the cheapest power, which would likely come from coal-fired power plants. “We think higher of the American consumer than that,” Commerce Committee spokesman Michael Collins. “We think the American consumer will try to choose electric power that is clean and safe.” UTILITY DEGREGULATION WILL HELP RENEWABLE ENERGY BECAUSE CUSTOMERS WILL REQUEST IT Susan Klann, contributing editor of Oil and Gas Investor, The Denver Post, October 21, 1996; Pg. E-02, TITLE: Photovoltaic remains costly energy game // VT98-acs Restructuring won’t speed up renewable development except in one aspect: As utilities face more competition, they will have to listen more and more closely to what customers want. And many customers want renewable energy choices. ELECTRICITY DEREGULATION WILL DECREASE INCENTIVES FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, October 23, 1996, Pg. 11, TITLE: Energy answers blowing in the wind: Falling oil and gas prices may undermine rationale for renewable sources // VT98acs He estimates that the UK could easily cut its energy consumption by as much as 30 per cent, averting the need for more costly ways of cutting greenhouse gas emissions associated with global warming. However, he shares widespread fears that government plans to liberalise electricity markets after 1998 will undermine further the rationale for developing renewables by driving prices down further. INHERENCY RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS WILL BE ADEQUATELY FUNDED STRONG BI-PARTISAN SUPPORT FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY FUNDING Lira Behrens, Inside Energy/with Federal Lands, December 16, 1996; Pg. 6, TITLE: SURVEY SHOWS DEMOCRATIC, GOP VOTERS CONTINUE TO BACK EFFICIENCY R&D // VT98-acs A coalition of consumer and environmental groups last week released the results of a survey of registered voters that for the third straight year shows strong bipartisan support for DOE’s renewable energy and energy efficiency r&d programs. The poll, which was conducted Nov. 9-14 by Research/Strategy/Management Inc., for the Sustainable Energy Budget Coalition, surveyed 1,200 registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.9%. ENERGY FUNDING IS DOWN BUT RENEWABLE ENERGY FUNDING IS UP Greenwire, February 7, 1997, TITLE: BUDGET: MEDIA COVERAGE OUTLINES ENVIRO HITS AND GAINS // VT98-acs Meanwhile, the Energy Dept. would have “nearly 8% less” to spend in FY ‘98, although energy efficiency and renewable energy would be among the programs getting funding boosts (Martha Hamilton, WASH. POST). FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WILL INCREASE RENEWABLE ENERGY FUNDING IN FISCAL 98 21ST CENTURY FUELS, March, 1997, TITLE: DOE REQUESTS $1 BILLION FOR EFFICIENCY/RENEWABLE IN 1998 // VT98-acs “Feeling bullish and optimistic” for what she called “a successful budget year,” Christine Ervin, assistant secretary of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, announced a request for $1.05 billion, $213 million more than Congress authorized for fiscal year 1997. The Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT), which includes alternative fuel and vehicle programs, requested $243.3 million, almost $40 million more than last year’s proposal. NEW CONGRESS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 15, 1996, TITLE: General Election: Renewable Advocates Expect Shift As Moderates Gain Power in House // VT98-acs Renewable energy advocates can expect increased influence in Congress by moderate Republicans in the wake of the Nov. 5 general elections,say solar energy advocates. The elections warrant cautious optimism for future federal funding of renewable energy programs and electricity restructuring legislation, said the liberal Sustainable Energy Coalition (SEC), based in the Washington suburb of Takoma Park, Md. REPUBLICAN CONTROL OF HOUSE HELPS RENEWABLE ENERGY FUNDING International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 15, 1996, TITLE: General Election: Renewable Advocates Expect Shift As Moderates Gain Power in House // VT98-acs Continued Republican control of the house may work in favor of renewable, SEC said. A Republican-controlled House will pass electric utility restructuring legislation through faster than a Democratic-controlled chamber would, the environmental group speculated. GINGRICH SUPPORTS RENEWABLE ENERGY CongressDaily/P.M., September 23, 1996, TITLE: Despite Hostility, Renewable Energy Boosters Win A Few // VT98-acs Speaker Gingrich especially has expressed a strong interest in renewable technology, [Rep.] Schaefer added. GREEN PRICING PLAN FOR UTILITIES IS GROWING RAPIDLY DENNIS WAMSTED, The Energy Daily, February 11, 1997, TITLE: The Color Of Choice For Utilities Is Green // VT98-acs Cooperative Power supplies wholesale electric power to Dakota Electric and 16 other electric distribution cooperatives in west central and southern Minnesota. And Will Kaul, director of transmission and environmental services for CP, said the program could grow to include some or all of the 15 other distribution cooperatives it serves. “I am confident that this program will grow rapidly,” he said. “Other cooperatives in the state have already expressed an interest in offering renewable energy to their customers.” NEGATIVE HARMS-OIL DEPENDENCY OIL SUPPLIES ARE NOW SECURE AND DEPENDABLE ENERGY SUPPLIES HAVE NEVER BEEN AS SECURE AS THEY ARE NOW Financial Times, February 1, 1997; Pg. 03, TITLE: Supplies of energy safe for 50 years // VT98-ACS Mr Baker, speaking at a seminar sponsored by Price Waterhouse, said concerns about the security of energy supplies, which had been common in the 1970s and 1980s, were a thing of the past. The world had never felt more relaxed about the security of energy supplies and this was having a big impact on the structure of the power industry. EVEN IF RADICALS OVERTHROW SAUDI ARABIA THE US OIL SUPPLIES WOULD NOT BE SHUT DOWN. MIDDLE EAST ECONOMIES ARE TOO DEPENDENT ON OIL TO SHUT OFF THE SUPPLY Paul Blustein, Washington Post Staff Writer, 1996 [Sept. 18, The Washington Post HEADLINE: An Unstable Middle East Won't Put the U.S. Over a Barrel\\jan] Even the West’s worst nightmare — a coup by radicals to overthrow the Saudi monarchy -would probably lead to only a short-term disruption in oil prices, according to experts, because the new rulers would need cash, too. “Look at what’s happening in Turkey,” said Michael Lynch, an energy expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “An Islamic fundamentalist becomes head of a coalition government, and the first thing he does is increase spending. ” A radical Saudi regime might be tempted to try increasing revenue by slashing production to drive up prices. But such a strategy would be unlikely to pay off because, over time, demand for oil would fall and new supplies would come on stream — pushing prices back down. “They’ve seen this lesson work in the ’80s,” said John Lichtblau, chairman of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation. “It isn’t just some theoretical capitalist point. ” MIDDLE EAST COUNTRIES WILL NOT SHUT OFF OIL SUPPLIES REGARDLESS OF WHO IS RULING Paul Blustein, Washington Post Staff Writer, 1996 [Sept. 18, The Washington Post: HEADLINE: An Unstable Middle East Won't Put the U.S. Over a Barrel\\jan] But OPEC’s ability to rig the market has withered away as its members’ thirst for cash has risen. That’s a stark contrast with the 1970s, when Saudi Arabia and a couple of other Persian Gulf states were so flush with petrodollars that they could easily afford to curb production. “What we’ve learned since then is that nobody supplies oil on the world markets because they have friends,” said Milton Russell, director of the Joint Institute for Energy and the Environment at the University of Tennessee. “They supply oil on world markets to make money.” Iran and Libya may be radical Muslim states, but they pump as much oil as they can to raise funds for their rapidly growing populations. Saudi Arabia’s welfare state has become so costly that the desert kingdom’s net foreign assets (its holdings of overseas assets, minus its liabilities) have shrunk from well over $ 100 billion in the early 1980s to less than $ 10 billion today. OIL WILL REMAIN STABLE FOR THE NEXT 15 YEARS. SUCCESSION WILL NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AS LONG AS THERE IS AN OIL MARKET Snow, Nick 1996 [Oil & Gas Investor, May: It's still the Middle East\\jan] Such concern is far from universal. Prior to becoming chairman of Halliburton Co. earlier this year, Richard B. Cheney was elected to six terms in the U.S. House of Representatives and worked for three Republican presidents, most recently as George Bush’s defense secretary where he coordinated Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm in response to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. He characterizes his outlook toward the Middle East as “fairly optimistic” with Saudi Arabia remaining the dominant oil supplier to the world. Obviously, it’s a part of the world where flare-ups will create instability,” he says. “But I think some commentators and journalists’ conclusions are overdrawn. It’s not an abnormal process for rulers there to take power by pushing their predecessors aside. I think that the U.S. demonstration of commitment and resolve in the Gulf War greatly added to the region’s stability. There may be short-term disruptions. But whoever governs those states has to sell the resources. The trend is stable over the next 10 to 15 years.” THE OIL SUPPLY WILL BE STABLE FOR THE NEXT FIFTEEN YEARS Snow, Nick 1996 [Oil & Gas Investor, May: It's still the Middle East\\jan] “Complacency is a value term,” observes John H. Lichtblau, chairman of Petroleum Industry Research Foundation Inc. in New York. “The assumption that there’s enough oil around for the foreseeable future may be fundamentally correct. In the 1980s people were saying that there was not enough oil to supply all our needs. That kind of forecast, in addition to political problems in oil supplying countries, made some people say that we’d have supply problems by the end of the century. Obviously, they were wrong. “More oil is being produced now. No one is looking at constrained production for the next 15 years. A great deal of new technology makes it possible to develop resources that couldn’t be developed before. More oil also is being produced from traditional areas. There still are political and economic, but not geologic, reasons why there might again be supply problems.” NEGATIVE HARMS-OIL DEPENDENCY WE ARE SECURE FROM A NEW ENERGY CRISIS THERE WILL BE NO ENERGY CRISIS BETWEEN NOW AND 2050 Financial Times, February 1, 1997; Pg. 03, TITLE: Supplies of energy safe for 50 years // VT98-ACS The next energy crisis is unlikely to occur within 50 years, a senior British businessman said yesterday. Mr John Baker, chairman of National Power, Britain’s biggest electricity producer, said the problems of finding fresh energy resources were unlikely to become an issue until 2050. IF THE US PULLS OUT OF THE OIL BUYING MARKET OIL PRODUCERS WILL MOVE TO OTHER BUYERS Snow, Nick, 1996 [Oil & Gas Investor, May: It's still the Middle East\\jan] While virtually every country sees the need for sanctions against Iraq and Saddam Hussein’s regime there, Cheney feels that embargo measures against other countries have not been very effective. An individual country’s embargo, such as that of the United States against Iran, has virtually no effect, because the target country simply signs a contract with a non-U.S. business. “That’s exactly what happened when the government told Conoco Inc. that it could not develop an oil field there,” says Cheney. Total S.A. “simply took it over.” THE US HAS 164 DAYS OF OIL IN RESERVE Reuters Financial Service, 1996 [HEADLINE: U.S. EXPECTS TO AWARD SPR OIL TENDER\\jan] The stockpile was built in 1975 as a buffer against disruptions like the Arab oil embargo two years earlier. The oil helps meet U.S. obligations under international agreements to hold 90 days’ supply in federal and company inventories. Total U.S. crude stocks today stand at 164 days’ supply, including the 587 million barrels now in the SPR, according to the Energy Department. NEGATIIVE HARMS-OIL DEPENDENCY MIDDLE EAST OIL INTERRUPTIONS WILL NOT CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS THE GULF WAR PROVES THAT A MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT WILL NOT HAVE LONG TERM IMPACTS ON OIL PRICES OR THE ECONOMY Jim Landers, 1996 [THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS, July 16; Saudi blast exposes flaws in energy policy\\jan] We are relying more and more on the military for our energy security. Two lessons were learned painfully from the 1970s oil shocks: Let market forces defeat cartels and handle energy supply and demand. When war intervenes, use strategic stocks of oil and strategic forces to restore peace. The Persian Gulf War saw these lessons in full application . Oil prices went up for a short while, but nobody cried out for price controls. Oil stocks were available and eased buyer fears. The U.S. military took care of the rest. In the years since the gulf war, we have drifted along with these tenets intact. We import most of our oil. We pay gasoline prices that are lower in real terms than they were in the 1970s. THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THE NEXT OIL SHOCK Jim Landers, 1996 THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS, July 16; Saudi blast exposes flaws in energy policy\\jan] In the 1970s, when oil disruptions delivered tremendous blows to the economy, the United States and other free market economies formed the International Energy Agency. Its response plan for oil shocks is very much in sync with the U.S. approach. Market forces have the lead, with strategic oil reserves acting as insurance. There’s no military component in the agency’s plan, but everyone knows whose military would get the call in an energy war. “The system is perfectly satisfactory,” said Robert Priddle, the agency’s executive director, “as long as it’s maintained. And none of our member-’ governments have lost interest in maintaining their obligations.” THE RAISE IN OIL PRICES BECAUSE OF THE GULF WAR WAS COMPARABLE TO THE PRICE HIKE OF THE 1970′S. THIS PROVES THAT ANOTHER OIL SHOCK WILL NOT WREAK HAVOC ON THE ECONOMY Jones, Charles M.; Kaul, Gautam, 1996 [Journal of Finance, June; HEADLINE: Oil and the stock markets; includes appendices\\jan] The dependence of the world economy on oil was again reflected in the international reaction to Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait. The maneuvers by Iraq to raise the world price of oil late in July 1990 and its invasion of Kuwait less than a week later led to a near doubling of oil prices (from $ 16.10 to $ 30.00 per barrel) in the second half of 1990. In fact, the 1990 oil price rise is comparable to even the notorious OPEC price hikes of 1973-1974 and 1979 1980. AN OIL SHOCK OCCURRED IN 1986 – THE ECONOMY WASN’T DISASTROUSLY AFFECTED Snow, Nick 1996 [Oil & Gas Investor, May: It's still the he Middle East\\jan] The other great oil price shock came in l986. Tired of being the “swing” producer within OPEC that adjusted its production to F preserve prices, Saudi Arabia opened its taps and cut prices to whatever it too k to sell all of its oil. The shock was so profound, Lichtblau recalls, because “many had expected the price to stay in the low-to-mid ’20s at least. Many forecasts at that time had talked about increases at least in line with inflation. When prices fell from the high ’20s to the low teens, it was as big a shock as the 1973-74 and 1978-79 increases. “In retrospect,” he says, “it was stupid that the other OPEC nations assumed that Saudi Arabia would absorb all the demand reduction .. Had it not taken its action with the high prices and slow demand, Saudi Arabia would have been out of the market. It was self defense for Saudi Arabia, but also a rescue mission for OPEC. It finally got back together when it agreed that the Saudis no longer would take the marginal producer’s role.” EMPIRICALLY THE US STOCK MARKET DOES NOT OVERREACT TO OIL SHOCKS Jones, Charles M.; Kaul, Gautam, 1996 [Journal of Finance, June; HEADLINE: Oil and the stock markets; includes appendices\\jan] Our detailed investigation of the reaction of ‘the U.S. stock market to oil shocks shows that stock prices rationally reflect the impact of news on current and future real cash flows. We find no evidence of fads and/or market overreaction. While the Canadian stock market also appears to react rationally to oil shocks, the experiences of Japan and the United Kingdom are different. We are unable to completely explain these stock markets reactions to oil price changes within the context of a rational asset pricing framework; oil shocks in Japan and the United Kingdom lead to change s in stock prices that appear to be substantially greater than can be justified by the effects of these shocks on subsequent real cash flows. Our attempts to a account for changing expected returns also cannot help explain the effect of oil shocks on either stock market. Measurement errors in inflation and/or oil price variables and, more importantly, in our proxies for expected real cash flows also do not appear to affect our analysis. Therefore, we conclude that in the ease of Japan and the United Kingdom either: (a) oil price shocks in impact expected stock returns in a way that is not captured by our proxies for expected returns, or (b) these stock markets overreact to oil price shocks. NEGATIVE HARMS-OIL DEPENDENCY OIL SUPPLY SITUATION IS NOW DIVERSIFIED — THE MIDDLE EAST ISN’T AS IMPORTANT OPEC NO LONGER CAN HAVE THE EFFECT THAT IT HAD IN THE 1970′S Snow, Nick 1996 [Oil & Gas Investor, May: It's still ' the Middle East\\jan] It’s not your imagination. A lot has changed worldwide in the oil and gas industry in 15 years. Petroleum-consuming nations no longer quake when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries holds its twice-yearly ministerial meetings to set prices and production levels. Privatization, advanced technology and joint ventures have replaced nationalization and high tax and royalty schedules as key strategies for countries trying to exploit petroleum assets. THE OIL MARKET IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN IT WAS IN THE 1970′S. THE MIDDLE EAST CAN NO LONGER AFFECT THE MARKET IN THE SAME WAY Paul Blustein, Washington Post Staff Writer, 1996 [Sept. 18, The Washington Post: HEADLINE: An Unstable Middle East Won't Put the U.S. Over a Barrel\\jan] Once again, the Middle East is crackling with instability. The latest military confrontation with Iraq -and the ensuing surge in global oil prices — came just 10 weeks after the deadly bombing of a U. S. military barracks in Saudi Arabia. And once again, pundits are bemoaning the fact that 23 years after the first “energy crisis,” the United States remains dependent on this volatile region for oil. What the hand-wringing analysts haven’t noticed is that fundamental changes have taken place in the global energy market — changes that have dramatically weakened the power of Middle Eastern oil exporters. As the chart at right shows, oil now behaves much more like an ordinary commodity, with prices rising and falling in response to supply and demand fluctuations, than it used to in the period before the early ’80s — when prices essentially were fixed by government officials at home and abroad. Today, oil prices are set in spot markets and futures markets around the world. Two decades ago, when such markets barely existed, the price of oil seemed headed inexorably upward, in stair step fashion, responding to the dictates of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. And in the decades before the emergence of OPEC, oil prices were allowed to rise gradually in accord with the decisions of industry regulators such as the Texas Railroad Commission. “It’s a whole different world There really weren’t true oil markets back in the 1970s as there are today,” said Douglas Bohi, a senior fellow at Resources for the Future, a Washington-based think tank. PRODUCTION OUTSIDE OF THE MIDDLE EAST IS RAPIDLY INCREASING Energy Economist, 1996 [AUGUST, HEADLINE: energy Market Report: Crude oil & products\\JAN] The prospects for non OPEC production, almost irrespective of whether crude oil prices are closer to $ 15 rather than $ 20 per barrel, continue to look good, even if there are inevitably some temporary disappointments. For some time, when planning new developments, oil companies have assumed that oil prices might be low, possibly around $ 15, forever. This means that any significant changes in oil prices is good news. John Browne, BP Chief Executive, speaking at a London press conference, was bullish on group production potential: BP total oil and gas production could be 1.8 mbdoe by 2000 and might even reach 2.0 mbdoe. Average lifting costs could be less than $ 2 a barrel and finding and developing costs could be lower than $ 5 per barrel. Once the new fields had reached plateau production levels, they would be yielding 800,000 doe at lifting costs some 30 per cent below current levels. NON OPEC OIL PRODUCTION WILL CONTINUE TO RISE Energy Economist, 1996 [AUGUST, HEADLINE: Energy Market Report: Crude oil & products\\JAN] OPEC will not welcome the news that non OPEC production, anticipated to rise by 1.5 mbd this year could go up by an additional 1.6 mbd in 1997. Next year, the pace of increase in OECD oil demand could slow to 1.4 per cent, despite an acceleration in economic growth, “due to an assumed return to normal weather”. In contrast, non OECD oil demand growth is forecast to accelerate to 4.1 percent, mainly due to a projected slowdown in the decline in FSU demand. NEGATIVE HARMS-ACID RAID ACID RAIN HARMS ARE INAPPROPRIATE AFFIRMATIVE CLAIMS THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN THE POLLUTION WHICH CAUSES ACID RAIN R. Monastersky, staff writer, 1993; SCIENCE NEWS, July 10; “Acid precipitation drops in the United States” // hyatt-VT98 Measaurements of rainwater at selected locatiobns across the United States reveal a singificant decline in the pollution that causes acid rain, according to a report issued last week by the US Geological Survey. WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT “PROPER” ACID RAIN LEVELS ARE Gregg Easterbrook, editor at Newsweek, 1995; A MEMENT ON THE EARTH p179 // hyattVT98 Nor is it possible to say that the roughly 50% acid rain reduction now in progress is the “correct” level in any scientific sense. In a world where the only thing we know about the environment is that we don’t know what we don’t know, the notion of scientific certainty in ecological policy is a chimera. The goals William Reilly chose for the US acid rain effort are essentially arbitrary ones, selected because they seemed attainable politically and bearable economically. They may or may not do the job. THE MARKETPLACE IS DEVELOPING ACID RAIN SOLUTIONS Jeff Johnson, staff writer, December, 1995; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, “Utilities cut pollution, save money, but few trade allowances.” // hyatt-VT98 But even wiothout trades, Burtraw [Dallas Burtraw, Resources for the Future] said the flexibility inherent in the acid rain control program has created a dynamic marketplace, putting pollution control alternatives into direct competition with one another. The result is competition and innovation among coal marketers, coal rail transporters, and scrubber manufacturers, and utilities are the beneficiaries. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT INDICATES THAT ACID RAIN IS HARMFUL TO HUMANS OR CROPS Roland Bailey, former science writer for Forbes, 1993; ECO-SCAM, p. 24 The federal government’s National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) spent over ten years and $500 million to study the alleged destruction being wrought by acid rain on forest, crops, and lakes in the northeastern United States and Canada. “There is no evidence of widespread forest damage from current ambient levels of acidic rain in the United States,” was the report’s succinct conclusion. NAPAP soil scientist Edward Krug notes, “We found that the average Adirondack lake is no more acidic now than prior to the industrial revolution — not 100 fold more aciudic as claimed by the EPA.” Scientific research proved overwhelmingly that acid rain was at most an environmental nuisance, not the environmental catastrophe it was portrayed as being by the apocalyptics. ACID RAIN IS A NATURAL PHENOMENA, ALARMISTS MISUNDERSTOOD IT Gregg Easterbrook, editor for Newsweek, 1995; A MOMENT ON THE EARTH, p. 168 // VT98km And a chemist named Edward Krug maintained that the basis of scientific understanding of acids rain is erroneous. Krug, whose work has been published in peer reviewed technical jouirnals — more than can be said for many acid rain alarmists — believes that most acid in Eastern lakes and forests originates noit in raindrops but from the soil, set free by plant action. Krug thinks lake bottom core samples show most water bodies in eastern North America have been acidic since the end of the Pleistocene Age. NEGATIVE HARMS-GENERAL DOMINANCE OF FOSSIL FUELS WILL REMAIN EVEN AFTER THE AFFIRMATIVE PLAN LONG ENERGY FACILITY TIME FRAMES MEAN NEW ENERGY SOURCES COME ON LINE SLOWLY Frank Bevc; Samuel Harkness, Power Engineering, October, 1996; Pg. 47; TITLE: Darwinism determines technological survivors; Special Centennial Issue; The Next Century of Power Generation: A Look Ahead // VT98-acs In an industry where new power plant planning and budgeting cycles stretch from one to three years, where a typical new generation product takes from five to 10 years to successfully enter the market and where some plants have a 30- to 50-year economic life, change is an evolutionary process. NOTHING IS GOING TO REPLACE FOSSIL FUELS Patricia Fry Godley, Assistant Secretary For Fossil Energy, U.S. Department Of Energy, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Statement Before The House Appropriations Committee Subcommittee On Interior And Related Agencies // VT98-acs Fossil fuels are fundamental to this country’s future. We cannot expect to heat our homes, fuel our factories, power our automobiles or grow the economy without these fuels. In fact, in both the 1996 and 1997 editions of the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook, one projection remains constant: Fossil fuels, which supply 85% of our nation’s energy today, will increase their energy contribution in the 21st century. By 2010, the United States will likely rely on coal, petroleum and natural gas for up to 88% of its energy. WE WOULD LIKE TO KICK THE IMPORTED OIL HABIT, BUT THERE JUST AREN’T ANY FEASIBLE RENEWABLE ENERGY ALTERNATIVES Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Commercial Appeal (Memphis), September 22, 1996, SECTION: VIEWPOINT, Pg. 4B, TITLE: Oil habit keeps United States entangled with Iraq // VT98-acs Why the apparent lack of interest in kicking our national oil habit? If we no longer needed Persian Gulf oil, we could marginalize Saddam Hussein, the Saudi terrorist bombers and the entire region. The main problem is the broad agreement that there are no real alternatives to the gulf’s cheap, abundant oil. WE WOULD LIKE TO KICK THE IMPORTED OIL HABIT, BUT THERE JUST AREN’T ANY FEASIBLE RENEWABLE ENERGY ALTERNATIVES Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Commercial Appeal (Memphis), September 22, 1996, SECTION: VIEWPOINT, Pg. 4B, TITLE: Oil habit keeps United States entangled with Iraq // VT98-acs Why the apparent lack of interest in kicking our national oil habit? If we no longer needed Persian Gulf oil, we could marginalize Saddam Hussein, the Saudi terrorist bombers and the entire region. The main problem is the broad agreement that there are no real alternatives to the gulf’s cheap, abundant oil. NEGATIVE HARMS-WILL MODEL THE USA CLAIMS THAT WE NEED THE AFFIRMATIVE FOR OTHER NATIONS TO MODEL RENEWABLE ENERGY IS SILLY — THEY ARE WAY AHEAD OF US DOESN’T MATTER IF OTHER NATIONS ARE DEVELOPING RENEWABLE ENERGY PROCESSES -WE WILL JUST GET THE KNOWLEDGE FROM THEM — IT WILL BE A WIN-WIN SITUATION Fred L. Smith, Jr. President The Competitive Enterprise Institute, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee // VT98-acs A final argument for federal R&D is the “me too” argument. America must fund such projects because other nations do. Unless America invests as heavily in R&D as do Japan and Germany, we will fall behind in the international competitive sweepstakes. There is much wrong with this argument. First, countries do not lose if their neighbors find more efficient ways of producing some good or service. All mankind benefits when knowledge is increased anywhere. To view such gains as losses is to replicate the old mercantilist idea that international trade and commerce are like war. RENEWABLE ENERGY IS VERY POPULAR ABROAD, BUT NOT IN THE USA AGIS SALPUKAS, The New York Times, March 9, 1997, Section 4; Page 5; TITLE: Inheriting the Wind; Green Power Wanes, but Not at the Grass Roots // VT98-acs The renewable energy industry is fighting to keep a foothold in the United States; some companies manage by selling wind turbines and solar panels to underdeveloped countries. A flourishing international market has enabled some companies to survive the downturn in this country. Wind and solar power is popular in countries like India and Pakistan where large rural areas are without power plants and extensive transmission systems. Some European countries are also satisfied customers. CHINA AND INDIA ARE COOPERATING ON RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WILL BE THE MODELS FOR THE WORLD ASIA PULSE, March 26, 1997, TITLE: INDIA, CHINA MODELS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY USE: US OFFICIAL // VT98-acs Praising commendable work done by two Asian giants, India and China, in tapping renewable sources of energy such as solar, biomass and wind, former U.S. Secretary of Energy, Hazel O’Leary, has said their achievements could be adopted as models for the rest of the world. INDIA AND CHINA ARE WORKING TOGETHER ON RENEWABLE ENERGY Deutsche Presse-Agentur, April 9, 1997, TITLE: India, China to work together on renewable energy // VT98-acs India and China will cooperate in the field of renewable energy sources and exchange technology and services in the areas of their respective strengths, a senior Indian government official announced Wednesday. CHINA IS ADVANCING QUICKLY IN DEVELOPING RENEWABLE ENERGY Xinhua News Agency, APRIL 23, 1997, TITLE: china makes progress in new and renewable energy development // VT98-acs china has scored great achievements in developing renewable energy from solar, wind, geothermal and tidal sources. by the end of 1995, the annual utilization rate of renewable energy had reached 300 million tons of standard coal, mostly from straw stalks and fuel wood used by the farmers as living fuel, accounting for a quarter of the total national consumption of primary energy and over 47 percent of energy consumption in rural areas. CHINA IS RAPIDLY INCREASING THE USE OF WIND ENERGY DENNIS WAMSTED, New Technology Week, September 3, 1996, TITLE: PC-Like Growth Spurt Ahead For Windpower? // VT98-acs In China, for example, the government estimates that the nation’s windpower resource base is some 253,000 MW 40 percent more than the country’s existing generating capacity. And there is nowhere to go but up, since the country now has just 36 MW of installed windpower generation. Current plans call for 1,000 MW to be in operation by 2000. OTHER NATIONS ARE WAY AHEAD OF US IN WIND ENERGY THE ELECTRICITY DAILY, February 3, 1997, TITLE: Wind Blows Strongly Worldwide // VT98acs “Other countries around the world are increasingly making use of this promising clean energy source,” said Randy Swisher, executive director of the wind trade group, “while the United States remains without a serious policy to encourage wind and other renewable energy technologies. It’s vital that as utility restructuring proceeds, we find a way to preserve the renewable energy option and remain competitive in what is likely to be one of the largest new global manufacturing markets of the 21st Century.” NEGATIVE HARMS-WARMING A LITTLE BIT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY WON’T SAVE US IF THE AFFIRMATIVE IS RIGHT ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING IT IS RIDICULOUS TO THINK THAT RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL SAVE US FROM CLIMATE CHANGE Global Warming Network Online Today, November 1, 1996, TITLE: Johnston Touts Nukes As Greenhouse Deterrent // VT98-acs Barclay Jones, nuclear engineering professor at the University of Illinois, told the hearing, “We can’t pretend that some magic energy source will appear suddenly and save us from the consequences of climate change. The fact is, only six-tenths of one percent of the nation’s electricity currently comes from solar, wind, and geothermal.” FOSSIL FUEL USE WILL INCREASE, MAKING HOPES OF REDUCING GREENHOUSE GASES DIM Clive Brown, The Herald (Glasgow), December 26, 1996: Pg. 12, TITLE: Why wind-power is really necessary // VT98-acs The stampede towards greater energy use is occurring partly in the “developed world” (largely cars) but more especially in the “developing countries”. On present trends the vast bulk of the increased consumption will continue to be from fossil fuels, so that unless some radical changes occur the likelihood of stabilising, let alone reducing, greenhouse gas emissions must unfortunately be non-existent. ———————————————NEGATIVE HARMS-GLOBAL WARMING THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE GLOBAL WARMING THEORY -SIGNIFICANT DOUBT EXISTS THERE IS INSUFFICIENT DATA TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE EARTH HAS WARMED .. Michael L. Parsons, Ph.D. Science & Environmental Policy Project, Fairfax, VA, 1995; GLOBAL WARMING: THE TRUTH BEHIND THE MYTH Blemberg-29 p.235 This brings us to a conclusion that is not in agreement with the assessment of( the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and that is that the earth has not warmed by 0-.3-0.6 degrees C during the past 100 years. Or, if the earth has warmed the data are insufficient to detect this warming in the presence of the very large temperature variations from day to night, summer to winter , and decade to decade. STUDIES SHOW LITTLE TO NO GLOBAL WARMING Hugo Beltrami, geophysicist at McGill U & David Chapman, geophysicist @ Utah, April 23, 1994. NEW SCIENTIST vol. 142. No 1922. “Drilling for a Past Climate // Massingil-8 p.38 However, not all geothermal studies reveal the same pattern of warming in Alaska and eastern Canada. In 1990, Tim Chisolm and Dave Chapman at the University of Utah, reported on seven boreholes in the Great Basin of western Utah. Their analysis shows little or no warming. In fact, one shows a slight cooling. On average, surface temperature in western Utah appears to have changed by as little as 0.3 degrees C in this century. This seems to imply that global warming may not be global. NEGATIVE HARMS-GLOBAL WARMING GLOBAL WARMING DATA AND MODELS ARE FAULTY — OTHER FORCES ARE AT WORK GLOBAL WARMING IS A FUND-RAISER FOR SCIENTISTS Michael L. Parsons, Ph.D. Science & Environmental Policy Project, Fairfax, VA, 1995; GLOBAL WARMING THE TRUTH BEHIND THE MYTH // Blemberg Nonetheless, because of public pronouncements by some scientists fists, copious propaganda provided by environmental organizations, and zealous reporting by the media, a popular myth has evolved about global warming, prompting institutional calls for action. This myth is partly based in fact, but it is exaggerated in detail. The exaggerations have been propagated by some scientists, perhaps because of the need for popular and political support to fund the very expensive climate research. COMPUTER MODELS MUST BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT Roger Highfield, science editor, February 5, 1996. THE DAILY TELEGRAPH, “Global Warming ‘may cause more floods and droughts”‘, pg 1O \Barreto-12 Giegengack wonders where all the CO2 is going. “We produce 6.2 billion tons a year from the burning of fossil fuels and from cement production. In addition, two billion tons are released as a result of tropical deforestation. In the atmosphere, the annual measured increase is 3.5 billion tons. That’s five billion tons that aren’t getting into the atmosphere. Where’s the rest of it going? We know that some of it is going into the oceans, and some of it is being stored in forest lands. But the increase we’re worrying about is smaller than the missing components. Our understanding of the carbon cycle is just not sufficient to tell us if the atmospheric C O2 increases we’re seeing are natural, natural plus artificial or wholly artificial. One should take the computer models with the proverbial grain of salt. SATELLITES MEASURE CLIMATE CHANGE BETTER THAN MODELS, AND THEY INDICATE COOLING, NOT WARMING ATMOSPHERIC MONITORING AND ABATEMENT NEWS, OCTOBER 1, 1995, “STUDY CHALLENGES WARMING PREDICTION”, NO.9, VOL 3 //HOEPER Real world temperature measurements are a better guide to understanding global climate change than theoretical predictions, the third conclusion of the report. Comparisons between observations of global temperature and computer projections indicate that the computer models consistently exaggerate global warming. For instance, the theoretical estimates predict a particularly intense warming in recent decades in the Arctic. Satellite measurements of temperature, supported by ground-based measurements in the Arctic, tell us that this region has cooled substantially in the last 16 years, not warmed. SCIENTISTS CONFIRM CORRELATION BETWEEN SUNSPOTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE Michelle Malkin, Staff Writer, July 16 1996. THE SEATTLE TIMES, “Getting Hot and Bothered Over Global Warming Hype”//Katz-7 Mainstream science in our own back yard reveals many more caveats about globalwarming theory. There is growing evidence, for example, about cyclical variations in the amount of the sun’s heat that reaches the earth affects global temperatures. Last fall, scientists from the University of Washington found a correlation between the 11-year cycle of sunspot to temperature changes reflected in ice cores from Greenland. Researchers from Ohio State University, the University of New Hampshire and the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory have reported similar findings.. GLOBAL WARMING CAUSED BY NATURAL PHENOMENON Hempel, Lemant. Associate Professor of Political Science The Claremont Graduate School, 1996; Environmental Governance//PKK- 128 pp. 94-5 Among the mayor sources of uncertainty in predicting changes in climate are the effects of volcanic eruptions, variations in solar output, slight changes in the earth’s orbit, and shifts in ocean currents, such as the Pacific Ocean’s El Nino phenomenon. The natural variability of solar output and its effect on the earth’s climate may be one of the least understood of these external “forcing” factors. Without carefully analyzing the changes that occur in a normal solar cycle — about twenty-two years — and isolating them from the effects of greenhouse warning, it is almost impossible to tic increases in particular greenhouse gases to changes in climate. NEGATIVE HARMS-GLOBAL WARMING THE BEST STRATEGY WOULD BE TO DELAY — WAIT AND SEE IF IT IS TRUE, THEN ACT CLIMATE EXPERTS AGREE WE SHOULD DELAY ACTIONS TO SOLVE GLOBAL WARNING Charles Clover, Environment Editor, July 9, 1996 The Daily Telegraph, “Big bang strategy for global heating”, p. 8//Castillo-2 Although many will argue that “the petroleum industry would say that wouldn’t they”, the idea of allowing greenhouse gases to build up unabated for 25 years before cutting global emissions drastically in one fell swoop does have the backing of climate experts including Prof. Tom Wigley, at the University of East Anglia. In a paper in Nature earlier this year, Prof. Wigley and his fellow authors argued that the benefits of allowing more carbon to build up in the atmosphere would be that more would be taken up by natural vegetation than under a strategy of slow adaptation. The “big bang” introduction of cleaner technologies would then allow the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide – the main greenhouse gas – to fall off, stabilizing the climate. DELAYING ACTIONS FOR 25 YEARS IS CHEAPEST AND BEST WAY TO SOLVE Charles Clover, Environment Editor, July 9, 1996 The Daily Telegraph, “Big bang strategy for global heating”, p. 8//Castillo-2 THE CHEAPEST and most effective way to tackle global warming is to do nothing for 25 years and then introduce clean technologies and energy taxes in one “big bang.” according to a report published yesterday. The research, to be presented to delegates from 160 countries at climate talks in Geneva today, suggests that the world’s economies should spend the next two decades accelerating the development of clean sources, such as solar power, instead of taxing fuels. This finding is based on a new computer model developed for the American petroleum industry by David Montgomery, of the Washington-based firm, of consultants Charles River Associates, and Prof. Tom Rutherford, of Colorado University. NEGATIVE HARMS-GLOBAL WARMING A WARMER CLIMATE WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR HUMANITY HUMANS CAN PROSPER DURING WARM PERIODS. Imtiaz A. Khan, staff, November 16, 1995. CONGRESSIONAL HEARINGS SUMMARIES “Global Models and Projections of Potential Impacts of Global Climate Change”\\Barreto-6 “Based upon historical evidence,” Moore asserted, earlier warm periods were good for mankind.” Humans prospered during warm periods, he continued, they lived longer and were apparently healthier than humans from colder periods. Evidence that the earth has grown warmer is “shaky,” he added, and the theories are weak. Human activity, he asserted, will not play a major role in climate change Although noting that global warming would not benefit all regions of the world, he concluded, “On the whole, though, mankind should benefit from an upward tick in the thermometer.” GLOBAL WARMING WILL BENEFIT HUMAN KIND. Jim Mota Villa, Eco Reporter, February 5, 1996. THE DAILY TELEGRAPH. “Global Warming ‘may cause more floods and droughts”‘, pg 10 / Barreto Should we worry about these dramatic predictions? Not according, to Thomas Gale Moore, a senior fellow at the conservative Hoover Institution in California who, in a report posted on the World Wide Web, opines, “Global warming would in general be beneficial for mankind.. Simple logic indicates that most of modern man’s activities would be unaffected by a warming of five to nine degrees Fahrenheit.” ‘ WARMING WILL SAVE LIVES DURING THE WINTER OFFSETTING SUMMER DEATHS. Richard Monastersky, Science Writer, 1996; Science News April 6, Pg. 216 // Walts During winter, however, warming could have the opposite effect in some regions. One British study, cited in the IPCC report, concluded that by 2050, warming of 2 to 2.5C will save 9,000 lives each year in England and Wales. Most of these people would otherwise have died from heart disease and stroke, problems exacerbated by blood’s tendency to clot in colder temperatures. The lives saved would more than balance the increase in deaths from Britain’s relatively mild heat waves, says Anthony J. McMichael, lead author of the IPCC chapter on human health and a researcher at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. NEGATIVE HARMS-GLOBAL WARMING COMMONLY CLAIMED WARMING HARMS ARE FALSE TEMPERATURE INCREASE DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING WILL EQUALIZE AND CAUSE NO STORMS Ron Seely, Science Reporter, February 19, 1996. WISCONSIN STATE JOURNAL . “Global warming: Warnings gather steam” pg 1C // Barreto There is still dispute, for example, over the theory that recent extreme weather is a harbinger of global warming. Certainly there is plenty of extreme weather to point to. Midwestern weather has been nothing if not variable this winter, with temperatures nearing 30-below one week and climbing to 50 the next. Elsewhere around the globe, the weather has also been strange. Siberia last year was an average 5 degrees warmer, the largest jump in average temperature in the world. Northeast Brazil suffered through its worst drought of the century last year with only 40 percent of its normal rainfall. And 11 hurricanes, the most since 1933, tore through the Caribbean last fall. Some scientists say such weather extremes should be blamed on nothing more than capriciousness. And they say that if global temperatures do rise, then temperature differences between the poles and the equator will even out and the fury of the storms that form where hot and cold meet will actually diminish. FOCUS ON WARMING INDUCED DISEASE IS UNWARRANTED AND COUNTERPRODUCTIVE Richard Monastersky, Science Writer 1996, Science News April 6, Pg. 218 //Walts As the vast range in hunger estimates demonstrates, scientists are only taking their first steps toward assessing how greenhouse warming will actually affect people In its report, the IPCC admits that its health forecasts are fraught with uncertainty, notably, how much the climate will change, exactly how diseases will respond, and to what extent various countries will be able to protect against future risks. Complicating the picture even further are the myriad other threats to health, especially in developing countries. Increasingly crowded cities, poor sanitation, limited supplies of potable water, and violence all cause major harm today and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. In fact, some public health researchers worry that the growing emphasis on global warming could dilute appreciation of some more important, but perhaps less provocative, factors currently eroding health around the world. “My concern is that you can be distracted by what is in fashion,- says Vilma Santana, an epidemiologist at the Federal University of Bahia in Salvador, Brazil. “I think the major issue is poverty. One of the most consistent findings of epidemiological research is that poverty is positively associated with disease.- Others echo Santana’s concern. “Most of my colleagues in Africa feel that in the [ace of populations without water, toilets, basic access to education, and jobs, global warming is the least threat- says epidemiologist Carolyn Stephens, a colleague of McMichael's. PAST PROVES SEA LEVEL RISE WILL NOT BE DISASTROUS -- WE DON'T NEED TO WORRY ABOUT SEA LEVEL RISE Roger Highfield, science editor, February 5, 1996. THE DAILY TELEGRAPH. "Global Warming 'may cause more floods and droughts", pg 10.\\Barreto- 12 Dr. Robert Giegengack, a professor Ecology at the University of Pennsylvania, points out that weather predictions are still a relatively new science. "There was no decent thermometer until the 1700s," he says. The first weather station opened in Paris in 1762. Most reconstructions of weather trends were not considered reliable until the 1850s." Giegengack is, if not as much of a skeptic as Lindzen, at least wary of global warming claims. And even if the Earth is setting, warmer and sea levels are rising, he doesn't think; we should worry about it all that much. According to Giegengack, "Sea levels 130,000 years ago were 19 feet higher than they are now. And what kind of rise are we talking about now, a millimeter and a half a year? Talk to the Dutch, to people in Bangladesh, Tokyo and Manhattan - they've been handling that kind of problem for a long time. NEGATIVE HARMS-GLOBAL WARMING CUTTING BACK ON FOSSIL FUEL USE WILL BE AN ECONOMIC DISASTER TOO EXPENSIVE AND TOO DANGEROUS TO SET AMBITIOUS CO2 LIMITS EARLY IN THE 21st CENTURY David Lore, science reporter, The Columbus Dispatch, September 22, 1996, Pg. 7C., TITLE: WAITING TO PAY FOR CHEAPER TECHNOLOGIES IS FOLLY // VT98-acs But it's obvious that the administration agrees that it's too expensive - and politically dangerous - to fulfill the country's ''nonbinding'' commitment to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels by 2000, let alone agree to even more ambitious cleanup deadlines being proposed by the Europeans for 2005 or 2010. FOSSIL FUEL RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVASTATE ALL OF CIVILIZATION ROSS GELBSPAN, staff writer, December, 1995; HARPER'S MAGAZINE, "The heat is on,". p. 31 // McCullough The energy industries now constitute the largest single enterprise known to mankind. Moreover, they are indivisible from automobile, farming, shipping, air freight, and banking interests, as well as from the governments dependent on oil revenues for their very existence. With annual sales in excess of one trillion dollars and daily sales of over $2 billion, the oil industry alone supports the economies of the Middle East and large segments of the economies of Russia, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Indonesia, Norway, and Great Britain. Begin to enforce restriction on the consumption of oil and coal, and the effects on the global economy -- unemployment, depression, social breakdown, and war -- might lay waste to what we have come to call civilization. ADDRESSING GLOBAL WARMING WILL HURT US ECONOMY . Roger Highfield, science editor, February 5, 1996; THE DAILY TELEGRAPH "Global Warming 'may cause more floods and droughts"', pg 10 \Barreto-12 The congressional votes prove one thing: that environmentalists are being seriously outflanked in the media. Cautious scientific appraisals like IPCC's are attacked in sensationalistic press conferences by groups like the benign-sounding Global Climate Coalition (GCC), actually an industry front group representing more than 50 corporations and trade associations. Executive Director John Shlacs says that if global warming is taken seriously, it will cripple the nation's economy and the ability of the U.S. to compete in international markets." NEGATIVE HARMS-AIR POLLUTION AIR POLLUTION IS HARMFUL TO HEALTH, BUT CONTROLLING AIR POLLUTION WILL INCREASE GLOBAL WARMING DECREASING FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE WARMING DECREASING EMISSIONS WILL DECREASE BOTH C02 AND S02 S02 COOLING COUNTERACTS C02 WARMING C02 REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANOTHER 100 YEARS S02 REMAINS FOR ONLY A WEEK DECREASING BOTH WOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE WARMING FOR THE NEXT 30 YEARS William Stevens, science writer, February 7 1991, NEW YORK TIMES "Not Using fossil fuels Could Add to warming" Walts p. B10 Efforts to head off predicted global warming by reducing the burning of fossil fuels, as is widely being urged, could actually worsen the warming, in the short run, scientists say. Fossil fuels like coal and oil emit carbon dioxide when they are burned, and the carbon dioxide traps heat in the Earth's atmosphere much like a greenhouse does. Climatologists predict that if the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases like methane and chlorofluorocarbons continues at current rates, the average surface temperature of the Earth will rise 2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit in the next century causing widespread ecological, agricultural and social damage. But in a less-noticed phenomenon, the burning of fossil fuels also emits sulfur dioxide particles, which scientists refer to as aerosols. These reflect sunlight, cooling the Earth and partly offsetting whatever warming may be taking place. A reduction in the burning of fossil fuels would reduce this cooling effect. The resulting rise in temperature could more than compensate for the cooling that would be achieved by the accompanying reduction in carbon dioxide in the next 10 to 30 years, according to a study, reported in today's issue of the British journal Nature by Dr. T. M. L. Wigley a climatologist at the University of East Anglia in England. This means that global warning could be more intense than expected for up to three decades, Dr. Wigley found, after which the reduction in burning fossil fuels would begin to bring about a global cooling. l The reason for the lag is that the effect of carbon dioxide reductions would be felt only over decades, since that is how long it takes them to work their way through the ocean-atmosphere climate system. By contrast, the effect of atmospheric sulfur dioxide particles is felt almost immediately and dies away rapidly once emissions stop. "If you instantly stopped burning fossil fuels, then the aerosols would fall out in a couple of days," said Dr. .James E. Hansen, a climatologist at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. "The greenhouse gases stay there for 100 years, so you'd actually increase the heating" in the short term. "But in the long run, you'd decrease the temperature and the heating." The calculations "look very reasonable,. said Dr. Robert J. Charlson, an atmospheric chemist at the University of Washington who is an expert on aerosols and climate. Dr. Charlson said that both he and Dr. Wigley are persuaded that the question of the aerosols' effect on global warming is "a sleeping giant of a sort." It is "something that has been missed, and the consequences are not trivial, " he said. "It is going to complicate matters in terms of setting policy." AEROSOLS LEAD TO BRIGHTER CLOUDS WHICH REFLECT LIGHT CAUSING COOLING David Berreby, Staff Writer, July 1993; DISCOVER, Vol. 14 No. 7 "The Parasol Effect; Sulfate Aerosols Block Sun's Rays and May Cause Cooling" // Walts p. 44 When Charlson and his colleagues made this announcement, they noted that their finding might explain why even the best models of global warming, have predicted hotter temperatures than those that have actually been measured. They also pointed out that their assessment of aerosol effects may in fact be too conservative. Charlson says it includes only the direct effect of aerosols, there's even more cooling going on indirectly. Those colorless combinations of oxygen and sulfur-collectively known as sulfates -have a chemical affinity for water. They pull free-floating moisture out of the air and condense it into droplets of liquid water and acid; in fact, sulfates are the acid in acid rain. Put a bunch of these droplets together and you get a cloud. So wherever there are excess aerosols, clouds are more numerous, further shading the planet. Moreover, the more aerosols that are in the air, the smaller will be the water droplets making up the clouds, because the available water vapor will be condensing around a larger number of particles. That also has a cooling effect. "Try putting equal amounts of table salt and rock salt on a black; tablecloth and you'll see it," Charlson says. "You can see the table through the rock salt because there are fewer particles blocking your view. Everything else held constant, the cloud with more droplets will be brighter than the one with fewer droplets." And a bright cloud reflects more heat than a dull one. The physics and chemistry of cloud formation are not yet understood well enough for Charlson or an, other expert to make a good estimate of the scope of this indirect cooling effect, but few in the field doubt that it's large. NEGATIVE HARMS-AIR POLLUTION AIR POLLUTION IS HARMFUL TO HEALTH, BUT CONTROLLING AIR POLLUTION WILL INCREASE GLOBAL WARMING [p. 2] AEROSOLS INCREASE COOLING OF CLOUDS Stephen Schwartz, Staff Writer, and Meinrat Andreae,, Staff Writer, May 24, 1996. SCIENCE, Vol. 272, No. 5265 “Uncertainty in Climate Change caused by Aerosols”//Walts-2 p. 121 The climatic influence of aerosols is complex. Light scattering by aerosols decreases penetration of solar radiation through the atmosphere and absorption at the surface, thereby exerting a cooling influence. This scattering by aerosols can readily be observed from aircraft as a whitish veil over the landscape. The presence of anthropogenic aerosols is thought to have roughly doubled the amount of light scattered back into space by particles in the atmosphere . In addition, increased aerosol particle concentrations, by increasing cloud droplet concentrations, enhance cloud reflectivity and inhibit precipitation development, causing clouds to persist longer and resulting in still more reflection of sunlight . The decrease in absorption of solar radiation due to anthropogenic aerosols, the “forcing” of climate by these aerosols, is estimated to be comparable, but of opposite sign, to climate forcing resulting from increased absorption of terrestrial al infrared radiation by enhanced atmospheric concentrations of CO.sub.2 and other polyatomic molecules, the anthropogenic “greenhouse” forcing . AEROSOLS CAUSE BOTH DIRECT AND INDIRECT COOLING T.M.L. Wigley, Dir. of the Office for Interdisciplinary Earth Studies of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 1994. Climate Change and the Agenda for Research,” The Contribution from Emissions of Different Gases to the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect”// Castillo p. 210 The possible importance of sulfate aerosols (arising from the oxidation of fossil fuel derived SO2) has only recently been appreciated. It was because of his realization that Leggett et al (1992) included SO2 emissions in the IPCC92 scenarios. Aerosols have two different effects on the atmosphere’s radiative balance. In clear sky conditions, they scatter a fraction of the incoming solar radiation back into space, promoting a surface cooling effect. They also affect the reflectivity of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs). In marine clouds, which are CCN deficient more CCNs lead to more but smaller cloud droplets which, in turn, reflect more incoming solar radiation back to space. These two effects are referred to as the direct and in direct effects respectively. The former is thought to dominate, but the magnitudes of both effects are highly uncertain. AEROSOLS LEAD TO A COOLER WORLD T.M.L. Wigley, Dir. of the Office for Interdisciplinary Earth Studies of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 1994. Climate Change and the Agenda for Research, “How Important are Carbon Cycle Uncertainties?” //Castillo 11 p.170 Finally, sulfur dioxide (SO2) may have a climatic effect. When SO2 is oxidized in the atmosphere it forms small droplets of sulfate (mainly sulfuric acid or ammonium sulfate ) called aerosols. These reduce the amount of incoming short-wave radiation and have a cooling effect. Aerosols operate in two ways. In clear-sky conditions they scatter the incoming radiation in all directions. Since a fraction is scattered back into space, the total amount of incoming radiation is reduced. Sulfate aerosols also act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs), causing marine clouds (which are normally CCN deficient), to have more, but smaller droplets. This, in turn, makes these clouds reflect more solar radiation back into space. The former direct aerosol effect is thought to dominate over the latter indirect effect. Aerosols also a affect outgoing long wave radiation, but this effect is much smaller than their short-wave effect. NEGATIVE HARMS-AIR POLLUTION AEROSOL COOLING EFFECT OF FOSSIL FUEL POLLUTANTS STOPS CO2 WARMING MODELS INCLUDING AEROSOL EFFECT ARE MORE ACCURATE AEROSOL COOLING STOPS CO2 WARMING FRED PEARCE, staff writer, July 9, 1994; NEW SCIENTIST, “Not warming but cooling” p.37 // Hamilton According to Thomas Karl of the US government’s National Climatic Data Center in North Carolina, “the emerging picture is that although much of the world’s land mass has warmed since the late 1940’s, the areas with high sulfur dioxide emissions have cooled.” Computer models have predicted that emissions of sulfur dioxide from power stations are shielding ever larger parts of the planet from global warming; now these predictions are starting to be backed by observational data showing the same thing. Many other aerosols produced by humans — including soot and other organic particles from burning rain forests and crop stubble and dust storms from land that is turning to desert — may also be cooling the planet. AEROSOLS COMPLETELY CANCEL GLOBAL WARMING Michael L Parsons, Ph.D. Science and Environmental Policy Project Fairfax, VA, 1995. Global Warming, “Aerosols-// Walts- 1 pg.217 Remember that over 60% of the world is covered by clouds at on e time. In his 1994 NATURE article, “Dirty Clouds and Global Cooling,- Graeme Stephens, of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, summarized the growing evidence that clouds that are “dirty. from manmade aerosols provide a greater cooling effect then other clouds. The evidence indicates that there are more, but smaller, particles in dirty clouds which are more efficient at reflecting the sun’s radiation. Therefore, these particles increase the albedo of the polluted clouds. Stephens states: “When all effects of anthropogenically produced aerosol are taken together, then the predicted global forcing is in magnitude to the direct forcing by greenhouse gases.- This means simply that computer climate models can predict a cooling effect of greenhouse gases that is equal to the predicted warming effect. MODELS THAT INCLUDE AEROSOLS ARE MORE ACCURATE Michael D. Lemonick, staff writer, October 2, 1995; TIME MAGAZINE. “Heading for Apocalypse?’ Pg. 54.\\Barreto-4 When the scientists (at NCAR) tried to simulate what they believe has been happening over the past century or so, the results didn’t mesh with reality; the models said the world should now be warmer than it actually is. The reason is that the c computer models had been overlooking an important factor affecting global temperatures: aerosols, the tiny droplets of chemicals like sulfur dioxide that ire produced along with C02 when fossil fuels are burned in cars and power plants. Aerosols actually cool the planet by blocking sunlight and mask; the effects of global warming. Says Tom Wigley, a climatologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and a member of the international panel: “We were looking for the needle in the wrong haystack.” ———————————————————————————————————————NEGATIVE HARMS-AIR POLLUTION TRYING TO CONTROL FOSSIL FUEL AIR POLLUTION AND ACID RAIN WILL INCREASE GLOBAL WARMING SO2 OFFSETS WARMING : TRYING TO DECREASE EMISSIONS WILL ONLY INCREASE WARMING Global Warming Network Online Today, September 16 1994. GLOBAL WARMING NETWORK ONLINE TODAY, “Aerosol Effects Raise Questions, Is ‘Global Warming,’ a Misnomer?” // Walts The term “global warming” may be a misnomer, according to climatologists who argue that the old theories used to explain global climate change are too simplistic to explain temperature drops in industrialized areas and other complex phenomena. As a result of this paradigm shift, policy makers are facing new uncertainties. “The term ‘global warming,’…couldn’t be farther from the truth,” says atmospheric chemist Robert Charlson at the University of Washington in Seattle. Charlson and other researchers, such as Jeffrey Kiehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, believe that new evidence shows that man-made climate change is not just a greenhouse effect but more of a regional cooling event that may be tied to local aerosol sources formed from fossil fuel burning. Aerosol particles formed from the same sulfur pollution responsible for acid rain scatters incoming sunshine, producing a cooling effect. The particles m may also indirectly increase cloud cover, which further insulates the Earth from the sun’s rays. Scientists don’t fully understand ho“ the aerosols affect clouds, however. The only thing of which they are certain is that looking for trends in temperature data has been “a false guide.” International efforts to curb C02 use may still be justified in the name of energy conservation, but scientists are suggesting that there is little scientific evidence to suggest that lower C02 emissions will restrict climate change. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-WIND WIND ENERGY CAN NEVER BE AN IMPORTANT ENERGY SOURCE WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY HAS BEEN PLAGUED BY TOO MUCH HYPE JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 161 The US. wind industry bus always been plagued by a good clear of hype. -Paul Gipe, Gipe and Associates WIND POWER’S UNRELIABILITY MEANS IT CANNOT BE A LARGE PART OF THE ENERGY MIX Bernard Ingham, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS But you resolutely refuse to face up to wind power’s unreliability. Since it can never guarantee to supply a given amount in vast bulk it could never, however cheap, supplant those forms of electricity generation – presently coal, oil, gas, nuclear and hydropower which can. EXPERIENCE SHOWS WIND POWER CAN NEVER BE MORE THAN A MARGINAL ENERGY SOURCE Bernard Ingham, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS My objection to wind farms is not to wind power as such. Indeed, I would favour the harvesting of the wind if it could be done economically and unobtrusively. But my experience in 1978-79, as the Department of Energy official responsible for the so-called benign and renewable sources of energy, persuades me that wind power’s role is always likely to be marginal. WIND ENERGY IS TOO UNRELIABLE TO BE A MAJOR ENERGY SOURCE Bernard Ingham, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS Second, it is unreliable. You cannot run a great industrial nation on wind power when no electricity is generated when the wind does not blow and when turbines have to be shut down when it blows too hard – over about 55mph. WIND POWER PRODUCES ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ENERGY Bernard Ingham, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS Third, it produces minuscule amounts of electricity. The average wind farm of 15 turbines does not generate enough juice to move an InterCity train out of the sidings. WIND POWER WILL NOT SHUT DOWN A SINGLE FOSSIL FUEL OR NUCLEAR PLANT Bernard Ingham, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS Of course, wind power can – expensively – complement other forms of energy. But since it is not a reliable and continuous source, it will not shut a single fossil or nuclear-fuelled power station. WIND ENERGY WILL COMPETE WITH BUT NOT REPLACE FOSSIL FUELS TONI HEINZL, WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER, Omaha World Herald, October 23, 1996; Pg. 1, TITLE: Harnessing the Wind Requires Tests First Experts Study Viability as Energy Source // VT98-acs “I think wind energy is going to be part of the energy mix in the future,” said Ried, manager for energy planning at the Omaha Public Power District. “It’s not going to replace fossil fuels, but it’s going to compete with coal and nuclear power once the costs come down for low-speed wind turbines.” NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-WIND WIND POWER IS NOT AND WILL NOT BE COST EFFECTIVE WIND ENERGY IS 2 OR 3 TIMES AS EXPENSIVE AS COAL Hamish Macdonell, Parliamentary Staff, PA News, Press Association Newsfile, October 30, 1996, TITLE: CURB URGED OVER WINDFARM ‘BLOT’ ON COUNTRYSIDE // VT98-acs Ulster Unionist William Ross (Londonderry E) voiced concern about the cost of producing energy from windfarms. The cost of generating one unit of electricity from coal was 3p, but was 8p or 9p from windfarms, he told the House. WIND POWER SUBSIDIES ARE A WASTE OF MONEY John Campbell, The Independent, January 9, 1997, Page 13: The choice is wind power or selfishness // VT98-acs Wind is unpredictable. When it blows in sufficient strength, the state- of-the-art turbines, operating at about one-third efficiency, create very small quantities of electricity which must be taken by the Grid, whether it needs it or not. Large-scale storage is impossible. Operators are paid about 4p per unit, guaranteed for 15 years. It is a goldmine. CALIFORNIA WIND MODEL CANNOT BE FOLLOWED ELSEWHERE CRISPIN AUBREY, The Independent, October 27, 1996, Page 44, TITLE: THE GREAT CALIFORNIA WIND RUSH; THE BROADER PICTURE // VT98-acs The Californians were in the vanguard of a wind-energy revolution that has proved unexpectedly enduring. Tax credits in the 1980s fuelled a wind rush aimed at providing an alternative to oil. There were failures as well as successes, and even an enthusiast like Gipe accepts that California is not a model to be followed elsewhere. FUNDS SPENT ON PROMOTING WIND POWER WOULD BE BETTER SPENT ON ENERGY CONSERVATION John Campbell, The Independent, January 9, 1997, Page 13: The choice is wind power or selfishness // VT98-acs The money would be better spent on domestic and industrial energy conservation, power station filtering, low-energy light bulbs, and loft insulation, all of which last for years and are silent and invisible. WIND POWER IS NOT GETTING CHEAPER ALL THE TIME — IT IS BEING WIDELY ABANDONED Bernard Ingham, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS If uneconomic wind power is getting cheaper all the time, why are wind farms being shut down in California now that subsidies have been withdrawn? Why has a leading wind power firm gone bust there? And why is the Swedish energy minister considering ending subsidies to renewables because they are not an economically viable alternative to nuclear energy? Dare you suggest a future for British wind energy without subsidies? NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-WIND LARGE SCALE WIND POWER PROGRAMS CANNOT BE EFFECTIVELY IMPLEMENTED WIND POWER IS FACES IMPLEMENTATION BARRIERS FOR INVESTMENT AND LOCATION Severin Carrell, Environment Correspondent, Scotland on Sunday, October 6, 1996, Sunday: Pg. 11, TITLE: Wind power struggle // VT98-acs Developers must first go through an exhaustive bidding process to secure a supply contract which in 1994 reduced nearly 80 windpower projects down to 12 which received Scottish Renewables Order contracts. They also need planning permission. Most get a contract first, since investors are much more likely to stump up the L 10m-L 20m capital needed if they have a guaranteed 15-year SRO contract. It is at this stage where life gets really difficult. In England and Wales, 77% of wind farm bids are being rejected at public inquiries because of vociferous opposition campaigns. WIND CANNOT BE USED BY UTILITIES BECAUSE OF COST AND REMOTE LOCATION OF WIND FARMS American News Service, THE ORLANDO SENTINEL, February 16, 1997; Pg. A17, TITLE: STRIKING A BLOW FOR WIND ENERGY // VT98-acs But most investor-owned utility companies do not see their future in the wind. The higher cost of wind energy – caused partly by the need to move energy from often-remote wind farms to the population – has limited the growth of this energy source. A 3 1/2 YEAR STUDY IS NEEDED BEFORE WIND POWER SITES CAN BE SELECTED TONI HEINZL, WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER, Omaha World Herald, October 23, 1996; Pg. 1, TITLE: Harnessing the Wind Requires Tests First Experts Study Viability as Energy Source // VT98-acs He [David Stooksbury, a regional climatologist at the High Plains Climate Center] said the 3 1/2-year time frame was chosen so a more accurate indication of Nebraska wind patterns could be obtained. “Wind is variable, like temperatures and precipitation. You want to get an understanding of the true variability of the wind,” he said. “Monitoring only a very windy year would give you overly optimistic results.” SLIGHT VARIATION IN WIND SPEEDS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN WIND COST COMPETITIVENESS TONI HEINZL, WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER, Omaha World Herald, October 23, 1996; Pg. 1, TITLE: Harnessing the Wind Requires Tests First Experts Study Viability as Energy Source // VT98-acs David Stooksbury, a regional climatologist at the High Plains Climate Center, said y important to have accurate data on wind speeds, frequency, direction and wind turbulence before planning a wind farm with a battery of turbines. “We all know it’s windy in Nebraska,” Stooksbury said, “but it’s important to know how windy it is: If you increase the wind by only 10 percent, you get a 30 percent increase in power. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-WIND WIND POWER SIGNIFICANTLY SCARS THE ENVIRONMENT WIND POWER CAN ONLY BE SIGNIFICANT IF WE SACRIFICE VAST PORTIONS OF THE LANDSCAPE Bernard Ingham, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS And fourth, environmental damage. Wind power is capable of providing large amounts of electricity only if vast areas of our glorious hills and mountains are colonised by forests of turbines each higher than Nelson’s Column. I care too much for our countryside to have it sacrificed on the altar of sado-environmentalism. So should you. WINDMILLS POLLUTE THE FINITE SPIRITUAL VALUE OF THE LANDSCAPE Severin Carrell, Environment Correspondent, Scotland on Sunday, October 6, 1996, Sunday: Pg. 11, TITLE: Wind power struggle // VT98-acs Wind farms, such critics insist, are industrial developments which can severely damage the aesthetic quality of the landscape. Elizabeth Garland, head of APRS, said: “We’re not only talking about the beauty of the landscape, we talking about the spiritual value of the landscape for people who want to wander the hills. They find it a source of refreshment. It’s difficult because it’s a perception of landscape, as well as an experience of it. We have to regard landscape as finite as well.” WINDMILLS ARE SERIOUS BLOTS ON THE LANDSCAPE Hamish Macdonell, Parliamentary Staff, PA News, Press Association Newsfile, October 30, 1996, TITLE: CURB URGED OVER WINDFARM ‘BLOT’ ON COUNTRYSIDE // VT98-acs Former Scottish minister Sir Hector Monro (Dumfries) argued during a short debate that stricter planning controls should be established to control the spread of telecommunications towers and windfarms in Scotland. “My case today is my concern with the number of telecommunications towers everywhere in the countryside and the ever increasing number of windfarms. Both are serious blots on the countryside and the landscape and I believe we need stricter controls.” NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-WIND WIND FACILITY BLADES CRACK AND FLY OFF AT HIGH SPEED LARGER TURBINES RISK AEROELASTIC INSTABILITIES, AND THE BLADES FLY OFF William Chisholm, The Scotsman, September 23, 1996, Pg. 7, TITLE: Wind-farm objectors claim blades liable to fail // VT98-acs An Aerpac spokesman told the magazine Windpower Monthly that the problems were caused by “aeroelastic instabilities”, another term for unidentified vibrations. These can occur on large turbines when the blades change speed or turn out of strong winds. “This is a new problem that comes while turbines are getting larger,” the Aerpac spokesman said. “It is a problem for the whole wind industry that has to be solved.” STUDY FINDS TEN SETS OF WIND TURBINE BLADES WHICH CRACK IN STRONG WINDS William Chisholm, The Scotsman, September 23, 1996, Pg. 7, TITLE: Wind-farm objectors claim blades liable to fail // VT98-acs The report on the group’s investigation quotes newspaper coverage of incidents in Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and the UK, as well as texts of articles from specialist journals. The literature includes reports of examinations which found ten sets of turbine blades had apparently cracked after a spell of unusually strong winds. The so-called failures apply to three wind turbine manufacturers, including Micon, whose blade suppliers are Aerpac, a Dutch company. WIND TURBINES CAN THROW THEIR BLADES HUGE DISTANCES William Chisholm, The Scotsman, September 23, 1996, Pg. 7, TITLE: Wind-farm objectors claim blades liable to fail // VT98-acs Brian Moffat, the joint chairman of the campaign, said: “We are extremely concerned at RES’s omission in pointing out a history of technical failure in the Micon model of the turbine that is proposed for Soutra; the range over which large, heavy blade fragments may be thrown; and how incompatible this is with the A68 road.” WIND FARMS RISK THE DETACHED BLADE SYNDROME — EUROPEAN EXAMPLES William Chisholm, The Scotsman, September 23, 1996, Pg. 7, TITLE: Wind-farm objectors claim blades liable to fail // VT98-acs Protesters claim an investigation they have undertaken has uncovered a series of disturbing incidents across Europe, in which parts of turbine blades have travelled up to 400 metres after being ripped off in storms. In some cases the failures occurred in equipment supplied by a manufacturer which could provide the turbines for the Soutra project. WIND TURBINES COULD CRACK AND COME FLYING OFF, ENDANGERING THE PUBLIC William Chisholm, The Scotsman, October 9, 1996, TITLE: Campaign to block wind farm // VT98-acs Objectors [SCOTLAND COMMUNITY ASSOCIATION] also say the protracted snow-lie would hinder access to the site while severe frosts would increase the chances of metal failure of the turbines. It has already been claimed large pieces of turbine could shear off and fly considerable distances, posing a serious danger to the public. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-WIND WIND ENERGY FACILITIES THREATEN SPECIES DESTRUCTION WIND TURBINES CAN BREAK OFF AND KILL SPECIES Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Spinning wind turbines occasionally kill soaring raptors, which, like wind energy developers, prize the gusts blowing through mountain passes. In addition, the manufacture, construction and operation of renewable energy technologies can raise occupational risks for workers and public health risks for others in the region of deployment. WIND FARMS THREATEN NESTING AND MIGRATORY BIRDS — COLORADO EXAMPLE Utility Environment Report, February 14, 1997; Pg. 11, TITLE: PUC APPROVES PS COLORADO GREEN PRICING PLAN // VT98-acs PS Colorado has kept its northeastern Colorado wind farm site a closely guarded secret to avoid land speculators. The utility said it has selected several sites, tested them and then turned away because of environmental impacts, mainly due to nesting and migratory bird patterns. WIND TURBINES CAN KILL ENNDANGERED EAGLES — WYOMING EXAMPLE Utility Environment Report, February 14, 1997; Pg. 11, TITLE: PUC APPROVES PS COLORADO GREEN PRICING PLAN // VT98-acs Previously, PS Colorado spent some $ 900,000 to buy a portion of a privately developed wind project in southern Wyoming but dropped out because of the potential for turbine blades to kill nearby eagles. WIND AND GEOTHERMAL PROJECTS CAN THREATEN SPECIES Utility Environment Report, December 20, 1996; Pg. 12, TITLE: PGE CEO STRESSES DIFFICULTIES OF FINDING RENEWABLES PROJECTS THAT ARE ECONOMIC // VT98-acs Environmental concerns slowed PGE’s progress in signing renewables contracts after the company issued a request for proposals for 50 MW of renewable energy, Harrison said. For example, environmentalists worried about the effects of wind projects on migratory birds and the impacts of Anadarko Petroleum’s proposed 22-MW Pueblo Valley geothermal project on endangered species. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-WIND LOCAL CITIZENS HATE WIND INSTALLATIONS AND THEY SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSED ON THEM NORMAL PEOPLE ORGANIZE EFFECTIVELY TO STOP WIND POWER INSTALLATIONS — UK EXAMPLE Paul Brown, Environment Correspondent, The Guardian, September 24, 1996; Pg. 7, TITLE: INGHAM PROTEST BLOWS OUT NATIONAL WIND FARM PLAN // VT98-acs Sir Bernard, vice-president of Country Guardian “I am delighted we have upset them, it just goes to show how effective we are. There are no sinister backers, it is just a bunch of highly motiviated individuals who are trying to stop useless forests of these things. Environmental campaigners that support these things are clearly aesthetically dead. They produce so little electricity that they hardly make any difference to the problem.” LOCAL OPPOSITION STOPPED 77% OF UK WIND PROJECTS Paul Brown, Environment Correspondent, The Guardian, September 24, 1996; Pg. 7, TITLE: INGHAM PROTEST BLOWS OUT NATIONAL WIND FARM PLAN // VT98-acs Launching a campaign to get 10 per cent of Britain’s energy from wind by 2025, the association said that the highly organised Country Guardian group was successful in stopping 77 per cent of planning applications for wind farms by letter-writing campaigns to councillors. Environmental campaigner Jonathan Porritt said: “Much of what they say is ill -informed, narrow-minded emotional rubbish, but one cannot deny it has been very effective.” WINDMILLS SHOULD NOT BE INTRODUCED OVER LOCAL OPPOSITION Hamish Macdonell, Parliamentary Staff, PA News, Press Association Newsfile, October 30, 1996, TITLE: CURB URGED OVER WINDFARM ‘BLOT’ ON COUNTRYSIDE // VT98-acs For Liberal Democrats, Mrs Ray Michie said many people felt windfarms were of no benefit to the local population. “Although they may produce much needed income for a hard pressed farmer, they are deeply resented when erected on the estates of absentee landlords. “If they were being put in place to supply electricity to a local village at reduced cost, then folk could see some point to them. But of course that’s not the case.” She urged the Government to “consider carefully the consequences when a planning decisio is taken in favour of a windfarm in open defiance of local opinion”. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-SOLAR SOLAR ENERGY CANNOT BECOME A MAJOR ENERGY SOURCE IT IS UNREALISTIC TO ASSUME THAT RENEWABLE ENERGY LIKE SOLAR CAN BECOME MAJOR ENERGY SHARES Heinrich von Pierer, chairman of Siemens AG, Power Engineering, October, 1996; Pg. 58; TITLE: Efficiency improvements are critical for a bright tomorrow // VT98-acs In the foreseeable future, perhaps the next 20 to 25 years, it is unrealistic to expect completely new technologies to take over a large share of the world’s power production. And it is just as unrealistic to assume that solar energy will replace conventional energy sources. Although solar energy will certainly be used in new applications and possibly have a larger share of the total power output, its mere 0.1 percent of the global total at present makes it quite clear that it will not play more than a marginal role. NO LARGE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES EXIST FOR SOLAR ENERGY Oliver Morgan, MAIL ON SUNDAY, February 09, 1997: Pg. 8, TITLE: New dawn beckons if the world turns to the sun // VT98-acs Caroline Burton, executive director of investment at Guardian Royal Exchange, who attended the OSIS conference says: ‘There may be a lot of potential long term, but there are not really opportunities large enough for portfolio investment. The future depends on how well solar is marketed.’ SOLAR POWER CANNOT THRIVE UNLESS THE POWER OF FOSSIL FUELS AND VESTED INTERESTS ARE BROKEN John J. Monahan, SUNDAY TELEGRAM, February 2, 1997; Pg. B5; TITLE: America should spiral out of shadow and use sun’s power // VT98-acs [John T. O'Connor, president of Greenworks Inc., and co-author] In the end, they contend, solar power will only emerge with all its liberating benefits if people stand up to big oil, utilities, the banks and politicians that they say have thwarted solar so far. They also say part of the blame for the sabotaging of solar initiatives since 1980 is shared by environmental groups, “endowment-obsessed philanthropic foundations” and timid journalists, who they say have turned public policy against solar power. ALLOWING UTILITIES AND CURRENT ENERGY CORPORATIONS TO IMPLEMENT SOLAR ENERGY MEANS A HUNDRED YEARS OF DELAYS John J. Monahan, SUNDAY TELEGRAM, February 2, 1997; Pg. B5; TITLE: America should spiral out of shadow and use sun’s power // VT98-acs [John T. O'Connor, president of Greenworks Inc., and co-author] “To turn the tools of solar transition over to utilities and fossil fuel corporations, which is the present policy of the government and mainstream environmental organizations, is to guarantee that the coming of the solar age will arrive a century behind its time,” O’Connor and Berman predict. TOTAL USA SOLAR ENERGY PRODUCTION IS CURRENTLY MINISCULE Gary Lee, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post, September 25, 1996, Pg. A03, TITLE: Government Researchers Fear Budget Cuts Will Cool Solar Energy Work // VT98-acs Such comparatively high costs have kept the solar industry relatively small. Total U.S. solar production last year was just 35 megawatts, only enough to provide power to a community the size of Silver Spring, Md. Worldwide production was just over twice that amount. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-SOLAR SOLAR ENERGY IS NOT COST COMPETITIVE — IT IS TOO EXPENSIVE SOLAR POWER COSTS 4 TIMES MORE THAN CURRENT ENERGY SOURCES Gary Lee, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post, September 25, 1996, Pg. A03, TITLE: Government Researchers Fear Budget Cuts Will Cool Solar Energy Work // VT98-acs Solar power is still at least four times as expensive as alternative energy sources. A modern solar-powered generator costs about 20 cents per kilowatt-hour to run, compared with 4 cents per kilowatt-hour for a natural-gas-fired plant, and 6 to 8 cents per kilowatt-hour for a wind-powered facility, according to Energy Department figures. SOLAR ENERGY COSTS ARE DECLINING, BUT IT IS STILL TOO EXPENSIVE FOR LARGE SCALE USE IN THE USA Gary Lee, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post, September 25, 1996, Pg. A03, TITLE: Government Researchers Fear Budget Cuts Will Cool Solar Energy Work // VT98-acs Although the cost of producing electricity from solar energy is declining, it is still more expensive than using natural gas, coal or other conventional means, and thus is not considered economical enough for large-scale use in the United States. SOLAR IS HARD TO MARKET IN INDUSTRIALIZED NATIONS BECAUSE OF COST Oliver Morgan, MAIL ON SUNDAY, February 09, 1997: Pg. 8, TITLE: New dawn beckons if the world turns to the sun // VT98-acs In the developed world the market is different. PV companies have to sell to environmentally conscious individuals willing to spend up to $15,000 on a rooftop system, look to wealthy corporations to clad the walls of their skyscrapers with $800 a metre panels, compared to $350 for glass or $500 for stone, or persuade generators that solar stations are the key to the future. BENEFITS OF SUN AND WIND RENEWABLE ENERGY OVER ESTIMATED BY 79% IN DEPT. OF ENEREGY DATA CHRIS WOODYARD, The Houston Chronicle, November 30, 1996, Pg. 1, TITLE: Alternative energy not paying off; Study says DOE projections high // VT98-acs Harnessing alternative energy sources such as the sun and the wind won’t be as lucrative as the Energy Department predicted, according to a study. Energy Department managers overestimated by 79 percent the potential energy savings from renewable sources and advanced technologies in the year 2000 alone, indicates an analysis of the governmentcommissioned study by the consulting firm Arthur D. Little. SOLAR ENERGY ADVOCATES ADMIT THAT THEY ARE NOT COST COMPETITIVE Elizabeth Bryant, States News Service, The Denver Post, February 25, 1997 ; Pg. C-02, TITLE: ‘Green’ energy fans optimistic Will consumers pay more for electricity from renewable sources? // VT98-acs “We’re just not cost-competitive,” said Mark McCray, managing director of RMS Electric Inc., a Boulder-based solar energy company. Both solar and wind energy cost several cents more per kilowatt hour than Colorado’s coal-generated power. Photovoltaic panels are even pricier. SOLAR IS 6 TIMES MORE EXPENSIVE, AND WON’T BE COST COMPETITIVE WITH BASE LOAD POWER UNTIL 2020 Oliver Morgan, MAIL ON SUNDAY, February 09, 1997: Pg. 8, TITLE: New dawn beckons if the world turns to the sun // VT98-acs John Harford of BP Solar says: ‘Since 1980 the cost of solar power has dropped some seven times in cash terms. In 1980 it was about $18.75 a watt, and now it is some $2.80 a watt. It needs to come down about another six times, but I believe by 2020 we should be in a position to compete with base load power.’ NEGATIVE-SOLVENCY SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY TECHNOLOGY IS NOT COST COMPETITIVE – IT COSTS TOO MUCH PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS ARE 3 TO 4 TIMES MORE EXPENSIVE THAN MAINSTREAM POWER Gail Robinson, Electronic Engineering Times, April 21, 1997, TITLE: Triple-cell structure ups solar efficiency — Union Solar researchers pursue consumer-friendly solar-energy systems // VT98-acs While the advantages of solar energy have been documented, the economics of solar energy for most consumers are still not competitive with traditional sources. Today’s prevalent market technology ranges between $3 and $4 per watt. To compete with utility costs, solar energy would have to cost below $1 per watt. United Solar has recently completed the construction and optimization of a 5-MW/year-capacity manufacturing facility for producing photovoltaic solar cells. “This may sound like a large number, but from the perspective of utility companies, it represents a small figure,” said Yang. ” To go below $1 per watt, you would need a factory with capabilities 20 times larger than the current capacity.” PHOTOVOLTAIC ELECTRICITY WILL COST 4 TIMES AS MUCH AS NORMAL Susan Klann, contributing editor of Oil and Gas Investor, The Denver Post, October 21, 1996; Pg. E-02, TITLE: Photovoltaic remains costly energy game // VT98-acs Schuyler [Terry Schuyler of the Photovoltaic Services Network] notes that the cost for grid customers who want to use photovoltaic technology is still too high. “A system to offset electricity needs might cost $ 100 a month but provide only $ 25 per month of your power needs. Where it’s cost-effective is in rural areas.” HIGH COSTS AND COMING UTILITY DEREGULATION DOOM PHOTOVOLTAIC USE Susan Klann, contributing editor of Oil and Gas Investor, The Denver Post, October 21, 1996; Pg. E-02, TITLE: Photovoltaic remains costly energy game // VT98-acs Most of us don’t know much about photovoltaic technology – the generation of electricity from the sun – and its potential. This renewable energy source hasn’t become more widespread because of its higher cost when compared with relatively low-cost fossil fuels. Nor has its development been advanced by the rumblings of electric industry restructuring, which have refocused utilities’ attention ever more closely on the bottom line. DEPT. OF ENERGY OVERESTIMATES PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY PERFORMANCE THE ELECTRICITY DAILY, October 31, 1996, TITLE: Reviewer Hits DOE Renewables // VT98acs Photovoltaic technology forecasts should also be scaled back, says ADL, recommending that the QM figure of .03 quads for 2005 be set at .01 quads, and the .39 quad DOE projection for 2020 be reduced to .27 quads. The QM projections, says the ADL report, “do not reflect current trends in U.S. demand growth” and “are too high.” ADL says DOE also should develop a way to assess the market for off- grid PVs separate from integrated systems, because the current method understates off-grid applications. SOLAR POWER CELLS DETERIORATE AT A RATE OF 1% A YEAR JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 54 Their main operational flaw is that solar cells often show a slight decrease in power output over time (on the order of 1 percent per year), possibly from a browning of their transparent plastic encapsulant. DEPT. OF ENERGY HAS OVERESTIMATED THE POTENTIAL OF SOLAR THERMAL TECHNOLOGY THE ELECTRICITY DAILY, October 31, 1996, TITLE: Reviewer Hits DOE Renewables // VT98acs The ADL review also found major problems with the DOE estimate for the contribution of solar thermal technology. The QM analysis projected a .12 quads contribution from solar thermal, but Little says the number should be .02 quads. For 2020, Little suggests a figure of .11 quads, versus the DOE projection of .45 quads. Most of the solar thermal technologies, says the ADL analysis, are “technologies in advanced stages of development, but without any deployment on a commercial level. Several of them, including dish/Sterling engines and power towers, do not have more than a year of operating experience.” NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-BIOMASS BIOMASS ENERGY SYSTEM CANNOT BE EFFECTIVELY IMPLEMENTED BIOMASS ENERGY IS BLOCKED BY HIGH COSTS FOR DEDICATED FACILITIES, LOW COSTS FOR FOSSIL FUELS, AND A LACK OF MARKET NETWORKS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 193 Today this agro-industrial complex is still mostly fantasy, mainly because of the high costs of growing fuel on dedicate`] energy plantations, the low cost of competing fossil fuels, and because market networks would need to evolve for absorbing the fuels and co-product. VERY LITTLE NEW BIOMASS ENERGY WILL COME ON LINE BETWEEN NOW AND 2000 JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 194 Although the biomass industry has made great strides since the 1970s, doubling its contribution to U.S. primary energy supplies, it began losing momentum in the early 1990s, and little new biomass power plant development is expected at least until 2000 waste- or residue-fueled BIOMASS FUELS WILL NEVER REPLACE IMPORTED OIL Robert Greene, Austin American-Statesman, October 13, 1996; Pg. K3, TITLE: More bucks sought for biofuels research; Advocates say fuel from farmlands could fill good chunk of U.S. gasoline needs // VT98-acs Ethanol from hay, brewery grains and rice straw could one day power more cars, buses and generators, as researchers and entrepreneurs seek ways to harvest fuel from U.S. farmland. No one expects plant-based fuels to wean the United States from imported oil, which caused $47 billion to be shipped abroad last year. BIOMASS PROJECTS MUST REMAIN SMALL TO SUCCEED International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 15, 1996, TITLE: ISEIR Focus: Biomass Energy: Small Projects, Management Are Vital To Attracting Investors for Biomass // VT98-acs Biomass projects looking for investors also would do well to scale projects small. A project requiring $100 million worth of investments will only be able to find financing through a government program. It is imperative that projects find an interim, break-even point where development can happen, Truslow told the conference. [Fredric Truslow, Rappahannock Investment Corp.] BIOMASS FUEL CANNOT COMPETE BECAUSE OF FEEDSTOCK COLLECTION COSTS CHRIS KRAUL, TIMES STAFF WRITER, Los Angeles Times, November 6, 1996, Part D; Page 2; TITLE: HEARD ON THE BEAT / ENERGY; CALIFORNIA; A Surge of Cash; Alternative Energy Firms Are Getting $540 Million to Help Them Better Compete // VT98-acs The problem is the cost of collecting biomass fuel–wood chips produced from forest, lumber and agricultural waste. No matter how efficient the operation, the cost of chippers, manpower and trucks to collect the fuel is too high for biomass to be competitive. EVEN CASH SUBSIDIES CAN’T MAKE BIOMASS ENERGY COST EFFECTIVE CHRIS KRAUL, TIMES STAFF WRITER, Los Angeles Times, November 6, 1996, Part D; Page 2; TITLE: HEARD ON THE BEAT / ENERGY; CALIFORNIA; A Surge of Cash; Alternative Energy Firms Are Getting $540 Million to Help Them Better Compete // VT98-acs Although a short-term cash fix may make the most efficient renewables, such as wind and geothermal energy, financially viable, industry officials admit it will take more to save biomass, the least competitive of the major renewable energy sources but perhaps the most beneficial from an environmental standpoint. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-BIOMASS BIOMASS ENERGY SYSTEM CANNOT BE EFFECTIVELY IMPLEMENTED [p. 2] BIOMASS PRODUCERS CANNOT COMPETE WITH NATURAL GAS PRICES International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 15, 1996, TITLE: ISEIR Focus: Biomass Energy: Small Projects, Management Are Vital To Attracting Investors for Biomass // VT98-acs Biomass producers must keep their costs competitive with fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and petroleum, Truslow [Fredric Truslow, Rappahannock Investment Corp.] said. In recent years, natural gas has become much less expensive. Renewable are having a tough time competing with fossil fuels, he noted. BIOMASS ENERGY CANNOT BE ECONOMICALLY SUCCESSFUL — HAWAII STUDY International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, October 21, 1996, TITLE: Biomass: Studies Show Economic Compatibility, Local Benefits of Renewable Projects // VT98-acs A Hawaiian study looking into biomass from sugar cane determined such a venture, configured around the existing assets of participant Pioneer Mill, will not likely offer a favorable return on investment, the report said. The project participants expect the facility to rake in an annual after-tax net profit of $15.4 million. The business shows an internal rate of return of 30 percent and a return on the $36 million investment of 11 percent for the 15-year life of the plant, the paper said. BIOMASS FUELS HAVE A LOW HEATING INDEX, WHICH MAKES TRANSPORTATION A PROBLEM JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 201 Also, biomass generally is high in moisture when harvested, lowering its energy density (the energy content per unit mass). That increases transportation costs, a significant “factor of production,” since biomass tends to be dispersed over large geographic areas, and energy must be expended for its collection. Finally, even dry biomass does not have as high a heating value as the fossil fuel with which it has to compete. Dried woody, material, for example, has only about half the energy of bituminous coal. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-BIOMASS BIOMASS PLANTATIONS ARE NOT EFFECTIVE ENERGY SOURCES BIOMASS PLANTATIONS MAY RISK SPECIES DIVERSITY AND SOIL DEPLETION Kenneth E Skog, Forest Products Journal, February 1997, Pg. 63-69; TITLE: United States wood biomass for energy and chemicals // VT98-ACS Technology needs include improvement of short-rotation intensive culture techniques for plantations and improvement of electrical power and ethanol production processes. These efforts can help improve the comparative advantage of wood biomass feedstocks relative to fossil fuel feedstocks. Key environmental concerns will constrain the supply of wood biomass from forests and plantations; particularly concern for the effects of management for wood fuel on the diversity of plants and animals and on the depletion of soil and water resources. 40 MILLION ACRES OF ENERGY CROPS WOULD ONLY SUPPLY 17% OF USA GASOLINE USE Robert Greene, Austin American-Statesman, October 13, 1996; Pg. K3, TITLE: More bucks sought for biofuels research; Advocates say fuel from farmlands could fill good chunk of U.S. gasoline needs // VT98-acs By planting 40 million acres — about 10 percent of the nation’s cropland — in energy crops, the country could produce 20 billion gallons of ethanol a year. That would supply 17 percent of U.S. gasoline use. BIOMASS CROPS WOULD CAUSE A FOOD SHORTAGE ROBERT GREENE, The Associated Press, The Record, October 6, 1996; Pg. A13, TITLE: AGRICULTURAL CROPS SEEN AS FUEL FOR THE FUTURE // VT98-acs There are doubters. Philip Verleger, vice president of Charles River Associates, an economic consulting firm, questioned whether the United States can take 10 percent of its farmland out of food production when the world population is growing. In fact, grain shortages this summer forced ethanol producers to cut way back. LAND EXISTS FOR BIOMASS PLANTATIONS, BUT IT WOULD COME AT THE EXPENSE OF FOOD PRODUCTION AND MIGHT INCREASE DEFORESTATION JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 199 Neither is land scarce on a global scale for biomass production today. Well over a billion acres of tropical land is suitable for reforestation. But many questions remain as to whether this would be the best use of the land, or whether it could be better used to produce higher value goods, such as food and fiber, or for multi species wildlife habitat. If tropical energy plantations became profitable, intensified commercial demand for land conceivably could threaten subsistence farmers, or create additional incentives for tropical deforestation. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-BIOMASS BIOMASS LIQUID AND GAS FUELS ARE INEFFECTIVE ENERGY SOURCES BIOMASS LIQUID FUELS COST SUBSTANTIALLY MORE THAN GASOLINE OR DIESEL FUEL JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 205 The costs of these two alcohols from biomass currently are significantly higher than gasoline or diesel fuel on an energy-equivalent basis. Ethanol has about two-thirds the energy content per gallon as gasoline, whereas methanol has half the energy. DEPT. OF ENERGY OVESTIMATES POTENTIAL OF BIOFUELS BY 95% BECAUSE OF DECLINING DEMAND CHRIS WOODYARD, The Houston Chronicle, November 30, 1996, Pg. 1, TITLE: Alternative energy not paying off; Study says DOE projections high // VT98-acs Similarly, the [A. D. Little] study reduced the forecast for energy savings from biofuels by 95 percent because demand is likely to decline. ETHANOL FUELS CAN’T EXPAND BECAUSE OF IMPROPER FUEL TANKS, NO REFUELING STATIONS, AND HIGH COST AT THE PUMP Government Executive, December 1996; Page 9, TITLE: TURNING CORN INTO FUEL // VT98acs While the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments mandate that RFG be used in the 10 U.S. metropolitan areas with the most severe ozone pollution, two main obstacles stand in the way of increased consumer demand for ethanol. First, while RFG with an ethanol content of 10 percent (E10) can be safely used to fuel any car that runs on unleaded gasoline, fuel with an ethanol content of 85 percent (E85) is best reserved for flexible fuel vehicles, which have coated fuel tanks that will not be corroded by high percentages of ethanol. Currently, there are only about 5,000 flexible fuel vehicles in use in the United States. Second, there are only 40 public ethanol refueling stations nationwide. Third, ethanol and ethanol blend fuels are more expensive than petroleum. ETHANOL REMAINS TWICE AS EXPENSIVE AS GASOLINE Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Commercial Appeal (Memphis), September 22, 1996, SECTION: VIEWPOINT, Pg. 4B, TITLE: Oil habit keeps United States entangled with Iraq // VT98-acs Meanwhile, federally supported research has cut the cost of ethanol production from $ 3.60 to roughly $ 1 per gallon in the last 15 years. Although ethanol remains twice as expensive as conventionally priced gasoline in terms of energy efficiency, further cost reductions are conceivable within a decade, according to Joseph Romm and Charles Curtis of the Energy Department. BIOGAS NEEDS TO BE USED ON-SITE BECAUSE OF TRANSPORTATION COSTS Joseph Edwin, New Straits Times, January 21, 1997; Pg. 5, TITLE: Generating electricity from trash // VT98-acs Biogas is gas produced from the fermentation of animal and vegetable residues. Many view this as a fuel with great relevance for rural areas in developing countries. Other energy forms can have very high transport and transmission costs which make their supply to such areas prohibitive, especially in low- income areas. Biogas can be produced in-situ (on site) by using locally available feedstock (raw material including animal and farm waste required for a biological process) in a biogas digester. BIOGAS HAS NOT BEEN ADOPTED BECAUSE IT REQUIRES EXPENSIVE NEW DIGESTERS AND CHANGES IN APPLIANCES Joseph Edwin, New Straits Times, January 21, 1997; Pg. 5, TITLE: Generating electricity from trash // VT98-acs However, these digesters, which are concrete tanks, can also be expensive to build given the poverty levels in some rural areas. There is also the problem of purchasing a gas- utilising appliance. As a result of these factors, the initial enthusiasm that greeted the development of biogas on an organised scale has been somewhat muted. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-BIOMASS DISPOSAL AND SEPARATION PROBLEMS PLAGUE BIOMASS OPERATIONS ENERGY GENERATION FROM MUNICIPAL WASTE FAILS BECAUSE OF COLLECTION AND SEPARATION ISSUES Joseph Edwin, New Straits Times, January 21, 1997; Pg. 5, TITLE: Generating electricity from trash // VT98-acs There is tremendous potential for power generation from municipal waste but its promise has been overlooked, largely due to public apathy and a poor system of garbage collection. Incentives to encourage garbage separation and delivery coupled with the need for public education on recycling garbage are lacking, although the technology to generate electricity from municipal waste is available, says Prof Mohamad Yusof Othman, a leading researcher on renewable energy sources. BIOMASS PLANTS PRODUCE DANGEROUS SLAG IN THE EQUIPMENT USED JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 201 Biomass fuels are far from perfect. Some cause the formation of slag and other deposits in combustion boilers that can interfere with the boiler’s operation and cause troublesome shutdowns. Fast-growing plants, such as annual grasses, which are high in alkali metals (potassium and sodium) and silica, are the most likely to cause slagging. NEGATIVE-SOLVENCY-FUSION FUSION ENERGY IS A DANGEROUS AND IMPRACTICAL POLICY OPTION FUSION ENERGY RANKS 22ND OUT OF 23 POTENTIAL NEW ENERGY SOURCES — IT IS A LOSER Anna Aurilio Staff Scientist U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee Scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories have reported that “… there is a growing realization that our present, conventional approaches will not lead to attractive commercial reactor products able to compete in the energy marketplace of the 21st century..” Dr. Robert Hirsch of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) testified that the “best DT deuterium-tritium tokamak designs appear to be less attractive than the Advanced Light Water fission reactor..”. Finally, a 1991 Department of Energy internal policy study of 23 future energy supplies ranked fusion 22nd on the basis of feasibility, market and technical risk, and environmental and cost issues. EVEN FUSION PROPONENTS SAY IT WON’T BE READY UNTIL AFTER 2030 JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 18 Even fusion’s greatest proponents do not expect commercial fusion reactors to be available until at least 2030. Meanwhile fusion will probably require billions more in public funds just to try and reach the market readiness by 2030 that various renewable technologies have already attained by 1996. FUSION REACTORS WILL BE LESS ECONOMICAL THAN CURRENT NUCLEAR REACTORS Anna Aurilio Staff Scientist U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee While tokamak technology may be somewhat less hazardous than fission reactor wastes, the price tag for tokamaks may be lethal. By many estimates, tokamak fusion energy will be more expensive than nuclear fission, which has already failed the marketplace test! A recent study by researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratories states that tokamak reactors “would not be competitive with respect to present projections for Advanced Light Water (fission) Reactors. ” WE HAVE WASTED $9 BILLION ON FUSION RESEARCH AND HAVE NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IT Anna Aurilio Staff Scientist U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee Enormous scientific and engineering problems associated with achieving and sustaining the conditions necessary for fusion energy are far from being solved. Over the last 40 years, U.S. taxpayers have paid more than $9 billion for research on fusion energy, yet none of the research efforts has achieved “break- even”, the point at which the fusion reaction generates the same amount of energy as is put in. Of course, to produce commercial power, a fusion reactor has to generate more energy than is put in, and there is no guarantee that this will happen in our lifetimes. Yet in these tight budget times, DOE is planning to begin design and construction work on a new fusion reactor here in the U.S., and continue funding two existing reactors, none of which will generate clean, affordable energy. FUSION WON’T BE READY UNTIL AFTER 2096 Frank Bevc; Samuel Harkness, Power Engineering, October, 1996; Pg. 47; TITLE: Darwinism determines technological survivors; Special Centennial Issue; The Next Century of Power Generation: A Look Ahead // VT98-acs Clean, low-cost energy, available when and where needed, will always be the holy grail of power industry scientists and engineers. Something like the “Mr. Fusion” power source in Professor Brown’s DeLorean time machine in the “Back to the Future” movie series may be available to meet the world’s energy needs in 2096. If so, its entry into broad use will be evolutionary and very much predictable in the context of a 25-year time horizon. CURRENT FUSION TECHNIQUES GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE Anna Aurilio Staff Scientist U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee While it may be possible to generate fusion energy in an environmentally benign manner, DOE’s current civilian fusion energy program focuses on a technology, known as “tokamak” which will generate large quantities of radioactive waste DOE’s defense-related fusion program raises proliferation concerns and may not be suitable for civilian energy production. NEGATIVE-SOLVENCY-GEOTHERMAL GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IS NOT A GOOD ENERGY SOURCE HUGE SOURCES OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY MAY BE AVAILABLE, BUT NOT UNTIL 2015 JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 235 Whereas can ultimately hope to exploit only a small fraction of the worlds incomprehensibly vast geothermal resources in an economical way the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Laboratory has nonetheless very optimistically estimated that as much as 1.9 million megawatts of geothermal electricity could be available from hot dry rock at competitive prices by the year 2015 assuming expected advances over current technology. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY SOURCES ARE NOT AVAILABLE BECAUSE OF TECHNOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 234 Globally, geothermal energy exists In vast quantities including many locations throughout the United States especially in the West and abroad. However, only a small part of the resource base can be developed economically because of current technological limitations. If one day the limitations are overcome America would have an energy supply far beyond its needs. TOTAL AVAILABLE GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IS HARD TO QUANTIFY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 234-235 Although known to be extremely large the magnitude of the geothermal resource base is not well quantified.’ By one estimate geothermal resources exceed the worlds entire coal oil and natural gas resources by 30 times . Another estimate found the heat content of the Earth’s crust (above-surface temperatures) is hundreds of thousands of times U S annual energy demand. CALCULATIONS OF ENERGY SAVINGS THROUGH THE USE OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IS GREATLY OVERESTIMATED THE ELECTRICITY DAILY, October 31, 1996, TITLE: Reviewer Hits DOE Renewables // VT98acs According to the analysis, DOE’s late 1995 QM calculations for the energy savings from geothermal energy are badly out of whack. ADL’s analysis reduced geothermal electric capacity additions in the near term from 496 MW to 255 MW “to reflect recent project cancellations and increased uncertainty regarding announced plans by geothermal developers.” The consultants also took 500 MW out of mid- term geothermal capacity because the Geysers field in northern California “is no longer economical given current market conditions.” ADL also knocked out 3,500 MW in projected hot dry rock capacity by 2020 because of “the speculative nature of the estimates and uncertain R&D budgets for the future.” GEOTHERMAL HAS POSED DANGERS TO PROTECTED SPECIES Utility Environment Report, December 20, 1996; Pg. 12, TITLE: PGE CEO STRESSES DIFFICULTIES OF FINDING RENEWABLES PROJECTS THAT ARE ECONOMIC // VT98-acs For example, environmentalists worried about the effects of wind projects on migratory birds and the impacts of Anadarko Petroleum’s proposed 22-MW Pueblo Valley geothermal project on endangered species. While the Anadarko project made the company’s short list, negotiations stalled when the two parties could not reach agreement on power costs. In addition, the Nature Conservancy and other groups opposed the project because of its possible impacts on endangered species. NEGATIVE-SOLVENCY-BREEDERS BREEDER REACTORS ARE NOT RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES -THEY ARE WILDLY INEFFICIENT AND UNRELIABLE PLUTONIUM RECYCLING DOES NOT MAKE SENSE ECONOMICALLY Robert A. Manning, senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, Spring 1997; THE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY, “PACATOM: Nuclear Cooperation in Asia”//VT98-maf Yet, the world is awash with plutonium and uranium, and some scientists have estimated that no economic rationale will exist for the recycling of plutonium for another 75-100 years. For example, under the START I and — if ratified — START II treaties, Russia alone will dismantle more than 2,000 weapons annually until the year 2003; in other words, 10-15 tons of plutonium and 45 tons of enriched uranium will be “throughput” — or made available for civil nuclear use — annually. COMMERCIAL BREEDER REACTORS WILL WASTE MONEY Robert A. Manning, senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, Spring 1997; THE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY, “PACATOM: Nuclear Cooperation in Asia”//VT98-maf The bottom line is that, for the foreseeable future, little economic rationale exists for commercial breeder reactors. The MOX fuel Japan now buys is 3-6 times more expensive than conventional reactor fuel, yet the glut of uranium likely to exist for at least another 50- 75 years could ensure a steady supply of fuel for Japan’s power reactors. Moreover, it is quite possible that breakthroughs in fusion could alter the future of nuclear power or that other commercially viable alternative energy sources will emerge. The mere commercialization of electric automobiles, for example, would dramatically alter energy demand projections. Furthermore, the problems Japan had at Monju, like those the French encountered with their reactors, reflect the technical difficulties in making this complex technology work. Based on current plans, Japan, which already has acquired 1.1 metric tons (Mt) of plutonium from Britain and France, would be saddled with still more if Monju is shut down for three years. Some estimates project that Japan’s plutonium surplus would grow by more than 1.5 Mt over the course of a three-year Monju shutdown. FAST BREEDER REACTORS WASTE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS, DO NOT PRODUCE ANY ELECTRICITY, AND POSE ENVIRONMENTAL AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION RISKS Stephanie Mills, Staff Writer, February 5, 1997; THE EVENING POST (WELLINGTON), “A deadly legacy for our children”//VT98-maf Yet despite decades of research, “fast breeder reactors” remain unproven and have already cost $ 62 billion to develop without producing any electricity. Countries opposing the plutonium trade do so because of the obvious environmental and nuclear proliferation risks. From the start of the process, the technique employed to separate plutonium from used nuclear fuel is an inherently risky and polluting business. Plutonium production also requires routine shipments of used nuclear fuel to be made across the globe and leads to the generation of large quantities of radioactive waste. The industry has tried to greenwash this process by touting it as a form of “recycling” but this is an abuse of the term. Scientists estimate that plutonium reprocessing generates as much as 189 times more radioactive waste than the amount present in the original used reactor fuel which it comes from. FAST BREEDER REACTORS WON’T BE NEEDED FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION FOR AT LEAST 100 YEARS Paul Eavis, international security specialist, 1992; PLUTONIUM AND SECURITY, ”Tile Case Against Reprocessing,” p. 19//VT98-maf Uranium is also used in FBRs. However, there is currently no economic benefit to be gained from using uranium in FBRs, and neither is there likely to be so (even with respect to other forms of nuclear power) until 2020. In the UK, the Department of Energy has recently acknowledged this: ‘there is now general agreement that fast reactors, which depend for their economic advantage on their more efficient use of uranium will not be required for the large-scale commercial generation of electricity until well into the next century’. BREEDER REACTORS SHOULD BE REJECTED BECAUSE THEY ARE TOO COSTLY, TOO UNSAFE, AND DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH ENERGY John P. Holdren, et al, Committee on International Security and Arms Control, 1994; MANAGEMENT AND DISPOSITION OF EXCESS WEAPONS PLUTONIUM p. 183//VT98-maf There are a variety of other existing reactors that might be used to process weapons plutonium. These include, among others, the plutonium production reactors in the United States and Russia, graphite- moderated reactors, gas cooled reactors, and a variety of research reactors. None of these appear to offer any significant advantages compared to the options described above, and most appear to have major disadvantages in the areas of cost, safety, or capacity. The committee does not believe that any of these other existing reactors merits further consideration for the plutonium disposition mission. NEGATIVE-SOLVENCY-BREEDERS DEVELOPING FAST BREEDER REACTORS WILL LEAD TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROLIFERATION AND WAR BREEDER REACTORS PRODUCE LARGE PROPORTIONS OF LOW IRRIDATED PLUTONIUM WHICH IS VERY ATTRACTIVE TO PROLIFERANTS Robert A. Manning, senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, Spring 1997; THE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY, “PACATOM: Nuclear Cooperation in Asia”//VT98-maf “Moreover, spent fuel from certain kinds of reactors may be especially attractive to wouldbe proliferants with access to reprocessing technology, because of the unusually large proportion of highly enriched uraium or plutonium present. Spent naval fuel from nuclearpowered surface ships and submarines, for example, typically will have a large uranium content, while that in fast breeder reactors may contain significant quantities of low irradiated plutonium. ” BREEDER REACTORS WILL LEAD TO NUCLEAR, CHEMICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL WARFARE Avery Russell, Staff Writer, February 23, 1997; SACRAMENTO BEE, “A New Nuclear Nightmare”//VT98-maf Although the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war have greatly reduced the threat of strategic nuclear conflict, this development should not obscure the existence of other very real, and in some instances new, threats involving the spread and use of weapons of mass destruction, Potter believes. The risks include not only the theft, diversion and illicit export of sensitive nuclear material, equipment, technology and information (such as warheads from inadequately safeguarded storage sites) but imprudent statesanctioned trade in nuclear goods and also in critical components of chemical weapons and missile delivery systems (such as gyroscopes that target missiles for both chemical and nuclear warheads). Other risks include acts of nuclear, chemical and biological terrorism. THE IMPLEMENTATION OF COMMERCIAL BREEDER REACTORS WILL LEAD TO A “VIRTUAL” NUCLEAR ARMS RACE Robert A. Manning, senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, Spring 1997; THE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY, “PACATOM: Nuclear Cooperation in Asia”//VT98-maf If such efforts are aimed at developing fuel cycle activities under the control of each individual country, this course is filled with potential dangers. Given regional security concerns discussed above, the question of whether commercial reprocessing should be encouraged merits careful consideration. Such a course of action could lead to a “virtual” nuclear arms race — that is, a competition between countries that have the capability to build nuclear weapons — if, for example, a reunified Korea decides to revisit the question of reprocessing. A UNITED STATES BREEDER REACTOR POLICY WILL BREAK UP THE U.S.-NORTH KOREAN REGIONAL NUCLEAR COOPERATION REGIME Robert A. Manning, senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, Spring 1997; THE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY, “PACATOM: Nuclear Cooperation in Asia”//VT98-maf Framework between the United States and North Korea, illuminated the link between civil nuclear power and nuclear proliferation. The informal pattern of cooperation with North Korea, subtly institutionalized in the Korean Energy Development Organization (KEDO), should be viewed as a security- and confidence-building measure, not merely as a corporate entity created to build two LWRs. This is true regardless of the ultimate fate of the October 1994 Agreed Framework, which may ultimately fail for reasons beyond its scope — Pyongyang’s recalcitrance on broader security issues and the absence of a comprehensive North Korea strategy on the part of the United States and South Korea. A wide spectrum of options exists for regional nuclear cooperation, ranging from modest nuclear safety initiatives to sweeping ideas for joint management of spent fuel and plutonium. An institutional breakthrough of broad scope could significantly enhance regional security, as well as facilitate the safe use of nuclear energy in East Asia. NEGATIVE-SOLVENCY-BREEDERS DEVELOPING FAST BREEDER REACTORS WILL LEAD TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROLIFERATION AND WAR [p. 2] FUEL REPROCESSING IS SYNONYMOUS WITH PYROREPROCESSING WHICH POSES THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION Anna Aurilio, Staff Scientist for the U.S. Public Interest Research Group, April 9, 1997; FDCH CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY//VT98-maf First, DOE’s track record with other reprocessing technologies has been abysmal. According to “Linking Legacies: Connecting the Cold War Nuclear Weapons Production Processes to Their Environmental Consequences” (DOE, 1/97) “One operation accounted for more waste and contamination that other of the other seven steps in the nuclear weapons production process: chemical separations; which involves dissolving spent nuclear fuel rods and targets in acid and separating out the plutonium and uranium using a chemical process. ” Second, despite proponents’ claim to the contrary, pyroprocessing is reprocessing. A recent letter to House Appropriations Committee Chairman Bob Livingston (R-LA) from four scientific experts including MacArthur Prize Fellowship winner Professor Frank Von Hippel, and Professor James Warf, the inventor of several reprocessing technologies, underscores this fact and expresses concern about the nuclear proliferation impacts of pyroprocessing. The letter concludes that”.. because pyroprocessing facilities are more compact than conventional facilities, they are easier to conceal. The world would become a more dangerous place. ” BREEDER REACTORS WILL ALLOW THE UNITED STATES TO RECOVER REACTOR-GRADE PLUTONIUM AND INCREASE THE RISK OF PROLIFERATION John P. Holdren and Mike Moore, Staff Writers, March 13, 1997; EDUCATIONAL FOUNDATION FOR NUCLEAR SCIENCE BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS, “Work with Russia; disposal of weapons-grade plutonium”//VT98-maf Second, neither option is free of proliferation liabilities. The immobilization option has the advantage of not sending an unintended signal about the possible value of the routine use, in civilian power generation, of plutonium recycled by reprocessing spent fuel. But it has the disadvantage of not changing the weapon plutonium isotopically, which means that if Russia or the United States should ever choose to recover the plutonium from the glass -which they could easily do — they could reuse the plutonium in new nuclear weapons based on existing designs. Russia and the United States could also recover reactor-grade plutonium that emerges from the MOX option with comparable ease. But because the isotopies are different, weapons using this plutonium would have to be redesigned, which would require nuclear tests. That means the path to reuse from spent fuel would be more difficult technically and politically — as well as easier to detect — than reusing weapons plutonium extracted from glass. BREEDER REACTORS INCREASE PROLIFERATION RISKS AND THE PRACTICE OF FUEL REPROCESSING IS CONTRARY TO THE UNITED STATES’ NONPROLIFERATION POLICY Chauncey Starr , president emeritus of the Electric Power Research Institute, March, 1997; NUCLEAR NEWS, “The future of nuclear power”//VT98-maf The major relation to the nonproliferation goal arises from the technical reality that all spent uranium fuel from power reactors contains large quantities of plutonium, mixed with many radioactive isotopes. While the quality may be inferior for weapons, it may nevertheless represent a potential threat. The plutonium, however, is suitable for recycle in power reactors, and its use is essential to achieve the full benefit of the fast breeder needed to extend nuclear power for century. Thus, the act of chemical separation of plutonium from spent fuel raises the specter of weapons proliferation. The present U.S. administration has made avoidance of such separation the political keystone of its nonproliferation policies, and has advocated instead deep burial of spent fuel. The Yucca Mountain project is intended as such an eternal burial site. THE UNITED STATES HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO SET A NON-PROLIFERATION EXAMPLE FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD BY NOT REPROCESSING ITS SPENT FUEL Luther J. Carter, Staff Writer, January 11, 1997; BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS, “It’s time to lay this waste to rest: there’s not going to be a perfect site for disposing of spent reactor fuel”//VT98-maf It is doubly important that the United States set the right example for the rest of the world because the plutonium created by power reactors–already totaling hundreds of tons of weapons-usable material–would also be sequestered. As long as the fuel is not reprocessed, the plutonium it contains is rendered relatively inaccessible for weapons use by the spent fuel’s lethal radioactivity. THE UNITED STATES SHOULD NOT REPROCESS ANY OF ITS SPENT FUEL UNTIL CURRENT STOCKPILES OF PLUTONIUM ARE GONE; OTHERWISE, ANOTHER COLD WAR Robert Manning, senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, January 10, 1997; THE MOSCOW TIMES, “Invitation to Proliferate”//VT98-maf The economic value of plutonium use has changed radically since the Europeans and Japan sought endless plutonium fuel during the energy crisis of the early 1970s. Now, and for the foreseeable future, the world is awash in plutonium. Placing plutonium under international control should be the preferred option. At a minimum, the administration should get a firm commitment from Russia that it will cooperate in the accounting of nuclear material, safeguarding facilities and not reprocessing any spent fuel from MOX plants until current stockpiles of separated plutonium are drawn down. It’s almost enough to make one wax nostalgic for the bad old days of the Cold War. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-BREEDERS NUCLEAR REACTORS CREATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF DEADLY RADIOACTIVE POLLUTION NUCLEAR REACTORS EMIT HIGHLY RADIOACTIVE LOW-LEVEL WASTE IN BOTH LIQUID AND GASEOUS FORM Helen Caldicott, M.D., 1994; NUCLEAR MADNESS, revised edition, p. 70//VT98-maf The term nuclear waste (radwaste) refers to all the unusable, radioactively contaminated by-products of the nuclear fuel cycle and the weapons program. Intensely radioactive, “high-level” waste consists of fission products of uranium in the form of either intensely radioactive irradiated fuel or as a concentrated liquid or solid. Both forms contain substantial quantities of deadly plutonium. “Low-level” waste includes contaminated articles of clothing, decommissioned plant components, and fission by- products given off by nuclear reactors in dilute aqueous and gaseous form. But often so-called low level waste is highly radioactive. REACTOR SITES ACCUMULATE POOLS OF IRRADIATED FUEL WHICH ARE HIGHLY DANGEROUS Helen Caldicott, M.D., 1994; NUCLEAR MADNESS, revised edition, p. 171 -1 72//VT98-maf Because there are no commercial reprocessing plants in operation in the United States today, individual nuclear plants are required to store their irradiated fuel in the holding pools (euphemistically called swimming pools) indefinitely, and the accumulation of such rods is causing the pools to become dangerously full. The NRC has granted nuclear plants an interim license to pack their fuel rods closer together than originally planned, a procedure that is only relatively safe if done correctly and operated properly. In certain circumstances, accidents in these “swimming pools” could become very severe, such as the loss of cooling water, with subsequent overheating of the zirconium cladding of the rods. This would cause a steam zirconium reaction, with rapid dispersal of the toxic fission products into a building not designed for their containment, and certain systems that were designed to prevent such an accident could fail or be rendered inoperable. Criticality in the pool is also a possibility. By the end of 1976, 3,000 metric tons of spent fuel lay in nuclear pools across the United States. By 1983, an estimated 13,000 tons was dangerously straining the capacity of storage pool facilities, and in December 1989, 16,423 metric tons of spent fuel had accumulated at commercial reactor sites. NEW REACTORS DO NOT MITIGATE THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND WILL KILL MILLIONS OF PEOPLE Helen Caldicott, M.D., 1994; NUCLEAR MADNESS, revised edition, p.155//VT98-maf So now we face a situation where new, untested, potentially unsafe reactors may be built over the next thirty-five years, with even fewer licensing safeguards than in the past at a time when nuclear waste pollutes the earth, and millions are destined to die of radiation- induced disease; all following a theory fabricated by the nuclear priesthood supposedly to mitigate the greenhouse effect which, in fact, nuclear power cannot do. NUCLEAR REACTORS PRODUCE HIGHLY RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINATED FUEL RODS WHICH ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO DISPOSE OF PROPERLY Helen Caldicott, M.D., 1994; NUCLEAR MADNESS, revised edition, p. 70//VT9 8 -maf Because hundreds of radioactive elements are produced when uranium is consumed in the fission process, they gradually build up in the fuel rods and begin to hinder its efficiency. In addition, some uranium remains unfissioned, and it, together with the plutonium, can be retrieved and reprocessed for use at the front end of the fuel cycle, or to be manufactured into nuclear weapons. Because of the inefficiency factor, each year reactors are shut down so that technicians can replace one-quarter to one third of the contaminated fuel rods. Since there is no way to dispose of the highly radioactive irradiated fuel rods permanently, they are currently managed on site at each of the operating and formally operational reactor sites in the U.S. They must be handled with extreme care because they are intensely radioactive; a few seconds of unshielded exposure would deliver a lethal dose. REACTORS CREATE LETHAL RADIOACTIVE WASTE WHICH WILL LINGER FOR YEARS AND WREAK HAVOC ON FUTURE GENERATIONS Helen Caldicott, M.D., 1994; NUCLEAR MADNESS, revised edition, p. 68//VT98-maf The dangers intrinsic to the nuclear industry are unique. Not only is nuclear technology unsafe, the industry has virtually ignored the fact that a reactor’s highly radioactive waste products are indestructible. Were all the dangers I have enumerated thus far miraculously overcome, the sole problem of the impossibility of waste “disposal” and its impact on future generations — should be sufficient to give pause. For, once created, some of these nuclear by-products will remain in our biosphere for tens and hundreds of thousands of years, wreaking irreversible damage on plant, animal, and human life, unless successfully contained. What moral right do we have to leave such a legacy to our descendants. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-BREEDERS NUCLEAR BREEDER REACTORS WILL EXPLODE IN AN ACCIDENT A BREEDER REACTOR COULD CAUSE AN ALL-OUT NUCLEAR EXPLOSION Helen Caldicott, M.D., 1994; NUCLEAR MADNESS, revised edition, p. 88 // VT98-maf The operation of a breeder reactor is much more hazardous than that of an ordinary commercial reactor. The core is made of plutonium surrounded by a blanket of uranium which captures neutrons and converts to more plutonium. So as you burn plutonium, you make more than you lose. Once out of control, a fission reaction in a breeder could cause not only a meltdown but also a fully fledged nuclear explosion. (The nuclear industry calls this a rapid disassembly accident.) A REACTOR MELTDOWN WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN AND WILL KILL MILLIONS OF PEOPLE Helen Caldicott, M.D., 1994; NUCLEAR MADNESS, revised edition, p. 15 8//VT98 -maf When will we be free of the nuclear industry’s absolute control over our lives? What will Stop them? A meltdown at Indian Point, forty miles from the center of Manhattan, trapping millions of people in a radioactive hell, unable to escape, dying within forty-eight hours of acute radiation illness? Such an event is not unlikely according to the NRC, because this reactor is plagued with safety problems. ———————————————————————–NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-BREEDERS NUCLEAR BREEDER REACTORS ARE RIPE FOR TERRORISTS TO STEAL THE COMPONENTS OF A NUCLEAR BOMB FROM ONCE THE PLUTONIUM IS STOLEN FROM REACTORS, IT IS NOT VERY DIFFICULT TO MANUFACTURE AN ATOMIC BOMB Helen Caldicott, M.D., 1994; NUCLEAR MADNESS, revised edition, p. 84//VT9 8 -maf Plutonium’s role in atomic bomb production has made its value soar on the black market. It is vulnerable to theft by non-nuclear nations, terrorists, racketeers, and lunatics. Once an individual or group is in possession of plutonium, bomb fabrication is not very difficult. Using only declassified information, college students have succeeded in designing functional bombs. The designs call for metal fixtures bought at local hardware stores and ten to twenty pounds of plutonium, an amount that can easily be concealed in a shopping bag. IF WEAPONS-GRADE PLUTONIUM IS USED IN BREEDER REACTORS IT WILL BE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PREVENT THEFT BY TERRORISTS Caspar Henderson, Staff Writer, February 7, 1997; FINANCIAL TIMES LONDON EDITION 1, “Too hot for burning: Weapons-grade plutonium is going to be burned in civilian nuclear reactors”//VT98-maf But critics warn that if weapons-grade plutonium were used more widely in civilian reactors it would be harder to prevent theft by terrorists. They also say it would be more expensive, more dangerous and slower than alternative disposal routes. What is more, they fear, it will encourage vested interests in other countries which have been trying to revive a worldwide plutonium industry. In 1994 a committee of the US National Academy of Sciences concluded that the best protection from theft – apart from tight security and international inspection would be to make metallic plutonium even more dangerous to handle by contaminating it with highly radioactive debris. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-SPSS SOLAR POWER SATELLITES ARE CURRENTLY AN IMPRACTICAL ENERGY OPTION SOLAR POWER STATIONS ARE A LONG, LONG WAY OFF Oliver Morgan, MAIL ON SUNDAY, February 09, 1997: Pg. 8, TITLE: New dawn beckons if the world turns to the sun // VT98-acs Still, the prospect of solar power stations is a long way off. Andrew Dlugolecki says: ‘There is enormous potential, but the big money has to come in at some stage. That is a marketing problem, a gulf to be bridged.’ Bridging that gulf of disbelief is the project for the new millennium. SOLAR SATELLITE POWER SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE EVEN BY 2020 YOSHIO SHIOTANI Senior staff writer, The Nikkei Weekly, December 23, 1996; Pg. 23, TITLE: Scientists see a world on cusp of new knowledge // VT98-acs Japan’s National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, linked to the Science and Technology Agency, and Germany’s System Technology Innovation Research Institute, associated with the Fraun Hofer Association, conducted a joint survey of scientists in their respective nations last year. The institutes asked scientists to set time frames for the development of various technologies. Opinions varied among respondents but most agreed that an energy-generating satellite, capturing sunlight and beaming the energy to earth as microwaves, is not likely to become a reality even beyond 2020. HUGE TECHNOLOGICAL HURDLES STAND IN THE WAY OF SOLAR POWER STATIONS International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, “Microwave Transmission: Japanese Engineers Envision Solar Power Plants in Space,”September 9, 1996,//sry-12 Researchers at Kobe, Kyoto and Hokkaido universities are exploring ways to effectively implement microwave energy transmission from space. The trick is to maintain relative accuracy, the beam would have to land within a diameter of 1 km from the receiving antenna. This is equivalent to standing on a 330 meter tower and trying to hit a 1cm bullseye on the ground with a ray gun. Nobuyuki Kaya of Kobe University said what is needed is some kind of pilot signal that the earth station could relay to the power-transmitting antenna to direct microwave transmission. IT IS UNSURE IF MICROWAVE TRANSMISSION TO EARTH IS POSSIBLE AKIHIKO NISHIYAMA, The Nikkei Weekly, “Labs look to tap power sources in space Microwaves, lasers would convey electricity to satellites,”July 1, 1996, //sry-17 If ways can be found to transmit that power to the ground, just about any place on Earth could gain access to a power supply. That includes desert and mountain regions that are not yet electrified as well as distant islands that are not wired to any grid. SPS IDEAS GO WAY BEYOND CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES AKIHIKO NISHIYAMA, The Nikkei Weekly, “Labs look to tap power sources in space Microwaves, lasers would convey electricity to satellites,”July 1, 1996, //sry-14 Today’s satellites already tap into the sun’s energy to power on-board instruments. But the power-generating systems being dreamed up by engineers go way beyond the solar panels now in use. SOLAR POWER STATIONS REQUIRE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AKIHIKO NISHIYAMA, The Nikkei Weekly, “Labs look to tap power sources in space Microwaves, lasers would convey electricity to satellites,”July 1, 1996, //sry-21 With price tags like these, it is not surprising that voices are starting to call for international cooperation in the effort to put power generators in space. The U.S. and Europe now are both pursuing projects of their own. TIME FRAME FOR SOLAR POWER STATIONS IS RIDICULOUS John S. Lewis, The Futurist, Escaping the ultimate disaster – a cosmic collision. January 11, 1997.\\sry-26 They may provide the propellants for future interplanetary expeditions, the metals for construction of solar power satellites to meet Earth’s energy needs in the third millennium, the life-support materials and radiation shielding to protect space colonies, and the precious and strategic metals needed by Earth’s industries. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-SPSS SOLAR POWER SATELLITES ARE CURRENTLY AN IMPRACTICAL ENERGY OPTION [P. 2] SOLAR POWER STATIONS REQUIRE VAST IMPROVEMENT IN TECHNOLOGY Anjana Ahuja, The Times, “Plugging into a solar system,”July 10, 1996,//sry-27 Power from the Sun would call for radical improvements in photovoltaic cells. These convert solar energy into electricity and would be prime components of any SSP network. MAINTENECE PROBLEMS WOULD BE EXPENSIVE AND UNDESIREABLE Anjana Ahuja, The Times, “Plugging into a solar system,”July 10, 1996,//sry-28 The logistical problems are horrendous. Let’s suppose the SSP system works. Who will maintain it, fix it, and put the spacecraft in the right place? Astronauts making regular trips into space to act as handymen would be neither cheap nor desirable, so serious thought would need to be given to robots or remote operating systems. SPS ONLY PRODUCES 10,000KW AKIHIKO NISHIYAMA, The Nikkei Weekly, “Labs look to tap power sources in space Microwaves, lasers would convey electricity to satellites,”July 1, 1996, //sry-15 As designed, the SPS2000 weighs 240 metric tons and has a power output of 10,000 kilowatts. From its orbit 1,100km above the equator, it could convert sunlight into electricity and beam it down to power stations equipped with receiving antennas. SOLAR POWER STATIONS PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS WATTAGE THAN NUCLEAR International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, “Microwave Transmission: Japanese Engineers Envision Solar Power Plants in Space,”September 9, 1996,//sry-11 SPS2000, a tent-shaped, power-generator satellite, could theoretically supply 300 kwh of electricity in three minutes of microwave transmissions to receiving antennas strategically located on earth. About 240 metric tons with a power output of 10,000 kw, the satellite would be placed in orbit 1,100 km above the equator. Two sides of the tent-like structure, measuring more than 300 meters square, would be covered with thin-film solar cells. The base of the unit would support the microwave power-transmitting antenna. Launch costs could be the ultimate obstacle, however, to SPS2000. Estimated at $9.2 billion, Japanese researchers are making international, cost-sharing appeals to the United States and European countries where similar projects are underway. Comparisons also are drawn to more than twice the cost of launching a 1 million kw-class nuclear power reactor that would send power back to earth. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-SPSS SOLAR SATELLITE POWER IS SIMPLY TOO EXPENSIVE SPS IS NOT PRACTICAL UNLESS LAUNCH COSTS ARE LOWERED. AKIHIKO NISHIYAMA, The Nikkei Weekly, “Labs look to tap power sources in space Microwaves, lasers would convey electricity to satellites,”July 1, 1996, //sry-20 “For space-power generation to become a practical reality, we have to find a way to lower launch costs,” admitted the institute’s Susumu Sasaki. EXPECTED LAUNCH COSTS UPWARD OF $9.2 BILLION AKIHIKO NISHIYAMA, The Nikkei Weekly, “Labs look to tap power sources in space Microwaves, lasers would convey electricity to satellites,”July 1, 1996, //sry-19 Finally, there is the question of cost. The experimental SPS2000 satellite is expected to cost upwards of 1 trillion yen (9.2 billion dollars) to launch. HUGE STARTUP COSTS FOR AN UNPROVEN TECHNOLOGY International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, “Microwave Transmission: Japanese Engineers Envision Solar Power Plants in Space,”September 9, 1996,//sry-24 Launch costs could be the ultimate obstacle, however, to SPS2000. Estimated at $9.2 billion, Japanese researchers are making international, cost-sharing appeals to the United States and European countries where similar projects are underway. Comparisons also are drawn to more than twice the cost of launching a 1 million kw-class nuclear power reactor that would send power back to earth. —————————————————————————————————————NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-SPSS SOLAR SATELLITE POWER WILL DISRUPT LIFE ON EARTH MICROWAVES COULD CAUSE ECOSYSTEM DAMAGE AKIHIKO NISHIYAMA, The Nikkei Weekly, “Labs look to tap power sources in space Microwaves, lasers would convey electricity to satellites,”July 1, 1996, //sry-16 Concern over possible damage to the ecosystem is being investigated by researchers at Japan’s Institute of Space and Aeronautical Science and its Electrochemical Laboratory. Experiments are currently being designed to test microwaves effects on life on earth. SPS INVOLVES ENVIRONMENTAL AND SAFETY CONCERNS Anjana Ahuja, The Times, “Plugging into a solar system,”July 10, 1996,//sry-30 Environmental and safety concerns also exist. Some question the wisdom of beaming large amounts of energy on to the planet. POSSIBILITY THAT MICROWAVES WOULD HARM ECOSYSTEM AKIHIKO NISHIYAMA, The Nikkei Weekly, “Labs look to tap power sources in space Microwaves, lasers would convey electricity to satellites,”July 1, 1996, //sry-18 Sharpshooting aside, there is still the need to confirm that power-beaming microwaves do not harm the ecosystem. Experiments designed to answer that question are being planned by the Institute of Space and Aeronautical Science and the Electrotechnical Laboratory. SOLAR POWER SATELLITES FURTHER DISRUPT INDIGENOUS PEOPLE International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, “Microwave Transmission: Japanese Engineers Envision Solar Power Plants in Space,”September 9, 1996,//sry-23 One advantage of space-based, solar-power generation, given accuracy complications and potential ecosystem damage is worked-out, is receiving antennas could be located in remote desert or mountainous areas. This would bring clean electric power to indigenous peoples who have never been wired to a grid. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-SPSS SOLAR POWER SATELLITES WILL TRIGGER SPACE MILITARIZATION AND CONFLICT SOLAR SPACE STATIONS CAN BE USED AS MILITARY WEAPON Peter Grier, Air Force Magazine, “The Arena of Space,” September, 1996//sry-5 Orbiting solar power stations — a likely commercial development over the next two decades — could well boost the power of RF satellites even further. They could also help space -based high-energy lasers attain smaller spot sizes at longer ranges, perhaps making them a practical alternative weapon. SPS CAN BE CONVERTED INTO POWERFUL SPACE-BASED WEAPONS SYSTEM Jimmy Higgins, U.S. Newswire, “American Underdog Takes on Japanese in Space Development”, July 16, 1996,//sry-6 What also is at stake for America is its military superiority to Japan. Since each SPS can generate the equivalent output capacity of one or more nuclear power plants, an SPS can be converted into a very powerful, space-based weapons system with devastating accuracy and destructive force. SOLAR POWER STATIONS ARE START OF DEVASTATING WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT Peter Grier, Air Force Magazine, “The Arena of Space,” September, 1996//sry-7 Orbiting solar power stations — a likely commercial development over the next two decades — could well boost the power of RF satellites even further. They could also help space -based high-energy lasers attain smaller spot sizes at longer ranges, perhaps making them a practical alternative weapon. DEFENSE CONTRACTORS SELL SPS AS DEFENSE SYSTEM. Plain, Stephen W., Jane’s Defence Weekly, “Siemens puts defence electronics up for sale,” March 5, 1997,//sry-2 Facilities in the UK include the SPS satellite communications and defence systems facility in Christchurch, Dorset; the air defence operations at Cowes, Isle of Wight, and a manufacturing site in Ilford, Essex. The Roke Manor research facility in Romsey is also included in the UK defence asset base. Core projects include the Bowman next generation battlefield communications programme for the British Army, the Sampson air defence system and FOCLSE joint headquarters C2 system. SPS STARTS SATELLITE WARS IN SPACE Peter Grier, Air Force Magazine, “The Arena of Space,” September, 1996//sry-3 Decoys might be one defensive solution. Lightweight fake satellites attached to the real thing with long tethers might be able to fool the simple ASAT weapons that will be within reach of regional US adversaries in the early decades of the next century, for example. But it’s expensive to put even relatively lightweight decoys into orbit, and thus a decoy-ASAT exchange rate can favor the attacker. As ASAT weapons become more sophisticated and able to distinguish among a number of decoys, the value of fake satellites could precipitously decline. SPS DEVELOPMENT CAUSES PUTTING MINES IN SPACE TO DESTROY SATELLITES Peter Grier, Air Force Magazine, “The Arena of Space,” September, 1996//sry-4 Furthermore, development of space “mines” may soon be within the reach of a number of other advanced nations as well as the US. “Mines are quite awkward to negate,” notes the Vistas space applications study, as it is not clear if they would be detectable from the ground. The technology of groundbased pulse lasers is relatively well understood. The cost and detail problems of building a large weapon might eventually be overcome by hostile nations — and laser pulses can be generated for around $1,000 per shot, much less than the cost of deploying individual decoys. POWER STATIONS TRIGGER MASSIVE STAR WARS SPENDING Peter Grier, Air Force Magazine, “The Arena of Space,” September, 1996//sry-25 Orbiting solar power stations — a likely commercial development over the next two decades — could well boost the power of RF satellites even further. They could also help space -based high-energy lasers attain smaller spot sizes at longer ranges, perhaps making them a practical alternative weapon.. If the US does field systems intended to control the high ground of space, defending its own systems may prove to be a big problem. Some of the weapons that could be used against satellites, such as aircraft-launched kinetic antisatellite (ASAT) interceptors, are relatively inexpensive compared with the cost of the satellites themselves. An adversary could develop a formidable space-denial capability without having to commit resources on a gargantuan scale. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-SPSS SOLAR POWER SATELLITES WILL TRIGGER SPACE MILITARIZATION AND CONFLICT [P. 2] SOLAR POWER STATION CAUSES INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT Peter Grier, Air Force Magazine, “The Arena of Space,” September, 1996//sry-10 Orbiting solar power stations — a likely commercial development over the next two decades — could well boost the power of RF satellites even further. They could also help space -based high-energy lasers attain smaller spot sizes at longer ranges, perhaps making them a practical alternative weapon. Such physical attacks, however, might well constitute an unwanted provocation under certain political situations. More stealthy space weapons might also be needed to fill out any Air Force space-control arsenal. So-called rendezvous space weapons, for instance, are small satellites that gradually edge closer to target space assets. They might quietly spray paint onto an adversary’s sensors or solar panels or nudge the craft gently to send it out of orbit. Rendezvous weapons effects might be difficult to distinguish from simple malfunctions. SOLAR POWER SATELLITES START NEW COMPETITIVENESS WITH JAPAN Jimmy Higgins, U.S. Newswire, “American Underdog Takes on Japanese in Space Development”, July 16, 1996,//sry-9 “In the next decade or two, new technologies will allow the fielding of spacebased weapons of devastating effectiveness,” conclude report authors. TSI hopes to unite Americans to support its efforts through TSI’s unprecedented national broadcast and Internet campaign. TSI is seeking to motivate millions of Americans, this election year, to direct their congressional representatives to pass the needed legislation swiftly and without government micro-management. This legislation will not ask for U.S. taxpayers to provide money nor deficit spending nor direct government monetary support of this effort. The legislation will allow TSI to challenge the Japanese commercial space development effort that has already made Japan become only the third nation in human history to land multiple satellites on the moon. The historical Japanese moon landings, which were downplayed by Japan to reduce exposure to Americans, were launched in preparation for SPS development in space. SPS DEVELOPMENTS ARE TOO TOP SECRET Jimmy Higgins, U.S. Newswire, “American Underdog Takes on Japanese in Space Development”, July 16, 1996,//sry-8 The legislation will allow TSI to challenge the Japanese commercial space development effort that has already made Japan become only the third nation in human history to land multiple satellites on the moon. The historical Japanese moon landings, which were downplayed by Japan to reduce exposure to Americans, were launched in preparation for SPS development in space. SPS ENCOURAGES SPACE EXPLORATION AKIHIKO NISHIYAMA, The Nikkei Weekly, “Labs look to tap power sources in space Microwaves, lasers would convey electricity to satellites,”July 1, 1996, //sry-13 The idea is to launch “power-generator” satellites and to station power plants on the moon to convert the sun’s tremendous energy into electric power. The electric power could then be transmitted to other satellites in orbit, supply the needs of future space stations and moon bases and even meet some of the energy requirements on Earth. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-TRANSPORTATION RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION ARE NOT PRACTICAL ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL NOT SOLVE ALL TRANSPORTATION PROBLEMS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 272 Of course, electric vehicles are not a comprehensive solution to all our transportation problems. They do not eliminate traffic gridlock or traffic accidents, nor do they counter urban sprawl and a host of other problems created by auto dependency. That would be asking too much. Those important issues need to be addressed through comprehensive transportation reform efforts. DEPT. OF ENERGY OVERESTIMATES HYDROGEN FUEL CELL PERFORMANCE THE ELECTRICITY DAILY, October 31, 1996, TITLE: Reviewer Hits DOE Renewables // VT98acs Little is also considerably less bullish on hydrogen in low- temperature fuel cells than is DOE for the near-term, although the consultants like the longer term prospects for fuel cells. ADL suggests reducing the near-term market penetration from 320 MW in 2000 to 160 MW and from 3,390 MW in 2005 to 1,700 MW. Little says it agrees with DOE that a cumulative 36 GW market for fuel cells through 2020 is “plausible.” But ADL says it would lower the market by 10 GW over the earlier years. “Since the bulk of this change is for the peaking market only,” says ADL, “it will have a small impact on energy savings, due to the low capacity factors characteristic of this market segment.” TEN YEARS UNTIL BATTERY BREAKTHROUGHS EXIST FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 285 “Contrary to the perception fostered by EV foes, dramatic breakthroughs in battery and other energy storage and conversion technologies appear imminent. The number of new battery technologies being developed, the heartening progress being made in battery engineering, and the scale of this international effort all suggest that battery-related performance problems will be mastered within five to ten years. Ten years may sound like a long time, but not on the scale of major technological developments with revolutionary global implications.: BATTERY PROBLEMS MAKE UTILIZATION OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES DIFFICULT JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 285 Present battery technology not only restricts range and power for today’s EVs, but raises vehicle costs and causes inconvenience in the form of lengthy charging times. the future. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-HYDROPOWER HYDROPOWER IS AN INADEQUATE AND INFERIOR OPTION [also see Hydropower Disadvantage] HYDROPOWER WILL NOT SOLVE ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS OR DECREASE DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL Tim Palmer, author of 9 books on river conservation, 1994, LIFELINES: The Case for River Conservation, p.82//VT98-JGM In 1988 FERC estimated that 1,500 new dams may eventually be built for hydroelectric power. Only 13,000 megawatts were likely to be developed by the year 2030 due to low energy prices and “regulatory constraints.” Regarding the small projects most likely to be built, American Rivers stated that the new development “could not have any discernible impact on global warming or the serious national problems of acid rain, dependence on foreign sources of energy, or the negative balance of trade.” Yet hundreds of miles of rivers are threatened by the belief that increasing our electric capacity by a percentage Point or two is of vital importance to American society. A system of regulation theoretically exists to weigh the choices and protect public values. How will that system has functioned is a good question. RIVERS ALLOW NON-POWER RECREATION, DAMS PROMOTE FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION DAVID M. BOILING, FORMER EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF FRIENDS OF THE RIVER, 1994, HOW TO SAVE A RIVER: A Handbook for citizen action, p.204 -205//VT98 -JGM The special value of river recreation is that it an be enjoyed in harmony with nature, rather than at nature’s expense. Recreational use of a river requires little or no intervention by engineers and is often improved, in fact, by the absence of human “enhancements.” Reservoirs, on the other hand, exact an enormous price from the environment. That price is then compounded by the impact of ubiquitous motorboats and their consumption of fossil fuels. THE DEMANDS OF HYDROPOWER SERVES ARE THE EASIEST TO ELIMINATE Tim Palmer, author of 9 books on river conservation, 1994, LIFELINES: The Case for River Conservation, p.88//VT98-JGM The peaking demands that hydropower accommodates are among the easiest demands to reduce. Peak load management devices that alternately shut down air conditioners for ten minutes at a time have cut loads by 10 to 20 Percent in some California cities. Aluminum production, accounting for much of the hydropower use in the Northwest, can be cut by 90 percent through recycling. For steel, recycling uses only 14 percent of the energy it takes to produce the metal from raw materials. ENERGY EFFICIENCY CAN PROVIDE MORE ENERGY THAN THE BEST HYDROPOWER Tim Palmer, author of 9 books on river conservation, 1994, LIFELINES: The Case for River Conservation, p.88//VT98-JGM There are ample reasons for limiting new hydropower sources to the less harmful options. The US. Department of Energy estimated that 12,500 megawatts of power can be developed with free flow turbines, set into rivers without dams, and potentially with minimal impacts. Another 5,000 megawatts may be available by tapping irrigation canals, domestic water systems, and very small sites of less than 1 megawatt. And benign sources of other kinds can be tapped to increase energy supplies. A study for the Department of Energy found that wind could supply 20 percent of our electricity needs. Even more promising photovoltaic technology to convert solar power to electricity is nearing commercial success in the 1990S. Many experts predict that it will compete economically with coal by the year 2005 and that photovoltaic energy sources will be built on the rooftops of many houses. Any one of these opportunities represents more power than would be provided by even the most ambitious growth of hydroelectricity. Even greater energy savings will result when the larger culture no longer considers an electric appliance, no matter how frivolous or impractical, to be the ideal gift at Christmas, and when laundry drying on a clothesline is no longer seen as some kind of social stigma in suburban neighborhoods. ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS A BETTER ALTERNATIVE TO HYDROPOWER Tim Palmer, author of 9 books on river conservation, 1994, LIFELINES: The Case for River Conservation, p.87//VT98-JGM Already effective in meeting the energy needs of the 1980s and early 1990s, energy efficiency improvements without new hydropower dams can economically extend the reach of existing resources. The growth of innovative, renewable supplies is possible, feasible, and inevitable. An industrial trade group, the Electric Power Research Institute of Palo Alto, predicted that new energy conservation programs will save the nation 25,000 megawatts in the 1990s, surpassing the 20,000 megawatts saved in the 1970s and 1980s. That is enough to eliminate twenty five large coal or nuclear power plants. California’s utilities forecast that 7O to 100 percent of their new demands in the next twenty years can be provided by efficiency improvements at up to one-seventh the cost of new construction. Enticements in the 1980s came not from the federal government, which was entrenched in development policies of the past, but from state public utility commissions and the utilities themselves , which realized the economic sense of efficiency. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-EFFICIENCY CHOOSING ENERGY EFFICIENCY ALONE IS AN INADEQUATE OPTION EMPHASIZING EFFICIENCY ALONE WITHOUT RENEWABLE ENERGY FOCUS WILL ONLY BUY TIME, BUT NOT STOP THE DAMAGE OF OUR THROWAWAY SOCIETY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 327 An energy strategy that concentrates on efficiency alone in an otherwise “business as usual” world of rising population growth and ever increasing material aspirations will merely buy time without solving the underlying problem of the throwaway society that consumes its energy capital instead of its income and in the process fouls its nest. We therefore must greatly expand our national investments apace in both efficiency and renewables. ECONOMIC INCENTIVES ON THE PART OF UTILITIES STOPS INCREASED ENERGY EFFICIENCY Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, November 11, 1996, Pg. 06, TITLE: A business praying for ‘cultural revolution’ // VT98-acs One powerful impediment, however, is what some economists would describe as market failure – the fact that energy prices do not necessarily send the right signals to consumers. “An electricity company makes money by selling electricity, not by saving it,” says one UK official. “For some parts of the economy it is not rational to go for energy efficiency.” NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-’CLEAN COAL’ ‘CLEAN COAL’ SCHEMES ARE AN ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER SUPPOSEDLY “CLEAN COAL” PROJECTS ARE A COMPLETE FAILURE Anna Aurilio Staff Scientist U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee The Clean Coal Technology Program should not be continued because it is unnecessary given Clean Air Act market incentives for coal burners to reduce emissions. Furthermore, a 1991 General Accounting Office study found that nearly half of the 32 Clean Coal Technology projects going back to that time had fallen behind schedule, incurred cost overruns or scaled back their objectives. GAO also found that DOE was funding some technologies which would have been commercialized without federal assistance as well as some technologies that were more polluting than existing alternatives. LIQUID FUEL FROM COAL IS POLLUTING AND UNECONOMICAL — THE WORST OF ALL ENERGY ALTERNATIVES Anna Aurilio Staff Scientist U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee Particularly objectionable are the coal liquefaction and gasification programs. The production of liquid fuel from coal is uneconomical and environmentally unsound. A 1991 DOE report ranked coal liquefaction next to last in a review of 23 energy technologies. “CLEAN COAL” PROGRAMS HAVE A TERRIBLE TRACK RECORD Anna Aurilio Staff Scientist U.S. Public Interest Research Group, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee Today, of the fifty projects originally scheduled to be funded through the Clean Coal Technology Program, only 22 have completed operation, 11 are in operation or under construction, seven are being designed, and several have been cancelled. CLEAN COAL TECHNOLOGIES PROMOTE GLOBAL WARMING Daniel C. Esty, director of the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy; Seth S. Dunn, the Worldwatch Institute, The China Business Review, January 11, 1997; Pg. 41; TITLE: Greening US aid to China; US-China environmental issues // VT98-acs Though sometimes portrayed as an example of US environmental technologies in demand around the globe, “clean coal” makes little sense as the centerpiece of any environmental program because, though this technology reduces emissions of sulfur dioxide, it increases carbon dioxide emissions. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-GENERAL PICKING ONE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCE AND CALLING IT THE “ANSWER” IS AN UNACCEPTABLE POLICY OPTION THROWING BILLIONS AT ONE PANACEA IS THE WRONG WAY TO GO — WE NEED A BROAD DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY ALTERNATIVES Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Washington Post, September 15, 1996, Pg. C02, TITLE: If We Kicked the Oil Habit, Saddam Wouldn’t Menace Us // VT98-acs Some of these new technologies may not pan out. Extracting oil from shale, a much-touted process in the late 1970s, never became environmentally feasible. Other technologies have matured just as their proponents predicted; there will be thousands of electric cars on the highways of Southern California within a decade. The point is not to throw billions at some panacea but to experiment widely on a small scale, discard what doesn’t work and redouble our efforts on technologies that seem promising. The notion that we would do better to leave such investment to the “free market” is as silly as saying that America should have left the development of the interstate highway system to private enterprise. NO SINGLE RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY IS THE ANSWER -IT WILL TAKE AN INTEGRATED LATTICE OF MANY POLICY CHANGES TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 313 NO single set of national policies will take best advantage of local renewable resource assets, political realities, and institutional conditions. Ultimately, an intricate lattice of policies will be crafted by state, regional, and local stake holders operating under broad federal guidelines) NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-GENERAL RENEWABLE ENERGY CANNOT PROVIDE A MAJOR PORTION OF OUR ENERGY NEEDS IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE 12% SHARE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY IS UNREALISTIC European Report, March 26, 1997, TITLE: ENERGY: INDUSTRY DIVIDED OVER RENEWABLES BENEFITS // VT98-acs However, he [Daniel Cloquet, Industrial Affairs Director for the Union of Industrial and Employers' Confederations of Europe] warned that UNICE considered the 12% goal to be excessively optimistic on a technical or practical level, especially given the barriers that still exist to the dissemination of renewables technologies. He also pointed out that the need for new investment would be enormous even if renewables were promoted in the most costeffective way (and UNICE does not consider a generalised energy tax to be one of these, saying that this would not be very effective environmentally and would be economically unacceptable), and consequently that the question of the best allocation of resources should be studied. RENEWABLE ENERGY GLOBAL ENERGY CONTRIBUTIONS WILL BE TINY BETWEEN NOW AND 2010 Gustavo Gonzalez, Inter Press Service, September 13, 1996, TITLE: LATIN AMERICA: U.N. REPORT FORECASTS LARGE OIL INVESTMENTS TO 2010 // VT98-acs The use of geothermal and other renewable energy such as solar and wind power is forecast to grow 8.5 percent a year, but their proportion in overall consumption — 0.4 percent in 1991 — will grow to a mere 1.3 percent in 2010 said ECLAC. [U.N. Economic Commission] IT WILL BE 100 YEARS BEFORE NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES REALLY PLAY A MAJOR ROLE Frank Bevc; Samuel Harkness, Power Engineering, October, 1996; Pg. 47; TITLE: Darwinism determines technological survivors; Special Centennial Issue; The Next Century of Power Generation: A Look Ahead // VT98-acs Even looking 100 years into the future, some trends are evident. The earth’s resources are finite. The primary drivers for resource consumption, global population growth and the demand for economic parity and an improved standard of living in developing countries, are unstoppable trends. Fossil fuel economics will change considerably as finite resources are consumed. These higher basic energy costs should enable more capital intensive, higher efficiency technologies to meet a larger share of future energy demands. At the same time, renewable energy technologies will become even more competitive. LOCATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY ELECTRICITY RESOURCES MAKES THEM HARD TO UTILIZE NATIONALLY Utility Reporter Fuels Energy & Power, January 1, 1997, Headline: Available Capacity Of Transmission Systems In Designated Abundant Renewable Energy Resource Regions // VT98-acs Many of the areas with abundant renewable energy resources are far removed from major load centers. Although electrical power can be transmitted over long distances of many hundreds of miles through high-voltage transmission lines, power transmission systems often operate near their limits with little excess capacity for new generation sources. TWO DECADES AFTER THE CAMPAIGN TO SWITCH TO “SOFT ENERGY” RESOURCES, VERY LITTLE HAS HAPPENED KEAY DAVIDSON, EXAMINER SCIENCE WRITER, The San Francisco Examiner, February 19, 1997, Pg. A-8, TITLE: New technology may energize Arctic dwellers; Scientists eye sun, wind and ocean to save on electricity // VT98-acs As Earth’s population booms, developing societies increasingly demand Western-style living standards. Hence, they seek Western-style energy sources. Some of those energy sources are environmentally risky, say, fossil -fuel-burning plants that worsen “global warming” and nuclear reactors that tempt terrorists. So in the 1970s, energy radicals such as Amory Lovins of Colorado and the Bay Area’s Stewart Brand advocated a global shift to “alternative” or “soft” technologies. They championed solar, wind and biomass power, which purportedly have minimal environmental impact. But two decades later, despite major improvements, such technologies still generate only tiny percentages of electric power in the developed and developing nations. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-GENERAL EVIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY USED TO SUPPORT RENEWABLE ENERGY MUST BE REJECTED DEPT. OF ENERGY ESTIMATES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY FLAWED, AN INDEPENDENT REPORT SHOWS Lira Behrens, Inside Energy/with Federal Lands, December 9, 1996; Pg. 7, TITLE: DOE DENIES IT INFLATED BENEFITS OF EFFICIENCY, RENEWABLE ENERGY R&D // VT98-acs The consultant, Glenn Schleede, of Energy Market & Policy Analysis Inc., suggested in a Nov. 7 memo to ”clients and colleagues” that an August peer-review by Arthur D. Little Inc. of DOE’s estimates shows that the department ”has been grossly exaggerating the potential energy savings” from its efficiency and renewable energy programs. The peerreview, which Schleede received through a Freedom of Information Act request, suggests revised estimates of energy savings that are significantly lower than those originally proposed by DOE. DEPT. OF ENERGY OVER ESTIMATES BENEFITS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 79% Greenwire, December 3, 1996, TITLE: ALTERNATIVE ENERGY: NEW TECHNOLOGY NOT PAYING OFF — REPORT // VT98-acs Harnessing alternative energy sources will not be as lucrative as the Energy Dept. has predicted, according to a study by the Cambridge, MA-based consulting firm Arthur D. Little. Specifically, the DOE-sponsored study found that DOE managers overestimated by 79% the potential energy savings from renewable sources and advanced technologies by the year 2000. DEPT. OF ENERGY ALMOST UNIFORMLY OVER ESTIMATES BENEFITS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Greenwire, December 3, 1996, TITLE: ALTERNATIVE ENERGY: NEW TECHNOLOGY NOT PAYING OFF — REPORT // VT98-acs The study found that various DOE strategies for reducing energy use would save only 1.2 quadrillion British thermal units by 2000, instead of the 5.7 quads the DOE had forecast. The report reduced by 95% to 100% the DOE’s estimate of potential energy savings from oil refinery operations and use of biofuels. The only area in which the DOE underestimated potential savings was electric-vehicle research, the study said. Energy consultant Glenn Schleede, a former utility executive, said the findings show that the government’s renewable-energy research is wasteful. ARTHUR D. LITTLE STUDY WAS UNCOVERED WHICH SHOWS HOW DEPT. OF ENERGY OVER ESTIMATES RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL Energy Conservation News, December 1, 1996, TITLE: GOVERNMENT:Former Insider Blasts DOE Savings Estimates // VT98-acs Glenn R. Schleede (Energy Market & Policy Analysis, Inc., P.O. Box 3875, Reston, VA 20195; Tel: 703/709-2213), a private consultant who held top-level government posts during the Nixon, Ford, and Reagan administrations has just issued a commentary on a recently completed Arthur D. Little, Inc. study that Mr. Schleede received in response to a Freedom of Information Act request. According to Schleede’s memorandum, a copy of which was provided to ECN staff in an exclusive interview, the ADL report, entitled Peer Review of QM Estimates and Assumptions, Final Report, August 1996, shows that the Dept. of Energy (DOE) has been grossly exaggerating the potential energy savings from its “energy conservation” and ” renewable energy” programs. DEPT. OF ENERGY HAS MISLED CONGRESS, MEDIA, AND CONSUMERS ABOUIT POTENTIAL IN RENEWABLE ENERGY Energy Conservation News, December 1, 1996, TITLE: GOVERNMENT:Former Insider Blasts DOE Savings Estimates // VT98-acs Schleede [Energy Market & Policy Analysis, Inc.] states that, “it has been clear for some time that DOE has used unrealistic energy price forecasts to overstate potential energy cost savings for consumers. Now, it’s clear that DOE has also misled the Congress, media, and public about energy savings and emission reductions that might result from its energy conservation and renewable energy regulatory and spending programs.” FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS CONSISTENTLY OVERESTIMATED THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY THE ELECTRICITY DAILY, October 31, 1996, TITLE: Reviewer Hits DOE Renewables // VT98acs The Department of Energy has considerably overstated the future contribution of most renewable energy technologies, according to a review for DOE done by Arthur D. Little last summer and obtained by Electricity Daily. The ADL review, “Peer Review of QM Estimates and Assumptions,” examines the DOE “Quality Metrics” (QM) method used by DOE’s office of energy efficiency and renewable energy to estimate energy and cost savings, pollution prevention and job creation effects of renewables and energy efficiency. ADL said that DOE has agreed to lower its future estimates based on the new review. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-GENERAL RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COMPETE WITH CHEAP FOSSIL FUELS MOST RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ARE 2 TO 25 TIMES AS COSTLY AS CONVENTIONAL SOURCES Oliver Morgan, MAIL ON SUNDAY, February 09, 1997: Pg. 8, TITLE: New dawn beckons if the world turns to the sun // VT98-acs But there are daunting barriers. Cost is the most problematic. While electricity in Britain costs around 2p a unit, solar power costs nearer 50p. Solar power does not compare well with other renewable energy sources either – wind power costs between 3.98p and 4.49p a unit, hydro-electricity 4.25p and municipal waste burning 3.48p. NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES WILL REQUIRE EXPENSIVE UPGRADING OF TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS Utility Reporter Fuels Energy & Power, January 1, 1997, Headline: Available Capacity Of Transmission Systems In Designated Abundant Renewable Energy Resource Regions // VT98-acs This (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) study assesses the available capacity of transmission systems in designated abundant renewable energy resource regions, and identifies the requirements for high-capacity plant integration in selected cases. In general, about 50 MW of power from renewable sources can be integrated into existing transmission systems to supply local loads, without transmission upgrades beyond the construction of a substation to connect to the grid. Except in the Southwest, significant investment to strengthen transmission systems will be required to support the development of high-capacity renewable sources of 1000 MW or greater in areas remote from major load centers. Cost estimates for new transmission facilities to integrate and dispatch some of these highcapacity renewable sources range from several million dollars to approximately one billion dollars, with the latter figure being an increase in total investment of 35%, assuming that the renewable source is the only user of the transmission facility. $1 TO $4 RETURN ON RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT IS A FALSE CLAIM Lira Behrens, Inside Energy/with Federal Lands, December 9, 1996; Pg. 7, TITLE: DOE DENIES IT INFLATED BENEFITS OF EFFICIENCY, RENEWABLE ENERGY R&D // VT98-acs Schleede [Glenn Schleede, of Energy Market & Policy Analysis Inc.] takes issue with DOE claims in budget documents that every dollar spent on efficiency and renewable r&d programs will return $ 4 to the public. In his memo, Schleede compiled a chart comparing DOE’s energy savings estimates to the post-peer review revisions. The chart shows that DOE’s estimate of 5.69 quads of energy savings by the year 2000 was revised down to 1.22 quads — a 79% reduction — after the ADL review. The DOE estimate for 2005 declined 61% — from 12.01 quads to 4.69 quads -after the review. For 2010, the estimate decreased from 15.28 quads to 8.85 quads, or 41%, after the review. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-GENERAL CHEAP FOSSIL FUELS WILL KEEP AFFIRMATIVE RENEWABLES OUT OF THE MARKET STABLE AND FALLING PRICES FOR FOSSIL FUELS CONDEMNS RENEWABLE ENERGY EFFORTS Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, October 23, 1996, Pg. 11, TITLE: Energy answers blowing in the wind: Falling oil and gas prices may undermine rationale for renewable sources // VT98acs But both renewables and energy efficiency have had to contend with falling prices for oil and gas, even though companies can still make a profit from saving on their energy bills. “The problem is that there is no demand for energy efficiency in the UK at the moment,” says Mr Eoin Lees, chief executive of the Energy Saving Trust, a government quango that promotes energy efficiency. RENEWABLE ENERGY CANNOT CHALLENGE FOSSIL FUELS IN THE NEXT 50 YEARS Financial Times, February 1, 1997; Pg. 03, TITLE: Supplies of energy safe for 50 years // VT98-ACS Mr Baker, whose company is Britain’s biggest operator of renewable energy, does not expect this sector to challenge fossil fuels over the next 50 years. At present 2 per cent of energy came from new renewable resources such as wind and sun. The percentage could rise to between 6 and 8 per ce nt by 2050, said Mr Baker. This would still be a very small percentage given that 10 per cent of the world’s energy is currently provided by “old” renewable energy sources such as wood and animal dung. RENEWABLE ENERGY HAS BECOME CHEAPER, BUT IS STILL NOT COST COMPETITIVE Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, October 23, 1996, Pg. 11, TITLE: Energy answers blowing in the wind: Falling oil and gas prices may undermine rationale for renewable sources // VT98acs To date, renewables such as wind and solar power are not seen as a profitable business, although their costs have been falling as the technology has evolved. “We do not yet know how to make this economic,” says Mr Rodney Chase, managing director of British Petroleum, which owns a solar energy business in the United States called BP Solar. RENEWABLE ENERGY HAS YET TO BE SHOWN AS RELIABLE, AND IT CANNOT COMPETE ECONOMICALLY WITH FOSSIL FUELS AGIS SALPUKAS, The New York Times, March 9, 1997, Section 4; Page 5; TITLE: Inheriting the Wind; Green Power Wanes, but Not at the Grass Roots // VT98-acs WINDMILLS, solar panels, steam energy from deep in the earth. Many Americans have yearned to produce energy without polluting the air and water or burning irreplaceable fuels like coal, oil and natural gas. But renewable sources of power have proved to be less than reliable in recent years. They have failed to supply large amounts of energy and, perhaps most important, cannot compete with the cheap power derived from fossil fuels. IN THE WEST, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES COST MORE THAN COAL AND NATURAL GAS Gary Gleason of Communique, Renee de Alba of Insight Research, Ron Fish, Public Service Co. of Colorado, Marketing News, September 23, 1996; Pg. 37, TITLE: Will consumers pay for cleaner energy? // VT98-acs The challenge, however, is economic feasibility. In the West, where coal and natural gas are relatively inexpensive, renewable-energy costs more to produce than traditional electricity generation. The research was designed to determine whether consumers would be willing to pay a premium for cleaner energy sources. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-GENERAL RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS ADMINISTERED BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ARE A FAILURE RENEWABLE ENERGY ENERGY FUNDING BY THE GOVERNMENT IS A WASTEFUL FORM OF CORPORATE WELFARE Gary Lee, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post, September 25, 1996, Pg. A03, TITLE: Government Researchers Fear Budget Cuts Will Cool Solar Energy Work // VT98-acs In an interview, Walker, who chairs the House Science Committee, said he is not flatly opposed to all federal funding for research on renewable energy sources. “But in many cases there are companies which acknowledge that they use federal funding to produce projects they have known how to produce for years and that they would not produce without federal aid,” he said. “In my view, that’s not R&D. That’s corporate welfare, and that’s what we don’t need.” AFFIRMATIVE LACK OF CLEAR FUNDING GUIDELINES MEANS THE PLAN WILL BE JUST MORE PORK BARREL SPENDING Fred L. Smith, Jr. President The Competitive Enterprise Institute, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee // VT98-acs Lacking any clear objective criteria for selecting specific projects, science funding will often become another form of pork barrel spending. Some regional or interest group constituency has the political clout to extract higher taxes from the American public to advance its special interest agenda. The rhetoric of science and technology simply make it easier to achieve their goals. Renewable energy research is a good example of this type program. CASE STUDIES DEMONSTRATE THAT GOVERNMENT ENERGY R&D IS A FAILURE Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs The likelihood of systemic “government” failure in the realm of energy research and development is not simply a matter of theory. It is a clear matter of record, and that record is no stranger to most economists outside the Washington beltway. Academic Analysis Show Failure Perhaps the most serious examination of federal R&D programs — conducted for the Brookings Institution by economists Linda Cohen of the University of California at Irvine and Roger Noll of Stanford University — found that energy R&D has been an abject failure and nothing but a pork barrel for political gain. “The overriding lesson from the case studies is that the goal of economic efficiency — to cure market failures in privately sponsored commercial innovation — is so severely constrained by political forces that an effective, coherent national commercial R&D program has never been put in place.” GOVERNMENT R&D IS TOO DISTANT FROM CONSUMERS TO BE SUCCESSFUL Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs And, as noted by the Galvin Report: To be effective, near-term R&D work must take place in an environment rich in interactions with users and customers. Market-based influence, direction, and control are critical to success … The more distant the laboratories are from the marketplace, the more remote the likelihood that they will have something useful to contribute to such activities.” OECD STUDY SHOWS THAT THE MORE THE GOVERNMENT SPENDS ON R&D, THE LESS PRIVATE FIRMS SPEND ON R&D Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs A survey of OECD countries reveals a strong correlation between a country’s total spending on civilian R&D and the degree to which private companies contribute to that expenditure. Governments that do not heavily fund R&D oversee economies that devote a greater proportion of their national spending to that activity. This suggests that publicly-funded R&D doesn’t simply displace private R&D, but that it actually subtracts from what expenditures might otherwise have been. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-GENERAL RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS ADMINISTERED BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ARE A FAILURE [P. 2] GOVERNMENT RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT WILL STOP PRIVATE FIRMS FROM INVESTING IN THESE AREAS — SO NO NET INCREASE IN R&D TAKES PLACE Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs Corporate lobbying power ensures that projects which might have otherwise been funded fully by industry become part of the public R&D portfolio. After all, given the government’s “come and get it!” call to private business (in the words of Eric Reichl/47) it certainly makes sense for businessmen to invest to convince taxpayers to pay for what his company otherwise would. The argument that public R&D only acts to displace private R&D is tellingly made by Cambridge biochemist Terence Kealey: The irrelevance of the government funding of science is illustrated by the comparative statistics … GOVERNMENT RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS WILL SERVE EXISTING VESTED INTERESTS, NOT CONSUMERS Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs Private actors are motivated by the pursuit of profit and are thus constantly driven to efficiently meet the demands of consumers. Public officials, as noted by Nobel laureate James Buchanan — founder of the “public choice” school of political economics — are driven by an entirely different set of incentives; budget maximization, expansion of regulatory power, job security, etc. As noted by Milton Friedman, “People who intend to serve only the public interest are led by an invisible hand to serve private interests which was no part of their intention.” Thus, government tends to decide which industries, technologies, and projects to support on the basis of political – not economic or scientific — considerations. Older, more labor-intensive companies typically exercise the most clout. New and growing firms — the kind that typically produce the most technological breakthroughs — may be economically strong but are usually politically weak. And as former Senator William Proxmire once remarked, “Money will goes where the political power is. Anyone who thinks government funds will be allocated to firms according to merit has not lived or served in Washington very long.” GOVERNMENT IS INCAPABLE OF HANDLING A LONG TERM RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs Longer Public Time Horizons? First, many of the imperfections noted by DOE in the private sector apply as much if not more so to publicly-funded R&D. The idea that elected officials (who are, in the final analysis, making the decisions about how much is to be spent on R&D and who gets it) have longer time horizons than businessmen is dubious to say the least. Long term government projects are difficult to sustain politically given the short time horizons of legislators forced to face constant elections and thus quick results. Government finds that doing even simple thinks like growing crops and delivering mail a constant challenge. Its record at accomplishing complex tasks is even more spotty, as the record of NASA, the Strategic Defense Initiative, and various large-scale projects like the Clinch River Breeder Reactor and the Superconducting Supercollider can attest. FEDERAL SUBSIDY OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROVIDES NO NET INCREASE IN ADVANCEMENTS Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs A landmark study by Edward Denison indicates that, contrary to popular wisdom, the historic social rate of return on organized R&D is no greater than investments in nonresidential capital, and thus. federal subsidy of such activities is at best an economic wash. GOVERNMENT ENERGY R&D PROGRAMS ARE WASTEFUL CORPORATE WELFARE Fred L. Smith, Jr. President The Competitive Enterprise Institute, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee // VT98-acs Such subsidies rarely benefit the types of energy sources targeted. Recall that nuclear power was long the most subsidized form of power; yet, its special status also encouraged politicians to regulate it fiercely. There are no free subsidies. Today, nuclear power is the most financially troubled source of power – in large part because of such restrictive regulation. Would a more market oriented development path have made nuclear power more viable? We will never know. For such reasons, solar power enthusiasts should think twice. The effort devoted to gaining political support comes at a high price, not the least of which is that one may well lose track of economic reality. As soon as preferences change and some new energy source becomes the “flavor of the day,” such hothouse energy sources wither away. Having never been required to meet a market test they often find themselves non-economic, overly complex, and poorly matched to the types of energy needed by consumers. The federal government currently spends approximately $1.3 billion on research on energy efficiency technologies and renewable energy sources. Such programs represent corporate welfare, plain and simple; they should be ended. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-GENERAL AFFIRMATIVE USE OF THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY WILL BE A DISASTER DEPT. OF ENERGY R&D EFFORTS ARE A WASTE OF FUNDS Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs Other dispassionate observers note that, despite the occasional R&D success, DOE energy research expenditures fail to pay for themselves. As MIT’s Thomas Lee, Ben Ball, Jr., and Richard Tabors observe, “the experience of the 1970s and 1980s taught us that if a technology is commercially viable, then government support is not needed; and if a technology is not commercially viable, no amount of government support will make it so” (emphasis in original). DEPT. OF ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTES FAIL TO REACH THEIR PROGRAM GOALS Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs The Galvin Commission likewise reported that the DOE’s laboratories — the main tool by which the Department forwards its R&D agenda — has a poor record of achieving the goals DOE sets for it: The Task Force learned of significant examples of laboratory-developed technology being usefully transferred into industry and of the laboratories providing useful technical services to industry. However, the laboratories are not now, nor will they become, cornucopias of relevant technology for a broad range of industries. DEPT. OF ENERGY R&D EFFORTS ARE FRAUGHT WITH INCOMPETENCE Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs GAO’s findings were a scathing indictment of not only the report but the fundamental competence of the DOE itself: – “We found problems with the analyses DOE used to support the benefits cited in 11 out of the 15 cases we reviewed. These problems include basic math errors, problems in supporting economic analyses, and unsupported links between the benefits cited and DOE’s role or the technology. These problems make DOE’s estimates of the benefits of these cases questionable.” DEPT. OF ENERGY R&D EFFORTS ARE BANKRUPT IN THEIR RESULTS Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs Simply put, if the energy research and development investments made by the DOE were made by a private corporation, that company would have gone bankrupt long ago. DEPT. OF ENERGY RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS FAIL MOST OF THE TIME CHRIS WOODYARD, The Houston Chronicle, November 30, 1996, Pg. 1, TITLE: Alternative energy not paying off; Study says DOE projections high // VT98-acs The findings are proof that the government’s renewable energy research is wasteful, said a former electric power company executive who added up the savings in the the study he obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request. “”It sharply reduces the claims made in the past by the Department of Energy,” said Glenn R. Schleede of Reston, Va., now a consultant himself. “”I believe the DOE wastes money trying to develop and demonstrate techniques that are supposed to work in the private, competitive economy. I think they fail most of the time,” Schleede said. DEPT. OF ENERGY RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS ARE A WASTE OF MONEY CHRIS WOODYARD, The Houston Chronicle, November 30, 1996, Pg. 1, TITLE: Alternative energy not paying off; Study says DOE projections high // VT98-acs But Schleede [Glenn R. Schleede] said he remains dubious. “I think they are spending money on techniques that are not going to produce the benefits they claim and therefore they are wasting money,” he said. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-GENERAL RENEWABLE ENERGY ALWAYS FAILS TO BE BOTH ECONOMICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS WHICH MEET BOTH ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CRITERIA Utility Environment Report, December 20, 1996; Pg. 12, TITLE: PGE CEO STRESSES DIFFICULTIES OF FINDING RENEWABLES PROJECTS THAT ARE ECONOMIC // VT98-acs Portland General Electric is struggling to find renewable energy projects that meet both economic and environmental criteria. RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN STILL DO ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Contemporary advocates of renewable energy carefully note that no energy technology poses zero environmental cost. Technologies designed to tap diffuse renewable resources on a large scale can require broad areas of land and significant volumes of fresh water. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-UTILITY DEREGULATION UTILITY DEREGULATION WILL SEVERELY HINDER DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY UTILITY DEREGULATION WILL CHILL DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TONI HEINZL, WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER, Omaha World Herald, October 23, 1996; Pg. 1, TITLE: Harnessing the Wind Requires Tests First Experts Study Viability as Energy Source // VT98-acs Supporters of alternative energy research see some dark clouds on the horizon. Because of increased deregulation and competition between electric utilities, the search for alternative energy sources may fall victim to economic considerations, said OPPD President Fred Petersen. “Future discussion of renewable energy resources will be more driven by economics,” Petersen said. “It will put alternative energy at a disadvantage unless technological advances make it economically feasible.” Lara Levison, field coordinator for the Midwest Renewable Energy Project of the Union of Concerned Scientists, shares those concerns. She said the impact of deregulation can already be seen in states like California, which has long been a leader in using wind stations to supply electricity statewide. Across the country, the development of wind power has been stalled because of uncertainty about the future of electric utilities, she said. UTILITY RESTRUCTURING WILL MAKE EXPANSION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY USE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 15, 1996, TITLE: ISEIR Focus: Biomass Energy: Small Projects, Management Are Vital To Attracting Investors for Biomass // VT98-acs Restructuring of the electric industry will also make life harder for renewables. When the utilities are privatized, power will be a commodity. This will create a high hurdle for renewables to jump. Renewable can have a benefit over fossil and other fuels in terms of environmental benefits, but it will take government regulation against pollution to bring this forth, Truslow said. [Fredric Truslow, Rappahannock Investment Corp.] UTILITY DEREGULATION WILL NOT PROMOTE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY IN ENERGY, EVEN WITH EFFORTS TO ENCOURAGE RENEWABLE ENERGY ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs In sum, we have serious reservations about the environmental sustainability of an unregulated energy market. Reliance on some form of green pricing seems unlikely to achieve sustainability. Policy mechanisms such as portfolio standards and system benefits charges are in some ways more promising but, since they rely on the battered conventional regulatory framework, they may erode public favor for renewable energy. UTILITY DEREGULATION WILL DRY UP INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Other advocates fret that the greater risk associated with unregulated, competitive markets would deter investment in emerging renewable technology. They suggest that energy research would focus on short-term attempts to accumulate market share, disregarding technologies such as photovoltaics and hydrogen systems that have greater long-term potential to minimize social costs. CURRENTLY UTILITIES SELECT NEW GENERATING FACILITIES THROUGH THE IRP PROCESS, WHICH MAY BE BY-PASSED BY DEREGULATION, TO THE DETRIMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Many state public utility commissions now require utilities to select generating resources through integrated resource planning (IRP), a process that evaluates the total social cost of each option. Renewable energy advocates fear that restructuring the electric system would supplant IRP with a market operating strictly on the basis of short-term price to the purchaser. They contend that an unregulated market would ignore the many advantages of renewable energy that are difficult to quantify, yet surely not zero — for example, renewable energy does not depend on scarce or politically costly fuels, does not risk catastrophic malfunction, and has comparatively little effect on global climate. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-UTILITY DEREGULATION UTILITY DEREGULATION WILL SEVERELY HINDER DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY [P. 2] LEAVING UTILITY AFFAIRS STRICTLY TO THE MARKET WILL NOT MAXIMIZE WELFARE ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs We are as yet unconvinced that an electric system leaving energy decisions to the market -retail choice — could maximize social welfare. The renewable energy community therefore faces a difficult challenge. UTILITY RESTRUCTURING MAY REDUCE THE VALUE PLACED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs A restructured electricity system may undervalue renewable energy. We remain wary of unregulated markets, but urge the renewable energy community to begin considering how they could adapt to increasing customer choice. MOVING TO UTILITY DEREGULATION WILL SERIOUSLY DAMAGE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRESS Greenwire, March 10, 1997, TITLE: RENEWABLE ENERGY: IS DEREGULATION HURTING DEVELOPMENT? // VT98-acs Today, about 0.2% of the US’s total energy production comes from renewable sources, compared to about 0.4% in 1987. The move to deregulate the electric utility industry is a “major reason” for the decline, as utilities have become “preoccupied” with cutting costs and restructuring services as they face pending competition. STATE-BY-STATE UTILITY DEGREGULATION AND CHANGE IS A DISASTER FOR CONSUMERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT The Energy Report, February 10, 1997, TITLE: Renewable Energy Sustainable energy group urges Clinton to back renewables portfolio in bill // VT98-acs At stake, said the group, is nothing less than the nation’s future energy policy that will have long-term and far-reaching consequences for how the nation produces and uses energy. The current state-by-state approach to restructuring is yielding a patchwork of “inconsistent and potentially conflicting policies,” the group said in a letter to President Clinton. “This approach cannot satisfactorily address such federal concerns as compliance with provisions of the Clean Air Act, nuclear safety standards, international climate stabilization goals and regulation of interstate power sales.” UTILITY DEREGULATION BY ITSELF WILL NOT PRODUCE A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEM JUST BECAUSE IT USES A LITTLE MORE RENEWABLE ENERGY ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Will marketing opportunity suffice to produce a sustainable energy regime? Perhaps not. Customers will not buy products for their “greenness” alone, as demonstrated by the declining market share of small, fuel-efficient cars, perceived by many consumers as “unsexy” and no fun to drive. Even identifying the most environmentally suitable energy option for a given region can prove complicated (Thomas, 1996). And while some renewable energy firms support consumer choice, reasoning that winning even a tiny fraction of the national power market would enrich them terrifically, this ambitious business goal may be lamentably modest from an environmental point of view. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-MARKET FREE MARKET APPROACH TO RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL FAIL PURELY CAPITALISTIC, MARKET DRIVEN ECONOMY CAN DRIVE US TO ENERGY POLICY SUICIDE LESTER THUROW, Prof. Economics MIT, 1997, CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. XI-XII Capitalism does many things well, such as catering to individual wants, but it is myopic when it comes to long-term investments in its own future. Consider a situation where we know that what we do today will make the environment worse 50 years from now. What will a hard-nosed capitalist do using discounted net present values (the standard capitalistic decision-making algorithm)? The answer is nothing, since today’s value of a dollar’s worth of damage 50 years from now is zero. Fast forward 50 years. Once again the capitalist faces the issue of what he should do to stop tile world from getting environmentally worse another 50 years into the future, and once again the answer will be nothing. Fast forward another fifty years, and no matter how bad things are, it will still not be rational to take any remedial actions. Making a sequence of rational economic decisions, it is possible for a capitalistic market-driven economy to walk off an environmental cliff and commit collective suicide. WE NEED TO EXPERIMENT WIDELY ON RENEWABLE ENERGY; LEAVING IT TO THE FREE MARKET WILL ACHIEVE NOTHING Alan Tonelson and Beth Lizut, U.S. Business and Industrial Council Educational Foundation, The Commercial Appeal (Memphis), September 22, 1996, SECTION: VIEWPOINT, Pg. 4B, TITLE: Oil habit keeps United States entangled with Iraq // VT98-acs We should not throw billions at some panacea, but experiment widely on a small scale, discard what doesn’t work and redouble our efforts on technologies that seem promising. The notion that we would do better to leave such investment to the ”free market” is as silly as saying that America should have left the development of the interstate highway system to private enterprise. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-MARKET FREE MARKET APPROACHES FAIL TO CONSIDER EXTERNALITIES COSTS TO HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT ENERGY MARKETS FAIL TO INCLUDE THE REAL COSTS OF FUELS Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs As economists, agronomists, biologists and others become aware of the vast environmental consequences of energy choices, they complain that energy markets fail to include the cost of environmental externalities in fuel prices. THE PRESENCE OF HUGE EXTERNALITIES JUSTIFIES INTERVENTION IN THE FREE MARKET FOR ENERGY Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Standard economics contends that markets work efficiently when decision-makers bear all benefits and costs of their actions. Thus, the presence of externalities may justify policy intervention. ELECTRICITY PRICES THAT DO NOT CONSIDER ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE WILL DOOM RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE MARKETPLACE TONI HEINZL, WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER, Omaha World Herald, October 23, 1996; Pg. 1, TITLE: Harnessing the Wind Requires Tests First Experts Study Viability as Energy Source // VT98-acs “Electric utilities are looking strictly at the bottom line,” Ms. Levison said. [Lara Levison, field coordinator for the Midwest Renewable Energy Project of the Union of Concerned Scientists] “They look at their markets thinking all that counts is selling electricity the cheapest by the kilowatt-hour.” As a consequence, she said, utilities will lose sight of the environmental impacts of electricity, such as air pollution. “If their cost calculations do not reflect environmental consequences, the price of electricity may go down, but the costs for the damage to health and crops from acid rain might go up,” Ms. Levison said. THE MARKETPLACE FAILS IN FOSSIL FUELS BECAUSE THERE IS NO ADDED COST FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, November 11, 1996, Pg. 06, TITLE: A business praying for ‘cultural revolution’ // VT98-acs The market failure in this instance is the fact that fossil fuel prices do not take into account costs in terms of environmental damage and the depletion of natural resources. RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN’T COMPETE WITH FOSSIL FUELS ONLY BECAUSE FOSSIL FUEL COSTS DO NOT INCLUDE ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE The Reuter European Community Report, November 21, 1996, TITLE: EU SAYS RENEWABLE ENERGY GOOD FOR JOBS, IMPORTS // VT98-acs Obstacles to a wider use of renewables are related to market imperfections and the fact that prices of conventional fuels — coal, oil and gas — do not reflect the full environmental cost they impose on society, the Commission said. RENEWABLE ENERGY HURT BECAUSE IT HAS START UP COSTS WHILE FOSSIL FUELS DO NOT HAVE TO PRICE IN ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE EC Energy Monthly, December 13, 1996, TITLE: Renewables Green Paper focuses on ‘key’ tax incentives // VT98-acs Although the cost curves of the various renewable technologies are dropping rapidly (see graph), the report [European Union Green Paper report] says growth is being hampered by higher capital costs than for conventional fuel cycles. This is partly because ‘fuel and energy prices currently do not reflect the full cost, including the external cost implied for society for the environmental damage caused by the use of conventional fossil fuels.’ NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-MARKET MARKETS WILL NOT DEVELOP RENEWABLE ENERGY WITHOUT GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT REQUIRES INVESTMENT BY GOVERNMENTS H.E. CHRISTOS PAPOUTSIS, European Union, RAPID, September 16, 1996. TITLE: “COMMUNITY POLICY ON RENEWABLE SOURCES OFENERGY AND THE WORLD SOLAR SUMMIT PROCESS” // VT98-acs We need to mobilise our human and financial resources towards making the renewable energy sources a reality in each and every one of our countries. The implementation of hundreds of strategic and priority projects on a global level now has to be our first priority. This requires a great deal of financial resources. Given the significant advantages offered by renewable energy sources, we must put pressure on the international, national and regional financing mechanisms to allocate a significant part of their resources to the promotion of renewable energy applications. FEDERAL ASSISTANCE IS ESSENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Gary Lee, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post, September 25, 1996, Pg. A03, TITLE: Government Researchers Fear Budget Cuts Will Cool Solar Energy Work // VT98-acs According to Ervin [Christine Ervin, assistant secretary for renewable energy sources at the Energy Department] , the would-be budget-cutters are being penny-wise and pound-foolish. “Renewables, including solar, are a big growth industry where U.S. companies are leading and can only stay ahead with long-term development strategies,” she said. “But they do not have the resources for long-term investments. Federal assistance, usually in the form of partnerships, is essential.” BECAUSE OF THE POSTURING OF OIL SUPPLIERS, STRONG FEDERAL COMMITMENT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMERCIALIZATION Stefan Halper, is host of NET Television’s “World Wise” and a former White House and State Department official, The Christian Science Monitor, October 18, 1996, Pg. 18 // VT98-acs For the moment, suppliers – in a loose Faustian bargain – have made oil available at less cost than the alternatives. This has required decisionmakers to venture into the treacherous realm of supporting costly research and development efforts while oil seems (though isn’t) cheap – and while the lietmotif of the day’s politics is spending reduction. Yet like the Strategic Defense Initiative, the Apollo program, and the interstate highway system, this challenge can only be met by an exception to the market-based solutions we prefer. Strong federal support for the development of renewable energy resources is critical because research and development costs are high and payoff is often further down the road than makes commercial sense. We understood that in 1973, increasing funding in this area from virtually nothing to $ 700 million in 1981, and we benefited from a decade of important but low-profile progress. IT WILL TAKE INFUSIONS OF GOVERNMENT FUNDING TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY EFFECTIVELY James R. Udall, Sierra, January 11, 1997; Pg. 26; TITLE: Power to the people; are you willing to pay more for clean energy? // VT98-acs “As a society, we need to invest more of our money in renewable energy, ” agrees Dan Becker, director of the Sierra Club’s energy program. “We now spend more to subsidize the export of walnuts than we do on wind and solar power. You can’t solve the nation’s energy problems by yourself, no matter how deep in your pockets you dig.” IT WILL TAKE GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL COMMITMENTS TO MAKE SOLAR POWER A REALITY Sue Fishkoff, The Jerusalem Post, January 17, 1997, Pg. 8, TITLE: Rays of Hope // VT98-acs Until solar energy becomes a national priority, there won’t be funding to build solar power stations on a large-scale basis. And if there are only piece-meal projects, the cost of generating electricity through solar power will continue to be prohibitively high, discouraging folks from exploring the solar option. If you propose a solar plant that will cost a billion dollars, no one will want it, points out Dr. Amnon Yogev, director of the Weizmann Institute’s solar facilities. That’s where the government needs to step in. It will take long-term strategic thinking, rather than concentration on short-term profits, to earmark the necessary funding for research that would make solar energy cost effective, scientists say. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-GOVERNMENT BAD GOVERNMENT RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IS SO BAD THAT WE WOULD BE BETTER OFF BANNING IT FUNDING RENEWABLE ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTUALLY HUIRTS THE POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Lira Behrens, Inside Energy/with Federal Lands, December 9, 1996; Pg. 7, TITLE: DOE DENIES IT INFLATED BENEFITS OF EFFICIENCY, RENEWABLE ENERGY R&D // VT98-acs Schleede [Glenn Schleede, of Energy Market & Policy Analysis Inc.] further argued that ”it would be wise not to put much stock in the numbers beyond 2000. Technology produces marvelous benefits, but history shows that R&D efforts subsidized by the federal government tend to ‘arrive’ later, cost more, have fewer economic benefits, and have more environmental effects than the promoters of the technology claim when looking for subsidies.” He also suggested that the energy savings might occur even without DOE’s investments, with the efficiency improvements being made through market forces. WE SHOULD STOP ALL GOVERNMENT ENERGY R&D AND LEAVE IT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR Scott A. Hodge, Heritage Foundation Reports, April, 1997; Pg. 109, TITLE: The Heritage Foundation’s Proposal For: 270 Energy; (271) Energy Supply Research And Development Projects // VT98-acs Terminate all federal funding for energy supply research and development (R&D), including fossil fuel R&D, and privatize all government-owned laboratories engaged in this research. Transfer the environmental research program, along with DOE’s environmental waste cleanup program, to the Department of Defense. Rationale: Although Congress has cut overall spending on these research programs by over $ 500 million since FY 1995 — from roughly $ 3.7 billion in FY 1995 to $ 3.2 billion in FY 1997 — there are three good reasons to terminate them completely: First, by directly subsidizing private businesses, they fall under the broad category of “corporate welfare.” Second, they duplicate research already funded on a voluntary basis by the private sector. Third, they duplicate research funded by other government agencies. WE HAVE ALREADY WASTED $130 BILLION ON ENERGY RESEARCH — NOW IOS THE TIME TO STOP Scott A. Hodge, Heritage Foundation Reports, April, 1997; Pg. 109, TITLE: The Heritage Foundation’s Proposal For: 270 Energy; (271) Energy Supply Research And Development Projects // VT98-acs The federal government has spent over $ 130 billion in today’s dollars on energy supply research programs since the Department of Energy was created in 1977, and it has many expensive failures to show for this spending. TASK FORCE ON STRATEGIC ENERGY R&D AGREES — THIS IS NOT THE PLACE FOR GOVERNMENT Scott A. Hodge, Heritage Foundation Reports, April, 1997; Pg. 109, TITLE: The Heritage Foundation’s Proposal For: 270 Energy; (271) Energy Supply Research And Development Projects // VT98-acs Congress should take the advice of the Secretary of Energy’s Advisory Board which, in the June 1995 Final Report of its Task Force on Strategic Energy Research and Development, concluded: The Federal Government should not fund R&D that the private sector can and should do on its own. The fact that some types of R&D are not funded by the private sector is not, by itself, a reason for federal support. DEPT. OF ENERGY SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO DO ANY R&D Fred L. Smith, Jr. President The Competitive Enterprise Institute, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee // VT98-acs The DOE has no business engaging in energy R&D. This activity should be left entirely to the market. The argument that business will not develop new beneficial technologies and therefore government should take up the slack has no basis in fact. As noted in the CBO’s “Reducing the Deficit” report, major new technologies for enhanced oil recovery have come from private industry and not DOE. The most important fact that Congress must remember when thinking about R&D is that for a new technology to be socially beneficial it must be profitable. If it is profitable industry will develop it. If it is not, industry will not develop it nor should taxpayers pay to develop it. The CBO states in its report “DOE continues to develop technologies in which the market clearly has no interest.” For example “DOE spent hundreds of millions of dollars on coal-powered magneto-hydrodynamics– without any indication of who was interested in the product.” Moreover, much of this funding is a direct subsidy to corporate America. If the new Republican Congress wish to demonstrate their commitment to spending reductions they must cut all corporate subsidies. All government funded energy R&D should be abolished. NEGATIVE SOLVENCY-GOVERNMENT BAD GOVERNMENT RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IS SO BAD THAT WE WOULD BE BETTER OFF BANNING IT [P. 2] DEPT. OF ENERGY RENEWABLE ENERGY RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT IS SO FLAWED IT SHOULD BE ELIMINATED Lira Behrens, Inside Energy/with Federal Lands, December 9, 1996; Pg. 7, TITLE: DOE DENIES IT INFLATED BENEFITS OF EFFICIENCY, RENEWABLE ENERGY R&D // VT98-acs Schleede [Glenn Schleede, of Energy Market & Policy Analysis Inc.] has been a tenacious critic of the Energy Information Administration’s energy price forecasts and DOE’s use of those forecasts to ”overstate potential energy cost savings for consumers.” According to DOE, the conclusion of Schleede’s criticisms ”is invariably that DOE energy programs should be eliminated.” GOVERNMENT R&D MERELY SUBSTITUTES FOR PRIVATE R&D, SO NO NET R&D GAIN Fred L. Smith, Jr. President The Competitive Enterprise Institute, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee // VT98-acs Indeed, a recent book by Terence Kealey, The Economic Laws of Scientific Research, suggests that total R&D expenditures may not vary, despite varying national policies. He finds that total R&D spending seems to relate closely to national GDP. In nations with low government funded R&D, the private sector pays more of the bill. In nations where government provides ready funding, the private sector reduces its investments accordingly. In the United States and the UK more funding is from private sources; in France and Japan, more is from government. This argument for a strong displacement/substitution effect suggests that taxpayers gain little from political R&D expenditures; we simply create a new form of corporate welfare. PRIVATE SECTOR IS ALWAYS BETTER THAN THE PUBLIC SECTOR AT ENERGY R&D Fred L. Smith, Jr. President The Competitive Enterprise Institute, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee // VT98-acs Over time, this greater ability to target R&D resources has major impacts on the rate of technological progress. Empirical evidence that markets are better, for example, at encouraging energy efficiency over time than government abounds. Mikhail Bernstam 3 has shown in comparisons of East and West Germany and North and South Korea that where government intervention is relatively less energy efficiency is greater. He shows that per dollar of GNP, socialist economies use nearly three times as much energy as market economies. Former East Germany consumed 40 percent more energy per person and more than 3.5 times as much energy per dollar of GNP as West Germany. North Korea uses 70 percent more energy per capita than South Korea. Because market economies use resources more efficiently, they meet human needs with less environmental stress. In contrast, such federal energy projects as Synfuels have been disasters. POLITICAL R&D WILL ALWAYS BE LESS EFFECTIVE THAN PRIVATE R&D BECAUSE OF MOTIVATIONAL FACTORS Fred L. Smith, Jr. President The Competitive Enterprise Institute, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee // VT98-acs We don’t need government to tell us to save money. Markets (and the price signals that arise within them) allow society to better target scarce R&D talents and resources to maximum effect. Moreover, the entrepreneurs themselves have every reason to exercise due caution in seeking out those projects in which to invest their time and money; their economic welfare is directly affected by their success or failure. Also, unlike the political sector, private firms can gain great rewards by solving significant problems; a Bill Gates, for example, can become the richest person in the world by advancing society’s ability to process information. The lack of a residual claimant (that is, an individual that can garner such windfall returns) means that the political sector will be far more risk adverse and will invest fewer resources in high value, low probability projects. RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, NOT IN THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR Fred L. Smith, Jr. President The Competitive Enterprise Institute, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee // VT98-acs In recent years, pro-technology forces have too often ceded ground to anti-change Malthusian forces. Science and technology are “good” things and it is useful to point out that fact. Still, there are many good things that should not be done by government and there are many other things that the private sector does far better. Federally funded research and development falls into both these categories. ECOLOGICAL MODERNISM CRITIQUE This critique is applicable to all the cases run on this topic, because it is in reference to all scientific and technological solutions for all environmental problems. Ecological modernism, according to Hajer, refers to the method with which Western societies try to solve the environmental crisis through technological and scientific approaches. These solutions are usually based on how to clean up the messes which we have made instead of changing our lifestyles so that the problems won’t occur in the first place. This critique points out the limitations to scientific and technological perspectives, because they exclude other perspectives and other solutions which are necessary to have a complete understanding of the problems and comprehensive solutions. The links for this critique are extensive, some for general technical and scientific solutions and some for specific policies. I suggest using the link in the shell combined with another more specific link for the affirmative case. The shell is long, but each card is important to explain the story. This critique should not be used as a time suck for the other team, because it will only hurt you if you can’t kick out of it properly. This should not discourage you, because it has much value with this debate topic. I just suggest that you understand the position and not run contradictory arguments with it. Such things that you would not want to run with this critique are: topicality based on scientific or exclusionary definitions, case arguments based on scientific data, or the business confidence disadvantage. When you ask the judge to vote on advocacy in the third implication, you need to keep consistent advocacy. When you run the critique, it is your advocacy that scientific and technological solutions for the environment is bad. So don’t run arguments that say that science and technology are also good. The other extensions for the critique are to help build your story as to why you want to run the critique in the debate round. The implications in the shell set up these arguments. Remember to use the implications and to answer presses with the evidence. The C evidence provides the impacts of the critique: when the judge votes for an ecological modernistic case, s/he is choosing science over other more inclusive solutions. The only way to allow other alternatives to flourish is to base policy decisions on ethics and the rhetoric in the debate round. The judge votes to reject the affirmative and to vote for a ‘reflexive’ ecological modernization, which means the societal inquiry into technological solutions. You need to win this argument that the critique provides the alternative in order for the judge to have a positive reason to vote for the negative. As with all kritiks, the uniqueness is not evaluated in the same way as with disadvantages. The answer to “not unique” is not “this is a critique we don’t need uniqueness”. The answer is: “The critique is unique to the rhetoric of the affirmative in this round. The affirmative created the solution to the environmental crisis by advocating technological solutions through renewable energy practices, thereby constructing a social reality. Therefore, the affirmative is the unique reason why we need to deconstruct ecological modernism in every instance of policy making.” All of the evidence about ethical decision making and debate being the appropriate context to determine environmental rhetoric supports this argument. The one card at the end is an answer to this critique, but there are more answers. Any evidence saying that science and technology are good are also answers. This critique can also be discredited through argumentation of the implications and especially fiat. -ANNALEI McGREEVY ECOMODERNISM CRITIQUE SHELL A. RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS ARE EXTENSIONS OF ECOMODERNIST PERSPECTIVES Maarten Hajer, Author and teacher at Univ. of Munich, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT, AND MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics” edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne// jah, pp. 262-262 //VT98-am A second tendency we can discern is the technicisation of ecology. Perhaps the most significant development is taking place behind the scenes in the leading ecomodernist countries – the striking but little discussed reorientation that has taken place in the strategic planning of big multi-national firms such as Siemans, DASA and BMW. They are central in the ecomodernist discourse-coalition. They strive towards a set of clearly defined ecoindustrial innovations, they have a new idea of what the relevant actors are, and they carefully work towards a set of new institutional arrangements. They too can be seen using the threats of potential ecological disaster or climate catastrophes as a crowbar, but this time it is used to fulfill the promise of ‘intelligent’ traffic systems, ’smart’ highways, ‘intelligent’ energy savings technologies, renewable energies, and socially engineered behavioral changes. NGOs like Greenpeace, trade unions and politicians can, albeit for varying reasons, all be seen to help push ecological modernization in this direction. Similar developments are well under way in the United States, where the ‘Big Three’ car producers work together with firms like IBM, AT&T and the Federal government on multi-billion dollar plans to create this new ‘intelligent’ transport system. What this in fact amounts to is the amendment and extension of existing large technical systems, a tendency which will prove to be extremely powerful. B. DISCOURSE ON ENVIRONMENTAL DILEMMA CREATES OUR UNDERSTANDING. OPTIMAL POLICY REQUIRES REJECTION OF ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION Maarten Hajer, Author and teacher at Univ. of Munich, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT, AND MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics” edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne// jah, pp. 257-258 //VT98-am The historical narrative of this third perspective takes up the themes touched upon at the beginning of this chapter. It emphasizes that the ecological problem is not new. It observes that the ecological dilemma of industrial society is almost constantly under discussion, be it through different emblems. What these discussions are about, it argues, are in fact the social relationships between nature, society and technology. For that reason this perspective calls attention to the ’secondary discursive reality’ of environmental politics: there is a layer of mediating principles that determines our understanding of ecological problems and implicitly directs our discussion on social change. Hence it would investigate what image of nature, technology and society can be recognized in the ’story lines’ that dominated environmental discourse at the time of Limits to Growth, or during the confrontation between the state and radical social movements in the 1970s, or in the consensual story lines that dominate ecological modernization in the 1990s. What is the cultural meaning of the biospheric orientation that is central to present-day environmental discourse? In this respect it argues that ecological modernization is based on objectivist, physicalist, and realist assumptions, all of which are highly arbitrary. Story lines on global warming, biodiversity, or the ozone layer suggest the presence of the threat of biological extinction and assert that these problems should be taken as the absolute basis for an ecological modernization of society. C. DEBATES ABOUT ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS CONSTRUCTS REALITY AND CLOSES OFF POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS Maarten Hajer, Author and teacher at Univ. of Munich, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT, AND MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics” edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne// jah, pp. 256-257 //VT98-am The interpretation of ecological modernization as cultural politics takes the contextualisation of the practices of ecological modernization one step further. Here one is reminded of Mary Douglas’s classic definition of pollution as ‘matter out of place’. Her point was that debates on pollution are essentially to be understood as debates on the preferred social order. In the definition of certain aspects of reality as pollution, in defining ‘nature’, or in defining certain installations as solutions, one seeks to either maintain or change the social order. So the cultural politics perspective asks why certain aspects of reality are now singled out as ‘common problems’ and wonders what sort of society is being created in the name of protecting ‘nature.’ Ecological modernization here appears as a set of claims about what the problem ‘really’ is. The cultural politics approach argues that some of the main political issues are hidden in these discursive constructs and it seeks to illuminate the feeble basis on which the choice for one particular scenario of development is presently made. The structuring principle in this third interpretation is that there is no coherent ecological crisis but only story lines problematising various aspects of a changing physical and social reality. Ecological modernization is understood as the routinisation of a new set of story lines (images, causal understanding, priorities, etc.) that provides the cognitive maps and incentives for social action. In so doing ecological modernization ‘freezes’ or excludes some aspects of reality while manipulating others. Of course, reductions are inevitable for any effort to create meaningful political action in a complex society. The point is that one should be aware that this coherence is necessarily an artificial one and that the creation of discursive realities are in fact moments at which cultural politics is being made. Whether or not the actors themselves are aware of this is not the point. Implicitly, metaphors, categorizations, or definition of solutions always structure reality, making certain framings of reality seem plausible and closing off certain possible future scenarios while making other scenarios ‘thinkable.’ ECOMODERNISM CRITIQUE SHELL [P. 2] D. THE KRITIK HAS THE FOLLOWING IMPLICATIONS: 1. It is a case turn and solvency take out because renewable energy usage allows people to continue their high-consumption lifestyles and continue environmentally destructive practices by not challenging the system and justifying the scientific reality. 2. You reject the affirmative authors because the critique proves their assumptions are flawed and therefore their conclusions are flawed. With no theoretical basis you vote negative. 3. Fiat is illusory. The affirmative does not actually get passed if you vote for them. Therefore you vote on the advocacy which is most appropriate. Our advocacy is the critique. You must reject arguments that do not justify their assumptions. 4. Reject the policy maker paradigm. This is a debate not Congress. The only real world implications in this round are the effects of ideas upon our perceptions. Make a precedent by voting negative to educate the affirmative because we are going to change realist assumptions in this round and throughout the debate circuit. 5. When you vote on the critique which disproves the theory of their case, you don’t weigh impacts because the scenarios of the affirmative case are disproven. ECOMOD-LINK TECHNOLOGICAL FIXES LIKE THE AFFIRMATIVE ARE PURE ECOMODERNIST APPROACHES TECH SOLUTIONS TO ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS COMBAT SYMPTOMS NOT CAUSES Ulrich Beck, Prof. of Sociology @ U Munich ” Risk Society and the Provident State,” RISK. ENVIRONMENT, & MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne, 1996//jah p.38 //VT98-am But even where risks are nicked up. it is always only the symptoms that are combated, never the causes, because the fight against the risks of unrestrained business activity has itself become a major business. offering a new lease of life to scientific-technological dreams of unlimited expansion. In our society risk-fighting can be nothing else but business- the biggest it is the more impressive an reassuring. The politics of fear lubricates the wheels of consumerism and helps to ‘keep the economy going’ and steers away from the ‘bane of recession’. Ever more resources are to be consumed in order to repair the gruesome effects of yesterday’s resource consumption. Individual fears beefed up by the exposure of yesterday’s risks are deployed in the service of collective production of the unknown risks of tomorrow. ECOLOGICAL MODERNISM FACILITATES TECHNOLOGICAL DOMINATION OF HUMANITY RATHER THAN REJECTION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH Maarten Hajer, author and teacher at U Munich, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics,” RISK. ENVIRONMENT. & MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne, 1996//jah p.254//VT98-am In this perspective the ecological crisis is basically depicted as an institutional problem. The technocracy critique fiercely challenges the assumption that the dominant institutions can learn. How can it be that we try to resolve the ecological crisis drawing on precisely those institutional principles that brought the mess about in the first place: efficiency technological innovation, techno-scientific management. procedural integration and coordinated management? Who believes that growth can solve the problems caused by growth? Incidentally, which institutional learning processes followed the Green Revolution? Is sustainable development not the next ‘top-down’ model destined to bring evil while in name it intends to do good? This interpretation would also point at the ’structural’ aspects of the problem that are left unaddressed in the discourse of ecological modernization. What ecological Modernization fails to address are those immanent features of capitalism that make waste, instability and insecurity inherent aspects of capitalist development. Surely ecological modernization will en the leapfrog movement of capitalist innovation whereby production equipments, generations of workers or geographical areas are ‘written off’ periodically? In this perspective the fact that the World Bank is now in charge of the Green Fund is not seen as a sign of strength of the ‘ecological turn’ but precisely as evidence of the fact that ecological modernization is really about the further advancement of technocracy. Clearly, ecosoftware will not save the planet if capitalist expansionism remains the name of the game. This interpretation opens the black box of society and argues that the emergence of ecological modernization was to be seen in the context of the increasing domination of humanity by technology, where technology refers not merely to technical artifacts or machines but to social techniques as well. Consequently. the real problem at issue is how to stop the growth machine. Only then can one set about trying to remedy the very real environmental problems. POSITIVE SUM GAME TECH SOLUTIONS TO ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS PRECLUDES ALTERNATIVES Maarten A Hajer, Author and teacher at U Munich, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT & MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics,” edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne//jah, p. 2 6 3 //VT98-am From the perspective of the technocracy critique the danger of this technicisation of ecology is that ecological modernization short-circuits a superficial understanding of some emblematic ecological problems with a new technological commitment Essentially, microelectronic technologies are presented as the solution for the ‘juggernaut effect’. The cultural politics perspective observes that the discussion on alternative future scenarios is thus strangled m-a ‘double way: both the debates on information technology and on the ecological crisis are shifted aside to make way for ‘efficient’ and positive sum game solutions. ECOMOD-LINK TECHNOLOGICAL FIXES LIKE THE AFFIRMATIVE ARE PURE ECOMODERNIST APPROACHES [P. 2] SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CANNOT REVERSE ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS ONLY CAUSE NEW CRISES Vandana Shiva, director research foundation for science, technology, and natural resource policy, Biopolitics: An Ecological and Feminist Reader on Biotechnology, “Biotechnology development and conservation of biological diversity”, 1995, edited by Ingunn Moser and Vandana Shiva//jah p. 194 //VT98-am Ecologically and economically inappropriate science and technology can become causes of, not solutions to underdevelopment. Ecological inappropriateness is a mismatch between the ecological processes of nature which renew life support systems and the resource demands and impact of technological processes, which can lead to higher withdrawals of natural resources or higher additions of pollutants than ecological limits allow. In such cases they contribute to underdevelopment through the destruction of ecosystems. Economic inappropriateness is the mismatch between the needs of society and the requirements of a technological system. Technological processes:; create demands for raw materials and markets, and control over these becomes essential to the politics of technological change. Lack of theoretical cognition of the two ends of the technological process, its beginning in natural resources and its end in basic human needs, has created the current paradigm of economic and technological development which demands the increasing withdrawal of natural resources and generates the increasing addition of pollutants, while marginalizing and dispossessing increasing numbers from the productive process. These characteristics of contemporary scientific industrial development are the primary causes of current ecological, political and economic crises. The combination of ecologically disruptive scientific and technological systems in terms of resource-use efficiency and capability for basic needs satisfaction has created conditions that increasingly propel society towards ecological and economic instability, in the absence of a rational and organized response to arrest and curtail these destructive tendencies. ECOLOGICAL MODERNISM PRESENTS FALSE TECH SOLUTIONS TO REAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS Maarten A Hajer, Author and teacher at U Munich, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT & MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics,” edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne//jah, p. 253 //VT98-am The interpretation of ecological modernization as a technocratic project holds that the ecological crisis requires more than social learning by existing social organizations. Its structuring principle is that not nature but technology is out of control. In this context it draws upon the dichotomies dominant peripheral and material-symbolic. It holds that ecological Modernization is propelled by an elite of policy makers, experts and scientists that imposes its definition of problems and solutions on the debate An empirical example is the UN Brundtland Report. It is a ‘nice try’ but, as the Rio Conference and its aftermath show so dramatically, it falters because it is only able to generate global support by going along with the main institutional interests of national and international elites as expressed by nation states, global managerial organizations like the World Bank or the IMF, and the various industrial interests that hide behind these actors. Hence ecological modernization is a case of ‘real problems’ and ‘false solutions’. The material-symbolic dichotomy surfaces in the conviction that there is a deeper reality behind all the window dressing. Behind the official ‘rhetoric’ of ecological modernization one can discern the silhouette of technocracy in a new disguise that stands in the way of implementing ‘real solutions’ for what are ‘real problems.’ ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION IS A TECHNOCRATIC PROJECT Maarten Hajer, author and teacher at U Munich, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics,” RISK. ENVIRONMENT, & MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne, 1996//jah p. 256//VT98-am In all ecological modernization as a technocratic project is a critical interpretation that extends Habermas’ argument of modernization as the ‘colonization of the lifeworld to include Galtung’s concern over the colonization of the future. With the demise of the radical environmental movement its hope is set on the ‘triggering effect’ of a few ecological disasters. ECOMOD-LINK TECHNOLOGICAL FIXES LIKE THE AFFIRMATIVE ARE PURE ECOMODERNIST APPROACHES [P. 3] TECHNICAL ECOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS ARE BASED UPON CREATION OF MARKETS TO BE CONQUERED Maarten Hajer, author and teacher at U Munich, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics,” RISK. ENVIRONMENT. & MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne, 1996//jah p.263 //VT98-am Other examples of this tendency towards the technicisation of ecology are not difficult to find. Compared to the 1970s the ecomodernist policy-discourse has also caused a huge shift in the conceptualization of environmental problems by the NGOs. The shift in thinking about strategic solutions is of such an extent that an NGO like Greenpeace that once started off opposing nuclear tests, and is well known for its protection of endangered species, could recently announce its backing of the development of a ‘Green car;’ as well as it’s own plan to construct a tunnel under the Oresund, creating a rail link between Sweden and Denmark. The idea behind this latter initiative is to provide a readily available solution as an alternative to the long-standing plans of the Danish and Swedish governments to build a bridge for car traffic. Similarly, efforts are now being made in Japan to apply the latest freezing techniques to conserve species that are threatened with extinction, and, as a final example, German social scientists have found that in the debate on biotechnology ecology is now used as a justification for continued development in this area. Unlike in the early days, when biotechnology was still proposed as the ‘Eighth day of the Creation’, it is now constructed as an ecologically benign technology because it would require radically less resources (see Lau et al., 1993). This technicisation of ecology receives its social strength of course not primarily from its beneficial effects in terms of ecological improvements The technicisation of ecology is the translation of a social and moral issue into a market issue. It is based on the conviction that ecology is potentially, a new – and huge – market which is to be created e an, subsequently, to be conquered. Traditionally, sociologists would perhaps argue that this tendency is based on a great faith in the capacity to control side-effects in advance. Yet it is questionable whether that belief really was constitutive of this tendency in the first place. TECHNICAL EXPERTS HAVE TOO MANY BLIND SPOTS TO DETERMINE VALUES C. Richard Cothern, editor, Ph D. center for environmental statistics, Handbook for Environmental Risk Management: Values, Perceptions. & Ethics, 1996//cjj p. 16//VT98-am These are among the many reasons why, while it eon make a great deal of sense for narrow, technical questions to be delegated to narrow, technical experts, we also need to recognize that many of the most important questions about technology are neither narrow nor technical. The strength of the expert is in the technical details not the broader philosophy; the fob of the technical specialist is to implement societal al choices about values, not to make them. It may not be without reason that a popular definition describes an expert as someone who knows more and more about less and less; a more formal definition, offered by Yale University Professor Charles Perrow, is that an expert is “a person who can solve a problem better or faster than others, but who runs a higher risk than others of posing the wrong problem.” For deciding on value based questions, including the question of what is the right problem, perhaps the fundamental principle of a democracy has less to do with the technical expertise than with whether the answer reflects “the will of the governed.” It is important to recognize, however. that distortions of vision are created not just by values but also by blind spots-by blind spots that include not just “unknowns” but “unknown unknowns.” All of us, it turns out, have a significant risk of failing to understand how powerfully our view of the world can be shaped by the spot from which we do our viewing -the risk; of being prisoners of our own perspectives. Sometimes tile limitations on our vision do come from our values, which lead us to focus more intently on some parts of the picture than on others, but often, the problem is almost literally a matter of “blind spots”-of parts of the picture that are obscured from our view or that we simply fail to see. What makes the blind-spot problem so vexing is that. not only do we often fail to see something but that we fail to see that we fail to see. DEFINING SOLUTIONS TO ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS AS TECHNOLOGY PERPETUATES INEQUALITY BETWEEN THE NORTH AND SOUTH Kay Milton, lecture social anthropology, 1996, ENVIRONMENTALISM AND CULTURAL THEORY: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF ANTHROPOLOGY IN ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE//jah, p. 141 //VT98-am Similarly, by defining the solutions to environmental problems in terms of more development in the form of a revival of economic growth (WCED 1987: 49), Northern interests are seen by globalism’s opponents as seeking to ensure that the needs of the global economy, and therefore their own needs, will continue to be met. As growth is enhanced ostensibly in order to eradicate poverty, more communities will be made to feed their local resources into the global economy on terms dictated by the North thus extending the pattern of dependence established as a consequence of colonial expansion. By defining the solutions to environmental problems as technological, Northern interests are again seen as seeking to ensure the continuation of their power over the South. The globalist answer to the environment crisis is sustainable development, development which, by using the appropriate technologies, enables industry to make more while reducing its impact on the environment (WCED 1987). These technologies are assumed in the globalist model, to be produced by the developed world and transferred to the developing world (United Nations 1993a: 420). Opponents of globalism point out that this extends the dependence of the South implying that they cannot solve their environmental problems without technology and expertise produced by the North. ECOMOD-LINK AFFIRMATIVE RELIANCE ON STRICT SCIENCE IS AN AFFIRMATION OF ECOMODERNISM AUTHORITATIVE SCIENTIFIC AND POLICY DISCOURSES ON ENVIRONMENT MASKS REAL CAUSES OF CRISIS Scott Lash, Prof. of Sociology at Univ. of Lancaster, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT AND MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Ecology, Realism and the Social Sciences” edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne//jah, p. 1-2 //VT98-am This book thus begins not from the presupposition of too much silence about the environment, but from that of perhaps an overproduction of expertise on green issues. How. amidst the rising clamor to tell signal from noise? More specifically, it begins not so much from tile volume the overload of noise generated on things environmental, but rather from the mode in which such ‘green talk’ has been enunciated. It contends that the translation of things ‘environmental. into authoritative scientific and policy vocabularies occurs in ways which could be described as, amongst other things, epistemologically ‘realist” positivistic, disembedded, technological and cognitivist, and that it thus tends to mask important cultural. social and existential dimensions of the contemporary ‘environmental crisis.’ This is all the more serious because widespread public concern over the effects of human activity on the natural world has produced a broad consensus between scientists, policy makers, and other authoritative commentators about the need for more reliable information about the present condition of the environment, the status of current threats. and the imperative for appropriate responses. From such a consensus has emerged a number of large-scale intergovernmental research programs, global conventions and national policy commitments, ail too often oriented around overwhelmingly realist accounts of the environment. Even the social sciences, in their embryonic grapplings with the environmental agenda, have hitherto largely proceeded uncritically on the basis that the environment exists simply as a material substrate of the social, defined by scientific inquiry. The increasing role of social science in environmental policy knowledge generation has been attended by an intensification of the dominant idiom of social scientific knowledge positivistic, rational choice, economistic, behaviorist even – thus obliterating the possibility that the human conceptions reproduced in such ’scientific’ discourses may well he-part of that which has come to be crystallized as the modern environmental problem. FOCUS ON SUB POLITICS REVEALS INFLUENCE OF SCIENTISTS ON POLITICAL DECISIONS Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 38 //VT98-am What makes Beck’s analysis DIFFERENT from most proclamations of the techno-corporatist tendency in modern society is that he sees both tendencies as part of the emergence of what he calls ’sub politics’. SUB POLITICS refers to the structural displacement of important political decisions to other, formally non-political, realms. Politically important decisions are in fact often taken in places that are excluded from the definition of politics one would find in classical textbooks, such as the concealed worlds of laboratories of scientific councils (e.g. in the definition of what constitutes state-of-the-art technology or with the definition of exposure limits of certain chemicals). Sub politics also occurs when the activities of an environmental movement or a media campaign by some actors results in a redefinition of a political issue, which then becomes the input of the political process. Beck signals a growing discrepancy between the increasingly symbolic nature of activities of traditional politics and the increasing material effects of concealed and individualized sub political practices. Herewith sub politics is somewhat similar to a Foucaultian analysis of power, where one would give emphasis to the study of the combined effects of various micro powers or power/knowledge rather than to the study of the activities of a single ’sovereign’ . SCIENCE ENFORCES EXISTING PARADIGMS IT DOESN’T QUESTION John Horgan, Senior Writer, July 1996, SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN TECHNOLOGY REVIEW, “The Twilight of Science” Vol. 99; No. S//jgm, P. 50 // VT98-AM To be sure applied science will continue for a long time to come Scientists can keep developing versatile new materials; faster and more sophisticated computers genetic engineering techniques that make us healthier stronger longer lived, perhaps even fusion reactors that can provide energy with few environmental side effects (some dreams die hard). The question is, will these advances in applied science bring about any surprises any revolutionary shifts in our basic knowledge? Will they force scientists to revise the map they have drawn of the universe or the narrative they have constructed of its creation and history? Not if recent history is any indication. Applied science in this century has tended to reinforce rather than to challenge the prevailing theoretical paradigms. Lasers and transistors confirm the power of quantum mechanics, just as genetic engineering bolsters the validity of the e DNA-based model of evolution. ECOMOD-LINK AFFIRMATIVE RELIANCE ON STRICT SCIENCE IS AN AFFIRMATION OF ECOMODERNISM [P. 2] SCIENCE FAILS TO REALLY ADDRESS PROBLEMS Billie R. Dewalt, Director of the Center for Latin American Studies Prof. at Univ. of Pittsburgh, Summer 1994, HUMAN ORGANIZATION, Using Indigenous Knowledge to Improve Agriculture and Natural Resource Management,” Vol. 53, No. 2//Schnurer, p. 124 // VT98-am As practiced, these strengths have created problems for science. The reductionism of science often leads to a woeful ignorance of the wider context under which the particular phenomena under study occur. One problem is that the selection of phenomena to be studied is determined by the ability to break it down to “researchable pieces.” Complex systems and those characterized by myriad interactions are likely to be ignored. A second problem is that scientists often advocate the change of one part of that system without paying attention to the results for the overall system. A third problem is the tendency to focus only on the short term, not looking at what the potential long term implications of a change in technology might be. More problematic perhaps is that science has created a certain hubris among those who practice it. Many scientists have lost touch with the ultimate goals of what they are trying to accomplish because of their isolation. As Kloppenburg (1991-530) puts it: “As Cartesian science is elaborated and institutionalized in laboratories it loses touch with the local knowledge and everyday experiences . . ” At its worst, this attitude leads to an assertion that research is value free and that scientists need not be concerned about the ethical, social, or ecological sequences of their research. More benign, but potentially as dangerous, is that scientists denigrate the know ledge and experience of non-scientists. SCIENTIFIC DISCOURSE IS AN ANTHROPOCENTRIC PERSPECTIVE THAT FORMS A BASIS OF POLICY DECISIONS Carl G. Herndl and Stuart C. Brown, Prof. of English and Prof. of Rhetorical History and Criticism at New Mexico State, 1996, GREEN CULTURE//jah, p. 11-12 . //VT98-am The scientific discourse in the model represents the specialized discourse of environmental sciences. Within this discourse, nature is usually regarded as an object of knowledge constructed through careful scientific methodology. Because this discourse locates the human researcher as outside and epistemologically above nature, we call this anthropocentric discourse, one grounded in its faith in the human ability to come to know nature’s secrets. The immense cultural power of this discourse comes from our rationalist faith in science and in, the productivity of the scientific method. The rhetorical power of the discourse comes from the rhetorical notion of logos, the appeal to objective fact and reason. This is the discourse to which the policy makers often turn to ground their arguments; technical data and expert testimony usually represent the basis of policy decisions, often at the expense of other participants or other forms of rhetorical appeal. SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE IS A SOCIAL CONSTRUCT DEFINED BY POLITICAL INTEREST Sheila Jasanoff, Prof. science and technology studies, 1996, EARTHLY GOODS: ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIAL JUSTICE, “Science and Norms in Global Environmental regimes” edited by Hampson and Reppy//jah, p 175 //VT98-am The strain of skepticism deepens if we turn to recent academic studies of science and technology. Historical and sociological research over the last two decades has raised doubts about the separateness of science from society, and about the basis for its superior cognitive authority, by presenting accounts that stress the social origins of scientific claims. Scientific knowledge, according to a growing body of work, is a social construct in the sense that it is contingent on human interactions and susceptible to tile multiple influences of economics, ideology, culture, and political interest. Indeed. the processes of science often resemble those of politics. an} the similarities become most apparent when scientific activity draws near to the political arena through channels such as expert advice. In the limiting ease, the scientific controversies that so frequently erupt in the course of policy making simply retrace the patterns of mare enduring conflicts in society. SCIENCE IS NOT AN OBJECTIVE UNMASKING OF REALITY BUT KNOWLEDGE THAT CONSTRUCTS LIFE AND DEATH OPPORTUNITIES Ingunn Moser, research, fellow at center of technology and culture, Biopolitics: An Ecological and Feminist Reader on Biotechnology, “Introduction: Mobilizing Critical Communities and Discourse on Modern Biotechnology” 1995, edited by Ingunn Moser and Vandana Shiva//jah p.11 // VT98-am But if we follow the argumentation in the critical traditions that I have presented, the question can no longer be about misuse or ‘biased’ research – because science and technology are social relations, are culture. Not even science has direct and unmediated access to the world and reality as it ‘really’ is. None of us are so privileged as to have a position outside worlds in crisis, which guarantees critical distance and innocent – objective – knowledge. This does not mean that all is relative and just as good and true, that it is all about untranslatable language games and a play with representations. It means, on the contrary, that focus is shifted away from questions about the truth and validity of particular theories and towards questions of ethical and political implications and responsibility. As researchers, we do not simply consider, analyze, understand and solve problems ‘out there’; our knowledge production is a (re)productive force. Science does not simply reveal truth and unmask reality; it invents – or constructs – it too. I have tried to show and argue, by” presenting experiences and lessons of the past which we seem to forget, that knowledge is veritably constructive, creative and productive, and it produces and distributes chances of life and death. As Evelyn Fox Keller says, this is ‘nowhere so dramatically in evidence than in the successes of nuclear physics and molecular biology, that is, in the production of technologies of life and death’. Once we acknowledge this as a fundamental condition for all forms of knowledge production, the challenge is to develop ways of holding researchers responsible for their production of knowledge.:) ECOMOD-LINK RELIANCE ON INSTITUTIONAL SOLUTIONS AND GOVERNMENT REGULATION IS ECOMODERNIST ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION ASSUMES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION IS A MANAGEMENT PROBLEM THAT PRESENT INSTITUTIONS CAN DEAL WITH Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND ) THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 25 //VT98-am This type of environmental policy discourse lost much ground in governmental circles between 1972 and 1990. Indeed, the 1980s saw the emergence of a new policy-oriented discourse in environmental politics that could be labeled ‘ecological modernization’. In the most general terms ecological modernization can be defined as the discourse that recognizes the structural character of the environmental problematique but none the less assumes that existing political, economic, and social institutions can internalize the care for the environment. For this purpose ecological modernization first and foremost introduces concepts that make issues of environmental degradation calculable. Most notably, ecological modernization frames environmental problems combining monetary units with discursive elements derived from the natural sciences. This provides a common denominator through which costs and benefits of pollution can be taken into account. A second characteristic is the fact that environmental protection is portrayed as a ‘positivesum game’. Likewise, the main obstacles to more effective protection are suggested to be dilemmas of collective action: there would be no fundamental obstructions to an environmentally sound organization of society, if only every individual, firm, or country, would participate. Environmental protection thus becomes a management problem. A third and related characterization that economic growth and the resolution of the ecological problems can, in principle, be reconciled. Hence, although some supporters may individually start from moral premisses, ecological modernization basically follows a utilitarian logic at the core of ecological modernization is the idea that pollution prevention pays. INSTITUTIONAL SOLUTIONS EXEMPLIFY ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 3 //VT98-am This policy discourse of ecological modernization recognizes the ecological crisis as evidence of a fundamental omission in the workings of the institutions of modern society. Yet, unlike the radical environmental movements of the 1970s, it suggests that environmental problems can be solved in accordance with the workings of the main institutional arrangements of society. Environmental management is seen as a positive-sum game: pollution prevention pays. It is easy to see why ecological modernization would quickly conquer the hearts of politicians and policy-makers. Yet one may, of course, question some of its assumptions. On a theoretical level one can show the kind of issues and uncertainties that ecological modernization leaves unaddressed. ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION IS BASED ON INSTITUTIONAL PRINCIPLES THAT DO NOT DEMAND STRUCTURAL CHANGE Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 32 //VT98-am A third and related reason is that ecological modernization explicitly avoids addressing basic social contradictions that other discourses might have introduced. Ecological modernization does not call for any structural change but is, in this respect, basically a modernist and technocratic approach to the suggests that there is a techno institutional fix for the present problems. Indeed, ecological modernization is based on many of the same institutional principles that were already discussed as solutions in the early 1970s: efficiency, technological innovation, techno-scientific management, procedural integration, and coordinated management. It is also obvious that ecological modernization as described above does not address the systemic features of capitalism that make the system inherently wasteful and unmanageable. The leap-frog movement of capitalist innovation, periodically writing off generations of production equipment, geographical areas, and generations of workers, are not addressed under ecological modernization. On the contrary, as the above suggests, ecological modernization might itself cause the writing off of generations of production equipment and industrial works. ECOMOD-LINK RELIANCE ON INSTITUTIONAL SOLUTIONS AND GOVERNMENT REGULATION IS ECOMODERNIST [P. 2] IMPROVED OPERATION OF INSTITUTIONS CAN NOT SOLVE GLOBAL ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS Joseph Camilleri, Prof. politics, 1996, EARTHLY GOODS: ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIAL JUSTICE, “Impoverishment and the National State” edited by Hampson and Reppy//jah, p 123 //VT98 -am Before proceeding to a detailed examination of state structures, functions, and capabilities, it may be useful to sketch in broad outline the dimensions of the twin problems of ecological degradation and socioeconomic inequality. Human modification of the environment in itself is not new. What is new is that such modification is now likely to have global and possibly irreversible consequences, which may in time threaten the long-term habitability of the planet. Considerable uncertainty, however, surrounds the extent and likely trajectory of the major environmental problems that the scientific community has recently identified. The threats posed by global climate warming, ozone layer depletion, acid precipitation, tropical deforestation, and loss of species diversity have become familiar enough, but the institutional implications of ambiguous to say the least. Can these problems be resolved by existing institutions simply operating more efficiently, that is, using more sophisticated technological or managerial know-how? Or might it be the case that environmental change, precisely because it has assumed global proportions. IT is no longer amenable to traditional institutional practices which have tended to evade negative consequences (e.g., through migration) or to transfer them either to other places (e.g. downwind, downstream, to other countries or other regions) or to another time (namely, to succeeding generations) ? INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOCUSES ON ENGINEERING RATHER THAT HUMANITY – ONLY HOPE IS DISMANTLING CONSUMPTION Maarten Hajer, Author and teacher at U Munich, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT AND MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics” edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne//jah, p. 255 //VT98-am The technocracy critique argues that the sciences have in fact to a large degree been incorporated in this technocratic project. The institutional history of the discipline of systems ecology is used as a case in point (see Kwa, 1987). As historians of science have shown, it was a paradigm on its way out that during the 1960s suddenly got new institutional momentum as NASA engineers and politicians showed an interest in the science that could be integrated in the context of a wider cybernetic perspective. Likewise, the consequence of the prevailing institutional framework is that engineers develop only those technologies that enhance control over nature and society rather than achieve ecological effects while making society more humane. The social sciences are similarly implicated and are called upon as ’social engineers’ who only work to help achieve preconceived policy goals. Alternatively, new institutional arrangements in academia and ’science for policy’ should be developed. ‘Counter experts’ should be able to illuminate the ‘technocratic bias’ in the official scientific reports. Likewise, more attention, credit and space should be given to those engineers who have been working on ’soft energy paths’ that would show the viability of decentralized alternatives. Finally, the social sciences should not work on puzzle-solving activities like changing individual consumer patterns but on the analysis of the immanent forces that keep the juggernaut running towards the apocalypse, so that it might be possible to steer it or preferably to stop and dismantle it. ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION DISCOURSE DRAWS ON INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS WHILE AVOIDING SOCIAL ISSUES Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 35 //VT98-am Depending on the discursive framing of specific emblems, the ecological dilemma. Potentially calls into question larger institutional practices. Above we observed that ecological modernization at least partly seems to draw on the very same institutional arrangements that brought the ecological crisis : conceptually relies heavily on science, technology, and expert-led processes of change. We also observed that ecological modernization is a discourse that seeks to avoid addressing basic social contradictions. However, many theorists of the environmental conflict would suggest that it is questionable whether those basic social contradictions can be kept out of the debate on contemporary environmental problems. ECOMOD-LINK RELIANCE ON INSTITUTIONAL SOLUTIONS AND GOVERNMENT REGULATION IS ECOMODERNIST [P. 3] GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS ARE OUT OF TOUCH WITH SOCIETY Robin Grove-White, Director of the Centre for the Study of Environmental Change, ” Environmental Knowledge and Public Policy Needs,” RISK. ENVIRONMENT. & MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, edit” by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne, 1996//Jah p.270//VT98-am However, most of the analyses in this book imply that some of the most important implications of the whiriligig economic forces now transforming societies around the world are poorly appreciated by our public institutions. For example, Beck and Adam (both this volume) argue that the unfamiliar character of such changes is now making them increasingly impossible for our institutions to control or even to anticipate: whilst Maguire and Berking (both this volume) suggest that the transformations are now such as to reach into – indeed directly to challenge – people’s very sense of their own identities, at the most personal levels. Yet for the most part’ governments, with their armies of subordinate regulators and bureaucracies appear to be driving blind, when it comes to understanding such novel cultural dynamics, now being produced m the circumstances of (let us call it) ‘late modernity.’ ECOLOGICAL MODERNISM ASSUMES MANAGEMENT BY NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS IS EFFECTIVE Maarten A Hajer, Author and teacher at U Munich, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT & MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics,” edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne//jah, p.253 //VT98-am In all, in this interpretation ecological modernization appears as a moderate social project. It assumes that the existing political institutions can internalize ecological concerns or can at least give birth to new supranational forms of management that can deal with therelevant issues. Hence it is a sign of the strength and scope of ecological modernization that the World Bank has become the manager of the Green Fund – it assumes that national governments can rethink their sectoral policies and that the network of corporatist interest groups can be altered in such a way that it becomes sensitive to ecological matters. EPA’S TECHNOCRATIC APPROACH TO ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS LIMITS ABILITY TO SOLVE COMPLEX PROBLEMS C. Richard Cothern, editor, Ph.D. center for environmental statistics, Handbook for Environmental Risk Management: Values Perceptions. & Ethics,1996//cjj p. 95 //VT98-am Although this example may seem extreme, the fact is that our environmental regulatory system, has done little to enable regulators to respond to public concerns and virtually nothing to recognize the essential role of community values in the shaping of environmental solutions. The national environmental laws have divided our environment and our environmental agencies into compartments — air, water, soil, waste. For each of these compartments specific pollutants of concern have been identified and a risk-based approach has been developed as the basis for a complex permitting and enforcement system. While many positive environmental results have been realized, the risk specific technocratic approach has Balkanized our national efforts and limited the ability of our agencies to respond to many complex environmental issues. This is not news. The trend was recognized by the EPA Science Advisory Board in their landmark report, Reducing Risk: Setting Priorities and Strategies for Environmental Protection: “Because most of EPA’s program offices have been responsible for implementing specific laws, they have tended to view environmental problems separately … and questions of relative seriousness or urgency have remained unasked. Consequently, at EPA here has been little correlation between the relative resources dedicated to different environmental problems and the relative risks posed by these problems. ” ECOMOD-LINK RELYING ON MARKET-BASED COST BENEFIT SOLUTIONS IS AN AFFIRMATION OF ECOMODERNISM ECOLOGICAL MODERNISM TRIES TO REMEDY ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION BY STIMULATING PRODUCTION, THE CAUSE OF DESTRUCTION IN THE FIRST PLACE Maarten Hajer, teacher at U Munich, 1996; RISK, ENVIRONMENT AND MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, p. 249 // VT98-am Radical greens or deep ecologists will argue that the ecological crisis cannot be overcome unless society breaks away from industrial modernity. They might maintain that what are needed is a new ‘place bound’ society with a high degree of self sufficiency. This stands in contrast to ecological modernization which starts from the conviction that the ecological crisis can be overcome by technical and procedural innovation. What is more, it makes the ‘ecological deficiency’ of industrial society into a driving force for a new round of industrial innovation. As before, society has to modernize itself out of the crisis. Remedying environmental; damage is seen as a ‘positive sum game’: environmental damage is not an important impediment for growth; quite the contrary, it is the new impetus for growth. In ecomodernist discourse environmental pollution is framed as a matter of inefficiency, and producing ‘clean technologies’ (clean cars, waste incinerators, new combustion processes) and environmentally sound technical systems (traffic management, road pricing, cyclical production management, etc.), it is argued, will stimulate innovation in the methods of industrial production and distribution. In this sense ecological modernization is oriented precisely towards those forces that Schumpter once identified as producing the ‘fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion.’ ECONOMISTS AND ENGINEERS SELECTIVELY INTERPRET ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS TO APPLY PET SOLUTIONS Lamont C. Hempel, Prof. of Political Science at the Claremont Graduate School. 1996, ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE//jah, p. 53 //VT98-am To the extent that this is a conscious intent, we can speak of strategic definition or selective interpretation , especially by those who have a favored or “pet” solution and merely need to find the right kind of environmental problem to which it can be attached. Economists for example, who favor market-based solutions to environmental problems, typically view environmental damage as a result It of externalities (unpriced pollution) and other sources of market distortion. By contrast, engineers who see inadequate systems planning and design; tend to define environmental problems in ways that at call for technological fixes. Engineers typically trace the source of the problem to technical design flaws, such as improper sizing, placement, or coupling of waste processing technology. ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION USES LANGUAGE OF BUSINESS AND PROVIDES SOLUTIONS CONSISTENT WITH CAPITALIST PRODUCTION Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 31 //VT98-am Secondly, ecological modernization suggests a positive-sum solution to what had until then been seen as a zero-sum problem. Governments are well aware of their functional dependency relationship with business and generally realize that calling a halt to environmental degradation would normally involve imposing restrictions on industry. Ecological modernization, however, uses the language of business and conceptualizes environmental pollution as a matter of inefficiency, while operating within the boundaries of cost-effectiveness and administrative efficiency. Ecological modernization is the positive approach to environmental policy: environmental improvement does not have to be secured within the constraints of capitalist market logic (which would be a negative argument), ecological modernization suggests that the recognition of the recognition of the ecological crisis actually constitutes a challenge for business. Not only does it open up new markets and create new demands; if executed well, it would stimulate innovation in methods of production and transport, industrial organizations. Consumer goods, in short. all those elements that Schumpter once identified as the forces that produce the ‘fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist en fine in motion.” In this sense the discourse of ecological modernization puts the meaning of the ecological crisis upside-down what first appeared a threat to the system now becomes a vehicle for its very innovation. Indeed, by now it is obvious that activities like waste management, pollution abatement, and risk management and insurance have themselves become big business. ECOMOD-LINK RELYING ON MARKET-BASED COST BENEFIT SOLUTIONS IS AN AFFIRMATION OF ECOMODERNISM [P. 2] MARKET MECHANISMS TYPIFY INSTRUMENTALIST VIEW OF RATIONALITY Richard Cothern, editor, Ph. D. center for environmental statistics, 1996, HANDBOOK FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: VALUES, PERCEPTIONS, AND ETHICS//cjj, p. 186 //VT98-am Defenders of the land ethic, along with many other environmental philosophers, contrast their views with a kind Of crude economic understanding of rationality similar to the anthropocentric view described above. This crude view is characterized as an instrumentalist conception of rationality, in which reasons are restricted to maximizing the satisfaction of one’s preferences and desires. The preferences and desires themselves remain unexamined. The idea of “consumers sovereignty,” which is popular among many economists, calls for taking individual preferences and desires as they are given, and it justifies market mechanisms (as well as intervention and regulation in order to correct market failures)) for determining the allocation of resources that most efficiently and equitably satisfies individual preferences. The objection to this instrumentalist view of rationality, as we have noticed, is an objection to treating nature and the environment strictly as means for satisfying these preferences. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS IGNORES DISTRIBUTIONAL JUSTICE AND FUTURE GENERATIONS C. Richard Cothern, editor, Ph.D. center for environmental statistics, Handbook for Environmental Risk Management: Values Perceptions. & Ethics, 1996 // cjj p. 28 /VT98-AM CBA also ignores distributional effects of the decision and therefore is often inconsistent with concepts of distributive justice. Similarly, CBA often does not take into account pollution which transcends natural boundaries. CBA rarely takes into account the rights of future generations or non-human species. When future benefits are considered by CBA, they are most often valued by a process called discounting, which assumes that future impacts are less valuable to present decision makers than immediate impacts. In this way CBA undervalues arguable duties that present generations have not to harm future generations. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS IS ANTHROPOCENTRIC– COMMODIFYING ALL FORMS OF LIFE C. Richard Cothern, editor, Ph.D. center for environmental statistics, Handbook for Environmental Risk Management: Values. Perceptions. & Ethics, 1 996//cjj p. 128 //VT98-am Moreover, the utilitarian approach contained in CBA is a strongly anthropocentric one which attempts to reduce value to a single measure to allow the economist to optimize the benefit to society through the CBA-based decision. The measure of value in CBA is the willingness of humans to pay for environmental entities in market situations. Plants,, animals, and other environmental entities are in this way treated as commodities available for human consumption. By making willingness to pay the measure of value, CBA approaches are antithetical to clinical positions that hold that certain plants, animals, and environmental entities have intrinsic value. SEEING ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION AS AN “EXTERNALITY” FOLLOWS FROM ECOMODERNIST PARADIGM Maarten A Hajer, Author and teacher at U Munich, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT & MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics,” edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne/jah, p.251 //VT98-am The central assumption of this paradigm is that the dominant institutions indeed can learn and that their learning can produce meaningful change. Following that postulate the ecological crisis comes to be seen as a primarily conceptual problem. Essentially, environmental degradation is seen as an ‘externality’ problem, solution: as economists we have too long regarded nature as a ’sink’ or as a free good; as national politicians we have not paid enough attention to the repercussions of collective action and have failed to devise the political arrangements that could deal with ‘our’ global crisis. Likewise, scientists have for too long sought to understand nature in a reductionist way; what we need now is an integrated perspective. Time and again nature was defined ‘outside’ society, but further degradation can be prevented if we integrate nature into our conceptual apparatus. Fortunately, the sciences provide us with the tools needed: systems theory and the science of ecology show us the way. This understanding of the ecological crisis is supported by collective action problems like the greenhouse effect, acid rain, or the diminishing ozone layer. Basically, the institutional learning perspective would define ecological modernization as the perception of nature as a new and essential subsystem and the integration of ecological rationality as a key variable in social decision making. The hardware can be kept but the software should be changed. ECOMOD-LINK CONTEMPORARY GLOBAL WARMING STORIES REPRESENT ECOMODERNIST THOUGHT IPCC EXEMPLIFIES POWER OF EXCLUSION SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE POSSESSES Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS // jah, p.278 //VT98-am A third important strand of criticism comes primarily out of the social constructivist tradition in the sociology of science. It criticizes the alleged indeterminacy in scientific knowledge claims vis-a-vis their evidential basis. Sociologists of science like Wynne, Shackley, or Kwa have shown that the approach of the working groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change favors a particular sort of scientific approach that unnecessarily leads to a centralization of knowledge. an unnecessary reduction of flexibility regarding the inclusion of new evidence, and effectively prevents the application of the knowledge acquired for the development and assessment of various policy scenarios. Their analyses suggests that the scientific consensus around the issue of global warming is the product of the specific way in which this problem is constructed by an identifiable set of actors, institutions, and technologies. Working in a similar vein, Liberatore has illuminated that the interaction of scientific research and policy-oriented funding constructs global environmental problems in such a way that they allow for certain political interventions. SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS ON GLOBAL WARMING ARE BASED ON FLAWED MODELS THAT EXCLUDE PERSPECTIVE OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Judith Reppy, Prof. science and technology studies, 1996, EARTHLY GOODS: ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIAL JUSTICE, edited by Hampson and Reppy//jah, p. 288 //VT98-am NEVERTHELESS, an IPCC Report (Supplement 1992) notes soberly that there is a long way to go before even some of the most basic science is in place.” A brief sample of what is not known includes the following. ‘The consensus models are still unable to account for something like certainties m quantifying methane emissions from individual sources. The relationship between anthropogenic and natural sources of nitrous oxides and their effect on the increased abundance of atmospheric nitrous oxide is still unclear. And there is inadequate understanding for the purposes of modeling and prediction of: clouds, oceans, polar ice sheets, land-surface processes and feedbacks, and so on. The ability of the developed country scientific establishment to reduce most of these uncertainties within the next five years to the point where clear policy responses could be directly related to the outcomes of modeling and predictive efforts is dubious. Moreover, regional impact studies from the climate models will continue to be imprecise into the foreseeable future, for some fundamental physical reasons. Perhaps even more pertinent here is the role to be played by developing-country science. The developing-country capacity to be part of the scientific project, which is going to be instrumental in making the Framework Convention work, is best described by a paragraph in the Executive Summary of the IPCC Special Committee: The factors identified by the Special Committee as inhibiting the full participation of developing countries in the IPCC process are insufficient information in sufficient communication. limited human resources, institutional difficulties, and limited financial resources.” The scientific uncertainties, then, will be matched or exacerbated by the formidable obstacles to decent inventorying, monitoring, and policing of local activities. That is, even if developing countries sign agreements, how can they ensure that these are lived up to, even with the best will in the world? The alternative prospect of an international monitoring or policing agency is already worrisome, for obvious reasons, to developing countries. REGULATORY RESPONSES TO GLOBAL WARMING DEMONSTRATE LIMITS OF ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION STORY LINES Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 279//VT98-am Now, one may of course argue that the fact that the phenomenon of global warming is circumscribed by uncertainty is hardly a ground for complacency. Are there not some criteria of plausibility that we could draw on, or is there not something like a no regret scenario according to which we should do whatever we can so as to at least prevent possible catastrophes? The point here is that the dictum ‘if it does not do good it does not do harm either’ does not hold. Of course, a radical reduction of energy levels in the OECD countries seems a sensible strategy (which is, incidentally, one of the reasons why environmental NGOs have jumped on the issue of global warming: it seemed a window of opportunity to enhance the credibility of what they had always been arguing). The uneasiness comes from the fact that the case of global warming seems to indicate that the latest constructions of the environmental problematique reinforce a technocorporatist tendency where policy-making practices aim to control and subsequently solve a specific set of pre-defined problems rather than leaving space for competing problem definitions and rival scenarios of resolution. Although a notion like sustainable development can broadly meet with sympathy we can observe how some fixed regulatory regimes seek to close themselves off from criticism and set about to institutionalize their own particular program of pre-conceived solutions under that very heading. The question is whether alternative patterns of institutionalization car be conceived that would do more justice to the many different concerns of the participants in this coalition around eco-modernist story-lines like sustainable development and would be able to keep a debate going on the meaning of ecological modernization in specific cases. ECOMOD-EXTENSIONS ECOMODERNISM EXCLUDES OTHER PERSPECTIVES ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION STORY LINES SIMPLIFY ENVIRONMENTAL DEBATE TO CLOSE OFF QUESTIONS OF THE SOCIAL ORDER Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 65 //VT98-am Ecological modernization can be used to illustrate the concept. Ecological modernization is based on some credible and attractive story lines: the regulation of the environment problem appears as a positive sum game; pollution is a matter of inefficiency; nature has a balance which should be respected anticipation is better than cure; and sustainable development is the alternative to the previous path of defiling growth. Each story line replaces complex disciplinary debates. What is more, story lines imply arbitrary confinements; they often conclude debates that are still open or imply a marked move away from the academic consensus. However, certain actors are attracted to the idea of ecological modernization that, as a discourse, presents a new set of ideas, concepts, and categorizations through which they can give meaning to the physical and social realities that are implied in the contemporary environmental conflict. The influence of the new policy discourse depends on the cognitive power of its story-lines, but also on its attractiveness. As I showed in Section 1.2, the environmental issue potentially raises rather substantial questions about the social order. Yet here ecological modernization suggests that the environmental issue can be remedied without having to completely redirect the course of social development. DOMINANT KNOWLEDGE EMPIRE HAS DISCREDITED ALTERNATIVES WITH A BRUTAL CAMPAIGN OF FALLACIOUS PROPAGANDA Smitu Kothari, Director and editor of Lokayan in Delhi, 1996, EARTHLY GOODS: ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIAL JUSTICE, “Social Movements, Ecology and Justice” edited by Hampson and Reppy//jah, p 164- 165 //VT98-am Devising alternatives to the PERVASIVE knowledge empire of development is a challenging task indeed. The primary orientation of the development industry in the last fifty years has been to delegitimate such possibilities. While the dominant development discourse might have accepted, at least marginally, other economic or political systems, on the question of knowledge it has left little room. Other traditions of knowledge, which were not part of the dominant industrial-scientific world view, were slowly and at times brutally) rendered obsolete or irrelevant, or at best considered as a residual factor in the march of progress. At worst, other traditions of knowledge were east as obscurantist or superstitious with no basis in a rational world. The survival and dynamism of subaltern traditions of knowledge is further weakened by the common tendency – even among those who work with/for them of treating subaltern consciousness as one that is on the verge of being co-opted or coerced by ruling ideas.’ That is why it is probably easier to critique dominant ideologies than to regenerate subaltern consciousness. SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE MARGINALIZES THE LOCAL PERSPECTIVE Kay Milton, lecture social anthropology, 1996, ENVIRONMENTALISM AND CULTURAL THEORY: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF ANTHROPOLOGY IN ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE//jah, p. 192-193 //VT98-am Opponents of globalism argue that the imperialism of western science has replaced sustainable ways of using the environment based on practical experience with unsustainable managerial regimes based on scientific theory. They also argue that the dominance of western science continues in the debate about how to conserve the environment. Knowledge derived from scientific surveillance and monitoring of the Earth is seen as a more reliable basis for environmental management than knowledge derived from local experience. CORPORATIONS ARE INFLUENCING MEDIA TO BELIEVE THAT ONLY RATIONAL SCIENCE SHOULD GUIDE POLITICS AND THAT ENVIRONMENTALISTS DECISIONS ARE BASED ON EMOTIONS AND BELIEFS JOEL BLEIFUSS. Senior Editor, OCTOBER 10, 1995, IN THESE TIMES “With Science on Their Side” p. 12 // VT98-am Whelan, a widely quoted science “expert” funded by the Chemical Manufacturers Association and other corporate interests, is not alone in her crusade against public-interest “terrorists.” In 1993, Garrey Carruthcrs founded the Advancement of Sound Science Coalition to aid “corporations or industry groups that are confronted by unsound science.” Carruthers, a former Republican governor of New Mexico, argues that “science used to guide public policy decisions should be based on sound principles, not on emotions and beliefs considered by some to be politically correct.” One of the missions of groups such as Whelan’s and Carruthcrs’ is to convince the media that environmentalists are motivated solely by politics and that industry is driven by rational science. “We need to be deeply concerned about the welfare of our families when public health policy is set not by scientists hut by political operatives and special interests with axes to grind and agendas to fulfill,” writes Whelan. ECOMOD-EXTENSIONS THE CRITIQUE PROCESS IN THIS ROUND WILL LEAD TO ALTERNATIVES CAN CHANGE THE WORLD BY CHANGING THE MINDS OF TWO PEOPLE G. Tyler Miller, Prof. Environmental Science, 1990, LIVING IN THE ENVIRONMENT: AN INTRODUCTION TO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE//jah, p. 617 //VT98-am You can change the world by changing the two people next to you. For everything, big or little, that you decide to do to help sustain the earth, try to convince two others to do the same thing and persuade them in turn to convince two others. Carrying out this doubling or exponential process only 28 times would convince everyone in the United States. But it is only necessary to have about 5% to 10% of the people in a community, state, or country actively involved in order to bring about change. The national and global environmental movement is nearing this critical mass and needs your help. ECOLOGICAL MODERNISM PROVIDES REAL CHANGE IN POLICY MAKER’S THINKING Maarten Hajer, Author end teacher at U Munich, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics,” RISK, ENVIRONMENT. & MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne, 1996//jah p. 249 // VT98-am How should we interpret ecological modernization? Is it just rhetoric, green speak’ devoid of any relationship with the ‘material’ reality of ongoing pollution and ecological destruction? Here we have to differentiate. The empirical evidence of the developments in environmental policy making and product-innovation in Germany and Japan, the experience of the Dutch ‘environmental policy planning’ approach, or the emergence of Clinton’s and Gore’s twin-win’ strategy in environmental and conservation issues (see for example Cockburn, 1993), shows that the least we can say is that ecological modernization has produced a real change in thinking about nature and society and in the conceptualization of environmental problems in the circles of government and industry. This is what I call the condition of discourse structuration. One of the core ideas of ecological modernization, ‘integrating ecological concerns into the first conceptualization of products and policies’, was an abstract notion in the early 1980s but is by now a reality in many industrial practices. Especially in OECD countries, ecomodernist concepts and story lines can now be seen to act as powerful structuring principles of administration and industrial decisionmaking from the global down to the local levels. It has produced a new ethics, since straightforward exploitation of nature (without giving thought to the ecological consequences) is, more than ever before seen as illegitimate. DECONSTRUCTION OF REALIST ASSUMPTIONS PROVES WAY FOR RE-CREATION OF SOCIETY Maarten Hajer, Author and teacher at U Munich, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT AND MODERNITY:: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics” edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne//jah, p. 259 //VT98-am A more radical consequence of the cultural politics perspective for science would be that the ecological crisis would, potentially, be put upside down: the debate would no longer be on the protection of nature but would focus on the choice of what sort of nature and society we want. After all, once the deconstruction of, say, the biospheric discourse has exposed its naturalist and realist assumptions, the debate might take a different turn if people have become aware of the political and economic motivations behind biospheric discourse, and have come to grips with the backgrounds of their own naturalism, they might become intrigued by tile ‘myriad ways in which we make. unmake, and remake “nature” and “human nature”‘ (Bennett, 1993: 256). If technology is no longer seen as inherently problematic but also as a potential force to reconstitute the social relationships between nature, technology and society according to one’s own needs and preferences, the debate might lose its simplistic modern/ anti-modern format and a debate on the re-creation of society might result. The consequence would, of course, be that the debate would not necessarily focus on environmental matters: the re-creation of society might often focus more explicitly on the conceptualization of technologies, on the conditions of application of certain techniques, and on the preferred ’socialization of nature’ rather than the mere protection of nature as it is. EXAMINING SOCIAL FORCES BEHIND ECOMODERNISM ALLOWS FORMATION OF ALTERNATIVES Maarten Hajer, Author and teacher at U Munich, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT AND MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics” edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne//jah, p. 258 //VT98-am Whereas the previous two interpretations in fact shared a clear idea of the ecological problem, and both had their own idea about a possible remedial strategy (respectively conceptual or institutional change, and more coordination or more decentralization), the third interpretation holds that there can be no recourse to an ‘objective’ truth. It suggests that the ecological crisis is first and foremost a discursive reality which is the outcome of social processes. It is aware of the ambivalences of environmental discourse and would in the first instance not try to get ‘behind’ the metaphors of ecological discourse. It would try to encircle them to be able to challenge them scientifically, and to enhance consciousness of the contingency of knowledge about ecological matters. What is more, it would investigate the cultural consequences of prevailing story lines and would seek to find out which social forces propel this ecomodernist discourse coalition. Once the implicit future scenarios have been exposed, they might lead to a more reflective attitude towards certain environmental constructs and perhaps even to the formulation of alternative scenarios, the socio-political consequences of which would present a more attractive, more fair, or more responsible package. Hence the central concern of this third interpretation is with cognitive reflectivity, argumentation and negotiated social choice. ECOMOD-EXTENSIONS PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT AND PERSPECTIVE IS ESSENTIAL TO SOLVE THE ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS A NEW STYLE OF INTELLIGENCE BASED UPON PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IS CENTRAL TO SUSTAINABILITY Robin Grove-White, Director of the Center for the Study of Environmental Change, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT, AND MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Environmental Knowledge and Public Policy Needs,” edited by Lash, Szerzynski, Wynne//jah, p. 279 //VT98 – am Now, barely noticed, new forms of relationality and interdependence are being offered., albeit disguised behind the apparently atomizing practices and vocabularies of ‘individualism’, ‘consumption’ and ‘the market’ (Jacques, 1993; Szerszynski, 1994). This suggests that an urgent present requirement for progress towards ’sustainable development’ is for better intelligence about these dynamics – a richer, more sensitive understanding of the moral and cultural mutations now taking place in the sinews of society. These have the potential to harmonize with the coalitions for change now beginning to emerge, but which are currently in danger of becoming becalmed. FAILURE OF MODERNISM GIVES RISE TO CONDITIONS SUITABLE TO THE FORMATION OF REVITALIST MOVEMENTS EDWARD GOLDSMITH, 1993, THE WAY: AN ECOLOGICAL WORLDVIEW // JAH-3 p.380//VT98-am The increasing failure of all policies based on the world view of modernism and its derivative paradigms – those of science and of modern economics – to satisfy our most fundamental psychological needs, or indeed to solve any of the problems that threaten our very survival on this planet, gives rise to conditions increasingly propitious to the emergence of revitalist movements. The chances The chances are that many such movements will be affected by ecological ideas that are increasingly in the air and whose relevance is becoming ever more apparent even to the blindest among us. There are signs, too, that such movements could preach a return to the vernacular way of life. ECOMOD-EXTENSIONS REFLEXIVE ECOLOGICAL MODERNISM THROUGH THIS DISCUSSION AND OTHERS IS THE SOLUTION REFLEXIVE ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION OPENS UP DEBATE AND PROCESS TO INCLUDE DEMOCRATIC PARTICIPATION AND VALUES WHICH IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN INSTRUMENTAL RATIONALITY OF SPECIFIC SOLUTIONS Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 280281 //VT98 – am The ideal of a reflexive ecological modernization is a democratic process of deliberate social choice out of alternative scenarios of development (or indeed non-development ) This social choice is not instrumental rationality (concerning questions of how to do. Reflexive modernization should stimulate the debate on norms and values that should be the carriers of the modernization process. From a social constructivist point of view this means that reflexivity should be related to Douglas’s definition of pollution as ‘matter out of place.’ Ecological modernization focuses the discussion on the social order in terms of which we define what constitutes pollution. In this model ecological modernization automatically ceases to be a primarily techno-administrative affair in which the objective reality of expert discourse determines what is out of place and where solutions are selected that respect the implicit social order of expert discourse. Alternatively ecological modernization fosters a public domain where social realities and social preferences determine which actions should be taken, which social practices are to be respected and which conventions or practices be changed. REFLEXIVE ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION DEMANDS INSTITUTIONS THAT ALLOW DIVERSE PERSPECTIVES TO CHALLENGE THE HEGEMONY OF SCIENCE Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 282 //VT98-am Reflexive ecological modernization emphasizes the importance of the mobilization of independent opinions versus the respected power of authorities. In Enlightenment thought science broke through the authoritarianism of religion, but authors like Beck argue that in today’s context the scientific rationality and expert authority have themselves become the authoritarian forces that hinder the progress of enlightenment. The institutional practices of privileged expert advice have led to a negation of all sorts of critical capacities in society and have falsely resulted in a delegation of decision making an some of the most important decisions to experts’ councils that operate beyond the realm of democratic control.’ This has by no means improved the quality of decision making. What is called for are institutional practices that allow for the playing off against one another of different sorts of knowledge. Rather than orienting ourselves on science as the universal discourse, one might choose to facilitate the institutionalization of a public language that would allow for productive inter-discursive debates. Here scenarios of societal modernization might become the point of integration. OPTIMAL POLICY REQUIRES ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE TO DETERMINE REFLEXIVE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THE SYSTEM Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah //VT98-am The focus of analysis in this book will be on the practices that construct the policy problems and their solutions. The special interest is to see to what extent the practices involved are seen to have a reflexive potential that is to say we want to see to what extent they operate in their ‘industrial’ routine and to what extent they allow for the creation of new conceptual combinations and lead to new institutional practices. My usage of the term reflexivity thereby substantially different from Beck’s.. Beck conceives of reflexivity as the selfconfrontation of society or unintentional self-endangerment and distinguishes this from ‘reflection’ which refers to the knowledge one may have of these processes. Drawing on the insights of discourse-theory (which will be discussed in Chapter 2) I see reflexivity in the first instance as a relational notion that should be seen as a quality of discursive practices in which actors engage. Such practices are reflexive if they allow for the monitoring and assessment of the effect of certain social and cognitive systems of classification and categorization on our perception of reality. Reflexivity can thus be a quality of a metaphor or story-line that in a given context changes the perception of future perspectives. ECOMOD-EXTENSIONS ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE IS THE KEY TO REALITY ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE CREATES EMBLEMS WHICH DETERMINE PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 19 //VT98-am Fourth, the environmental problematique is hardly ever discussed in its full complexity (‘in the round’). Environmental discourse tends to be dominated by specific c emblems: issues that dominate the perception of the ecological dilemma in a specific period. To argue that certain issues can be emblematic obviously is not meant to suggest that these issues are irrelevant or draw away attention from the ‘real’ issues. The political importance of emblems in environmental discourse is that they mobilize biases in and out of the environmental debate. They are the issues in terms of which people understand the larger whole of the environmental condition. . As such. they thus effectively function as a metaphor or, to ‘ be more precise, as a metonym. Examples of emblems in environmental discourse of the last 150 years include deforestation in the nineteenth century, the destruction of the countryside (UK) or wilderness (US) around the turn of the century, soil erosion in the 1930s, pesticide pollution in the early 1960s, resource depletion in the early 1970s, nuclear power in the late 1970s, and global issues like the greenhouse effect and the diminishing ozone layer in the 1980s. The task of political analysis is to look at how actors are mobilized around such emblems and to examine the implications of this process of ‘coalition formation’ for the environmental discourse. Referring back to what was said in connection with Douglas above, the study of environmental discourse should illuminate which questions about social developments and which social expectations can be discussed meaningfully in the context of these emblems. DISCURSIVE STRATEGIES DETERMINE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 2O //VT98-am FIFTH, discursive strategies matter. Today’s environmental issues are discursively created. A leaking oil tanker, for example, is of course a physical event in itself, but then so is an unreported chemical spillage. Calamities only become a political issue if they are constituted as such in environmental discourse, if story-lines are created around them that indicate the significance of the physical events (compare, for in stance the effect of ‘It is the fourth consecutive spillage in two months’ or ‘The tanker did not have doubly secured partitions’ with ‘the stormy weather will guarantee the chemical breakdown of the oil’). Here they depend on agency and discursive strategies. This is even more true for a phenomenon like acid precipitation (quickly redefined as ‘acid rain’) or global warming (discussed as the ‘greenhouse effect’), which are not clearly identifiable ‘events’ but are rather gradual processes, accidents in slow motion, as Roqueplo has put it. Here the publication of a ‘report on survey findings’ or ‘new computer extrapolations’ replace the reality of an invisible calamity while press conferences are the second intermediary practice needed to make an environmental hazard into a political issue. Furthermore, the dominant role of emblems in environmental discourse indicates that single issues determine the public perception of a much more complex reality: hence if one (type of) disaster receives attention. other issues might pass relatively unnoticed. The discursive construction of reality thus becomes an important realm of power. If a discourse of concern could be diverted away from certain aspects of reality, no further action is needed.. However, no one obviously creates a calamity single-handedly (or steers one away, for that matter). Discursive strategies have to be understood in their own social and cognitive context. ECOMOD-EXTENSIONS DEBATE IS THE APPROPRIATE CONTEXT TO DETERMINE THE RHETORIC OF OUR POLICY DECISIONS ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICT REQUIRES EVALUATION OF STORY LINES NOT ACTION Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 72 //VT98-am The argumentative approach operationalizes the idea that discourse is constitutive of the realities of environmental politics. The environmental conflict thus does not appear as primarily a conflict over which sorts of action should be taken (or whether action should be taken) but as a conflict over the meaning of physical and social phenomena. In this process story-lines fulfill a key role. They determine the interplay between physical and social realities. Storylines are seen as the vehicles of change and are analyzed in connection to the specific discursive practices in which they are produced. DISCOURSE IN DEBATES REPRODUCES SOCIAL ORDER WITH EACH SPEECH Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 55 //VT98-am The second corrective to Foucault refers to the perspective on social change and permanence. One of the theoretical assumptions of the ‘positioning’ theory of Davies and Harris is that discourse is reproduced through a series of speech situations. The fact that there are similarities between statements (i.e. historical continuity) is to be explained by memory or historical references that people draw upon in a new ’speech situation’. This so called ‘immanentist’ view has interesting implications. Marx’s often quoted dictum that people make their own history but not under conditions of their own choosing is mostly interpreted to mean that actors are not totally free to act since they have to cope with the existing social structures. The immanentist view of language of Davies and Harre shows that this political context is also to be analyzed as a discursive construction. Rules, distinctions. or legitimate modes of expression only have meaning to the extent that they are taken up. It implies that the rules and conventions that constitute the social order have to be constantly reproduced and reconfirmed in actual speech situations whether in documents or debates. Consequently, the power structures of society can and should be studied directly through discourse. IT IS IMPERATIVE TO ANALYZE ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE THAT CREATES REALITY FOR EVERY PERSON Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow Institute of Law and Public Policy 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, P. 55 //VT98-am This has ;interesting consequences for the research of politics and policy-making. Analyzing interpersonal communication thus becomes much more relevant. Analyzing policy papers becomes important even if they do not include ‘hard’ new proposals or legislation. It becomes imperative to examine the specific idea of reality or of the status quo as something that is upheld by key actors through discourse. Likewise it becomes essential to look at the specific way in which oppositional forces seek to challenge these constructs. Discourse analysis, then, is not only essential for the analysis of subject positions but also for ’structure positionings’ (referring to which structural elements can be changed, and what institutions remain to be seen as fixed or permanent). Change and permanence thus come to depend on active discursive reproduction or transformation. In this process actors are not totally tree but are, as holders of specific positions, entangled m webs of meaning. Here the routinization of cognitive commitments gives permanence to discursive understanding: ‘Once having taken up a particular position as one’s own, a person inevitably sees the world from the vantage point of that position and in terms of the particular images, metaphors, story lines, and concepts. ORIENTATIONS OF DEBATE ON ECOLOGICAL CRISES DETERMINES ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY Maarten Hajer, Author and teacher at Up Munich, “Ecological Modernization as Cultural Politics,” RISK. ENVIRONMENT AND MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne, 1996//jah p. 247//VT98-am Secondly if we accept the thesis that environmental discourse is organized around changing emblems, we should investigate the repercussions of these subsequent orientations of the debate. After all emblems mobilize bias in and out of environmental politics. They can be seen as specific discursive constructions or story lines that dominate the perception of the nature of the ecological dilemma at a specific moment in time. Here the framing of the problem also governs the debate on necessary changes. In the case of the US conservation issue the prevailing story line framed the environmental threat as a case of ‘big companies that tried to destroy the American wilderness and rob ‘the American people’ of something that was constitutive of its national identity. This then paved the way for the state-controlled technocrats who established ‘national parks’ and seized control over rivers and pastures in the name of the common good Hays’s reinterpretation of the history of the conservation movement illuminates the often disregarded fact that technocrats subsequently used their brief to implement a comprehensive scheme of ’scientific resource management’ in which wildlife and nature were largely made subordinate to their concern about achieving optimal yields directly going against the original intentions of the popular movement. The word ‘conservation’ remained central yet its institutional meaning changed radically. Ergo: ecological discourse is not about the environment alone. Indeed, the key question is about which social projects are furthered under the flag of environmental protection. ECOMOD-EXTENSIONS DEBATE IS THE APPROPRIATE CONTEXT TO DETERMINE THE RHETORIC OF OUR POLICY DECISIONS [P. 2] EFFECTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL COMMUNICATION IS CENTRAL TO AVERTING GLOBAL COLLAPSE — EVERY SECOND WE DELAY MAKES THE TASK THAT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT James G. Cantrill and Christine L. Oravec, Prof. of Communication and Performance Studies at Northern Michigan and Prof. of Communications at University of Utah, 1996, THE SYMBOLIC EARTH // jah, p. 5 //VT98-am Yet approaching the turn of the century, we must make a decision about how we should talk about what we know and feel, and we must do so before the opportunity is pre empted by a collapsing global ecosystem. Our species has long since lost the luxury of mulling over abstract problems such as population “bombs” or Malthusian nightmares. For every child born this second in some corner of the distracted globe, the job of communicating our way out of environmental peril becomes that much more difficult. And in a short time, environmental discourse may fall by the way to be replaced by more draconian measures to maintain a human presence on the planet. But it is still this century a and we still have the opportunity to study and practice effective environmental communication. If the contributions to this environment and discourse, women and men may yet be sensitive enough to foster a more environmentally benign and prosperous world. The “fact” is. we still have much work do and environment in which to accomplish a great deal. RHETORICAL CRITICISM IS THE OPTIMAL WAY TO JUDGE ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE IN THIS DEBATE Carl G. Herndl and Stuart C. Brown, Prof. of English and Prof. of Rhetorical History and Criticism at New Mexico State, 1996, GREEN CULTURE//jah, p. 18 // VT98-am The environment has become a central topic in a wide range of institutions and forums. Discussions of environment matters now not only occupy entire fields of study, but cross disciplinary boundaries and include the distinctly American genre of nature writing, several sciences, politics, economics, ethics, law, and spirituality. Despite this widespread concern, however, scholars have produced very few concentrated analyses of the rhetoric of these debates. This collection begins to address that lack; and provides a scheme for defining the emerging field of rhetorical analyses of environmental discourse. Although the chapters in this collection examine a range of methods, sites, and issues, There is a great variety of environmental discourse that remains to be examined. Environmental discourse in the mass media, writing in sciences such as biology and ecology, and the growing body of work in environmental racism and ecofeminism provide rich sites for future analysis. As the essays in this collection demonstrate, rhetorical criticism offers a means to investigate and evaluate, as Sonja Foss notes, “rhetorical acts and artifacts for the purpose of understanding the rhetorical process” of language at work in the world (5). Rhetorical criticism can provide “a form of interrogation, of performed response c, of appreciation, interpretation, explanation and judgment according to Thomas Benson (xxii). LANGUAGE AND DISCOURSE CREATE NEW MEANINGS AND COGNITIVE UNDERSTANDING CENTRAL TO POLITICAL CHANGE Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 59 //VT98-am In so doing, I aim to position myself first of all against studies that see social constructs as a function of the interests of a group of actors. In that case language is seen as a means and it is assumed that actors use language purely as a passive set of tools. In actual fact there is much more interaction between the linguistic structures and the formation of preferences. In this book language is seen as an integral part of reality, as a specific communicative practice which influences the perception of interests and preference. Interests, as my account of Foucault and the social psychologists has shown, cannot be assumed as given. Interests are inter subjectively constituted through discourse. This has important repercussions for the study of environmental politics, since it suggests that the emergence of a new policy discourse like ecological modernization may actually alter the individual perception of problems and possibilities and thus create space for the formation of new, unexpected political coalitions. Secondly, and related to the argument above, my approach should be distinguished from theories that ground their argument in the idea that actions and perceptions should be understood against the background of deeply held beliefs or belief systems. Here each belief system has its own a priori way of seeing and its own way of arguing things. The argumentative approach focuses on the level of the discursive interaction and argues that discursive interaction (i.e. language in use) can create new meanings and new identities i.e. it may alter cognitive patterns and create new cognitions and new positionings. Hence, discourse fulfills a key role in processes of political change. ECOMOD-EXTENSIONS DECISION RULE: WE MUST MAKE AN ETHICAL-VALUE DECISION ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT, NOT WEIGH IMPACTS ETHICAL ISSUES ARE FUNDAMENTAL TO FRAMING ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS IN SUCH A WAY THAT INEQUITY IS NOT PERPETUATED Judith Reppy, Prof. science and technology studies, 1996, EARTHLY GOODS: ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIAL JUSTICE, edited by Hampson and Reppy // jah, p. 245 //VT98-am THE environmental changes that have already occurred as a result of human activities, and the much greater changes that loom on the horizon, challenge our collective ability to alter our behavior. Adaptation to the changing environment will surely take place, and human beings may even develop measures to prevent or mitigate environmental change. The argument of this book has been that any such response to global environmental change must incorporate a concern for social justice and a respect for the well-being of the ecosystem. Ethical issues are not “add-one” to the policy issues raised by environmental change they are fundamental to the framing of the problems to be addressed and the search for acceptable solutions. Absent these moral concerns, we run the risk of devising environmental policies that will perpetuate inequity within and among societies and further damage the relation ship between human society and the larger ecosystem. VALUE JUDGMENTS ARE CRITICAL TO UNDERSTANDING ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION-MAKING C. Richard Cothern, editor, Ph.D. center for environmental statistics, Handbook for Environmental Risk Management: Values, Perceptions, & Ethics, 1996 // Cjj p. 38 //VT98-am Values and ethics should be included in the environmental decision making process for three reasons: they are already a major component although unacknowledged; ignoring them causes almost insurmountable difficulties in risk communication; and it is the right thing to do. Values and value judgments pervade the process of risk assessment risk management and risk communication as a major factor in environmental risk decision making. Almost every step in any assessment involves values and value judgments. However, it is seldom acknowledged that they even play a role. The very selection of methodology for decision making involves a value judgment. The selection of which contaminants to study and analyze involves value judgments. Weighing different risks involves value judgments. We cannot and should not exclude values and value judgments from the environmental decision making process as they are fundamental to understanding the political nature of regulation and decisions that involve environmental health for humans and all living things. DUE TO LIMITS OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE DECISIONS MUST BE BASED ON MORAL IMPERATIVES Barbara Adam, editor of Time and Society, 1996, RISK, ENVIRONMENT AND MODERNITY: TOWARDS A NEW ECOLOGY, “Re-vision: The Centrality of Time for an Ecological Social Science Perspective,” edited by Lash, Szerszynski, Wynne//jah, p. 97-98 //VT98-am The question then becomes how we are to move from the traditional mode of social science analysis to an explicit cognizance of the future – not the prediction and planning of the future based on knowledge of the past but a mindfulness of the future, a regard for the future which takes responsibility for potential outcomes of present actions and incorporates this into present decisions and actions. Admittedly, taking account of posterity is a. difficult task as long as understanding is grounded in Newtonian science and Cartesian philosophy: unknowable futures, the scale and speed of changes, the connectivity and inter relatedness of processes, timelags and periods of invisibility, all these characteristics of the contemporary global condition elude the Enlightenment vision. The formidability of the task, however, must not detract from the fact that our creations today make us irrevocably, responsible for their known and unknown effects. This means that taking account of the futures of successors is not just a laudable aim, but a moral imperative, not a choice but an inescapable duty. Where mastery fails morals become an imperative. ECOMOD-EXTENSIONS DECISION RULE: WE MUST MAKE AN ETHICAL-VALUE DECISION ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT, NOT WEIGH IMPACTS [P. 2] POLICY CHOICES ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION ARE VALUE DECISIONS WITH ETHICAL ASPECTS C. Richard Cothern, editor, Ph.D. center for environmental statistics, Handbook for Environmental Risk Management: Values. Perceptions. & Ethics, 1996//cjj p. 49 //VT98-am Some observe that environmental decisions must be viewed primarily as ethical choices rather than as technically dictated conclusions. It is important in an age of increasing scientific complexity and interested parties attempt to understand the value positions and ethical issues that underlie scientifically derived policy choices. Experts and concerned citizens must realize that critical policy choices concerning environmental pollution and toxic chemicals are judgments, matters of morality and social and political judgments. The ethical interest impinges on I decision making even at the first stage when we ask ourselves “how do we come to know the range of possible alternatives”, for there may be alternative ways of coming to know alternatives, and we have to make some kind of value judgment among them. At the second stage of the decision making process, in which the alternatives are subjected to value ordering, the ethical interest is clearly implied, for one of the major concerns of ethics is the evaluation of value orderings themselves. “Ethics, that is, concerned with what might be called decision problems of the second degree, that is, decision about how decisions are going to be made and according to what principles are they going to be made.” ETHICAL DISCOURSE IN ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION MAKING RESOLVES PROBLEMS OF SCIENTIFIC EMPHASIS C. Richard Cothern, editor, Ph.D. center for environmental statistics, Handbook for Environmental Risk Management: Values Perceptions, & Ethics, 1996//cjj p. 47 // VT98-am There is a need to involve ethical discourse in science and environmental risk decision malting for the following reasons: it will assist in resolving potential conflicts, it will prevent default values based on supposedly value neutral analysis, those making decisions need to know the value judgments imbedded in the information available, most scientific information contains uncertainty and may be easily thwarted by different value judgments, and these are often the normative principles that are actually used in the decisions. ECOMOD-ANSWER REFLEXIVE ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION WILL NOT CREATE CONSENSUS IN US Maarten A Hajer, Research fellow institute law and public policy, 1995, THE POLITICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DISCOURSE: ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND THE POLICY PROCESS//jah, p. 283//VT98-am Reflexive ecological modernism as suggested above is of course not without its problems. In the above we have put much emphasis on the virtues of more open debate and democratic deliberations, while at the same time underscoring the vices of unnecessary secrecy and elitist and techno-corporatist tendencies of all sorts. In fact such a plea is more appropriate in some contexts than in others. For instance, it is a more typically European argument to argue that more democratic institutional arrangements would produce better or more desirable outcomes in environmental politics. To the extent that the normatively desirable goal of democratization is facilitated such regulation is undeniably superior. Yet some American authors working in the field of environmental regulation would be likely to respond less enthusiastically were they to discover that the concept of reflexive institutions was synonymous with more democratic arrangements and extended legal rights. After all, some of the e arrangements that are currently being promoted in Western Europe as new directions have been in place in the USA for years; without, however, producing policies of a less symbolic sort. Neither did it necessarily bring results that scored better in terms of reduction of pollution levels, the time frames within which levels were brought down or the degree to which those involved have been able to reach a consensus on the route to follow. In Europe a Freedom of Information Act, Right to Know schemes, or extended legal opportunities to force political changes through litigation may seem revolutionary ideas. From an American perspective one is more likely to emphasize that such practices are extraordinarily Time-consuming, expensive, and not necessarily more effective. And, if argumentative discourse analysis teaches us anything, it is that the format in which policy discourses are developed has a that the influence on the construction of policy problems and the outcome of the political process. Hence, could be argued that such argumentative institutional structures are likely to produce dissensus where consensus might have been achieved in other circumstances. DISADVANTAGES These five disadvantages should serve as an initial core of your arsenal of disadvantages. There are some essential arguments (such as a spending disadvantage and a Clinton credibility disadvantage) which you will want to be familiar with, but those are “date intensive” and need to be researched day-by-day, so we have not included them. Each of these arguments needs to be further researched during the year. 182 SAUDI INSTABILITY This disadvantage assumes that when renewable energy use increases, oil imports from the Middle East will decrease. As oil demand softens, the government of Saudi Arabia (the world’s largest oil producer) is not able to hold down popular dissent in the country. The government has long used oil revenues to keep their people “happy” with benefit programs from oil revenues, but a weakening of the oil market leads to unrest and instability. Instability in the Persian Gulf could easily lead to an oil shock and another war. 189 ICE AGE This is useful as a companion to case side warming take outs and turns. The argument here is that the world’s climate is actually trying to turn colder and only fossil fuel use and global warming keeps us from falling into a new ice age. When the affirmative decreases fossil fuel use enough to have an impact on global warming, we will slide into cold because warming isn’t there to counter balance it. 194 UNITED STATES LEADERSHIP The argument here is that when the affirmative makes the US a world leader in renewable energy (or in any way), they give the US additional confidence and political will to move quickly into the second stage of NATO expansion, specifically into the Baltic nations. This would lead to a Russian backlash and instability, leading to revolution and war, including nuclear conflict. 216 NEW SOCIAL MOVEMENTS There is an extensive explanation of this argument on page 216. 238 HYDROPOWER IS DANGEROUS Not all cases will “choose” specific renewable energy sources to use, but will “leave it up to the market” or “industry” or whatever. Whenever choice is allowed among renewables the choice will be hydropower — dams. Green pricing is an example. The problem here is that dams are inefficient, destroy ecosystems and species, increase flood severity, and crush any emerging new ecological ethic. SAUDI ARABIAN INSTABILITY SHELL A. AFFIRMATIVE MAKES OIL LESS IMPORTANT THROUGH THE USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY B. IF OIL PRICES FALL SAUDI INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY David Knott, Senior Editor, 1996 [Oil and Gas Journal, Aug. 5. Foreign partners scarce in OPEC gulf states \\VT98-hovden] CGES said that, faced with Saudi Arabia’s growing internal problems, the U.S. is keen to avoid any risk of a sharp fall in oil prices that might add to the kingdom’s worries. “Saudi Arabia has earned $ 8 billion more than it expected so far this year as a result of high oil prices,” said CGES, “and this has helped alleviate its financial troubles. “If oil prices were to erode as a result of Iraqi exports, Saudi budgets would be squeezed once more, adding to the pressure for economic and political reform in a country that is used to spending its way out of trouble. C. IF ISLAMIC FORCES TAKE CONTROL OF SAUDI ARABIA A HUGE WAR WILL OCCUR AND THE USA WILL BE PULLED IN DeWAYNE WICKHAM, Sept. 5, 1996 [Gannett News Service. HEADLINE: Toppling Saddam could bring more grief than relief to the United States\\VT98-hovden] If Islamic radicals take control of Iraq, Saudi Arabia — the linchpin of U.S. policy in the gulf region -will be put at risk. And the domino effect of the loss of Saudi Arabia and its tremendous energy reserves could bring about a far more costly war than the Persian Gulf conflict. SAUDI INSTABILITY SAUDI ARABIAN ECONOMY DEPENDS ON OIL OIL IS INTEGRAL TO SAUDI ARABIA’S ECONOMY Reuters North American Wire, 1996 [June 25, HEADLINE: Key facts about Saudi Arabia\\VT98-hovden] ECONOMY Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest oil producer and exporter. Oil revenues accounted for 37 percent of its gross national product in 1995. Its economic might lies in owning a quarter of the world’s oil reserves. Crude oil reserves stand at about 260 billion barrels and it has 186 trillion cubic feet of natural gas deposits. Saudi Arabia has the capacity to produce 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, although its quota obligation in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries keeps production at eight million bpdabout a quarter of OPEC’s total and 10 percent of global output. SAUDI ARABIA IS IN SEVERE ECONOMIC CRISIS OIL IS THE ONLY THING SUSTAINING IT The Dayton Daily News, 1996 [July 3. HEADLINE: WORLD UPCLOSE: SAUDI ARABIA'S GOLD MINE; OIL INDUSTRY DICTATES COUNTRY'S FATE\\VT98-hovden] * Now, 15 years later, the pressure on Saudi Arabia is severe. Per capita GNP is less than half of what it was in 1981. The budgets of the Ministries of Education and Health have been cut. The water shortage is a disaster in the making. * According to Said K. Aburish’s The Rise, Corruption and Coming Fall of the House of Saud, the kingdom’s real international debt, including off-balance sheet items, now totals more than $ 60 billion. And that figure could rise to $ 100 billion by 1997. * To service its debt, Saudi Arabia must what it and many other OPEC countries don’t want to do — pump more oil at ever-declining prices, thereby creating more supply, which will yet again drive down prices. SAUDI ARABIA IS IN AN ECONOMIC CRISIS: OIL REVENUES ARE KEY TO THEIR ECONOMY Jim Rogers, 1996 [The Sun (Baltimore), June 30; HEADLINE: The crumbling House of Saud; Unrest: Saudi Arabia's rulers sit atop the world's largest family business. But the business is shaky and the pie it has to split up is shrinking.\\VT98-hovden] Forgotten in the hysteria over hydrocarbon, however, were the laws of supply and demand. Westerners began to drive smaller cars, adjust their thermostats, and buy energy-efficient appliances and equipment. So the demand for oil slowed. Meanwhile, high prices triggered an exploration and drilling boom. So the supply increased. There was only one possible outcome: lower prices. Now, 15 years later, the pressure on Saudi Arabia is severe. Per capita GNP is less than half of what it was in 1981. The budgets of the Ministries of Education and Health have been cut. The water shortage is a disaster in the making. According to Said K. Aburish’s “The Rise, Corruption and Coming Fall of the House of Saud,” the kingdom’s real international debt, including off-balance sheet items, now totals more than $ 60 billion. At the rate Saudi Arabia is sinking into the sand, that figure could rise to $ 100 billion by 1997 To my amazement, even the religious ulemas, long silent, have begun to protest the corrupt and profligate ways of the monarch and his huge and overgrowing family. They were particularly galled in 1987 when Fahd gave $ 300 million in spending money to his 14-yearold son. To service its debt, Saudi Arabia must now do what it and many other OPEC countries don’t want to do: pump more oil at ever-declining prices, thereby creating more supply, which will yet again drive down prices. SAUDI INSTABILITY WEAK ECONOMY MEANS UNREST AND REVOLUTION IN SAUDI ARABIA A WEAK SAUDI ECONOMY CAUSES AN INCREASED ISLAMIC PRESSURE Ethan Bronner, 1996 [The Boston Globe, June 27; HEADLINE: Blast points to Saudi instability; Threats from within and without undermining the authority of ruling family; Material from wire services was used in this report.\\VT98-hovden] The tentative switch to Abdullah comes at a time when the country is facing unprecedented economic and social woes due partly to the drop in oil prices over the past decade and reckless spending by the royals. About a quarter of Saudi university graduates are said to be without work. Saudi Arabia has among the most severe of Islamic legal codes but the rulers face pressure from Muslim fundamentalists who come not only from the minority Shiites but increasingly from the majority Sunnis and even from within the Wahabis, an orthodox Sunni subsect that includes the ruling family and many other wealthy families. THE WEAKENING SAUDI ECONOMY IS FODDER FOR ISLAMIST DISSIDENTS Trudy Rubin, 1996 [Austin American-Statesman, July 1. HEADLINE: U.S. must talk straight to Saudi rulers\\VT98-hovden] But declining oil prices, immense defense spending and the cost of the Gulf War have run up huge Saudi debts, undercutting the rulers’ ability to buy off the rest of the population with lavish subsidies. Middle-class income is declining (some experts say per capita earnings have dropped from $14,000 to $4,000 yearly since 1982) and unemployment is rising. No wonder the royals’ corruption provides grist for Islamist dissidents. SAUDI INSTABILITY BRINK: STRONG OIL REVENUE IS THE CRITICAL ELEMENT FOR SAUDI STABILITY ALL LEVELS OF THE SAUDI ECONOMY ARE SUFFERING Mohamed H. Heikal; Yomiuri Shimbun, 1996 [The Daily Yomiuri, April 29, HEADLINE: INSIGHTS INTO THE WORLD;Strains showing in House of Al-Saud//VT98-hovden] As the decade drew to a close, falling oil prices and a weaker dollar stemmed the flood of petrodollars that had for a time succeeded in attenuating the social, political and ideological contradictions in the country. By the 1990s, annual oil revenue had dropped from $1 10 billion to $17 billion, a sum insufficient to cover the requirements of the current budget, let alone the development budget or the civil list. And, as the trickle-down effect of the massive budget surplus created in the halcyon days of the oil boom dried up, all social strata–from the new middle class to the poorest inhabitants of the kingdom’s remote valleys and deserts–felt the pinch. Nor were matters helped by the drain on the country’s dwindling resources for arms purchases useful only in ameliorating the balance of payments of the United States and other exporting countries. OIL MONEY IS THE ONLY THING THAT KEEPS SAUDI ARABIA FROM DISINTEGRATING Mohamed H. Heikal; Yomiuri Shimbun, 1996 [The Daily Yomiuri, April 29; HEADLINE: INSIGHTS INTO THE WORLD;Strains showing in House of Al-Saud//VT98-hovden] The other, more recent, phenomenon dates back to the oil boom of the 1970s. Thanks to the huge windfall of petrodollars coupled with rapid urbanization and a dramatic increase in services, including education, health and basic infrastructure, the kingdom’s subjects, a traditionally nomadic or semi nomadic people, outgrew their modest Bedouin origins and their traditional lifestyle as small traders. Social and class configurations became sharper and more clearly defined, and a new breed of educated, prosperous commoners coagulated to form a middle class. Exposure to the outside world has fueled the aspirations of the new Saudi bourgeoisie for participation in the decision-making process, but though they play a major role in running the country’s economy and government bureaucracy, they have not enjoyed comparable political power, which is still wielded exclusively by the class of princes. Their frustration is compounded by the fact that the progeny of Ibn Saud also exert enormous influence in the field of business and upper-echelon government posts. During the 1980s, these potentially destabilizing phenomena were held in check by the rivers of oil wealth flowing into the Saudi coffers. In 1981, for example, oil revenue amounted to $110 billion per year, which allowed for a public spending budget of $20 billion and a further $20 billion to finance the five-year development plans, in addition to the share of the king and his immediate branch of the family that, according to a very loose interpretation of a Sharia provision, was assessed at $20 billion. MANY SAUDIS ARE TRAINED IN GUERRILLA WARFARE, OIL REVENUES ARE HOLDING OFF THE CONFLICT Bearman, Jonathan, 1996 [The Oil Daily, July 16; HEADLINE: Saudis worry that terrorists will target oil industry next.SaudiArabia\\VT98-hovden] They also believe it undermines the unwritten contract forged between King Abdul-Aziz bin Saud, the founder of Saudi Arabia, and his supporters, made up mainly of Wahabi from the Nejd. Under this, Abdul-Aziz pledged to base Saudi law on Islamic religious tenets. Bolstered by oil revenues, the Al-Sauds, especially over the past 15 years, have reduced their dependence on the Wahabi ulema, with patronage through oil funding taking the place of a consensual relationship. But this weakened relationship in itself did not generate a terrorist response. The agency was the war in Afghanistan. By recruiting and paying for the creation of muiahadin armies to fight the Russian invaders in Afghanistan, the Saudi intelligence services, headed by Prince Turki al- Faisal, exposed a generation of Saudi religious students to the polemic and tactics of fundamentalism at war. When they returned to Saudi Arabia, many brought back with them the methods learned in the Afghan conflict. SAUDI OIL PRODUCTION IS DEPENDENT ON US INVOLVEMENT NORMAN KEMPSTER, 1996 [Los Angeles Times, June 27; HEADLINE: THE ATTACK IN SAUDI ARABIA; STAKES ARE TOO HIGH FOR U.S. PULLOUT; DIPLOMACY: SAUDI ARABIA'S OIL AND GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION MAKE IT AN IMPORTANT ALLY .\\VT98-hovden] More than 95% of Saudi oil is produced by Aramco, a company created by a consortium of U.S. oil firms but now the property of the Saudi government. However, Americans still hold many key Aramco positions, from the oil fields to the boardroom. From Saudi Arabia’s standpoint, its relationship with the United States is of vital importance. Since 1953, American forces have been training, supporting and selling sophisticated arms to the Saudi military. When Iraq invaded Kuwait and threatened Saudi Arabia in August 1990, the United States led the international coalition that stopped the Iraqi advance. SAUDI INSTABILITY MILITANT GROUPS WANT TO TAKE OVER SAUDIA ARABIA A MILITANT MUSLIM GROUP IS THREATENING THE HOUSE OF SAUD Ethan Bronner, 1996 [The Boston Globe, June 27; HEADLINE: Blast points to Saudi instability; Threats from within and without undermining the authority of ruling family;Material from wire services was used in this report.\\VT98hovden] The devastating truck bomb that ripped through a US Air Force housing complex in Saudi Arabia Tuesday night, killing 19 and wounding hundreds more, is further evidence of the creeping instability plaguing the oil-rich desert kingdom and close US ally since the 1991 Gulf War. The ruling House of Saud faces not only internal family strains but a growing dissident militant Muslim movement that claimed responsibility for a similar attack last November on a US-run military training center in Riyadh in which five US military advisers and two Indian citizens were killed. ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS WANT TO OVERTHROW THE HOUSE OF SAUD ERIC MARGOLIS, 1996 [The Toronto Sun, June 30; HEADLINE: ROYAL FAMILY'S EXCESSES FVEL SAUDI DISCONTENT\\VT98-hovden] There are two main opposition groups: educated, middle-class youth who want to replace the feudal monarchy that rules Saudi Arabia with a republic or western-style democracy; then there are the violent extremists, also mainly youths, who gather under the banner of political Islam. They want to overthrow the Saudi royal family, expel its American protectors, bring in an Islamic republic, and raise the price of oil to economically realistic levels. THE HOUSE OF SAUD IS A BETTER OPTION THAN THE ALTERNATIVES NORMAN KEMPSTER, 1996 [Los Angeles Times, June 27; HEADLINE: THE ATTACK IN SAUDI ARABIA, STAKES ARE TOO HIGH FOR U. S. PULLOUT; DIPLOMACY: SAUDI ARABIA'S OIL AND GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION MAKE IT AN IMPORTANT ALLY.\\VT98-hovden] Administration officials said the United States decided years ago that its relationship with Saudi Arabia is too important to be sacrificed to scruples about the human rights abuses of its authoritarian government. For one thing, these officials said, the Saudi monarchy is probably far more progressive than an elected government would be, much as the shah’s repressive regime in Iran now seems benign compared to the elected government that followed it. SAUDI INSTABILITY BRINK: SAUDI REGIME IS VULNERABLE KING FAUD’S POSITION IS PRECARIOUS. INTERNAL UNREST IS INCREASING Jim Rogers, 1996 [The Sun (Baltimore), June 30; HEADLINE: The crumbling House of Saud; Unrest: Saudi Arabia's rulers sit atop the world's largest family business. But the business is shaky and the pie it has to split up is shrinking.\\VT98-hovden] We tend to think of Saudi Arabia’s neighbors as the greatest threat to the kingdom’s stability: Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, and Iraq. But it is really other Saudis who are most dangerous. From a safe base in London, Arabian dissidents hurl bricks at the regime they hate. Meanwhile, Islamic fundamentalists at home cannot forgive the king for embracing anything Western, be it rock music, Coca-Cola, or the invasion of American troops onto sacred Saudi soil during the Gulf War. A third group, the enlightened, modern Muslims, are angry because they want a Western-style democracy. King Fahd sits — once again — atop the world’s largest family business. Yet it is a business in disarray — one that must now figure out how to divvy up a shrinking pie. THE SAUDI REGIME IS UNSTABLE THE SITUATION COULD SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL Mohamed H. Heikal; Yomiuri Shimbun, 1996 [The Daily Yomiuri, April 29; HEADLINE: INSIGHTS INTO THE WORLD;Strains showing in House of Al-Saud//VT98-hovden] With so much at stake, it is hard to see how the shaping of its present can be left to the vagaries of one family, the ruling House of Al-Saud, and the direction of its future to the will of one empire, the United States. Especially when, as now seems to be the case, the situation threatens to slip out of the control of both, with unmistakable signs of strains and stresses at the heart of the ruling establishment beginning to emerge in defiance of a political and media cover-up. The situation is rendered all the more critical by growing tensions between the forces of traditionalism and modernization. Since its creation in the early 1930s, Saudi Arabia managed to place itself within a succession of institutional arrangements and alliances, which, until recently, served as a kind of buffer against the impact of new realities and the imperatives of change on a kingdom ill-prepared to cope with them. SAUDI ARABIA IS TEETERING ON THE EDGE OF AN ABYSS Mohamed H. Heikal; Yomiuri Shimbun, 1996 [The Daily Yomiuri, April 29; HEADLINE: INSIGHTS INTO THE WORLD;Strains showing in House of Al-Saud//VT98-hovden] As matters now stand, the king’s health and the crown prince’s morale are at a low ebb. The king is unable to assume the full burden of his responsibilities, and the crown prince has taken himself, his family and a group of friends off on a hunting expedition in the Hafrel-Baten area. Meanwhile, Prince Sultan, the defense minister, went on an inspection tour of the kingdom’s far-flung military bases. This leaves a country of crucial importance for Muslims and the world at large teetering on the brink of an abyss as it waits for the outcome of a game played out in a complex arena made up of holy places, oil wells, halfempty treasuries, divided loyalties, media empires and rival fighting forces. And, as recent events attest, political temperatures are running high not only in Riyadh but all along the shores of the Gulf, threatening the stability of an entire region of paramount geopolitical importance. THE THREAT OF INTERNAL INSURRECTION IN SAUDI ARABIA IS HUGE Ethan Bronner, 1996 [The Boston Globe, June 27; HEADLINE: Blast points to Saudi instability; Threats from within and without undermining the authority of ruling family;Material from wire services was used in this report.\\VT98-hovden] The Saudis thought at first that Iran was behind last November’s Riyadh bombing and when it became clear that the attackers were homegrown radicals it shocked Saudis who compared it to the Oklahoma City bombing just over a year ago. The difference appears to be, however, that the threat within Saudi Arabia from such discontent seems more profound, with large consequences for the United States and its troops stationed here as well as for its oil supply. SAUDI INSTABILITY NEW FUNDAMENTALIST REGIME IN SAUDIA ARABIA DESTABILIZES THE MIDDLE EAST INTERNAL SAUDI ARABIAN CONFLICT COULD SPREAD ISLAMIC CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST Jim Rogers, 1996 [The Sun (Baltimore), June 30; HEADLINE: The crumbling House of Saud; Unrest: Saudi Arabia's rulers sit atop the world's largest family business. But the business is shaky and the pie it has to split up is shrinking.\\VT98-hovden] In Bahrain, next door to Saudi Arabia, riots broke out late last year, and in Qatar, also next door, the government changed when a sheik overthrew his father. Both are oil-rich principalities. One rebellion might be a fluke, but two show a pattern: Expectations were aroused when everybody in that part of the world floated on vast sums of money. Those vast sums have now dried up, and the oceans of money won’t rise again until the current world order is so disrupted that oil shortages cause prices to soar. I can’t imagine that a Saudi Arabian revolution will be a smooth, bloodless takeover. Oil production will most likely fall in the process. Indeed, the oil fields might be a prime target during the struggle, as we saw in Kuwait Imagine the domino effect at work in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is under siege, mass confusion reigns in the Western democracies, and so Iran and Iraq hurriedly kiss and make up. (President Clinton’s policy of isolating them is already pushing them together.) So if Iran and Iraq can pull the new Saudi Arabia to their side, then Kuwait is going to fall, and so will the United Arab Emirates. IF THE SAUDIS RUN OUT OF MONEY INTERNAL CONFLICT COULD OCCUR THAT WOULD SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE REGION Jim Rogers, 1996 [The Sun (Baltimore), June 30; HEADLINE: The crumbling House of Saud; Unrest: Saudi Arabia's rulers sit atop the world's largest family business. But the business is shaky and the pie it has to split up is shrinking.\\jan] So, here’s the picture: Despite all that oil, the Saudis are running out of money. The Shiite minority shares little of the honey pot and is increasingly aggravated over the House of Saud’s greedy royal scheme. As the noose tightens around their throats, the Shiites realize their Islamic birthright has been kept from them. What follows for the rest of us if Saudi Arabia collapses from a civil rebellion? We in the United States would have a big problem. We use 25 percent of all the oil produced in the world. When Saudi Arabia is in flames, can we send troops to the region around Mecca, Islam’s holiest site? Very unlikely. Suppose Iran or Iraq joins the fray? Fighting a war against Iran and Iraq will be a lot more difficult than was fighting Iraq over Kuwait on a limited front. A clever rebel will marry dissatisfaction over the corruption and high living of the extended royal family with the supposed desecration of holy sites, such as Mecca and Medina. MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT RISKS NUCLEAR WAR Moore, Mike, 1996 [Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists; March\\VT98-hovden] “Following the Persian Gulf War,” said Albright, “the international community was optimistic that nations could act together to stop proliferation, or at least to mitigate its consequences. However, the current status is that unless the international community finds more effective ways to solve the problem of proliferation, the risk of nuclear war will increase, particularly in South Asia and the Middle East. ” REDUCING GLOBAL WARMING TRIGGERS A NEW ICE AGE SHELL A. AFFIRMATIVE CLAIMS TO REDUCE GLOBAL WARMING B. GLOBAL WARMING IS COUNTERACTING A TREND TOWARD GLOBAL COOLING Power Europe, 1993, July 2. Global warming – fact or claim? // VT98-JMH Michaels described how the outer atmospheric layer, the stratosphere, is cooling worldwide, believing that this may account for the observed increased cloud cover across the northern hemisphere and in Australia. Increased cloud cover reflecting the sun’s rays would have the opposite effect to an enhanced greenhouse effect. So if there actually is an enhanced greenhouse effect, we may have cause to be thankful as this would counteract global cooling. C. ABSENT ANTHROPOGENICALLY PRODUCED WARMING THE EARTH WOULD PRESENTLY BE IN AN ICE AGE . Wendy Robertson, staff writer, 1994, The Scotsman. February 3 Warming may have staved off ice age// VT98-JMH GLOBAL warming and the greenhouse effect may have staved off the next ice age. Under normal conditions the planet would be descending towards temperatures of minus 20 Centigrade in winter, and a maximum of 6 Centigrade in summer. But the past 200 years of human activity had canceled that out. D. THE NEXT ICE AGE WILL DESTROY SOCIETY Adrian Berry, Staff Writer, December 1 O, 1995 SUNDAY TELEGRAPH, “Asteroids collide-and so the iceman cometh GLACIATION The last Ice Age boosted human evolution. But the next one could finish it,” P. 19// VT98MCCOLLOUGH Paradoxically, the most recent Ice Age brought immense benefit to the human race since it taught them to become human. It transformed an apeIike species into modern man. It was a time in which fear of starvation led, for the first time in human history, to organized hunting parties, which in turn led to speech and language, It was an epoch when sophisticated versions of tools such as hand axes and flint cleavers were invented as game became scarcer and more cunning. At the bottom of a cliff in the Crimea there is a graveyard of donkey fossils 30,000 years old. Could they all have fallen together accidentally over the cliff? It is unlikely since donkeys are not lemmings. Par more probably a party of human hunters deliberately drove them over so that they could cat their carcasses at leisure. It is an example of human co-ordination and organization to which people could only have been driven under social conditions of great pressure. The next Ice Age is unlikely to have any such beneficial effects. Since we have now become developed race, its effects are likely to be purely destructive. ICE AGE LESS CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE LEADS TO AN ICE AGE EMPIRICALLY, A DROP IN C02 WILL CAUSE AN ICE AGE Patrick Hughs, staff writer, 1993 Weatherwise, December. Children of the cold: our species arose and flourished in an ice-age deep freeze.// VT98-JMH Evidence of the first known ice era covers some 400 million years but is poorly dated. It has been found in North America, southern Africa, and western Australia. This glacial epoch seems to have peaked about 2.2 billion years ago. While little is known about the early positions of the primitive cores of the affected continents, they had hundreds of millions of years to wander into polar regions prior to and during the ice-age epoch. Whatever the continents’ contributions, however. some scientists think this glacial era may have been caused primarily by a precipitous drop in atmospheric carbon dioxide. They blame this principally on weathering — a chemical process whereby carbon dioxide washed out of the atmosphere by the constant rain was fixed in carbonate rocks–and, to a lesser degree, on rapidly proliferating, photosynthesizing blue-green algae. The algae replaced carbon dioxide with oxygen, which began to accumulate in the atmosphere about this time. Given the weak sun, a significant drop in carbon dioxide could have cooled the Earth dramatically and ushered in the first ice-age era. INCREASED C02 CAN DELAY THE NEXT ICE AGE BY 2, 000 YEARS WILLIAM K. STEVENS, staff writer, 1990, The New York Times, January 16. In the Ebb and Flow Of Ancient Glaciers, Clues to Next Ice Age p. 1 // VT98-JMH ”There is clearly going to be more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than there has been in any previous interglacial,” he added. ”It will soon be way above any previous natural level, and it will disappear into the oceans on a time scale of 1,000 or 2,000 years.” Some say this means that the plunge into a new ice age could be delayed by a similar interval. The peak of the super interglacial, Dr. Broecker said, would probably occur no later than the year 2200; after that would come a long, slow decline over centuries. But the timing is uncertain. James Hays, another leading glaciologist at Lamont Doherty, said ”we could go through the whole greenhouse episode and come back to normal” before the decline to the next ice age begins. WE CAN HOLD OFF THE ICE AGE BY CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING Patrick Hughs, staff writer, 1993, Weatherwise, December. Children of the cold: our species arose and flourished in an ice-age deep freeze// VT98-JMH By all the signs, nature has not finished our ordeal by ice. The glaciers and ice sheets have retreated, but they have not quit the field. Meanwhile, our interglacial respite has already lasted some 10,000 years, global temperatures seem to have peaked, and the Earth’s orbital projections predict a cooler climate ahead. This should set the stage for a long descent into the next ice age. – We humans, however, have added a new twist to nature’s script that could delay the inevitable. If we keep burning carbon rich fossil fuels until none are left, we could further increase carbon dioxide and raise global temperatures a few degrees higher than they have been in perhaps two million years. It would probably take several thousand years for such a “super-interglacial” to run its course-or maybe not. INCREASED C02 IS CRITICAL IN HOLDING OFF THE NEXT ICE AGE WILLIAM K. STEVENS, staff writer, 1990, The New York Times, January 16. In the Ebb and Flow Of Ancient Glaciers. Clues to Next Ice Age p. 1// VT98-JMH The climatic history of the last half-million years is largely a history of ice and cold, punctuated every 100,000 years or so by brief, glorious intervals of unusual warmth called interglacials. If nature takes its course, scientists say, the current interglacial – the one in which human civilization developed – should begin to end within the next 2,000 years or sooner. But nature may not take an unaltered course. Unprecedented concentrations of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could extend the present interglacial by a millennium or more and transform it into a ‘’super interglacial” with average global temperatures higher than any seen in the last million years, say a number of scientists who study the advance and retreat of the great glaciers . AN ICE AGE BEGAN IN THE 16TH CENTURY, BUT ANTHROPOGENICALLY CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING HAS PREVENTED ANY HARMFUL EFFECTS Wendy Robertson, staff writer, 1994 The Scotsman. February 3, Warming may have staved off ice age// VT98-JMH Professor Geoffrey Boulton, of Edinburgh University’s Department of Geology and Geophysics, yesterday presented a talk on climatic change at the Royal Society of Edinburgh, where scientists had gathered to discuss evidence of global warming on sea life, plants, insects and birds. He said it was possible that man’s intervention had made the planet warmer and that the first stage of the new ice age began in the 16th century. The process should have continued as part of a 10,000-year cycle, but global warming has reversed the process. ICE AGE A NEW ICE AGE COULD COME VERY QUICKLY THE CLIMATE COULD CHANGE AS QUICKLY AS THREE YEARS EUGENE LINDEN, STAFF WRITER, April 14, 1997; Time, headline: Antarctica; warnings from the ice the conventional wisdom is that climate change will be gradual and moderate. but what if it is sudden and extreme? a frozen wilderness may hold the answer, SECTION: ENVIRONMENT; Pg. 54//VT98-CJJ Entombed in the Antarctic are memories of ice ages, of volcanic eruptions, of epochal changes in winds and rains. These memories are encrypted in dust particles, rare molecules and the properties of the ice itself. The tales they contain of thousands of years of climate changes provide intimations, and warnings, of our fate. That is why people like glaciologist Kendrick Taylor of Nevada’s Desert Research Institute are drawn here. By drilling to the base of the ice sheet and extracting a 3,300-ft.-long series of ice cores, he hopes to answer new and urgent questions about the nature of global climate change. The poet Robert Frost asked whether the world would end in fire or ice. Four years ago, Taylor and other geophysicists found evidence that the answer may be both. The message, extracted from an ice core taken in Greenland, at the opposite end of the earth, was that climate can change dramatically over short periods of time. Roughly 11,500 years ago, Greenland suddenly chilled, and then 1,500 years later, it suddenly warmed. The speed of the last change-an 18 [degree] warming in some places in as little as three years-was fast enough, a meteorologist wryly commented, to capture the attention of politicians. To put a change of this magnitude in perspective, a mere 1 [degree] drop in global temperatures during the 13th century started the “Little Ice Age” that wiped out the Vikings’ Greenland colony, spurred glaciers to crush villages in Europe and contributed to periodic episodes of starvation and mass migration. A “flickering climate” (as it was dubbed by Taylor and his colleagues) would be a biblical disaster in today’s crowded world. Droughts, heat waves, floods and plagues of pests would play havoc with crops, and rapid sea-level rise would inundate cities and destroy rich agricultural lands. “The Greenland finding was like a loud noise in the dark,” says Taylor. Now he and dozens of other scientists have moved their search to Antarctica in an effort to follow up on this finding. THE TRANSITION INTO AN ICE AGE COULD OCCUR WITHIN A DECADE Michael D. Lemonick. staff writer, 1994, Time. January 31. THE ICE AGE COMETH? ;Last week’s big chill was a reminder that the earth’s climate can change at any time`// VT98-JMH If that starts happening more and more often, though, it might mean that something bigger is going on. Climatologists once thought the world eased into ice ages, with average temperatures in parts of the Northern Hemisphere falling 15 degrees over hundreds or thousands of years. During long, frigid winters and short, cool summers, snow piled up much faster than it could melt, and mile-thick sheets of ice gradually covered much of the planet’s land surface. After 100,000 years or so, scientists believed, the glaciers made a dignified retreat, stayed put for about 10, 000 years and then began to grow again. But over the past several years, researchers have dug deep into Atlantic seafloor sediments and Greenland glaciers to study the chemistry of ancient mud and ice, and they are increasingly convinced that climate change is anything but smooth. The transition from warm to frigid can come in a decade or two — a geological snap of the fingers. Says Gerard Bond, a geophysicist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Observatory: “The data have been coming out of Greenland for maybe two or three decades. But the first results were really so surprising that people weren’t ready to believe them.” TIMEFRAME ON TEMP. JUMPS INCREDIBLY SHORT Richard Monastersky, staffwriter, 1994, Science NEWS, vol. 146. July 30. “Staggering Through the Ice Ages”‘ // VT98-MG The two new Greenland cores, which match each other almost perfectly, provide dual confirmation that so called Dansgaard Oescheger events did indeed send temperatures bouncing up and down. In fact, the jumps from one extreme to the other occurred over decades, and in some cases over a few years much faster than previously deemed possible. CLIMATE CAN SHIFT IN LESS THAN A DECADE Pat Coyne, staff, 1993 New Statesman and Society, “The Ice Age Cometh” September 3 vol. 6 l/ VT98-MCGRATH There is however, an equal and opposite threat that seems to be have received far less attention – that of an ice age. Now, new evidence from ice-cores drilled through the Greenland ice sheet suggests that the Earth ’s climate , far from being essentially stable ( human activities notwithstanding) has, in the past, shifted from warm to cold, and vice versa, extra ordinarily quickly sometimes in little more than a decade. THE FULL EFFECTS OF AN ICE AGE COULD BE FELT IN 20 YEARS Robert Cooke, staffwriter, 1993, Newsday, July 20. Ice Reveals Climactic Shifts in Temperature; Scientists warn of atmosphere’s instability. P. 53 // VT98 JMH “Our first observations were really quite astounding,” said glaciologist David A. Feel. “Rather than being stably warm” like the present interglacial period, the previous warm period was broken up into a whole sequence of very abrupt, very cold events.” The discovery suggests that human societies. which are dependent on high-efficiency agriculture, may be more vulnerable to climate change than expected. Current conditions could change with surprising speed, switching from warm to icy cold in less than 20 years, according to the evidence. ICE AGE ONCE COOLING STARTS, FEEDBACK EFFECTS WILL ACCELERATE IT ICE SHEET INCREASE LEADS TO INCREASE REFLECTION OF SUNLIGHT WHICH LEADS TO GLOBAL COOLING David E. Fisher, environmental author, 1990; FIRE & ICE, P. 17 // VT98-JH To a very large extent, we have such a mirror. The ice and snow that cap the regions around the North and South Poles are exceedingly bright in sunshine because they reflect nearly all the sun’s light. A plowed dirt field, on the other hand, appears dark because it absorbs most of the sunlight, reflecting very little. If the earth were covered with dirt fields it would absorb more of the sun’s energy than today’s earth does, and temperatures would be much hotter. If the polar ice caps were to grow and encircle the earth, they would reflect away more heat and the earth would become colder. ICE SHEETS CAUSE FEEDBACK WHICH WILL MAGNIFY THE EFFECTS OF INCREASED ICE SHEETS Peter Adams, Dept. Geography Trent University, 1992, Arctic Environment: Past, Present, and Future, “Ice & Snow in the Arctic & Global Change,” P. 19// VT98-LS Not only does the global climate affect Arctic climate, but Arctic climate affects global climate, especially through changes in snow and sea ice cover. Sea ice covers the Arctic Ocean and its peripheral seas in winter and melts back perhaps 100 km from the Arctic coastline in summer. In winter it acts to insulate the atmosphere from the large heat reservoir of the Arctic Ocean and in summer it reflects back much of the solar radiation. As a result, ice cover anomalies act as a thermal lever. feeding back on the global climate system. ICE AGE A NEW ICE AGE WILL HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ICE AGE WILL CAUSE WAR, FAMINE, DISEASE, EPIDEMICS, AND CANNIBALISM World Press Review, July, 1995, Vol. 42 #7 // VT98-JMH At first glance, that seems merely a slight shift upward in average temperatures. But in fact it would mean a change, although gradual, unparalleled in recent millennia. The last time it was three degrees warmer than now was more than 100,000 years ago. Then, Central Europe had a climate like Africa’s. And just three degrees separate today from the other climatic extreme, the last ice age of 10, 000 years ago. Then, half of Europe lay under ice, and the sea level was 390 feet lower than it is today. A bitter north wind nipped at the ears of Baltic. In human history, far smaller temperature shifts have doomed kingdoms, set off wars, forced peoples into exile, and created new religions. Since the end of the last ice age, average global temperatures have never fluctuated by more than one degree. But even such a minimal cooling may have pushed the Germanic peoples southward in 375 AD. to destroy the Roman Empire. An average warming of Just one half of one degree enabled the Vikings who settled Greenland to raise cattle and sail to America. The next cold spell announced itself with huge storms. Floods in the Netherlands in 1212 drowned 300,000 people. This cooling, by just one degree, threw Europe and many other regions into a dark age. Summers became rainy and winters, colder. In many areas, grain would no longer ripen. Famine and epidemics raged. Humans and animals became unusually susceptible to disease, and cannibalism broke out . Average life expectancies fell by 10 years. Entire regions were depopulated. ICE AGE WILL LEAD TO GLOBAL WAR AND NUCLEAR EXTINCTION David E. Fisher, environmental author, 1990, Fire & Ice, P. 32// VT98-JH Is there reason for concern? After all, we did manage to exist in the last ice age. Though a definition of the precise beginnings of modern man is impossible, it is clear that Homo Sapiens has existed for at least several tens of thousands of years, a time period that extends right through the time of the great glaciers. If we survived that ice age as savages, could we not survive the next one as a sophisticated civilization? Probably not. As savages we were free and nomadic; as a civilization of nations we are constrained and immobile. When the great ice sheets began their inexorable sweep southward twenty-some thousand years ago, the human tribe as well as lower orders of animals moved ahead of them, fleeing the encroaching ice. Following their food supplies, they managed to survive and even flourish, and when the ice retreated they followed it into North America. The whole world, after all, was never entirely crushed beneath the ice, nor were temperatures everywhere below freezing. But what would happen today? If Russia became uninhabitable, where would the Russians go? If Germany were covered with ice, would the Germans be welcomes into Italy? If all of Canada and half the United States lay beneath miles of ice, would Nicaragua open its arms to receive the refugees? Not according to our past record. Global war would surely ensue, and with nuclear weapons at our fingertips could extinction be far behind? AN ICE AGE WILL CAUSE SWEDEN’S RADIOACTIVE WASTE TO LEAK FROM ITS STORAGE SITE European Energy Report, 1995 June 23 . Waste storage plan slated // VT98-JMH The Swedish model for taking care of nuclear waste has been criticized by UK expert Philip Richardson in a report for Greenpeace. The Swedish storage option, Richardson claims, will not withstand the coming ice ages, and there is a risk that radioactivity could leak from a facility built along the current lines. The storage model was developed in the 1970s by SKB, the Swedish nuclear fuel and waste management company. The main concept remains the same, though technical developments have been made. The idea is to store spent fuel and other high- and medium-level radioactive waste in facilities 500 metres down in primary rock: the fuel and waste will be placed in copper-coated steel canisters in large caverns. The caverns will be filled up with bentonite clay. ICE AGE WILL LEAD TO GLOBAL CALAMITY DWARFING ANY PREVIOUS CALAMITY David E. Fisher, environmental author, 1990, Fire & Ice P. 33 // VT98-JH Even without the threat of our self-destruction, a new ice age would surely be a calamity dwarfing any in recorded history. (It is probably true that the advent of the last ice age hastened our evolution into an efficient society by separating the strong from the weak and putting survival pressure on the strong. So, to be realistic, we today must be grateful that our ancestors had to go through that ordeal. But enough is enough. Hitler argued that war is necessary because it purifies a nation’s spirit in the cold flame of survival, but it would take a man equally as mad to claim that we would now benefit from another ice age.) And so when we saw that the average global temperature had fallen nearly 1 degree C. from the 1930s til the 1970s, we began to sweat profusely and coldly. US LEADERSHIP DISADVANTAGE SHELL A. RENEWABLE ENERGY LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN US WORLD LEADERSHIP BY EMPHASIZING RENEWABLE ENERGY, THE USA WILL BECOME THE WORLD ENERGY LEADER JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 199 7; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 4 With foresight, sufficient investment, and a well-designed national energy plan, the United States, as the worlds foremost economic power, could become the world’s undisputed leader both in renewable energy and in energy efficiency technology. B. STRENGTH OF US LEADERSHIP SETS THE PACE FOR ADDITIONAL NATO EXPANSION Newsday, March 2, 1997, HEADLINE: COVER EDITORIAL / SORE WINNER / EXPANDING NATO ISN’T IN AMERICA’S INTEREST, SECTION: CURRENTS & BOOKS; Page G01// VT98-CJJ When you’re the biggest, strongest guy on the block you can do almost anything you want. But that doesn’t make what you happen to be doing right, and it doesn’t mean that in the long run you will get away with it. That’s the situation of the United States as it moves ahead with a plan to include Eastern European nations in NATO. It’s a foolish, even potentially dangerous move, but there’s nobody around big enough to make Washington think twice about this decision. C. CLINTON ADMINISTRATION WILL DECIDE ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE A SECOND WAVE OF NATO EXPANSION Michael Dobbs, Washington Post Staff Writer, April 27, 1997; The Washington Post, HEADLINE: Lobbying for NATO Spot Intensifies; Romanian Official Latest to Visit Here in Bid for Expanded Alliance, SECTION: A SECTION; Pg. A26//VT98-CJJ NATO’s existing 16 members agree Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary should be brought into the alliance first, as the former Soviet bloc states that have made most progress toward free-market democracy. That leaves Romania and the former Yugoslav republic of Slovenia as the countries at the center of the present debate on NATO enlargement. Both are trying to persuade the Clinton administration that it makes strategic sense to include them in the first wave of expansion likely to take place by 1999. At his meetings in Washington, Severin struck a Kennedyesque tone, saying “we have not come to ask what you will do for Romania. We have come to explain to you what Romania will do for you.” In theory, the decision will be made by NATO’s 16 members when alliance heads of government meet July 8 in Madrid. In practice, however, Western diplomats and NATO officials expect that the Clinton administration, after consulting with the others, will have the final say, and will reveal its intentions during the run-up to the Madrid meeting. D. SECOND WAVE OF NATO EXPANSION WILL DESTROY RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA Agence France Presse, March 23, 1997 22:23 GSECTION: International news; HEADLINE: NATO wannabes cheer Helsinki summit// VT98-CJJ Yeltsin said Saturday that he and Clinton “did not manage to find an agreement on the question of the non-inclusion of former Soviet countries in NATO.” Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic are widely viewed as the strongest contenders for membership in a first round of NATO enlargement, which would occur at a July NATO meeting in Madrid. Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov warned that NATO’s relations with Russia would be threatened if the Atlantic alliance admitted the three Baltic states as members in a socalled “second wave” of NATO expansion. “I hope that the Baltic states will not join NATO because this would shatter the whole relationship between Russia and NATO,” Primakov said. E. MORE NATO EXPANSION WOULD BE A DISASTER Kumermann, Daniel, journalist with svobodne slovo, February 14, 1996; The Prague Post, HEADLINE: Nato Issue Becoming Bigger On The Home Front And In Russia, SECTION: Opinion//VT98-CJJ On the same day that the Czech media reported the CSSD’s new NATO approach, they also carried information about a study by the influential Russian Committee for Foreign and Defense Policy. It claims that if NATO incorporates some of the Central European countries that is, moves closer to Russia – it will damage Russia’s relations with the West, creating a “cold peace,” and will bring about a rise in Russian nationalism. The study was concluded just a few months before the Russian general elections, which produced a parliament that sent shivers down Europe’s spine. Shortly after the elections, President Boris Yeltsin, who is expected to counterbalance this communist- and nationalist-dominated assembly, gave orders that led to the cold-blooded killing of hostages in Dagestan. Another warning signal is that the study was signed by people who are considered to be liberals and democrats. Their oft-repeated logic sounds infallible: The democratic forces in Russia are too weak and need any support they can get. Any negative signal from the West – NATO enlargement, for instance- can only strengthen the forces of past evil and weaken those of future good. They suggest that their political allies in post-communist countries, in pushingfor NATO membership, are actually driving a knife into the backs of Russian democrats. LEADERSHIP-LINKS US LEADERSHIP DETERMINES PACE AND NATURE OF NATO EXPANSION NATO EXPANSION CAN ONLY OCCUR UNDER STONG US LEADERSHIP WILLIAM ODOM, DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES AT THE HUDSON INSTITUTE, SPRING1995; THE NATIONAL INTEREST, “NATO EXPANSION: WHY THE CRITICS ARE WRONG” P. 45//VT98-AWCJJ AN EXPANSION OF NATO TODAY CAN ONLY OCCUR UNDER STRONG US LEADERSHIP, AND IT MUST HAVE AS ITS PRIMARY PURPOSE THE INTERNAL TRANSFORMATION OF NEW MEMBER STATES. ONLY US LEADERSHIP ENSURES NATO EXPANSION WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY CLOSES WILLIAM ODOM, DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES AT THE HUDSON INSTITUTE, SPRING1995; THE NATIONAL INTEREST, “NATO EXPANSION: WHY THE CRITICS ARE WRONG”//VT98-AWCJJ THE SHORT ANSWER IS LEADERSHIP, ESPECIALLY US LEADERSHIP. STABLE SYSTEMS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN CREATED BY THE LEADERS OF THE MAJOR POWERS. THE CONFIGURATION OF POWER TODAY IS SUCH ONLY THE UNITED STATES CAN LAUNCH THE CONSTRUCTION OF A NEW SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT WILL NEED THE COOPERATION OF SEVERAL OTHER KEY STATES. HAVING ADEQUATE POWER, HOWEVER, IS NOT ENOUGH. LEADERSHIP WITH A STRONG SENSE OF DIRECTION AND THE PLODDING CONSISTENCY TO REMAIN ON COURSE IS NO LESS CRITICAL. YET POWER AND LEADERSHIP WILL NOT BE IF THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY CLOSES UNDER THE FORCES OF DISORDER. US LEADERSHIP IS CRUCIAL FOR NATO EXPANSION TED CARPENTER, DIRECTOR OF FOREIGN POLICY STUDIES AT CATO INSTITUTE, 1994; BEYOND NATO, P. 2//VT98-AMCJJ BUT NATO’S DEFENDERS HAVE WORKED HARD TO BUILD THE MYSTIQUE THAT THE ALLIANCE IS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT IN THE POST-COLD WAR ERA THAN IT WAS DURING THE COLD WAR. NOT ONLY DO THEY INSIST THAT NATO IS ESSENTIAL TO PREVENT THE RESURGENCXE OF INSTABILITY AN NATIONAL RIVALRIES THAT SPAWMED TWO WORL DWARS IN EUROPE, THEY ARGUE THAT WASHINGTON’S LEADERSHIP ROLE IN THE ALLIANCE, SYMBOLIZED BY THE CONTINUED DEPLOYMENT OF AMERICAN TROOPS ON THE CONTINENT, IS IMPERATIVE AS WELL. NATO IS THE ONLY INSTITUTIONAL VEHICLE FOR US INFLUENCE IN EUROPEAN AFFAIRS, ATLANTICISTS CONTEND; ANY US RETRENCHMENT ON SECURITY ISSUES WOULD, THEREFORE, JEOPARDIZE IMPORTANT AMERICAN POLITICAL ECONOMIC INTERESTS. LEADERSHIP-LINKS PROMOTING RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPANDS US LEADERSHIP RENEWABLE ENERGY R&D CREATES TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP CHRISTINE ERVIN, ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY, March 13, 1997; Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, SECTION: CAPITOL HILL HEARING TESTIMONY//VT98-CJJ However, the U.S. wind industry market share was less than 5 percent during this period of explosive growth. The wind turbine research program is an essential component of our strategy for the U.S. wind industry to recapture the technologies advantage. Consistent support for energy R&D creates a technological leadership that allow, U.S. industry to capture its share of a large and growing international energy market-the World Bank estimates that over the next 30 to 40 years developing countries alone will require at least a million megawatts of new generating capacity. (The world’s total installed capacity today is about 3 million megawatts). Sales to foreign customers create highly paid, skilled domestic employment; earn export dollars; generate tax revenue, and maintain an American visibility in foreign markets. Enabling developing countries to grow without the negative consequences of pollution is one of the most valuable forms of leadership the United States can exercise in world affairs in the years ahead. THE US GOVERNMENT MUST PROMOTE COMMERCIALIZATION OF TECHNOLOGY TO MAINTAIN LEADERSHIP DR. MARY LOWE GOOD, UNDER SECRETARY FOR TECHNOLOGY, MAY 15, 1996; Federal News Service, HEADLINE: PREPARED STATEMENT FOR U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BEFORE THE SENATE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE SUBCOMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, JUSTICE, STATE, AND THE JUDICIARY, SECTION: IN THE NEWS// VT98-CJJ It has been clear for some time that technology is playing an increasingly important role in the global economy. In large measure, the ability of a nation to grow and create prosperity for its citizens is inextricably linked to its ability to develop and commercialize new technologies. In essence, technological leadership is essential to the United States’ national interest. And it is my view that the Federal government has an essential role to play in ensuring that the United States remains a global technology leader. While the primary responsibility for U.S. competitiveness clearly lies with the private sector, it is clear that the actions of the Federal government have an enormous impact–intended or not–on the ability of U.S. firms to develop technology, incorporate it into new products and services, and bring them to market at the rapid pace demanded in today’s highly competitive global economy. Therefore, I believe that if the United States is to retain its technological leadership into the 21st century, the Federal government must work affirmatively to create a climate that is conducive to innovation–fostering technology research, development, diffusion, and commercialization. RENEWABLE ENERGY IS A POWERFUL FORM OF US LEADERSHIP Christine Ervin Assistant Secretary Energy Efficiency And Renewable Energy, Federal News Service, MARCH 19, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Statement Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs Enabling developing countries to grow without the negative consequences of pollution is one of the most valuable forms of leadership the United States can exercise in world affairs in the years ahead. Key technological gains can make for substantial differences in our nation’s competitive position in exporting renewable energy to the developing world. PRESENTLY THE US WILL NOT EXERCISE STRONG LEADERSHIP IN RENEWABLE ENERGY BECAUSE OF POLITICAL RISKS Helvarg, David, ENVIRONMENTAL WRITER, December 16, 1996; The Nation, HEADLINE: The greenhouse spin: energy companies try the ‘tobacco’ approach to evidence of global warming; United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, SECTION: No. 20, Vol. 263; Pg. 21//VT98-CJJ “Given the pressure from industry, the range of debate has really thinned out,” counters Kalee Kreider, director of the Climate Campaign at Greenpeace USA. “We’re not looking at what is needed but at what is politically feasible, which is not how I’d define strong leadership. ” The Clinton Administration is unlikely to take the political risks necessary to begin a fullscale transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies. As we go to press, the Administration is under heavy pressure from industry to delay or weaken tougher E.P.A. airpollution standards, due out the end of November. But as the heavy-weather “footprint” of global warming becomes clearer to the average citizen, a post-Clinton Administration after 2000 might be willing to confront the need for a clean-energy revolution (and make concessionary transfers of renewable-energy technologies to China, India and other developing nations). LEADERSHIP-LINKS PROMOTING RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPANDS US LEADERSHIP [P. 2] NEED INCREASE IN FUNDING FOR US ENERGY LEADERSHIP International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, April 11, 1997; SECTION: No. 7, Vol. 23, HEADLINE: DOE BUDGET: OFFICIAL DEFENDS RENEWABLE FUNDS: NEEDED TO KEEP U.S COMPETITIVE// VT98-CJJ The overall request “reflects the administration’s commitment to maximize energy productivity, prevent pollution and keep America secure,” said Christine Ervin, DoE assistant secretary for energy efficiency and renewable energy. Increased funding would keep the United States from losing world technological leadership in energy, while offsetting decreased private and federal support for renewable energy R&D. CONGRESS IS PROPOSING BUDGET CUTS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY THAT WILL DECREASE US LEADERSHIP RON HAYBRON, STAFF WRITER, July 16, 1996; The Plain Dealer, HEADLINE: RENEWABLE ENERGY A MUST FOR THE U.S., SECTION: HEALTH & SCIENCE; Pg. 7E//VT98-CJJ Romm and Curtis [Joseph Romm is acting principal deputy assistant secretary for energy efficiency and renewable energy of the U.S. Department of Energy. Charles Curtis is DOE deputy secretary] worry that budget cuts being proposed by Congress will fritter away our leadership in development of renewable energy technologies. If that happens, we could again find ourselves importing products originally developed by U.S. scientists and engineers. USA RISKS LOSING ITS LEADERSHIP IN SOLAR MARKETS BECAUSE OF UNWILLINGNESS TO FUND RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS Gary Lee, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post, September 25, 1996, Pg. A03, TITLE: Government Researchers Fear Budget Cuts Will Cool Solar Energy Work // VT98-acs Solar industry executives echo that view. “We have made considerable investments in solar and will continue to make them,” said Harvey Forest, president of Solarex, the nation’s second-largest solar company, based in Frederick, Md. “But partnerships with federal research are very helpful. It’s unfortunate that just as Congress is trying to reduce R&D funding for the industry, the Japanese government is increasing its investments in solar. If the trend keeps going in this direction, we’re bound to lose our leadership of the industry.” MOVING DECISIVELY TO EMPHASIZE RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL BENEFIT THE USA ON A GLOBAL SCALE AND INCREASE USA LEVERAGE IN INTERNATIONAL FORUMS JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 330 Moving decisively as a nation to renewables and efficiency would HAVE the beneficial effect of making our whole economy MORE competitive, creating new high-tech/high-wage jobs and industries, promoting strong competition among energy industries, and expanding U.S. energy technology exports. If we fail to lead in renewable energy and efficiency technology we will by default lose the opportunity to compete effectively globally and to meet future domestic demand with domestic prod’ products We will also cede the moral “high ground” on global environmental p issues — leverage we need in international negotiations. LEADERSHIP-LINKS OTHER LINKS TO INCREASING US LEADERSHIP US IS SETTING POOR ENVIRONMENTAL EXAMPLES WHICH UNDERMINES LEADERSHIP PHILIP SHABEHOFF, JOURNALISTS, 1996; A NEW NAME FOR PEACE: INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTALISM, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, AND DEMOCRACY, P. 217//VT98-JAHCJJ THE UNITED STATES, WHERE ENVIRONMENTALISM FIRST FLOWERED AND WHERE THE MARSHALL PLAN, THE FIRST MAJOR EFFORT TO PROMOTE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ABROAD AS AN ACT OF ENLIGHTENED SELF-INTEREST, WAS CONCEIVED, IS SETTING A PARTICULARLY PAINFUL EXAMPLE. AT THIS JUNCTURE OF HISTORY, THE UNITED STATES IS THE ONLY NATION CAPABLE OF MAKING THE UN AN EFFECTIVE CENTER OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE, THE ONLY POWER THAT CAN LEAD THE WORLD COMMUNITY ALONG THE DIFFICULT ROAD TO SUSTAINBLE DEVELOPMENT. BUT THE POLITICS THAT HAS TRIUMPHED IN THIS COUNTRY IN THE MID 1990S HAS TURNED ITS BACK ON SUCH LEADERSHIP. INSTEAD IT SEEKS TO TURN INWARD TO A NEW ISOLATIONISM THAT WOULD SLASH AND ABANDON DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, TO AN OLD RHETORIC THAT EMBRACES THE DISCREDITED AND DANGEROUS NOTION THAT WE ARE FORCED TO CHOOSE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY. IT IS A POLITICS THE PROMOTES THE PRIVATE GOOD OVER THE COMMON GOOD, THE RIGHTS OF CAPITAL, CORPORATIONS, PRIVATE PROPOERTY HOLDERS TO MAXIMIZE THEIR GAIN OVER THE DUTY OF ALL TO PROTECT THE COMMONS AND TO SHARE ITS FRUITS EQUITABLY . NEW ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY INITIATIVES ARE NEEDED TO RESTORE US LEADERSHIP IN SECURITY POLICY Paarlberg, Robert L., STAFF WRITER, October, 1996; Environment, HEADLINE: A domestic dispute: Clinton, Congress, and international environmental policy, SECTION: Vol. 38 ; No. 8 ; Pg. 16; ISSN: 0013-9157// VT98-CJJ Securing the necessary congressional cooperation to lead effectively abroad will not be easy in the years ahead. There is a feeling among members of Congress and many citizens that past environmental policy initiatives have adequately managed our most pressing national problems. In fact, most key indicators of national environmental health in the United States have shown improvement over the past several decades. This improvement does not match the global environmental situation, however. In the countries of the former Soviet Union and the developing world, environmental conditions have continued to deteriorate. The citizens of rich nations like the United States have enjoyed a dangerous degree of isolation from many of these escalating environmental problems. The renewed trend toward isolationism not only spells trouble for post-Cold War security policy but for environmental policy as well. UNILATERAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY FACILITATES INTERNATIONAL LEASDERSHIP. Paarlberg, Robert L., STAFF WRITER, October, 1996; Environment, HEADLINE: A domestic dispute: Clinton, Congress, and international environmental policy, SECTION: Vol. 38 ; No. 8 ; Pg. 16; ISSN: 0013-9157// VT98-CJJ The United States has enjoyed much greater success as an international environmental policy leader when it has been able to start the process within the domestic policy arena, first tightening policy unilaterally at home and only then seeking to extend tighter policy standards abroad. For example, U.S. leadership helped create the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer by first acting unilaterally at home. In 1977, pressures from domestic environmental groups forced Congress to amend the Clean Air Act to place a ban on chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in aerosol sprays. This step had considerable benefits. Domestic production of CFCs fell by half, which at the time implied a 25 percent fall in world production. Moreover, private U.S. companies such as DuPont began to invest in the development of ozone-safe CFC substitutes. In March 1986, DuPont announced that substitutes could be available within five years if market conditions and policies warranted the development effort. In September 1986, a coalition of U.S. industries issued a policy statement supporting international regulation of CFCs. This energized international negotiations and helped lead to the Montreal Protocol, an agreement that generalized the regulatory policy U.S. industry had already indicated it was willing to accept to the rest of the world. Richard Benedick, the principal U.S. negotiator of the Montreal Protocol, subsequently concluded that “it may be desirable for a leading country or group of countries to take preemptive environmental protection measures in advance of a global agreement.” Benedick endorsed this approach because he had seen that unilateral national actions could help legitimate change elsewhere; stimulate research into technical solutions; slow adverse trends (thus buying time for the development of technical solutions or for the conduct of multilateral negotiations); and make moral suasion by leading countries more credible. Such unilateral domestic policy steps can have powerful and valuable international consequences even when they are not followed up by an international agreement. After environmental impact assessments became part of U.S. law in 1969, U.S. officials tried repeatedly to spread this innovation abroad by negotiating a formal treaty. While these efforts met with no success, the example proved to be strong enough by itself. By 1990, some 30 countries had adopted similar legislation without any treaty obligation. Taking effective policy steps at home provides the best foundation from which to launch leadership initiatives abroad. Unless a change in Congress’s policy posture can be effected, it will be impossible for the U.S. government to provide environmental policy leadership abroad. LEADERSHIP-LINKS OTHER LINKS TO INCREASING US LEADERSHIP [P. 2] US COMPETITIVENESS LEADERSHIP LINKS ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY STRENGTH US COMPETITIVENESS Energy Report, June 24, 1996; HEADLINE: TAggressive’ energy efficiency needed former DOD chief Weinberger says, SECTION: No. 25, Vol. 24//VT98-CJJ Energy efficiency and renewable energy programs produce new and improved products that create tens of thousands of domestic jobs, strengthen U.S. competitiveness internationally and, through partnerships with the private sector, leverage limited federal resources. ECONOMIC WEAKNESS UNDERMINES US LEADERSHIP NEILS BAILEY, GARY BURTLESS, AND ROBERT LITAN, PROF. OF ECONOMICS AT UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND, 1993; GROWTH WITH EQUITY//VT98-CHERYLCJJ THE UNITED STATES CANNOT FULLY ACHIEVE ITS BROAD SECURITY OBJECTIVES WITHOUT THE COOPERATION OF OTHER NATIONS WHOSE INTERESTS ARE ALSO AFFECTED BY EVENTS AND ACTIVITIES THAT AFFECT ALL. IF AMERICANS WANT THEIR COUNTRY TO HAVE PREEMINENT VOICE IN JOINT INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS, TO LEAD RATHER THAN BE LED BY OTHER NATIONS, THE US ECONOMY MUST ALSO BE PREEMINENT, OR AT LEAST REMAIN FIRST AMONG EQUALS. THE NATION CANNOT COUNT ON ITS UNQUESTIONED MILITARY DOMINACE TO GIVE IT CLOUT IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS WHEN ECONOMIC WEAKNESS MAKES IT DEPENDENT ON THE WEALTH OF OTHER NATIONS TO ACHIEVE ITS FOREIGN POLICY GOALS. ECONOMIC DOMINANCE IS ESSENTIAL TO US GLOABL LEADERSHIP GUY POITRAS, PROFESSOR AT TRINITY,1990; THE ORDEAL OF HEGEMONY//VT98-EARCJJ FUNDAMENTALLY, WHAT IS POWER OR MORE TO THE POINT, HEGEMONIC POWER? SOME WOULD SAY THAT THE POWER OF THE HEGEMONIC STATE IS “ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY.” THIS MEANS THAT TEH UNITED STATES HAS THE POWER TO BE HEGEMONIC IF IT CAN OUT PERFORM ALL COMPETITORS BY A VERY WIDE MARGIN. OTHERS AGREE BUT PREFER THE TERM OF “RELATIVE PRODUCTIVITY” FOR THE SAME IDEA. COMPARISON IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE, SINCE A HEGEMONIC STATE HAS MORE POWER THAN ALL OTHERS, ITS DOMINANCE ACTUALLY STEMS FROM ITS RELATIVE ADVANTAGE IN MOBILIZING AND TRANSFORMING RESOURCES INTO VALUED GOODS AND SERVICES. THE MOST POWERFUL COUNTRY MAY SIMPLY HAVE THE “LEAD ECONOMY,” ONE THAT OUT PERFORMS ALL THE OTHERS AND GIVES THE STATE A SPECIAL PLACE IN THE WORLD. GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IS POWERED BY AN ECONOMIC BASE THAT MAKES IT A GIVEN COUNTRY THE FRONT-RUNNER AND ITS ECONOMY FUELED BY VERY HIGH LEVELS OF PRODUCTIVITY AND TECHNOLOGY. SUSTAINING SUCH AN ADVANTAGE TAKES MORE THAN JUST BOUNTIFUL MATERIAL RESOURCES; IT CALLS FOR “POLITICAL INNOVATION.” ULTIMATELY, THE ADVANTAGE COMES DOWN TO THE MATTER OF “RELATIVE ECONOMIC INFLUENCE” REVEALED IN THE SHARE OF THE WORLD TRADE THE HEGEMONIC STATE IS ABLE TO DOMINATE. LEADERSHIP-LINKS OTHER LINKS TO INCREASING US LEADERSHIP [P. 3] US MUST SHOW COMMITMENT TO CAP GREENHOUSE GASES TO EARN RESPECT AS GLOBAL LEADER Lewa Pardomuan, STAFF WRITER, January 14, 1997; Reuters North American Wire, HEADLINE: Indonesia criticises U.S. over global warming// VT98-CJJ Indonesia blasted the United States on Tuesday for dragging its feet on tackling the global warming issue and accused other developed nations of lacking commitment to fulfil pledges made at the 1992 Earth Summit. State Minister for the Environment, Sarwono Kusumaatmadja, said developing countries such as Indonesia should continue to push industrial nations to help ensure implementation of the summit’s call for environmentally sustainable development. “Pledges made in Rio have become more difficult to fulfil because of the lack of commitment by economically strong nations, especially the United States,” he said. “The U.S. has been very lavish in using energy, but until now it doesn’t want to ratify the Convention on Climate Change,” he told a seminar on the environment. The United States has proposed making 2010 the first deadline to meet targets in cutting industrial emissions, such as carbon dioxide, which environmentalists have blasted as a sluggish response to global warming. The emissions, widely known as greenhouse gases, are blamed by scientists for global warming, a phenomenon they say will lead to changes in weather, higher sea levels and could adversely affect food and water supplies. At least 140 countries have ratified the 1992 Climate Change Convention, signed at the Rio Earth Summit, to stabilise concentrations of greenhouse gases. In Rio, world governments pledged to save the planet’s forests, prevent global warming and protect endangered species. They also agreed to a blueprint incorporating environmental considerations into economic development around the world. “Because of its (the United States’) lack of commitment, the world lacks leadership from the party which is very responsible for the issue,” Kusumaatmadja said. “The world’s ability to make some improvement in environment management has weakened because the country which has the most advanced technology and economy, and has the strongest military does not show any certain commitment on this issue,” he added. AMERICA’S DOMESTIC POLICY DETERMINES EXTENT OF US LEADERSHIP J. BRIAN ATWOOD, ADMINISTRATOR, U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, MARCH 19, 1997; Federal News Service, HEADLINE: PREPARED TESTIMONY BEFORE THE HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE SUBCOMMITTEE ON FOREIGN OPERATIONS, SECTION: IN THE NEWS// VT98-CJJ The Cold War is over. We still have the strongest military and the strongest economy in the world. But strength alone is not a substitute for leadership. America’s position in the 21st century will depend more and more on the quality of our leadership; on the perception that we understand and appreciate the broad interests of the international community, and that we act with these interests in mind; and on the perception that we still have the best, most compelling vision of a global world order. Equally important, America’s domestic interests are now, more than ever before, inexorably linked to events that take place far from our own shores. LEADERSHIP-INTERNAL LINK ADDITIONAL NATO EXPANSION WORSENS US RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA NATO EXPANSION INCREASES PERCEPTION OF WESTERN ENCIRCLEMENT AND WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO DECREASE DEMOCRACY IN FAVOR OF RUSSIAN HARDLINERS ROGER S. WHITCOMB, POLITICAL SCIENCE AND DIR OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, KUTZTOWN UNIVERSITY, February 18, 1996; The Morning Call (Allentown), HEADLINE: REVIVED RUSSIAN NATIONALISM THREATENS TO RENEW COLD WAR, SECTION: COMMENT, Pg. A27, ANOTHER VIEW//VT98-CJJ NATO simply has too much historical baggage to serve as a creditable vehicle for a truly viable security arrangement in Europe. By simultaneously pushing for NATO expansion and further Russian disarmament, we are helping to revive the impression of a military threat from the West in the minds of many Russians. Furthermore, it is far from clear that NATO membership is the most urgent precondition for stabilizing the new democracies of Eastern Europe. Economic cooperation through full access to Western European markets is a much more promising approach. The bottom line is that the Russia emerging from the wreckage of the Soviet Union is a country in transition. We are now dealing witha more assertive Russia — a Russia that wants to revise the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe and have the U.N. sanctions against Iraq lifted, while trying to sell nuclear reactors to Iran. It is simply not realistic to expect a continental state with one foot in Europe and the other in Asia to renounce an independent foreign policy simply because it has lost an empire. Russia is also a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council with the option to veto U.N. resolutions on peace-keeping or crisis management the U.S. and NATOmay wish to make. These newly-evidenced attitudes and tendencies do not mean that a return to Cold War conflict is inevitable. But avoiding a relapse will require a careful Western strategy of managing this increasingly assertive Russian stance. In particular, it is vital to take special precautions to avoid a Russian perception of Western encirclement, since that would inevitably weaken democratic forces in Moscow in favor of the hardline nationalists. Expanding NATO risks just such an outcome. RUSSIAN DUMA CONSIDERS NATO EXPANSION ESPECIALLY EASTWARD RUSSIA’S GREATEST THREAT Marina Kalashnikova, Viktor Parfyonov, STAFF WRITERS, April 25, 1997; Russian Press Digest, HEADLINE: NATO Expands To The East, “Anti-NATO” To The West, SOURCE: KOMMERSANT-DAILY, p. 6// VT98-CJJ NATO has become a “bone of contention” not only between countries but also between branches of power in one country, Russia, KOMMERSANT- DAILY notes in its commentary, adding that with May 27 drawing closer, differences between the politicians and lawmakers over future Russia- NATO relationships tend to pile up. President Boris Yeltsin said in BadenBaden that all differences between Russia and NATO would be “ironed out” by May 27. Meeting with the NATO top brass in Brussels, Russian Defense Secretary Yuri Baturin has doubted that cardinal headway in Russia-NATO relationships “may be made in the next few months, this year, or even in the next three-four years.” The 250-member suprafactional group of deputies in Russia’s State Duma, under Vice Speaker Sergei Baburin, has recently urged President Yeltsin to submit a “comprehensive nationwide program of counteraction to NATO’s eastward enlargement” to the State Duma before mid-May 1997. (On April 25 the Duma passed a resolution designating May 9 as the day of nationwide protest against NATO’s expansion [see p. 3].) They think that NATO expansion is the “most serious threat to Russia’s existence over the past fifty years,” and therefore the whole nation, above all leaders of all power branches, should unite to ward off the threat and put an end to the “activity of the pro-NATO lobby in the mass media.” Vice Speaker Baburin met with Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov to try to “establish interaction between the executive and legislature in the face of NATO’s eastward expansion.” THE RUSSIAN DUMA VIEWS NATO EXPANSION AS THE GREATEST MILITARY THREAT AND IS GAINING SUPPORT AGAINST EASTWARD EXPANSION NATALIA PANSHINA, STAFF WRITER, April 25, 1997; TASS, HEADLINE: DUMA CALLS FOR DAY OF PROTEST AGAINST NATO EXPANSION// VT98-CJJ THE STATE DUMA PASSED A RESOLUTION ONTHURSDAY, CALLING ON CENTRAL AND LOCAL POWER BODIES, POLITICAL PARTIES,TRADE UNIONS, VETERAN, YOUTH, WOMEN’S AND OTHER PUBLIC ASSOCIATIONS TOMARK MAY 9 AS AN ALL-RUSSIA DAY OF PROTEST AGAINST NATO EXPANSION. THE VICTORY DAY HAS ALWAYS BEEN AND REMAINS ONE OF MAJOR PUBLIC HOLIDAYS. HOWEVER, WHILE REMEMBERING THE MAY OF 1945, “WE HAVE NO RIGHT TO FORGET THAT NOWADAYS AN EXTERNAL DANGER TO OUR COUNTRY BEGINS TOGROW,” THE RESOLUTION POINTED OUT. “NATO EXPANSION PLANS SIGNIFY ONE THING, NAMELY, THAT NATO’S MILITARYMACHINE WOULD APPROACH THE BORDERS OF RUSSIA AND THE GREATEST MILITARYTHREAT TO OUR COUNTRY OVER THE PAST 50 YEARS WOULD EMERGE. ” IT ISPRECISELY TO PREVENT ANOTHER “EASTWARD ADVANCE” THAT THE STATE DUMA CALLSON PEOPLE TO CARRY PLACARDS WITH ANTI-NATO SLOGANS AT MAY 9 FESTIVEMEETINGS AND DEMONSTRATIONS. VLADIMIR RYZHKOV, DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF THE OUR HOME IS RUSSIA GROUP,URGED MPS TO REFRAIN FROM PASSING SUCH A RESOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS, THERESOLUTION WAS CARRIED BY 253 VOTES TO 14. ON THE SAME DAY, THE STATE DUMA URGED NATO COUNTRIES TO TAKE ALLMEASURES TO PREVENT EUROPE FROM SLIPPING DOWN TO A NEW CONFRONTATION. IN A RESOLUTION TO THIS EFFECT, THE MPS REAFFIRMED THEIR READINESS FOR ADIALOGUE WITH THEIR COUNTERPARTS IN NATO COUNTRIE S. THE RELAXATION OF POLITICAL AND MILITARY TENSION BETWEEN EASTERN ANDWESTERN EUROPE WAS ONE OF MAJOR ACHIEVEMENTS IN THE 1990S, THE RESOLUTIONPOINTS OUT. THE RUSSIAN PARLIAMENTARIANS EXPECT THAT THE PROCESS OF EUROPEANCOUNTRIES’ DRAWING CLOSER TOGETHER WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, A NEW SERIOUSSOURCE OF TENSION IS EMERGING: NATO’S EASTWARD EXPANSION PLANS. AN ENLARGEMENT OF NATO WOULD INEVITABLY RESULT IN THE GROWTH OF MILITARY DANGER, THE PARLIAMENTARIANS BELIEVE. RUSSIA AS A COUNTRY WHICH LOST MILLIONS OF ITS PEOPLE IN THE WAR AGAINST NAZI GERMANY HAS THE RIGHT TO FEEL PARTICULAR CONCERN AND TAKE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES. LEADERSHIP-INTERNAL LINK ADDITIONAL NATO EXPANSION WORSENS US RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA [P. 2] RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS FEAR NATO EXPANSION IS THE PRECLUDE TO INVASION, YELTSIN IS TO WEAK TO PREVENT CONFLICT WITH THE WEST Carey Scott, STAFF WRITER, January 5, 1997; Sunday Times, HEADLINE: Yeltsin faces greatest test, SECTION: Overseas news//VT98-CJJ But for the West, Kohl’s visit was a serious testing of the icy Russian waters: Jacques Chirac, the French president, is to visit later this month; America’s Bill Clinton will welcome Yeltsin to Washington in March; and John Major is expected in Moscow shortly as western leaders try to steer their Russian connections back on track after Yeltsin’s long, damaging absence. Kohl and Yeltsin’s enthusiastic bear hugs yesterday could not disguise the strains oncrucial Russian relations with the West – chief among them Russia’s objections to the planned expansion of Nato, which is threatening to destroy the trust Yeltsin and Kohl, leader of Russia’s largest creditor nation, have built up overthe years. With Yeltsin out of sight and often given up for dead during the past few months, Russian policy on Nato has zigzagged, dragging a rudderless Russia into its worst post-cold war conflict yet with the West. Igor Rodionov, the defence minister, recently refused a Nato offer made in Brussels to exchange military liaison offi cers and warned the West that plans to expand Nato to include Hungary, the Czech republic and Poland would jeopardise arms control. Many frustrated Russian observers feel western leaders have yet to come up with a logical explanation as to why it is Nato, a cold war military alliance, and not the European Union, that has been chosen as the appointed vehicle for the West’s purported aims in eastern Europe – the strengthening of democracy andcloser inter-European ties. The former Soviet satellites wrung a promise of Nato membership – and protection – from Clinton during the American election last year. But to Rodionov, now supervising the withdrawal of his crushed, demoralised troops fromthe breakaway republic of Chechnya, the idea that former Warsaw Pact countries need to be protected from his army seems a cruel joke. To many Russian nationalists, the possibility that the West is planning a new invasion of a country that has already been devastated by encroaching armiestwice this century is a realistic one – however far-fetched it seems to the West. RUSSIA AND THE US. NATO EXPANSION IS STILL VIEWED NEGATIVELY Dmitry Zaks, STAFF WRITER, May 16, 1997; The Moscow Times, HEADLINE: NATO Deal Gets Grudging Plaudits, SECTION: No. 1209// VT98-CJJ Despite a generally positive response, Yeltsin did not get off free from criticism. Defense Minister Igor Rodionov, currently on an official visit to the United States, was quoted by news agencies as saying “hostility and … misunderstanding” would remain between the two sides despite the new charter. And Primakov reiterated at a press conference Thursday that he still regards NATO expansion as a “serious error.” Duma Deputy Viktor Ilyukhin, a Communist who is one of Yeltsin’s most vocal foes, accused president of deliberately trying to mislead Russians about the charters’ contents. Yeltsin’s insistence that Russia would be able to block NATO decisions it found distasteful was immediately dismissed by Washington. Some analysts in Moscow said the United States is willing to let Yeltsin put a positive spin on the new charter to help sell it at home, but only up to a point. “Clinton and Yeltsin are going through an internal political conflict – is the gray closer to black or to white?” said Irina Kobrynskaya, an analyst with Moscow’s Carnegie Center. “How this plays out will largely determine Russia’s real position in relations to NATO.” IT IS ETHNOCENTRIC AND WRONG TO THINK RUSSIA WILL VIEW NATO EXPANSION AS A BENIGN ACT TED CARPENTER, DIRECTOR OF FOREIGN POLICY STUDIES AT CATO INSTITUTE, 1994; BEYOND NATO, P. 51//VT98-AMCJJ THE IMPORT OF SUCH STATEMENTS IS THAT NO BONA FIDE DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT IN RUSSIA COULD POSSIBLY REGARD NATO’S ENLARGEMENT AS A HOSTILE ACT. ALL REASONAABLE RUSSIAN DEMOCRATS WOULD UNDERSTAND THAT NATO’S MOTIVES ARE BENIGN AND, THEREFORE WOULD NOT OBJECT TO HAVING A US-DOMINATED MILITARY ALLIANCE ON THE FRONTIERS OF THEIR COUNTRY ONLY NASTY, AUTHORITARIAN RUSSIANS . WOULD HARBOR SUSPICIONS ABOUT NATO’S INTENTIONS, AND IF SUCH RUSSIANS CAME TO POWER, NATO’S LEADERS WOULD THEN BE JUSTIFIED IN TRANSFORMING THE ALLIANCE INTO AN INSTRUMENT OF NEW CONTAINMENT STRATEGY. SUCH ATTITUDES ARE A MANIFETSATION OF FOREIGN POLICY ETHNOCENTRICISM AS WELL AS WISHFUL THINKING. LEADERSHIP-INTERNAL LINKS BRINKS: GOING BEYOND THE FIRST WAVE OF NATO EXPANSION UNIQUELY WORSENS RELATIONS RUSSIA’S GOAL IS TO UNDERMINE POLITICAL SUPPORT FOR FURTHER NATO EXPANSION MICHAEL R. GORDON, STAFF WRITER, March 4, 1997; The New York Times, HEADLINE: Russia Accepts Eastward Growth Of NATO, but Only Inch by Inch, SECTION: Section A; Page 1; Column 5; Foreign Desk// VT98-CJJ Western diplomats call it the root canal strategy. Russia, having concluded that NATO expansion is virtually inevitable, is no longer determined to stop it dead. Instead, the Russian Government has embarked on a new tactic: making the process as diplomatically painful as possible. Russia’s goal is to persuade NATO to drop the idea of expansion after the admission of Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. And even those East European nations would be accorded a kind of second-class NATO status under the current Russian plan. “The Russians have begun to negotiate seriously, and that is progress,” said a senior Western official. “But they seem to think that dragging the talks out may produce more Western concessions and that if it gets too painful the alliance will never try expansion again.” RUSSIA INTERPRETS SUMMIT AS US AGREEMENT NOT TO EXPAND NATO BEYOND FIRST THREE COUNTRIES; THEY PERCEIVE FORMER SOVIET TERRITORY CENTRAL SECURITY INTEREST CAROL J. WILLIAMS, TIMES STAFF WRITER, March 22, 1997; Los Angeles Times, HEADLINE: NEWS ANALYSIS; YELTSIN LEAVES A WINNER DESPITE NATO IMPASSE; POLITICS: HE GAINS SAY IN FUTURE ALLIANCE DECISIONS, WHICH SHOULD HELP SILENCE HIS CRITICS IN THE KREMLIN., SECTION: Part A; Page 18; Foreign Desk// VT98-CJJ Russian aides and opinion-makers telegraphed a warning throughout the two-day summit that extending the alliance umbrella might be beyond Russia’s control but that disregard of Moscow’s objections could have disastrous implications for post-Cold War relations and the fate of Yeltsin’s reform program. That lobbying helped wrest a commitment from Clinton that NATO would work out a charter governing its relations with Russia before inviting any new members at a July summit of the military alliance in Madrid. It also secured the promise of a stronger voice for Yeltsin in future NATO planning, as a joint declaration issued after the summit said Russia would have, “to the maximum extent possible where appropriate, joint decision-making and action on security issues of common concern.” No definition was disclosed by the two leaders of when and where Russian inclusion would be “appropriate,” but the language was interpreted by the Kremlin as capitulation to demands that expansion not escalate beyond the three Central European states expected to be invited in July–Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. Russia still regards former Soviet territory as of special security interest and has warned of a new arms buildup and potential confrontation should NATO penetrate its erstwhile borders. Demonstrators from the three Baltic states–Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania–dogged the summit, proclaiming “another Yalta” in which big powers were deciding the fate of Europe’s smaller countries. NOW THAT RUSSIA SEES FIRST LINE NATO EXPANSION AS INEVITABLE THEIR ATTENTION IS ON THE PREVENTION OF EXPANSION TO BALTIC STATES Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press, March 19, 1997; HEADLINE: The Baltics, SECTION: THE NEWS OF THE WEEK; Other Post-Soviet States; Vol. XLIX, No. 7, Pg. 24// VT98-CJJ The conceptual outline of Russian policy toward the Baltic countries that was announced by President Yeltsin’s press service on Tuesday [Feb. 11] and set forth in detail yesterday by the Russian Federation Ministry of Foreign Affairs is a long-awaited document. Russia’s political relations with Estonia and Latvia are at an impasse, which can be ended only if one or both parties show goodwill. Russia has finally stopped trying to intimidate its Baltic neighbors with economic sanctions and saying that the Baltic countries are “nothing” to it -1% of its trade turnover — while at the same time the RF is “everything” to the Baltics, accounting for almost three-fourths of the Baltic countries’ gross national product. Russian politicians and diplomats have now started talking about the “exceptional importance” of relations with the Baltic countries. At the same time, it is obvious that a major political game underlies this long-awaited and unexpected document. It is no accident that its appearance coincided with the height of the Kremlin’s bargaining with the West over NATO expansion. Having recognized that expansion is inevitable and reconciled itself to the identity of the “first-in-line” candidates for admission, the Kremlin is apparently trying to consolidate its hold on its last defensive line, with the intention of preventing any further expansion of the alliance through the inclusion of former USSR republics, especially the Baltic countries. The essence of the political compromise that may be reached between the West and Moscow on the NATO question will probably be a guarantee that the Baltic countries will not be included on the list of aspirants for NATO membership. Such a compromise would not cost the West very much, while for Russia it would be an opportunity to show that its opponents have taken its interests into account. The policy concept for Russian-Baltic relations formulates, in unusually tactful wording, the ideas that it would be inadvisable for the Baltic countries to enter NATO, that this would create a “serious barrier” between them and Russia and, finally, that Russia is prepared to give its neighbors some kind of security “guarantees” and even to take some “unilateral steps” in this direction. LEADERSHIP-INTERNAL LINKS BRINKS: GOING BEYOND THE FIRST WAVE OF NATO EXPANSION UNIQUELY WORSENS RELATIONS [P.2] THE AGREEMENT INCREASES PARLIAMENT AND PUBLIC FEAR OF NATO THREAT Peter Ford, Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor, May 15, 1997; The Christian Science Monitor, HEADLINE: Europe’s Stability Braced by Charter// VT98-CJJ Yeltsin has promised that he would submit the text of a NATO charter to the oppositiondominated Duma, the lower house of parliament, for approval, although he is not obliged by Russian law to do so. That move, however, risks underlining just how broad the opposition to NATO expansion is through all shades of Russian political opinion. Beyond the hard-liners who do not believe that any sort of agreement with the West can reduce the threat that NATO poses, an overwhelming majority fear that Solana was never ready to make the kind of concessions Russia needed. “I doubt whether Russia got 50 percent of what it wanted on the military level, and I’m not sure Yeltsin will be able to sell this to the Duma,” says Mr. Pushkov. “It is certainly not going to be smooth.” YELTSIN SIGNING AN IMPERFECT AGREEMENT WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL CONFLICT WITH PARLIAMENT Timothy Heritage, STAFF WRITER, May 13, 1997; The Reuter European Community Report, HEADLINE: RUSSIAN EXPERTS WARN YELTSIN OVER QUICK NATO DEAL//VT98-CJJ The council [Advisory Council on Foreign and Defence Policy] said an imperfect deal would fail to satisfy Yeltsin’s commmunist and nationalist opponents and would increase the risk of the Kremlin running into conflict with the opposition-dominated lower house of parliament. It said opposition in parliament would reduce the chances of the State Duma, the lower house, ratifying the 1993 SALT-2 strategic nuclear arms reduction treaty and other arms accords. “In this case the whole system of agreements on strategic nuclear arms reached by Moscow and Washington in the last 10 years would look doubtful,” the council said. It said one advantage of continuing negotiations after the Madrid summit was that it might then be clearer which countries were likely to be in the second wave of NATO expansion, making it easier to determine what was at stake under enlargement. Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic are expected to be in the first wave, with Romania and Slovenia hoping to join them. Moscow fears the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia might be in a second wave, despite opposition from Russia. The council’s declaration highlighted the concerns of some Russian politicians that Moscow may be rushing into a deal from which it gains little or nothing of substance. The declaration was signed by experts including council head Sergei Karaganov, who is also a member of Yeltsin’s loose advisory Presidential Council, Alexei Arbatov, deputy head of parliament’s defence committee, and Vyacheslav Nikonov, who advised Yeltsin during his re-election campaign. LEADERSHIP-INTERNAL LINKS SECOND WAVE NATO EXPANSION WILL BE OF CRITICAL IMPORTANCE RUSSIA IS PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO NATO EXPANSION INTO BALTIC STATES MICHAEL R. GORDON, STAFF WRITER, March 4, 1997; The New York Times, HEADLINE: Russia Accepts Eastward Growth Of NATO, but Only Inch by Inch, SECTION: Section A; Page 1; Column 5; Foreign Desk// VT98-CJJ But the two sides are still at odds over Russian demands that no NATO installations be erected on the territory of new NATO members and that no foreign forces be deployed there. And while NATO wants to keep the door open for the Baltic states and other members of the former Soviet Union to join, Moscow wants to slam that door shut. “Do you want us to applaud if the military infrastructure we established in these countries were to be occupied by NATO?” Mr. Primakov asked during a visit to Copenhagen, referring to the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. “If it happens it will undermine our relations with NATO entirely.” RUSSIA-NATO RELATIONS WILL BREAKDOWN IF BALTIC STATES ARE INCLUDED Agence France Presse, March 23, 1997; HEADLINE: NATO wannabes cheer Helsinki summit, SECTION: International news// VT98-CJJ Russian nationalists fumed at the summit outcome; Russian Communist Party boss Gennady Zyuganov called it “a crushing foreign policy defeat.” Before leaving for home, Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov said Russian-NATO ties would be jeopardized if a second wave of eastern European NATO members included the Baltic states. “I hope that the Baltic states will not join NATO because this would shatter the whole relationship between Russia and NATO,” Primakov said. NATO Secretary General Javier Solana, speaking to the German newspaper Bild, said the alliance “remains open to all European democracies that wish to join us” — including the Baltic states. “NATO is not a closed society,” he said in an interview to appear on Sunday. Romania, which has an outside chance of being among the first new NATO members, indicated through its foreign minister that the question of membership was none of Russia’s business. “Romania believes that all decisions on enlarging NATO belong to the member countries… and should not be the subject of a third-country veto,” it said US IS COMMITTED TO EXPANDING NATO TO THE BALTICS ALAN PHILIPS, STAFF WRITER, March 20, 1997; The Daily Telegraph, HEADLINE: Yeltsin faces test of his abilities to stay in the ring HELSINKI SUMMIT// VT98-CJJ But blandishments cannot hide the fact that the Moscow-Washington strategic axis is weakening. After years of Russian reform, there is confusion in Washington about where the Kremlin lies – is Russia a partner? Or a potential enemy? If it is something in between – a Third World economy armed with rusting nuclear missiles – then is too much time being devoted to it? Mr Clinton has made it his foreign policy priority to maintain a stable strategic relationship with the Kremlin. But his new Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, has made clear that Washington’s priority lies in expanding the Nato alliance as far east as possible, though this could never include the Russian bear. “Neither the president nor I are going to bargain away the rights of the Central Europeans,” she said. “Nato enlargement will remain on track. The first new members will not be the last, and we will exclude no European democracy from future consideration.” To the Kremlin it appears as if Mrs Albright intends to bring Nato right up to the borders of Russia, including former members of the Soviet Union such as the Baltic states, and perhaps even Ukraine, whose independence most Russians find hard to accept. CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS ARE PUSHING FOR SECONDWAVE EXPANSION Martin Sieff, STAFF WRITER, May 14, 1997; The Washington Times HEADLINE: Havel fights on Hill for place in NATO; GOP leaders back Czech Republic, SECTION: Part A; WORLD; Pg. A9//VT98-CJJ Republican leaders in the Senate seemed eager to reassure Mr. Havel on the Czech Republic’s entry. They also backed his concern that the conditions of NATO membership should not be diluted by U.S. or NATO commitments to Russia being negotiated. “President Havel has stood firm despite threats from Russia. The West must do the same,” Mr. Lott said in a statement. “I remain concerned that we are establishing a formal relationship between NATO and Russia before new members have even been invited to join NATO.” Sen. William V. Roth Jr., Delaware Republican and president of the North Atlantic Assembly, NATO’s parliamentary arm, pledged bipartisan cooperation with Mr. Clinton in expanding the alliance. “This is a critically important process,” he said. He added that Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., Delaware Democrat, intends “to work hand in hand with the Clinton administration as the alliance expands eastward.” House Republicans plan to keep pressure on the White House to push on with NATO expansion after the first wave of countries is accepted. Rep. Benjamin A. Gilman, New York Republican and chairman of the House International Relations Committee, tomorrow is expected to introduce a financial authorization bill for $50 million to help integrate the new NATO members, congressional sources said. The bill will commend Romania and the three Baltic states – Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia – as prime candidates for the second wave of NATO expansion, these sources said. Mr. Havel has expressed concern over the West’s “excessive caution” in failing to stop the Bosnian conflict earlier and in its approach to NATO expansion. LEADERSHIP-INTERNAL LINKS CONVENTIONAL DEFENSES OF NATO EXPANSION MUST BE REJECTED CONVENTIONAL WISDOM THAT SAYS NATO EXPANSION IS INEVITABLE MUST BE REJECTED James Klurfeld, EDITOR OF NEWSDAY’S EDITORIAL PAGES, February 20, 1997; Newsday, HEADLINE: BLUNDER IN THE MAKING: U.S. PUSH TO WIDEN NATO, SECTION: VIEWPOINTS; Page A44// VT98-CJJ Enlarging NATO to include nations of Eastern Europe is a bad idea whose time _ unfortunately _ has come. The issue between now and the meeting in Madrid, Spain, in July when formal invitations are to be issued to Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic is whether it is really too late to turn back. If you listen to the conventional wisdom in foreignpolicy circles, it is too late. The price of the United States’ changing its policy would be too high and the disappointment of the Eastern European nations would be too great. But, as is often the case, the conventional wisdom isn’t necessarily correct. None other than George Kennan, the man who devised the policy of containment of the Soviet Union and who has been a leading analyst of Russia and Eastern Europe for a good part of this century, has said that moving ahead pell-mell with enlargement would be the biggest foreign-policy blunder of the post-Cold War period. It could, Kennan says, result in Russia being a hostile force in Europe again. And Kennan is not alone among Russian and foreign-policy experts saying this. Enlarging NATO at this time is a mistake not only because the move is adamantly opposed by Russia and will play into the hands of the antidemocratic, xenophobic forces there, but because, as John Hopkins’ foreign policy expert Michael Mandelbaum has said, it is hard to imagine a good reason. Because at the outset only a few Eastern European nations will be allowed in, enlargement will have the immediate and maybe permanent impact of drawing new boundary lines in Europe. Why do that? How will the nations not part of NATO (Albania? Ukraine? Lithuania?) be treated? Certainly, it is understandable why the nations of Eastern Europe want into NATO _ they don’t trust the Russians. But why would the move be in the foreign-policy interests of the United States? The underlying problems with this policy are confirmed by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright’s eagerness to find a formula that will placate the Russians. Slowly but surely, a foreign-policy debate on this matter is beginning to take place as it should. This would be a new treaty commitment that would treat an attack on an Eastern European member of NATO as an attack on the United States and that would have to be approved by the Senate. But the supporters of the policy are saying forget the debate; it’s too late. Washington just can’t turn back. It is a fait accompli. ALL ARGUMENTS IN FAVOR OF NATO EXPANSION ARE EASILY DISCREDITED John Gerard Ruggie, the Burgess Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Columbia University, 1997 Winter; The Washington Quarterly, HEADLINE: Consolidating the European Pillar: The Key to NATO’s Future, SECTION: EUROPE’S FUTURE; Vol. 20, No. 1; Pg. 109// VT98-CJJ Three main arguments have been advanced in favor of expansion. The first contends that it will deter any residual or future threats of Russian aggression in Central and Eastern Europe, and reassure the countries of that region that they will be defended from it. Skeptics counter that this move has all the makings of a self-unfulfilling prophecy, potentially creating the very condition it is intended to hedge against. As Philip Zelikow, a former Bush administration official, explains describing one of the three likely early admits: “There are no acute areas of political tension between Poland and Russia, other than those created by the NATO enlargement issue itself.” The second argument in support holds that expansion is necessary to avoid the existence of a security vacuum between Germany and Russia — an area Kissinger has described as a strategic “no-man’s land.” \ Skeptics respond that the notion of a security vacuum is a metaphor, not a well-tested hypothesis, and thus is a dubious guide to policy. Moreover, by including a small number of new states within its defense perimeter, NATO would specifically exclude and, thereby, possibly degrade the security of others that have greater reason to be worried to start with — notably the Baltic states and Ukraine. No current scenario for NATO expansion includes these countries. The term “Koreanization” has gained currency to depict this result, referring to Dean Acheson’s failure, in his January 1950 National Press Club speech, explicitly to include South Korea within the U.S. defensive perimeter. The third argument has to do with locking in democratic gains and economic reforms as well as containing ethnic conflicts. We have already noted that NATO lacks instruments to accomplish these tasks whereas the promise of EU membership offers considerable leverage. Skeptics add that Russians left behind in the former Soviet republics constitute by far the strategically most significant ethnic minority in the entire region -again, most notably in the Baltics and Ukraine. Current plans for NATO expansion would do nothing to relieve that problem and, on the contrary, could worsen it by encouraging nationalist factions in Moscow to demand greater protection for ethnic Russians in the “near abroad” as NATO advances toward them. LEADERSHIP-INTERNAL LINKS NEW RUSSIA-NATO CHARTER DOES NOT RESOLVE THE DIFFICULTIES THE CHARTER DOES NOT SOLVE THE REAL PROBLEMS. THERE IS STIL SHAKY GROUND Peter Ford, Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor, May 15, 1997; The Christian Science Monitor, HEADLINE: Europe’s Stability Braced by Charter// VT98-CJJ But some Russian experts are concerned that Moscow had made too many concessions. “If the charter is … a declaration of intent that doesn’t solve the real problems, I am afraid that it will prove very shaky ground for future cooperation with NATO,” says Alexei Pushkov, a prominent foreign-affairs commentator here. DESPITE THE NEW CHARTER THERE IS STILL HOSTILITY BETWEEN PRESENT RUSSIAN ASSEMBLY WILL NOT SIGN THE ACCORD WHICH WILL DELAY ARMS CUTS AND MAINTAIN COLD WAR POSTURE MICHAEL R. GORDON, STAFF WRITER. May 16, 1997; NEW YORK TIMES, HEADLINE: NATO Pact Clouds Fate of Arms Cuts, A Yeltsin Aide Says, SECTION: Section A; Page 1; Column 6; Foreign Desk// VT98-CJJ But Mr. Rybkin, who knows the Parliament well from his days as its speaker, expressed the prevailing pessimistic view. The security adviser said that so many parliamentary deputies were so antagonistic to the accord that Washington might have to wait years until a new, younger generation won election to the assembly. “We have some precedent in relations with the United States where we sort of bypassed one treaty and caught up with the next one,” Mr. Rybkin said, suggesting that Washington might be well advised to forget about Start 2 and concentrate on Start 3. But the Clinton Administration has insisted it will not proceed with Start 3 unless Start 2 is approved. Andrei V. Kozyrev, the pro-Western former Foreign Minister and a member of Parliament, also said in a recent interview that chances of the Parliament approving the Start 2 treaty this year were “nil.” Specialists said that a Russian refusal to ratify Start 2 would almost certainly prompt the United States to delay arms cuts, putting both sides in the awkward position of retaining cold-war-size arsenals. The United States currently has 8,100 warheads and bombs while the Russians have about 6,700, not including warheads that have been removed from missiles in Ukraine and shipped to Russia, according to estimates by the private Arms Control Association. “This is going to put the whole arms-control process in question,” said Spurgeon Keeny, president of the Arms Control Association. LEADERSHIP-INTERNAL LINKS A SUPERIOR OPTION WOULD BE TO NOT EXPAND NATO, AND SOLVE EUROPEAN PROBLEMS BY ALLOWING EUROPE TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM THROUGH EXPANSION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION US LEADERSHIP IN NATO EXPANSION PROCESS POSES RISKS, EUROPEAN LED ENLARGEMENT IS VASTLY SUPERIOR John Gerard Ruggie, the Burgess Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Columbia University,1997 Winter; The Washington Quarterly, HEADLINE: Consolidating the European Pillar: The Key to NATO’s Future, SECTION: EUROPE’S FUTURE; Vol. 20, No. 1; Pg. 109// VT98-CJJ It should be noted that few of the risks attending the projection of Western security guarantees eastward — in particular, the danger of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy with regard to Russia, and potentially worsening the security situation of excluded states — are posed by a European-led process: via the WEU, or by EU enlargement coupled with simultaneous NATO expansion. It is the centrality of the U.S. component of a NATO-only expansion that creates the problems. Clearly, a WEU-led process would require that further progress first be made on some of the unresolved ESDI issues discussed above. And EU enlargement would require the West Europeans to pay the greater price. But the ESDI changes are desirable in their own right, as we have seen. And there is every reason to expect Western Europe to take responsibility for integrating the East, just as the United States did for Western Europe in the postwar years. This last point suggests the next. All the attention that the possibility of NATO expansion has attracted has let the EU off the hook. Opening up EU markets to the exports of Central and East European countries would do more to support their economic and political transitions than any act or utterance by NATO. No single external measure would do more to sustain reforms in Poland than reform of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy. Yet U.S. policymakers as well as leaders in Central and Eastern Europe have blandly accepted the EU’s contention that its enlargement is so complex and so costly that, ipso facto, it cannot take place for some years. As Zelikow shrewdly observes: “It is hard to avoid the impression that NATO membership is valued [by East and West Europeans alike] mainly as an alternative, largely symbolic gesture of inclusion . . .” Washington’s bipartisan triumphalist attitude toward NATO expansion permits Europe to get away with this. US LED NATO EXPANSION PREVENTS RESOLUTION OF EUROPEAN UNION-NATO RELATIONSHIP John Gerard Ruggie, the Burgess Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Columbia University,1997 Winter; The Washington Quarterly, HEADLINE: Consolidating the European Pillar: The Key to NATO’s Future, SECTION: EUROPE’S FUTURE; Vol. 20, No. 1; Pg. 109// VT98-CJJ The issues concerning the relationship between NATO and the EU, then, go to the very heart of both organizations and are truly among the most intellectually complex and politically charged the alliance has ever faced. Serious missteps in any direction could undermine the transatlantic security community. Accordingly, they deserve far more attention than they have received, especially in the United States. Moreover, none of these issues is made easier by NATO expansion, on which U.S. attention has been riveted. In fact, expansion makes several of them all the more difficult to resolve. NATO EXPANSION FUELS MILITANT NATIONALISTS IN RUSSIA WHILE DISPLACING THE ONLY REAL SOLUTION- INTEGRATION INTO THE EUROPEAN UNION Sacramento Bee, February 27, 1997; HEADLINE: NATO COURTS RUSSIA, SECTION: EDITORIALS; Pg. B6// VT98-CJJ Moscow’s official response remained negative, although President Boris Yeltsin later said he sees the makings of a compromise when he meets next month in Helsinki with President Clinton. That hint of a Russian thaw is encouraging; yet expanding NATO remains a dubious idea, for several reasons: It imperils Russian ratification of START II, a sweeping nuclear arms-reduction pact; it feeds Russian ultranationalists’ claim that NATO’s eastward expansion is a military threat; and it sidetracks what ought to the first order of business — bringing Central European countries into the European Union, thus promoting the economic growth that breeds security as much as anything. LEADERSHIP-INTERNAL LINKS A SUPERIOR OPTION WOULD BE TO NOT EXPAND NATO, AND SOLVE EUROPEAN PROBLEMS BY ALLOWING EUROPE TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM THROUGH EXPANSION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION [P. 2] EUROPEAN UNIFICATION THROUGH EU ACCESSION IS KEY TO SECURITY-NATO EXPANSION ENSURES FAILURE John Gerard Ruggie, the Burgess Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Columbia University,1997 Winter; The Washington Quarterly, HEADLINE: Consolidating the European Pillar: The Key to NATO’s Future, SECTION: EUROPE’S FUTURE; Vol. 20, No. 1; Pg. 109// VT98-CJJ Moreover, as Francois Heisbourg correctly notes, continued success of European unification is the critical factor in determining whether Western Europe itself will remain a functioning security community or revert to a pre-1914 balance-of-power system, with all the potential sources of instability that would entail. Outside a successful EU, there is no guarantee that the Franco-German partnership would hold, for example, or that Germany would not pose heightened security concerns in the Eastern half of the continent, including Russia. At best, Western Europe without a successful EU would be fragmented and inward-looking, and it would likely cast doubt on the future of NATO itself. In addition, the EU is better equipped than NATO to deal with many of the non-military tasks that the United States, in particular, has sought to place on NATO’s shoulders vis-a-vis Central and Eastern Europe. The benefits of associate status and, even more so, membership — from lower entry barriers for exports to transfer payments — provide the EU with far greater day-to-day leverage over the states in its orbit to reinforce economic and democratic reforms and to encourage the protection of minority rights. And the desire to sustain European integration is by far the most effective deterrent against EU members’ being drawn into opposing sides of ethnic or any other kinds of conflicts on the EU’s periphery. NATO lacks concrete leverage for such tasks. Indeed, it has shown itself to be incapable of resolving the most serious ethnic conflict among its members (Cyprus), while accommodating member states that have, at one time or another, been decidedly nondemocratic in character (Greece and Portugal). Finally, the quest for NATO membership by Central and East European countries is not driven primarily by specific threats to their security. Poland and Hungary have shortened the terms of military conscription, and the Polish and Czech armies have reduced some divisions and disbanded others — hardly actions of states that feel militarily threatened. Rather, as Czech President Vaclav Havel has eloquently described it, these countries are asking for affirmation that they belong to the West: “If we in ‘postcommunist countries’ call for a new order, if we appeal to the West not to close itself off to us, and if we demand a radical reevaluation of the new situation, then this is not because we are concerned about our own security and stability. . . . We are concerned about the destiny [in our countries] of the values and principles that communism denied, and in whose name we resisted communism and ultimately brought it down.” But that desire is far more effectively met by practical economic, social, and political ties with their West European neighbors in the EU than by the mere extension of NATO security guarantees. US LED NATO EXPANSION IS ILL-CONCEIVED- EUROPEAN INTEGRATION AVOIDS RISKS John Gerard Ruggie, the Burgess Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Columbia University,1997 Winter; The Washington Quarterly, HEADLINE: Consolidating the European Pillar: The Key to NATO’s Future, SECTION: EUROPE’S FUTURE; Vol. 20, No. 1; Pg. 109// VT98-CJJ NATO is central to all “what now? ” considerations concerning the transatlantic security community. In U.S. political circles, especially on Capitol Hill, attention has focused almost entirely on NATO expansion into Central and Eastern Europe as “the key security question facing the West.” This preoccupation is largely driven by three factors: a widely held belief that expansion is the most effective means of sustaining NATO and, thereby, of maintaining a vital U.S. role in European security relations; a genuine desire to reduce security anxieties of Central and East European states by including them in a broader security community; and, perversely on the part of some in Congress, the belief that, no matter how it is packaged, current scenarios for NATO expansion entail an anti-Russian element. In contrast, I argue that deepening the relationship between NATO and the EU is more critical to the long-term future of the transatlantic security community than immediate NATO expansion; that pushing ahead with current plans to admit new NATO members, far from sustaining the transatlantic security community, potentially undermines it; that current expansion plans permit EU members to postpone adjusting their own institutions and practices to accommodate their Eastern neighbors; that a European-led eastward expansion delivers greater promise, poses fewer risks and is more equitable vis-a-vis the United States; and that such an overall strategic package is closely in keeping with the initial plans for NATO that its U.S. founders had in mind. LEADERSHIP-IMPACTS NATO EXPANSION SHIFTS STRATEGIC BALANCE IN THE WORLD AND RISKS WAR NATO’S EASTWARD EXPANSION IS VERY DANGEROUS AND PUSHES RUSSIA TO ALLY WITH CHINA, INDIA, AND OTHER ASIAN-PACIFIC COUNTRIES Sergei Belyaev, STAFF WRITER, April 17, 1997; Russian Press Digest, HEADLINE: Shadow Of NATO Hovers Over Russia, SOURCE: NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA, p. 2//VT98-CJJ “I AM A REPRESENTATIVE OF THE RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT IN THE NORTHATLANTIC ASSEMBLY (FIVE MEMBERS OF THE STATE DUMA AND FIVE MEMBERS OF THEFEDERATION COUNCIL), AND AFTER SEVERAL MEETINGS WITH NATO OFFICIALS ICLEARLY UNDERSTOOD THE COURSE THEY ARE FOLLOWING. THEY MEET ALL OUROBJECTIONS TO NATO’S EXPANSION TO THE EAST WITH ONE AND THE SAME PHRASE:”THE DECISION HAS BEEN TAKEN, IT WILL BE PUT INTO EFFECT, AND RUSSIA HASNO RIGHT OF VETO. ” OUR CONVERSATIONS RESEMBLE THOSE OF THE TWO MEN, OFWHOM ONE IS BLIND AND THE OTHER IS DEAF. WE TELL THEM ABOUT THE NEED FOREQUAL NATIONAL SECURITY, AND THEY TRY TO PERSUADE US THAT SECURITY WILLBE GUARANTEED FOR RUSSIA. BUT WHEN WE COMPARE THE CONVENTIONAL ARMAMENTS,THE RESULT IS ONE AGAINST FIVE, TO THE DISADVANTAGE OF RUSSIA,” VOLKOVSAID. NATO’S EXPANSION TO THE EAST IS A VERY DANGEROUS IDEA, THE RUSSIANLAWMAKER STRESSED. “LAST DECEMBER I ATTENDED A SEMINAR IN THE BALTICREGION AND ASKED MY COLLEAGUES FROM THE BALTIC REPUBLICS: ‘IF NATODEMANDS THAT YOU DEPLOY FOREIGN TROOPS ON YOUR TERRITORY, WILL YOU DOIT?’ THE ANSWER WAS ALWAYS THE SAME: ‘YES, WE SHALL. ‘ I ASKED ANOTHERQUESTION: ‘AND IF IT COMES TO THE DEPLOYMENT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS?’ ‘WESHALL DEPLOY THEM TOO,’ WAS THE ANSWER. THIS IS WHY THE SITUATIONCONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FOR US, AND WE SHOULD TURN OURATTENTION TO THE EAST. WE SHOULD MAINTAIN GOOD RELATIONS WITH CHINA,INDIA AND OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE ASIAPACIFIC REGION, IN ORDER TO ENSURETHE SECURITY OF RUSSIA,” VOLKOV STRESSED. THE US LED NATO NATO EXPANSION WILL ISOLATE RUSSIA CAUSING THE FORMATION OF A NEW MILITARY BLOC AND SPURRINS A NEW ARMS RACE Xinhua News Agency, DECEMBER 18, 1996; HEADLINE: yearender: moscow keeps saying “no” to nato expansion//VT98-CJJ the north atlantic treaty organization’s eastward expansion has become the central point at issue between russia and western powers as moscow keeps saying “no” to the u.s.-led military bloc’s determined enlargement plans. the row between russia and nato member states began to boil when leaders of the 16-nation alliance officially announced their plans to expand nato eastwards at the brussels summit in january 1994. the enlargement plans, aimed at taking in former moscow-led warsaw pact countries in central and eastern europe, is regarded as a major step by the west to consolidate their victory in the cold war and to contain russia. observers believe the security balance of europe will be entirely broken up once the eastward expansion of nato is achieved. thewarsaw pact bloc, dissolved after the collapse of the soviet union in the early 1990s, was the arch rival of nato in the cold war era. russia reacted strongly to nato’s enlargement plans. outlining the kremlin’s foreign policy at a parliament session in february, russian president boris yeltsin stressed that nato’s expansion would result in geopolitical changes which, he said, would seriously harm russia’s political and military interests and threaten its security. foreign minister yevgeny primakov warned that the enlargement could only lead to the creation of new division lines and political-military confrontation in europe. defense minister igor rodionov even threatened to point russia’s nuclear missiles at those countries which joined nato. “it (natoexpansion) could even come to us redirecting our missiles at certain european countries entering nato (all the more so if these countries agree to alliance nuclear weapons being positioned on their territory),” he told the nezavisimaya gazeta newspaper in late november. rodionov also threatened to form a new military bloc involving other member countries of the commonwealth of independent states (cis), all former soviet republics, to review the 1990 treatyover conventional forces in europe (cfe) and to refuse to ratify the start-2 treaty between moscow and washington on reducing strategic nuclear arsenals. “it is entirely possible that we will face a need to strengthen our southern, western and northwestern forces without looking at the agreement limiting conventional weapons in europe,” he warned. politicians of the russian opposition showed rare unity with the kremlin on this issue. they believe the enlargement of nato would further isolate russia politically and militarily and break up the balance of the conventional forces in europe. despite moscow’s strong opposition, nato refused to go back on its plans. nato secretary generaljavier solana stressed nato’s determination on several occasions. he said the alliance would carry out its enlargement plans whatever happened. united statespresident bill clinton declared that non-nato states didn’t have a right to vetoany decision of the bloc to take in new members. at a two-day meeting in brussels earlier this month, nato foreign ministers announced that an enlargement timetable would be unveiled and a list of the first new nato memberswould be named at a nato summit scheduled for next july in madrid. under a u.s.initiative, nato will begin to accept former warsaw pact nations in 1999, the 50th anniversary of the founding of nato. LEADERSHIP-IMPACTS UNSTABLE RUSSIA RISKS ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR CONFRONTATIONAL RUSSIA FACILITATES EMERGENCE OF AUTHORITARIAN REGIME SERGEI ROGOV, DIRECTOR, Federal Information Systems Corporation, Official Kremlin Int’l News Broadcast, March 24, 1997, MONDAY, SECTION: NEWS/CURRENT EVENTS, HEADLINE: PRESS CONFERENCE WITH USA AND CANADA STUDIES INSTITUTE OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES //VT98-JAH I think that some of our politicians should give thought to what the possible alternative is. To decide on a confrontation with the West simply because NATO expansion does not suit us, such an emotional reaction may have very grave geopolitical consequences for Russia. Today Russia’s GDP is 25 times less than that of NATO. Our military spending is more than 10 times less than the military expenditures of NATO. Russia will not be able to withstand a new cold war, a new arms race, as the Soviet Union was unable to withstand them although it had much greater possibilities.. This means that this is a counterproductive and very dangerous stand. A new confrontation will require not only a military economic mobilization, but also a certain political regime in the country, that by means of authoritarian or even totalitarian methods would be able to ensure such an economic mobilization. I think this would put paid on the Prospects of economic and political reforms in Russia. AS THE MILITARY BECOMES UNSTABLE, RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEM DETERIORATES BRUCE BLAIR, Brookings Institution, FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, August 22, 1995 // VT98-jah Unfortunately, these are no small feats to guarantee in Russia today. We must recognize the extraordinary difficulty of maintaining cohesive nuclear command and control when the political system is so chaotic and so strained by social and economic pressures. The absence of a stable political system replete with effective institutional checks and balances spells trouble for the nuclear chain of command: fuzzy authority and the potential for sudden shifts of allegiance that could cause a breakdown at the very heart of the nuclear command system. RUSSIA IS INCREASING ITS RELIANCE ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS WHILE ITS SYSTEM TO CONTROL: THE WEAPONS IS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING. ITS NUCLEAR ELITE IS NOT UNDER THE CONTROL OF YELTSIN Dr. Bruce Blair, a nuclear control analyst for the Brookings Institution, 1996 [CNN TODAY October 24, 1996 HEADLINE: CIA Report Suggests Russia Nuclear Forces Are Not Secure//VT98 -jah So it's very important that the cohesion of the top echelon of the Russian nuclear control remain intact in face of rising political turbulence. And lastly, the report notes that Russia continues to rely eve more heavily than ever on nuclear weapons because of the disintegration of its regular conventional forces. That their missiles remain on hair trigger and yet, at the same time, their early warning radars -- ground radars and satellites -- are deteriorating. So there is a growing danger in their view of a false alarm triggering a launch of Russian missiles. MISCALCULATION IS INEVITABLE WHEN THE BRINK OF NUCLEAR WAR IS REACHED WILLIAM E. BURROWS AND ROBERT WINDREN, 1994; CRITICAL MASS; THE DANGEROUS RACE FOR SUPERWEAPONS IN A FRAGMENTING WORLD P. 498//VT98-CJJ THE MAD ARGUMENT THAT WORKS IS AS FLAWED AS AN EPISDEMOLOGICAL STUDY THAT USES A DOZEN SUBJECTS. NOT ONLY IS FORTY FIVE YEARS A RELATIVELY SHORT TRIAL PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS THEMSELVES ARE CHANGING RADICALLY AND FOR THE WORSE. DURING MOST OF THE COLD WAR FEW NATIONS HAD NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AND NONE OF THOSE THAT DID WERE OBSESSED WITH RACIAL OR ETHNIC HATRED. NOW, THE NUMBER HAS GONE UP AND SO HAS THE BLOOD FEUD FACTOR. THAT HAS LED TO MORE SUDDEN LURCHES TO THE "BRINK." GOING TO THE BRINK OF NUCLEAR WAR OFTEN ENOUGH COULD MAKE THE PARTICIPANTS SO COMPLACENT THAT THEY GET SLOPPY HANDLING IT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO GROSS MISCALCULATIONS, OR IT COULD IMPEL THEM TO UP THE ANTE EACH TIME IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN CREDIBILITY AND TO LOOK FOOLISH. EITHER POSSIBILITY COURTS CALAMITY . LEADERSHIP-IMPACTS UNSTABLE RUSSIA RISKS ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR [P. 2] NATO EXPANSION WILL DECREASE SAFETY OF RUSSIA’S DEPLOYED NUCLEAR WEAPONS BY INCREASING REACTIVENESS TO SUPERIOR NATO MILITARY FORCES RISKING TOTAL NUCLEAR ANNIHILATION John Steinbruner, senior fellow in foreign policy studies, at the Brookings Institution in Washington, March 3, 1997, Monday; Los Angeles Times, HEADLINE: RUSSIA FACES AN UNSAFE RELIANCE ON NUKES; NATO: DON’T RISK FORCING THEM INTO A MORE HIGHLY REACTIVE POSTURE TO EXPAND THE ALLIANCE., SECTION: Metro; Part B; Page 5; Op Ed Desk// VT98-CJJ The NATO question is not about immediate political sentiment or feelings of cultural affinity. Ultimately it is about the disposition of military forces and in particular about the management of nuclear weapons. As the most ominous of several perverse effects, the current formula for expansion will predictably degrade the operational safety of nuclear weapons deployments. The United States and Russia still are conducting the deterrent operations developed during the Cold War. Each country keeps its nuclear forces on continuous alert status, prepared to initiate a massive attack on the other within a few minutes. The number of weapons involved has declined and the designated targets nominally have been removed. Despite those changes, neither the timing nor the magnitude of underlying threat has been fundamentally altered. The target assignments could be restored in a matter of seconds and the firepower available is capable of devastating both societies. There is a new feature of the situation, however. Russia has lost segments of the Soviet-era early warning network, and Russia’s strategic forces are not as able to withstand an initial attack as the Soviet forces were in the latter stages of the Cold War. In particular, Russian forces are more vulnerable to the increasingly sophisticated capabilities of U.S. conventional forces. With the Russian government’s urgent domestic priorities, there is no serious prospect that the military establishment could redress this imbalance anytime soon. The question is the extent to which they compensate by increasing reliance on nuclear weapons deployments. Official Russian military doctrine already has indicated an intention to compensate in this manner, but that leaves open other important questions. Active implementation of this intention requires an increase in the reactiveness of Russian nuclear forces to U.S. and NATO conventional force operations, and that cannot be done without accepting safety standards lower than a less reactive force could achieve. Since Russian conventional forces are seriously underfinanced and are deteriorating, the compensating increase in the scope and reactiveness of their tactical nuclear weapons component is the last thing any member of NATO or any citizen of Europe should want. As a practical matter, NATO expansion as now designed will bring U.S. tactical air potential that much closer to sensitive Russian targets and almost certainly will increase their reactiveness. That is an irresponsible thing for the Western alliance to do. Correcting this problem would have to go far beyond the reassurances currently contemplated. Credible measures logically would include the removal of all tactical nuclear weapons from Europe, the complete integration of Russia and all the other states of the region into a common military air traffic control system and a much more extensive redesign of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty arrangements than has been suggested. The more fundamental point is that we need to redirect our focus of concern and balance of policy. The operational safety of nuclear weapons is a much more urgent matter than extension of traditional deterrent protection. Constructive engagement with Russia is a far more urgent matter than the expansion of NATO, even for the favored few of Central Europe. We have this one badly wrong, and we had better wake up before irretrievable damage is done. LEADERSHIP-IMPACTS NATO EXPANSION WILL DESTROY ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS FUTURE OF NATO EXPANSION DETERMINES DUMA RATIFICATION OF TREATIES SPURGEON KEENY, Arms Control Association, 1997; FEDERAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS CORPORATION, March 26; State Dept. Briefing // VT98-jah I do think that we have made the outcome less likely, and significantly less likely, by the whole approach to the expansion of NATO. Now whether there are any actions that could be taken that would defuse this problem to some extent from the perspective of Russian politicians seems unlikely. But I would hope that careful consideration is given to it. Certainly the whole question of how the expansion is going to relate to the future, even hypothetically, to the Baltics, Romania. START 3 NEGOTIATIONS FACE OPPOSITION IN SENATE AND DUMA SPURGEON KEENY, Arms Control Association, 1997; FEDERAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS CORPORATION, March 26; State Dept. Briefing // VT98-jah THE potential bad news, however, is that it’s going to be a long negotiation to in fact encompass these OTHER than simply WISHED-FOR first steps that could defer completion of START III for a number of years. Recognizing this, the presidents agreed on a specific PROPOSAL to immediately address the Duma’s concerns; and that is to have a protocol to START II which would essentially stretch-out the elimination of the systems to be eliminated in START II from the beginning of the year 2003 to the end of 2007, which is a deferral of five years. This is to some extent alleviated by saying that by the end of 2003, the systems covered by START II will have to have the warheads presumably deactivated, meaning, I assume, removed from the delivery systems. However, from the perspective of the Duma, this gives Russia the right to maintain the key weapons to have been eliminated ‘ under START II for an additional five years, and in particular, the 150 SS-18s which were the principal muscle in the Russian strategic forces. This document, as I said, will, as I understand it, be included in the ratification process of START II in the Duma. And it will then be submitted to the Senate, the U.S. Senate, as an amendment to the START II treaty. This — and we will return to this subject as to how these proceed how these — the agreements are going to fare in the US senate itself. EXPANDING NATO HURTS DUMA APPROVAL OF START 2 Agence France Presse, May 16, 1997; HEADLINE: NATO expansion hurts Start 2 approval by Moscow – report, SECTION: Domestic, non-Washington, general news item// VT98-CJJ NATO’s decision to expand has harmed chances of approval by the Russian parliament of the Start 2 nuclear treaty, Russia’s top national security official told The New York Times. “It is my view that it is not possible with the current Duma (Russian parliament),” Ivan Rybkin, head of Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s Security Council said in an interview published Thursday. “In addition to all the current problems we have with the Duma, there is the problem of NATO expansion, ” he added. NATO EXPANSION THREATENS ARMS CONTROL TREATIES BY ANTAGONIZING RUSSIA PROFESSOR MICHAEL MANDELBAUM, CHRISTIAN A. HERTER PROFESSOR OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY OF THE PAUL H. NITZE SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONALSTUDIES OF THE JOHN HOPKINS UNIVERSITY, MARCH 26, 1997; Federal News Service, //VT98-CJJ If the common security regime now in place endures, the arms treaties will be the pillars of the post-Cold War order, even as the Marshall Plan and NATO were the pillars of the Cold War policy of the West. This, as I say, is no mean achievement. And yet, these agreements get, if not no respect, then not as muchas they deserve. But — and here I come to the third question — does any of this really matter? After all, these treaties are in effect, and they are doing their work. And we know, from our own experience and from history, that what was once miraculous quickly becomes routine. We don’t now celebrate Jonas Salk’s birthday. Few of us know when it is. And probably most Americans, by this time, have never heard of him. Every day, thousands of people cross bridges all across the United States, the construction of which was once regarded as an engineering miracle. But nobody thinks about it. That’s progress. Isn’t that true of arms control as well? Well, unfortunately, not quite. The significance of these achievements does matter, because the achievements are not secure. They’re not reversible, and indeed, I believe, they’re threatened by the prospect of NATO expansion. They are threatened in two ways. First, arms-control treaties themselves are threatened. The START II Treaty, which would reduce the number of nuclear weapons aimed at us, and is therefore of some interest to the United States, has been held hostage in the Russian Duma to the prospect of NATO expansion. Boris Yeltsin in Helsinki promised to try to get the Duma to ratify this treaty. He’s promised this before. My advice is: Don’t hold your breath. There’s a larger problem here. NATO expansion puts the entire postCold War settlement, in which arms control is embedded, in jeopardy. LEADERSHIP-IMPACTS OTHER IMPACTS OF NATO EXPANSION NATO EXPANSION WILL JEOPARDIZE SOCIAL PROGRAMS IN EASTERN EUROPE BY REQUIRING REARMAMENT WHILE INCREASING RISK OF NUCLEAR WAR Yuri Glukhov, STAFF WRITER, March 29, 1996; Russian Press Digest, HEADLINE: Thrust Toward East, SECTION: News// VT98-CJJ NATO’s decision to expand eastward is irrational, says Valery Rozanov, head of the analytical division of the Foreign Intelligence Service in an interview for VEK. Russia is not contemplating military operations against Eastern Europe, nor has it the military capability for any such actions. Now that the Cold War is over and the world is no longer divided into two military blocs the colossal outlays of funds that western countries, and more importantly, their Eastern partners will have to spend on rearmament seem to be unwarranted. The argument that East-European nations yearn to join NATO and therefore NATO should reciprocate is not sound enough. While it is true that those countries’ political elites are indeed in favor of joining, their populations are not as enthusiastic about NATO membership as they were in 1992-1994 although some sections still tend to be deluded by the mass media’s claim that Russia poses a threat. What the media are not willing to admit is that NATO membership will entail a considerable financial cost to the detriment of social programs. Western Europe is unlikely to benefit from NATO’s expansion either. Should nuclear war break out, it will engulf all — Europe as well as Russia. RUSSIA IS THREATENING INCREASING IRANIAN RELATIONSHIP WITH TEHERAN IF NATO EXPANDS Andrei Smirnov, STAFF WRITER, May 8, 1997; Russian Press Digest, HEADLINE: Psychological Attack Without Hope For Break-Through, SECTION: News, SOURCE: SEGODNYA, p. 3//VT98-CJJ A component part of the overall picture of the psychological attack on the West is a recent “leak” by the ITAR-TASS news agency. According to it, Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov has given assurances to his Iranian opposite number that Moscow’s good relations with Iran will in no way be affected by Teheran’s quarrel with the Council of Europe. Although the report has been denied by Primakov and the Foreign Ministry, the paper questions the possibility of a state- run news agency making such a blunder, especially coming on the eve of Primakov’s Luxemburg round of talks with Solana. Rather, it says, the whole affair smacks of low-grade blackmail, the implication being that the news agency issued the report to tell NATO that Moscow would embrace Teheran unless NATO gave up its plans for expansion. LEADERSHIP-IMPACT NUCLEAR WAR WOULD HAVE DEVASTATING IMPACTS HUMAN CIVILIZATION WOULD NOT RECOVER FROM NUCLEAR WINTER Richard Turco, Prof. environmental science, 1997; EARTH UNDER SIEGE: FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE, p. 289 // VT98-jah If a nuclear “exchange”" (as a nuclear was is often euphemistically called) were to occur, thousands of large fires would be ignited in cities and oil fields, and unprecedented quantities of soot would be injected into the atmosphere. The soot would block sunlight from the surface, creating an “anti greenhouse effect.” Land would cool rapidly and deeply, dropping the world into a “nuclear winter,” in which agriculture would be likely to fail and much of the human population would starve. Scientists have speculated that human civilization might not recover from such trauma. NUCLEAR WAS WOULD CAUSE THREE BILLION DEATHS THE FIRST YEAR WITH LITTLE HOPE BEYOND THAT Richard Turco, Prof. environmental science, 1997; EARTH UNDER SIEGE: FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE, p. 461 // VT98-jah The impact of projected food shortages would be devastating. One comprehensive assessment predicted up to 3 billion human casualties of hunger and disease during the first year. The future of civilization beyond that point would seem grim, with little infrastructure remaining to support a long-term recovery. ANNE EHRLICH & JOHN BIRKS, Stanford Univ., 1990; HIDDEN DANGERS: ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF PREPARING FOR WAR, p. 132 // VT98-jah In a large scale thermonuclear exchange, hundreds of millions of people could be killed or fatally injured, depending on the scale of the war and targeting pattern. Human survivors in combatant nations would have to cope with their own injuries and radiation sickness, with no hope of help from the outside, and with much of their habitation, infrastructure, and transport systems in ruins. Moreover, serious damage would be inflicted on local biological systems that supply food and other essentials, and locally stored food would be destroyed or rendered unusably radioactive. AS FEW AS 2% (1000) OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS USED WOULD TRIGGER NUCLEAR WINTER ERIC MARKSUEN, PROF. OF SOCIOLOGY AT OLD DOMINION, 1987; GENOCIDE IN THE MODERN AGE, “GENOCIDE AND TOTAL WAR,” P. 99//VT98-MXCJJ TO THESE FINDINGS MUST BE ADDED THOSE FROM RECENT STUDIES OF THE POSSIBLE CLIMATIC AND LONG TERM BIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF NUCLEAR WAR. AMONG THE MOST SHOCKING IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE DETONATION OF EVEN A VERY SMALL PORTION OF EXISTING ARSENALS (AS FEW AS 1000 OF THE 50000 WARHEADS0 COULD PRODUCEA SO CALLED NUCLEAR WINTER, WHICH WOULD ENTAIL PLUNGING TEMPERATURES AND A PALL OF DARKNESS RESULTING FROM SMOKE AND OTHER ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION GENERATED BY FIRES. THIS NUCLEAR WINTER COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND LAST FOR MONTHS. SO GRAVE THE CONSEQUENCES OF NUCLEAR WAR BE THAT THE RESEARCHERS COULD: COMBINED WITH THE DIRECT CASUALTIES OF OVER 1 BILLION PEOPLE, THE COMBINED INTERMEDIATE AND LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR SUGGEST THAT EVENTUALLY THERE MIGHT BE NO HUMAN SURVIVORS IN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE….IN ANY LARGE SCALE NUCLEAR EXCHANGE BETWEEN THE SUPERPOWERS, GLOABL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE THE EXTINCTION OF A MAJOR FRACTION OF PLANT AND SPECIES ON EARTH LIKELY ….IN THAT EVENT, THE POSSIBILITY OF THE EXTINCTION OF HOMOSAPIENS CANNOT BE EXCLUDED. NEW SOCIAL MOVEMENTS The story for this disad is pretty straightforward. The affirmative policy will stop the mobilization of new social movements which are necessary to solve ecological destruction and massive wars. Basically, the people need to solve the problems of the world, not the government. Governmental reforms and solutions to the environment, such as policies about energy only deal with a few of the problems of our society. In order for comprehensive solutions, we need the participation of all people throughout the world. The movements are growing throughout the world and are interlinking (cross-mobilizing) to deal with the problems in a unified manner. When the government steps in and proclaims that their policy can solve the problem, the people stop mobilizing because they believe the problem is now solved and their movement is no longer necessary. The problem with this is that the government policies are inadequate to deal with the ecological crisis and therefore only perpetuate the problems. The links go along with the story just explained. The ‘ecocrisis links’ also follow with this story, but in a little more complex way. This story is that the affirmative policy should not be enacted because it might slow the ecological crisis or make it appear as though the government policies are working, while the problems are only getting worse behind our backs. What we need in order to mobilize the people is an illumination of the ecological crisis to spark the fire inside of people and get them to rise out of their apathy and unite with their brothers and sisters to solve the problems in our world. Therefore, the judge should not vote for the affirmative which will demobilize the movements. The movements are growing and cross-mobilizing right now and we need to let them solve the problems. The solvency evidence and impacts all explain this scenario. Mainstream solutions don’t solve and only enhance inequality and environmental degradation. New social movements, through mobilization will change the dominant social paradigm and create political change. The impacts of this disad should outweigh most affirmatives because movements solve the ecocrisis and wars. This should be the easy part of the debate to win, the difficult part should be the uniqueness. So make sure you spend time winning that movements are forming now and cross-mobilizing throughout the world. Good luck. -ANNALEI McGREEVY NEW SOCIAL MOVEMENTS SHELL A. GRASSROOTS MOVEMENTS ARE A LARGE POLITICAL FORCE AND ARE GROWING Phillip Shabecoff, Former New York Times political, ecological, security, and foreign correspondent, 1996, A NEW NAME FOR PEACE, Fitter, p. 65 //VT98-am At the other end of the spectrum are the thousands upon thousands of grass-roots organizations composed of people who have banded together to improve their supplies of fresh water, to save the forests they depend on for food and fuel, to block construction of a dam that will flood their land and drive them from their homes. These groups will oppose toxic waste dumps in their neighborhoods, oppose development that threatens their land and native wildlife, and develop simple technologies such as cooking stoves and irrigation tools that will save money while easing the strain on resources. They will plant trees and open fish farms, they will petition governments to carry out environmental protection laws, and they will engage in civil disobedience when the government is an agent of environmental destruction or go to jail when an authoritarian government will not tolerate their protest. No one really knows how many people belong to these grass-roots groups although Alan Durning of the Worldwatch Institute believes they number in the hundreds of millions. In the United States, Europe, and Japan, these groups are able to attract the attention of the news media and government officials and to influence the political process as a means of achieving their goals. In the developing nations and in countries with authoritarian governments, the members of these groups are often poor and politically neutered and must overcome great obstacles to influence government policy. Taken together, however, they must be regarded as a rising potential political force in the world, a force that is being treated with increasing seriousness by governments and international organizations. B. FAILINGS OF THE STATUS QUO ELIMINATED BY THE AFFIRMATIVE SPUR GRASSROOTS ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENTS; THE FATE OF DEMOCRACY AND SOCIAL JUSTICE ARE AT STAKE Richard Flacks, Prof. Sociology at U.C. Santa Barbara, 1995, CULTURAL POLITICS AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS, “Think Globally, Act Politically: Some Notes Toward New Movement Strategy”, p. 263 //VT98-am To conclude: Social movements arise and are revitalized when normal politics fail. We seem to have entered an epoch in which normal politics not only are failing but cannot be restored in the traditional ways. Government based on representation through political parties and capable of steering national economics is now obsolete. Social polarization, tribalistic fragmentation, and cultural despair are looming dangers. Social movements – the semi-spontaneous upsurges of grassroots initiative – have until now been understood as spasmodic moments in which popular intervention revitalized and reformed institutions. Now that the parties are over, the fate of democracy and the chances for social justice will depend on the movements’ capacity to take ongoing responsibility for the social future. C. SOCIAL MOVEMENTS PROVIDE THE BEST METHODS TO SOLVE THE ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE Leslie Paul Thiele, Prof. of Political Science at Univ. of Florida, 1993, ALTERNATIVES, ” Making Democracy Safe for the World: Social Movements and Global Politics” Roskoski, p. 295-296 //VT98-am As military, industrial, and technological powers increase along with the earth’s population (which is expected to double in the nest sixty years), the failure to curb growth and remedy its diseases courts catastrophe. Democracy, members of social movements are saying, must become increasingly farsighted and foresighted as civilization becomes increasingly powerful, expansive, and interdependent. This view retrieves the political wisdom of certain American Native people whose rules of governance were said to be made with the welfare of seven generations in mind – a foresight quite sufficient, given the environmental effects of their technology and population. In sum, new social movements insist that the defense of turf and the exploitation of its resources for the benefit of present inhabitants should no longer remain the justification of political community. In opposition to this Hobbesian and Lockean legacy, movements encourage a view of politics as a trust. In its broadest sense, politics entails the responsibility of creating a participatory community with the mandate of ensuring a rising level of health, security and social justice. The elusive goal is both the establishment of security for all, future generations included, and the participation of all in the establishment of security. Traditional forms of governmental activity, movement members implicitly and explicitly argue, are often ill-disposed to achieve these ends. Electoral pressures and the consequent short-term economic goals of national partisan representatives frequently militate against the management of global and long-term environmental (and military) concerns. By virtue of electoral dynamics and political culture, elected representatives operate with severely constrained temporal and spatial vision. Because transnational social movements (and international nongovernmental organizations in general) are neither nationally mandated nor tenure-limited bodies, they are will disposed to confront those concerns constituency representatives often find at odds with their political ambitions. NEW SOCIAL MOVEMENTS SHELL [P. 2] D. MOVEMENTS ARE CONVERGING TRANSNATIONALLY THROUGH INFORMAL TIES Leslie Paul Thiele, Prof. of Political Science at Univ. of Florida, 1993, ALTERNATIVES, ” Making Democracy Safe for the World: Social Movements and Global Politics” Roskoski, p. 295-296 //VT98-am Independent national, regional, or local groups will often share information, tactics, and a culture of art music, literature, and activities with their international counterparts. More important in this regard is their orientation to global citizenship and stewardship. Their activities are meant to reach beyond the criticism and reformation of strictly national policies, to address international problems, and to reflect a global sensitivity. In other words, the transnational nature of social movements has as much to do with the attitudinal an informal linkages of movement members as their official organizational structure. E. SOCIAL MOVEMENTS UNIQUELY SOLVE NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL ANNIHILATION ALONG WITH ECOLOGICAL DESTRUCTION – THE SCENARIO IS URGENT AND ANY MISTAKES WILL BE IRREVERSIBLE Leslie Paul Thiele, Prof. of Political Science at Univ. of Florida, 1993, ALTERNATIVES, ” Making Democracy Safe for the World: Social Movements and Global Politics” Roskoski, p. 295-296 //VT98-am Hobbesian and liberal convictions seemingly restrict us to two equally disturbing choices in the realm of politics: our submission to an absolute Leviathan who would rule the world, or the indefinite extension of the lives of national Leviathans whose reigns are secured by the mutual suspicions and competitive hostilities of their subjects. The former guarantees security at the expense of most other values: the latter perches its increasingly suspect claim to security on the narrow ledge that balances the threat of a nuclear (biological or chemical) annihilation with that of economically driven ecological destruction. Social movements indicate that this dilemma will remain unresolvable from any view point that posits fear as the foundation for politics, nation-states as the unrestricted arbiters of world affairs, and our interests as capable of being served only behind the aegis of a sovereign state that sponsors unlimited economic and military growth. The struggle to change the social and political conditions that allow, perhaps even dictate, a military balance of terror and unsustainable economics and lifestyles is marked by urgency. In such circumstances, where missteps and mishaps may be irreversible, the greatest part of wisdom consists in being wise in time. MOVEMENTS-LINKS GOVERNMENT REGULATION AND LEGISLATION DEMOBILIZE MOVEMENTS ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENTS ARE DEMOBILIZED BY LEGISLATION Brian Tokar, 1995, Z MAGAZINE, “Grassroots Victories Lobbyist Gridlock, February, //Schnurer,//VT98-am Meanwhile, the vast majority of people with pro-environment sympathies are regularly demobilized by futile campaigns for legislative measures that arc often acknowledged by their supporters as having little potential for passage. FEDERAL STRATEGIES DIMINISH THE POWER OF THE ENTIRE ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT Erik Ness, Staff writer, 1995, THE PROGRESSIVE, “Book Review of ‘A Moment on Earth’, September, //Gehrke, p. 41//VT98-am The federal strategy of the mainstream also has compromised the movement: “Gradually, adherence lo the three Ls-lobbying, legislation, and litigation – has eroded the potential of other strategies by robbing them of talent and resources. As antagonists have developed better counterattacks the effectiveness and power of the entire environmental movement have diminished as well. And worse yet the citizens whose vital interests are at stake have been moved another step away from the process.” FEDERAL REGULATION’S ALLOW ANTI-ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS TO POLARIZE PUBLIC OPINION Michael Zimmerman, Prof. Philosophy at Tulane, 1995, SOCIAL THEORY AND PRACTICE, “The threat of ecofascism”, Vol. 21//VT98am Of course, depicting all those who seek to protect nature as ecofascists is ludicrous, since contemporary politicians of ,virtually every stripe purport to be in favor of a healthy environment. Presumably, even Ron Arnold (a former Sierra club member) retains some concerns about environmental degradation, though he now regards much of environmentalism as misguided and dangerous. Nevertheless, increasingly widespread public resentment against the tangled thicket of federal environmental regulations allows him and his allies to put the environmental lobby on the defensive by polarizing public opinion: either one is a citizen favoring people, private property, and the U S. Constitution; or one is a radical environmentalist favoring nature, communal ownership, and ecofascism. MOVEMENTS-LINKS COURT AND LITIGATION INVOLVEMENT DEMOBILIZES MOVEMENTS COURTS LOCK MOVEMENTS INTO INSTITUTIONAL TRAPS, DRAIN RESOURCES, AND WEAKEN POLITICAL MOBILIZATION Gerald Rosenberg, Poli Sci Chicago, 1991; The Hollow Hope p. 339//VT98-am In general then, not only does litigation steer activists to an institution that is constrained from helping them, but also it siphons off crucial resources and talent, and runs the risk of weakening political efforts. In terms of financial resources, social reform groups don’t have a lot of money. Funding a litigation campaign means that other strategic options are starved of funds. COURT ACTION TRIGGERS PUBLIC AND ELITE BACKLASH WHICH CRUSHES SOCIAL MOVEMENTS . Gerald Rosenberg, Poli Sci Chicago, 1991; The Hollow Hope // roskoski p. 16 //VT98-am This constraint may be particularly powerful with issues of significant social reform. It is likely that as courts deal with issues involving contested values, as issues of significant social reform do almost by definition, they will generate opposition. In turn, opposition may induce a withdrawal of the elite and public support crucial for implementation. Thus, proponents of the constrained court view suggest that the contested nature of issues of significant social reform makes it unlikely that the popular support necessary for implementation will be forthcoming. COURTS EMPIRICALLY MOBILIZE BACKLASH AGAINST MOVEMENTS WITHOUT MOBILIZING SUPPORT. COURTS ALSO DRAIN RESOURCES AND HAVE AN ON-BALANCE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE EFFECT. Susan Lawrence, Professor Rutgers University, 1992. American Political Science Review, March. “Book Reviews” // Roskoski p. 812 /VT98-am .Similarly, in examining the indirect effects of social reform litigation, Rosenberg intimates several times that while the Court’s decisions did not serve to mobilize support for social reform, it did seem to mobilize opposition, although the latter observation is not subjected to the same careful empirical testing that the former is. Repeatedly, the book suggests that not only does social reform litigation unwisely divert group resources away from more productive strategies but that the Court’s decisions themselves at time have a counterproductive effect. COURTS TRAP MOVEMENTS IN THE CYCLE OF LITIGATION ON – THEY SUCK RESOURCES, DEFLECT ATTENTION FROM OPPORTUNITIES FOR GENUINE CHANGE, AND QUIESCE WITH SYMBOLIC REFORMS Gerald Rosenberg, Poli Sci Chicago, 1991; The Hollow Hope //roskoski p.34/ VT98-am If this is the case, then there is another important way in which courts affect social change. It is, to put it simply, that courts act as “fly paper” for social reformers who succumb to the “lure of litigation.” If the constraints of the constrained court view are correct, then courts can seldom produce significant social reform. Yet if groups advocating such reform continue to look to the courts for aid, and spend precious resources in litigation, then the courts also limit change by deflecting claims from substantive political battles. MOVEMENTS-LINKS LIMITED, PIECEMEAL REFORMS DEMOBILIZE MOVEMENTS INCREMENTAL REFORMS ARE WORSE THAN DOING NOTHING BECAUSE THEY IGNORE UNDERLYING CAUSES OF ECO-CRISIS LAMONT C. HEMPEL, PROF. OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE CLAREMONT GRADUATE SCHOOL, 1996, ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE//JAH-27 p. 8//VT98-am For those who respect present boundaries of political feasibility, effective en vironmental governance means incremental reform of the nation-state system, perhaps leading in a century or more to some limited form of world federalism. Their radical counterparts argue that only a rapid and Iargescale conversion of of state-centric military industrial economies can prevent massive eco-destruction. Roderick Nash (1989: 150), for example, argues that incremental “reform environmentalism” is worse than doing nothing because it offers only sympomatic relief while allowing the underlying problem to fester. THE AFFIRMATIVE SYMBOLIC REFORM STOPS REAL MOVEMENT CHANGE MURRAY BOOKCHIN, Founder of Social Ecology, 1990, REMAKING SOCIETY//schnurer p. 160 //VT98am But they cannot supplant the need to act to the roots of environmental dislocations. Indeed, insofar as they arc restricted merely to reforms, they often create the dangerous illusion that the present social order is capable of rectifying its own abuses. The denaturing of the environment must always be seen as inherent to capitalism, the product of its very law of life, as a system of limitless expansion and capital accumulation. To ignore the anti- ecological core of the present social order — be it in its Western corporate form or its Eastern bureaucratic form – is to allay public concern about the depth of the crisis and lasting means to resolve it. MOVEMENTS-LINKS ECOCRISIS IN THE STATUS QUO MOBILIZES MOVEMENTS, AFFIRMATIVE SOLUTIONS QUIESCE MOVEMENTS ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS AND LOSS OF POLITICAL LEGITIMACY PROVIDES IMPETUS FOR RESISTANCE TO THE GLOBAL CAPITALIST ORDER Gary Teeple, professor sociology and anthropology, 1995, Globalization and the Decline of Social Reform//jah25 p. /50 //VT98-am Despite these odds the will to resist expands, though often hidden or latent In countries throughout the world, the introduction of neo-liberal policies has precipitated demonstrations, strikes, and even general strikes. The consequent increases in the disparities of wealth, in unemployment, hopelessness, and poverty, have engendered a new political awakening and at the same time a decline in moral and political authority. In general, it has been more the poverty of opposition leadership than the will of the people that has prevented this resistance from developing. Resistance and alternatives will, nevertheless, continue to spread as the ability of capitalism to provide for the material let alone human, needs of the populace declines. as destruction of the environment becomes more – obvious. as political legitimacy fades and as the potential for economic crisis increases. PARADIGM CHANGE IS REAL POSSIBILITY WITH STATES OF CRISIS Joseph Camilleri, professor politics, 1996; “Impoverishment and the National state”, Earthly Goods: Environmental Change and Social Justice. edited by Hampson and Reppy//jah15 p. 138//VT98-am If global environmental change and global impoverishment arc closely interconnected outcomes of the dominant logic of the world system (with its emphasis on material wealth, competitive markets, productivist technical innovation, and globalizing and state-mediated competition), then regime change, at least as conventionally defined, may not be enough. Adequate responses to the socio-ecological crisis may require political space for a new logic, a new normative framework, and presumably a new or substantially modified set of institutions, rules, and procedures. Many have indeed referred to this potential transformation as implying a paradigmatic shift. What must be stressed, however, is that paradigmatic shifts seldom occur overnight and are seldom complete or definitive. On the other hand, such shifts are precisely the watersheds that separate one historical epoch from another. There is much evidence to suggest that both social and political actors are beginning to grasp the contradictory pressures inherent in intense economic and political competition and the mutually reinforcing prospect of social and environmental breakdown. Here, it is worth noting that these two trends bear a striking resemblance to the stages of “anomaly” and “state of crisis” that Kuhn characterizes as constituting the prelude to a paradigmatic shift. ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE, RADICAL PARADIGM SHIFT NECESSARY Daniel Press, Asst. Prof. Environmental Studies at U.C. Santa Cruz, 1994, DEMOCRATIC DILEMMAS IN THE AGE OF ECOLOGY ,//JR, p. 17 //VT98 -am Many of the writers discussed above argue that, whatever political path we choose, radical paradigm changes will be necessary to avert environmental crises. Echersley ( 1992) points out that much environmental political thought views environmental crisis as ens “opportunity for emancipation.” She suggests that this emancipatory potential has motivated ecopolitical theorists to direct “considerable attention toward the revitalization of civil society rather than, or in addition to, the state.” POSITIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES REQUIRE PUBLIC PRESSURE OR A CATASTROPHE David Nyhan, Globe Staff, The Boston Globe, July 3, 1996, Wednesday, City Edition, SECTION: OP ED; Pg. 15, HEADLINE Spaceship Earth’s decision-making suffers a scourge of ignorance // jah p //VT98-am The high economic growth rates cited by governments around the world are inherently phony, he maintains, because the long-term costs of environmental degradation are shaved or eliminated in rosy scenarios for the Let’s-get-reelected crowd. Politicians talking about economic growth without figuring in the environment’s perpetuity make no more sense than politicians braying about family values, he maintains. There are only three ways you get good environmental policy changes, he argues: 1. Political leadership, via individuals or movements; 2. pressure from below, from the public at large, when the men and women in the streets get fed up with poison in the air, water, landfill, concrete, cars, exhaust fumes; 3. catastrophe. When things get so bad nothing else will move the debate, he concludes, “You can have a beneficial catastrophe.” ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS IS OPPORTUNITY FOR WORLD TO UNITE TO SAVE PLANET. Tom Athanasiou, Author, Divided Planet The Ecology of Rich and Poor, 1996 //jah p. 212 //VT98-am Rather than despair, Khor sought hope in the environmental crisis, arguing that it has reached a point where “solutions cannot be attained through technological means alone, but will principally involve fundamental changes in economy, development models, lifestyles, distribution of resources and income, and international political relations.” The environmental crisis is an “opportunity to renew international cooperation,” and to “focus the minds and wills of political and economic leaders as well as people and their organizations on broad cooperation strategies and mechanisms that will be mutually beneficial and ensure Earth’s survival.” MOVEMENTS-LINKS GLOBAL WARMING DANGERS MOBILIZE THE MOVEMENTS GLOBAL WARMING WOULD BE AN OPTIMAL CRISIS TO AWAKEN PLANETARY CONSCIOUSNESS. Tom Athanasiou, Author, Divided Planet. The Ecology of Rich and Poor, 19961/jah-79 p 95 //VT98am Herman Daly, the dean of ecological economics, once said that out best chance may be an “optimal crisis: bad enough to shake us up, but not so bad as to impair our ability to react.” It’s an odd notion–and a peculiarly honest one. Before the Wall fell, Norman Myers, a naturalist and environmentalist, seemed to suggest an answer, almost wel coming global warming as a “global wake-up call”: “One day we may thank the greenhouse effect for sending a message that even the most optimistic politician could not ignore. ” THE GREENHOUSE PROBLEM MOBILIZES NEW SOCIAL MOVEMENTS Victor Ferkuss, 1993, NATURE, TECHNOLOGY, AND SOCIETY, //sgw, p. 214 //VT98-am One archetypal environmental problem that has reached not only the consciousness of experts but also the public in general — even being featured in a cover story in TIME magazine — is the greenhouse effect. People have begun to pay attention to the long standing warning of many scientists that the pollution of the Earth’s atmosphere would cause a permanent global rise in temperature. MOVEMENTS-LINKS VIGOROUS RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY DEMOBILIZES THE MOVEMENTS PEOPLE WILL MOBILIZE OVER POOR ENERGY PRACTICES HOWARD SNYDER, environmentalist, EARTH CURRENTS, 1995, p. 31 // VT98-am In industrial societies, conservation is the cheapest and most immediate source of new energy. Energy technology in the 19th and 20th centuries was grossly wasteful. Most of the energy from the gasoline used in internal combustion engines, for example, is wasted and passes through the air as heat and greenhouse gases. As industrial societies becomes more ecologically awake, people will no longer tolerate such waste. Energy conservation will come from a wide variety of sources: use of lighter, energy efficient materials, better insulation, and more extensive monitoring. Lifestyle changes also could help: using less water, walking more, and slightly lowering thermostat settings during cold weather. STATUS QUO ENERGY POLICY WILL FURTHER SOCIAL MOVEMENTS EXPANSION Kenneth Cameron, Staff Writer Jan 1993; Political Affairs “Atmospheric Destruction and Human Survival.” PK p. 15 //VT98-am Whether the present worldwide economic crises deepen or rise but to fall again, it will be a world in social turmoil. In this world, the key question may well be, to what degree are the existing corporate capitalist and other systems structurally capable of building a clean energy base? If these systems, especially the dominant capitalist relations of production, continue to form major barriers to a clean energy world, we can expect a further expansion of environmentalist and social change alliances. WIND POWER HAS FRAGMENTED THE GREEN MOVEMENT IN THE UK Severin Carrell, Environment Correspondent, Scotland on Sunday, October 6, 1996, Sunday: Pg. 11, TITLE: Wind power struggle // VT98-acs A FIERCE war is about to break out for control of Scotland’s mountains and moors. But forget battling clans or greedy lairds: the fight is between rival camps of the UK’s green movement, each side competing for the moral high ground of environmental politics over one of our basic elements, the wind. WIND POWER HAS CREATED CONFLICT BETWEEN DIFFERENT SOCIAL GROUPS Severin Carrell, Environment Correspondent, Scotland on Sunday, October 6, 1996, Sunday: Pg. 11, TITLE: Wind power struggle // VT98-acs Many greens believe wind power could help industrialised society save itself from destruction by acid rain, global warming and toxic pollution. But for others – conservationists, supporters of nuclear power, local residents in wind-rich rural areas, and ex-city dwellers now colonising the countryside – plans to erect tall turbines which can stretch 20 storeys high pose an unparalleled threat to the beauty of the countryside. The protesters are preparing to fight the wind farmers tooth and nail, in a dispute which has already split the green movement in England and Wales and threatens to do the same in Scotland. MOVEMENTS-LINKS CORPORATE “GREENWASHING” DEMOBILIZES THE MOVEMENTS CORPORATE GREENWASHING FOSTERS PUBLIC APATHY DAVID HELVARG, WRITER FOR THE NATION, “THE BIG GREEN SPIN MACHINE: CORPORATlON’S AND ENVIRONMENTAL PR” , THE AMICUS JOURNAL. SUMMER 1996//JAH p. 21// VT98-am But by investing in advertising and lobbying designed to create the illusion that environmentally destructive practices are environmentally beneficial, greenwashing companies are also disseminating apathy. They are undermining the core of informed citizenry that is the cornerstone of democratic decision-making. And when they move beyond that to the creation of Astroturf groups, protest demonstrations, and social movements for hire, they cross a critical threshold of respect for the basic democratic institutions on which our society is supposed to be based. Even once they are exposed to the light of day, campaigns like these are poisonous to the public debate. They engender profound public cynicism about the political process; they reduce citizens’ wilingness to participate in a political system that is apparently hopelessIy compromised by corporate special interests. CREATING A PUBLIC PERCEPTION THAT CORPORATE POLLUTERS ARE GREEN PACIFIES RESISTANCE Mark Dowie, Journalist, 1995, LOSING GROUND: AMERICAN ENVIRONMENTALISM AT THE CLOSE OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY//jah, p. 11 7, //VT98-am It is true that Hair and Krupp are but two of more than a dozen environmental leaders active in the mainstream movement and that some of their colleagues are openly critical of their policies and actions. But together, or in chorus with one or two other third-wave enthusiasts they can do a lot of damage by! helping corporate polluters create the public impression that they are a lot greener than they really arc. . The more successful the third wave appears. the more ordinary citizens seem to believe it can solve a number of marginally significant problems. As thirdwave national organizations promote their triumphs and virtues through direct mail and as corporations do so in long advertising supplements in mass media journals (carelessly making in a few small victories with a lot of false assumptions about the benefits of the market) members of the public who have not yet suffered the effects of direct exposure to odious pollutants begin to believe that the problem is being remedied and become complacent. A $25 annual donation to a mainstream’ organization becomes their sole participation in environmental protection. A few million such donations create a handsome budget for third wave environmental organizations that are often dependent for their survival on the generosity of passive ant gullible donors. MOVEMENTS-INTERNAL LINKS ENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS AND MOBILIZATION IS GROWING THE PUBLIC IS NOW UNIQUELY AWARE OF THE ENVIRONMENT David R. Karp and Clark L. Gaulding, Graduate Student of Sociology and Faculty of the Graduate School of Public Affairs at Univ. of Washington, 1995, HUMAN RELATIONS, “Motivational Underpinning of Command-and-Control, Marketbased, and Volutarist Environmental policies”, //cjj, Vol, 48, No. 5, p. 439 //VT98-am Appeals to environmental or biospheric values can be successful when people are measurably concerned about the environment. In a review of major national data in the United States over the last two decades, Dunlap and Scarce (1991) report that,. public concern for environmental quality has reached an all-time high. While questions about the strength of environmental concern remain unclear, growing majorities see environmental problems as serious, worsening, and increasingly threatening to human well-being; strong and growing majorities support government action to protect environmental quality; and majorities generally side with environmental protection over economic growth as well as indicate a personal willingness to pay the costs of such protection. Perhaps the most important trends are the public’s increasingly positive orientation toward environmentalism and the growth in both political and consumer actions on behalf of environmental protection (p. 657). THE NEW ENVIRONMENTALISM HAS TAPPED INTO POPULIST SENTIMENT Christopher J. Bosso, Assoc. Prof. of Political Science at Northeastern Univ. ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY IN THE 1990′S, “After the Movement: Environmental Activism in the 1 990’s,” edited by Vig and Kraft, Second Edition, //jah, p. 47-48 //VT98-am More intriguing to ponder is the future of the grass roots, the most diverse and vibrant part of environmentalism In this regard the ” new ” environmentalism of citizen empowerment and social justice is especially compelling because, as Mark Sagoff argues, it has “tapped into the artery of mainstream populist sentiment. Environmentalism as a result has begun to fashion itself into a form of patriotism — to express a concern with the continuity of community linked to the integrity of place. To the surprise and chagrin of many political analysts and strategists, environmentalism has thus gained a sizeable constituency who speak the language of American populism.” PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT JUST LIP SERVICE Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Poll data show that the public is not simply paying lip service to environmental protection. The polls suggest that the public wants a broad national agenda of sustainable development, and it wants energy efficiency and renewable energy institutionalized as a greater part of the nation’s energy mix. PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS ABOUT ENERGY HAVE SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES Dr. Barbara Farhar, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 12, 1996; Energy and the Environment: The Public View http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Perceptions are important because what people believe to be real is real in its consequences. Perceptions and preferences are themselves facts that describe the social world in which we operate. Perceptions and preferences about energy and the environment are influenced by objectively factual information-and sometimes by the lack of it-on matters such as the percentages of U.S. electricity generated by coal, nuclear energy, oil, hydropower, and natural gas; energy prices; oil company and utility profits; and energy- related events like the OPEC oil embargo, Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Valdez, and the Gulf War. MOVEMENTS-INTERNAL LINKS THE TRANSITION TO MOVEMENT MOBILIZATION IS TAKING PLACE NOW MOVEMENTS AREN’T INEVITABLE, BUT EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE PROVES THEY CAN FORM BY 2000 Paul Joseph, Prof. at Tufts, 1993, PEACE POLITICS, “Peace Movements Make a Difference”//cjw, p. 239-240 //VT98-am Will some form of progressive politics actually emerge over the 1990s?? Certainly there is nothing inevitable about this prospect . Intellectually, as the rest of this chapter will explore there are good reasons to remain skeptical. Yet, the future cannot be predicted. The promise of common security anti a new world order, popular participation in making history, the inclusion of the disenfranchised and the development of a more vital and compelling political and social culture remains a vision. On one important level, progressive realignment is an act of faith; and the possibility that it “ill occur cannot be eliminated, simply because enough people may want it to happen and may get together to make it happen. Naive? Hopelessly idealistic? Possibly. Yet we should remind ourselves that no one predicted tine’ emergence of Mikhail Gorbachev and the possibilities of political democracy in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. But that which was most unexpected came to pass. Similarly, any rational. empirically grounded assessment of the U.S. South during the mid-1950s would have predicted that nonviolent movement for civil rights would fail. While the goal of racial equality remains unfulfilled,, the civil rights movement brought about such fundamental transformations as black empowerment, greater acceptance of equality on the part of many whites, and a new legal role for the federal government in ending discrimination. The chance that the beginning of a new century will political coalition vying for national al political power is certainly no more remote than the probability that neoStalinism and Jim Crow would be transformed by peaceful means. BROAD ACTIVISM IS ON THE BRINK OF CHANGING SOCIETY AARON SACH, research assistant, Worldwatch Institute, 1995; ECO-ISSUES: LINKING HUMAN RIGHTS AND THE ENVIRONMENT, p. 8 // JS-VT98-am Thanks to more than a decade of documenting problems, protesting, and building coalitions, environmentalists and human rights activists are now in a position to weave their combined agenda directly into official laws and policies. HUMANITY IS IN PERIOD OF IDEOLOGICAL REEVALUATION WITH NO CERTAIN OUTCOME Christian Reus-Smit, professor politics, 1996, “The Normative Structure of International Society”, Earthly Goods: Environmental Change and Social Justice. edited by Hampson and Reppy//jah16 p. 118 //VT98-am Since the early 1970s we have also witnessed a challenge to the modern world’s dominant social ideology. This challenge has been generated by the global environmental crisis itself. One of the crucial pillars of modern ideology is the idea that nature exists for human exploitation, that it has no value until it is turned to productive purposes by industrious human labor. As we have seen, it was this idea that informed early notions of possessive individualism and helped define justice in terms of property rights. But these ideas can no longer be asserted with the confidence mustered by Locke and Smith. The climatic dangers posed by global warming, the increased skin cancer rates produced by ozone depletion, the massive repeated flooding of the Ganges delta caused by deforestation in the Himalayan foothills, and the tragedy of Chernobyl all highlight the interdependence between humans and the natural environment. Many proclaim the inevitability of a technological fix, the prospect of continued economic growth, and the certainty of “business as usual,” but many others call for a more balanced, less predatory relationship between humans and nature. These developments suggest that at the very least we are currently in a period of ideological reevaluation, the results of which remain unclear. PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO REALIZE THAT WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE BUT A CHANGE OF BEHAVIOR STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN PAUL EHRLICH, BING PROFESSOR OF POPULATION STUDIES AT STANFORD AND ANNE EHRLICH, SENIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE AT STANFORD, 1996; BETRAYAL OF SCIENCE AND REASON // CJJ p. 23 //VT98am We are all now caught in a gigantic tragedy of the commons; each person, each family, and each nation is struggling to stay ahead while the whole system is on the verge of collapse. Many people are now coming to realize the predicament, but it remains to be seen if enough people are willing to break the individual patterns of behavior that are leading to social destruction. ENVIRONMENTALISM IS IN TRANSITION-ITS ROLE IS UNDEFINED Tom Athanasiou, Author, Divided Planet. The Ecology of Rich end poor, 1996//jah-79 p. 15 //VT98am In the South, “environmental protection” is of a single piece with survival and “justice”; its Northern definition as “nature protection” is commonly rejected as naive or worse. In the East, ecology has fallen far down the social agenda, a victim of the restoration’s cruelties and, paradoxically, of the relative e openness that has deprived en; environmentalism of its earlier role as a shelter for opposition. In the North, new generations of green and antigreen politicians are on the scene, and environment is a factor in geopolitics (and geo-economics) a; never before. Here, too, words are contested. Dana Alston, speaking at 1991’s People of Color Environmental Leadership Summit declared that “we refuse narrow definitions.” She spoke for thousands of grassroots “environmental” activists, many of whom, though active in public health and to toxics campaigns, refuse to identify themselves as greens of any stripe. Everywhere, there are currents and countercurrents, and while even the conservative National Review, tells us that environmentalism is no longer a cult issue,’ neither does it hold center stage. Everywhere, its meaning Is confused and in transition. MOVEMENTS-INTERNAL LINKS UNIQUENESS-CROSS MOBILIZATION OF MOVEMENTS TAKING PLACE NOW OPPRESSION WILL SPARK CROSS-SUPPORT AMONG MOVEMENTS Richard Falk, Center for International Studies, Princeton, 1992, EXPLORATIONS AT THE EDGE OF TIME: THE PROSPECTS FOR WORLD ORDER, pp. 68-69 //VT98-am “The idea of ‘the oppressed’ needs, at this time, to be extended to embrace the world of living spirits, human and animal. The entrapment of all peoples in ordeals threatening the various dimensions of survival is a potiential foundation for unity. Because the peril extends to nature, it establishes basis for an ecological partnership between human society and other living beings. This wider ecological outlook, involving a solidarity between human society and nature rather than the disruptive hierarchical relationship characteristic of modernism, also reinforces a wider planetary ethos of strength-through-diveristy. In addition, such an outlook provides a self-concerned basis for the protection of marginal peoples and cultures.” GRASSROOTS MOVEMENTS CREATE BROAD BASED COALITIONS TO CRITIQUE SOCIETY Christopher Bosso, Assoc. Prof. Political Science, Northeastern Univ., ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY IN THE 1990’s, p. 44 jah // VT98-am The new environmentalism is not simply unchecked or hysterical NIMBYism. These groups have not only forced the cleanup of existing hazards and prevented new ones but also, when taken together, begun to influence consumer (and thus business) habits, to create pressures for more preventive approaches to pollution, to expand opportunities for citizen participation, and finally, to extend environmentalism to sectors of the society traditionally unused to thinking ecologically. “By raising health concerns and by linking environmental issues to struggles for social justice and equality,” argue Fruedenberg and Steinsapir, “the grassroots environmental movement has created the potential for a cross-class movement with a broader agenda, more diverse constituencies, and a more radical critique of contemporary society than that of the national environmental organizations.” ———————————————————————————————————————–MOVEMENTS-SOLVENCY CROSS MOBILIZATION WILL SOLVE GLOBAL CRISIS GLOBAL CIVIL SOCIETY REQUIRES UNIFICATION OF MULTIPLE SOCIAL MOVEMENTS Dennis Pirages, professor of government and politics, Building Sustainable Societies: A Blueprint for a Post-Industrial World, “Introduction”, 1996, edited by Dennis Pirages//Jah 1 p.28//VT98-am Thus, if social choice is to be managed effectively this level, the impetus must come from civil society. In an ecological context, and on an international scale, this clearly means some highly transnationalized form of civil society. The institutions that foreshadow the emergence of such a global civil society are not international regimes or global markets, but rather increasingly transnational social movements and globally linked networks of nongovernmental organizations. Identifying and building upon common ground among movements for environmental protection human rights, disarmament, and a new agenda for development is therefore a critical institutional innovation. SMALL CHANGES ARE KEY TO THE TRANSFORMATION – CHANGE IN ONE AREA SNOWBALLS TO OTHERS Joel F. Handler, President, Law and Society Assn. 1992; “Postmodernism, Protest, and the New Social Movements” \\Roskoski P 701 //VT98-am .. Change will be brought about through small-scale transformation. By increasing the plasticity of social structures, the state itself will be converted from a source of stability to a source of change (Boyle 1985). Change will be in the democratic direction. Equality and rights discourse play a fundamental role in reconstructing collective identities. When people accept the legitimacy of the principal of equality in one sphere, they will attempt to extend it other spheres (Laclau & Mouffe 1985). In this way the contradictions and instabilities of late capitalism can be subverted from within (Thomas 1991:2). Subversion from within usually means from below. “Below” could encompass geographically situated communities, such as factories, offices, neighborhoods o “intentional” communities (Aronowitz 1988). MOVEMENTS-SOLVENCY MOVEMENTS WILL GROW AND SNOWBALL AS INDIVIDUALS UNITE IN SOCIAL MOVEMENTS THEIR COLLECTIVE ACTION MAKES A DIFFERENCE Jeremy Brecher and Tim Costello, labor historians and activists, 1994, Global Village or Global Pillage: Economic Reconstruction from the Bottom Up//jah42 p. 107//VT98-am Most individuals are largely powerless IN the face of economic forces beyond their control. But because millions of other people are affected in the same way, they have a chance to influence their conditions through collective action. To do so, people must grasp that the common interest is also their own personal interest. This happens whenever individuals join a movement a union, a party, or any organization pursuing a common goal. It happens when people push for a social objective — say universal health care or human rights–which benefits them by benefiting all those similarly situated. It underlies the development of an environmental movement which seeks to preserve the environment on which all depend. THERE IS A CRITICAL NUMBER OF DISENFRANCHISED WHO CAN CAUSE A POLITICAL CHANGE DANIEL HELLINGER & DENNIS JUDD, Webster Univ. & Univ. Missouri-St Louis, 1991, THE DEMOCRATIC FACADE\\ACS-152 p.l05//VT98-am Arthur Hadley, in an aptly titled book, THE EMPTY POLLING BOOTH: “As there is a critical mass of nuclear material necessary to trigger an atomic explosion so there appears to be a critical percentage of nonvoters necessary to produce rapid political change. Historically that percentage has been close to the 50% we now approach. They sit out there, the great mass of refrainers, disconnected from the process of democracy, but able at any moment to dominate our future. Our future is their future.” NEW SOCIAL MOVEMENTS SUCCESS IS A PROCESS ANTHONY OBERSCHALL, Political Scientist and Professor, 1993, SOCIAL MOVEMENTS: IDEOLOGIES, INTERESTS, AND IDENTITlES//schnurer-50 p. 31 //VT98-am Success is best thought of as a process of attainment rather than as a clearly defined terminal state. Complex goals such as equality for blacks and for women are not attained when a particular bill is enacted into law. Success is an institutional process whereby established organizations, public opinion and government recognize the social movement as the legitimate voice of a constituency, and assume an ever-greater share of the burden of achieving movement goals. MOVEMENTS-SOLVENCY GOVERNMENT REGULATION & LEGISLATION WILL NOT SOLVE MODERN INSTITUTIONALISM PREVENTS SOLUTIONS TO ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE BY IMPERSONALIZING RESPONSIBILITY AND OBSCURING MANAGEMENT Kay Milton, lecturer social anthropology, 1996, Environmentalism and Cultural Theory: Exploring the role of anthropology in environmental discourse//jah16 p.52 //VT98-am Not only do modern institutions routinely generate environmental damage, they also make it difficult for us to do anything about it. Saurin’s (1993) analysis identified (albeit implicitly) three aspects of this problem. First, the separation of actions from their consequences by a series of intervening processes makes it difficult to I identify the cause of environmental damage. Awareness of this difficulty has promoted ‘life cycle analysis’ as a means of assessing the environmental impacts of specific products and industrial processes (Elkington and Hailes 1993). Every stage in the manufacture and use of a product, from the means of obtaining raw materials to the manner of the product’s eventual disposal (‘cradle to grave’), is examined for its environmental consequences. Second, the distancing of actions from their consequences also makes it difficult to allocate moral responsibility for environmental damage. The involvement of a large number of actors in an industrial process makes it easier for each to abdicate responsibility for the outcome of that process; there is always someone else to blame. In addition, the agencies involved in industrial processes are often impersonal – they are companies. governments, licensing authorities. Accordingly, responsibility is also impersonalized, and the more significant of personal actions is suppressed: ‘With most of the socially significant actions mediated by a long chain of complex causal and functional dependencies, moral dilemmas recede e from sight, while the occasions for more scrutiny and conscious moral choice become increasingly rare’ (Bauman 1989; 25, quoted in Saurin 1993: 50). Awareness of this difficulty has prompted environmental campaigners in recent years to concentrate on increasing people’s understanding of the distant consequences of their actions, and persuading them to take personal responsibility for those consequences, particularly through the choices they make as consumers. Finally, the diffuse nature of environmental degradation – because, as a routine consequence of modernity, it occurs wherever an whenever modern institutions have an impact- makes its management in practical terms extremely difficult. Thus. it is not carelessness nor even a lack of awareness of degradation that constitutes the mayor barrier to ecological sensitivity and propriety, but the inability to contain the diffused manufacture of degradation’ (Saurin 1993: 47). Despite the apparently spectacular growth in the awareness of environmental problems within industrial societies, any movement towards solutions tends to be piecemeal is one of the major sources of frustration among environmentalists. STATES LACK REGULATORY CAPACITY NEEDED TO REVERSE GLOBAL INEQUITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION Joseph Camilleri, professor politics, 1996, “Impoverishment and the National state”, Earthly Goods: Environmental Change and Social JUSTICE, edited by Hampson and Reppy//jahl5 p.l53//VT98-am The key issue here is not one of brute physical force, which states have in plentiful supply, but of organizational competence, spatial and temporal flexibility, intellectual coherence, and cultural legitimacy. In this sense the national state may lack the regulatory capacity needed to arrest, let alone reverse, global environmental degradation and global impoverishment. The actions of states must be complemented by the coordinated participation of a great many other actors, representing diverse interests and occupying diverse political spaces. State cooperation resulting in the further development of international law aand international organization is necessary but not sufficient. MOVEMENTS-IMPACT MOVEMENTS STOP THE CORPORATE-INDUSTRIAL AGENDA SOCIAL MOVEMENTS REJECT DEVELOPMENT AND MODERN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Smitu Kothari, director and editor of Lokayan in Delhi, 1996, “Social Movements, Ecology, and Justice”, Earthly Goods: Environmental Change and Social Justice. edited by Hampson and Reppy//jah10 p. 159 //VT98-am In their ecological critique of the current patterns of economic development or in their assertion of newer identities based on an attachment to place or even in their basic disputes with the developmentalist state, these movements are challenging the entire range of “received ideologies.” They question the so-called sustainable development people, who believe that the industrial mode of development can be sustained along with enlightened environmental policies, that is, that the challenge is to green growth toward a sustainable green capitalism. They reject the idea that modern science and technology are intrinsically superior, taking support from the critics of modern science and technology who have opened up a significant space for a discourse on the multiple traditions of science and technology, a process that coprivileges other forms and systems of knowledge. CORPORATIONS CANNOT WITH STAND GRASSROOTS OPPOSITION Mark Dowie, journalist, Losing Ground: American environmentalism at the close of the twentieth century. 1995. p. 134 //VT98-am The environmental ad hocracy has been so effective that the problem of siting facilities has assumed major proportions for the waste management industry. Neutralizing the grassroots movement has there fore become a priority of the petrochemical and synthetics establishments. “They are the most radicalized groups I’ve seen since Vietnam,” says William Ruckelshaus, CEO of Browning-Ferris a waste management firm based in Houston. “They’ve been empowered by their own demands. They can block things. That’s a negative power. But it’s real power. Right or wrong you can’t bull your way through that kind of opposition. RADICAL ECOLOGY MOVEMENTS WILL SAVE THE PLANET FROM CORPORATE ENVIRONMENTALISM David Levine, Learning Alliance, 1991, DEFENDING THE EARTH //VT98 -am Fortunately, as the discussion between Murray Bookchin and Dave Foreman shows, a potential counterforce to this corporate “environmentalism” has been growing for some time. Indeed, there is a diverse proliferation of more radical ecological schools of thought and action including deep ecologists, social ecologists, eco-feminists, bioregionalists, Native American traditionalists, ecosocialists, and greens. These small groups have the potential to reach out to the general public and the growing grassroots environmental movement in educational and empowering ways that can transform today’s reformist environmental movement into a broad-based movement seeking fundamental change. I believe that the future of the planet may well depend on how effectively today’s radical ecologists can work together and build, such a movement. WE ONLY NEED A SMALL CRACK IN THE DOMINANT SOCIAL PARADIGM TO STOP INDUSTRIALISM AL GEDICKS, 1993. (Prof of Sociology/Archaeology @ Univ Wisconsin) THE NEVV RESOURCE WARS: NATIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL STRUGGLES AGAINST MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS // schnurer p. 204//VT98-am A common thread running through the case studies of native and rural resistance to ecologically destructive projects in this book is the key role played by native assertion of treaty rights. Once the Chippewa of Wisconsin or the Cree and Inuit of Canada asserted their sovereignty and their rights to control the natural resources within their respective territories, the focus of the debate shifted from how this project will be developed, to who will be involved in the decision making process. This is shift in the framework of the debate is most significant. Multinational corporations and prodevelopment governments rarely, if ever, make explicit provisions for real public participation in these resource decisions. For the most part, the extensive planning for these megaprojects is done in secret and presented to the public as a fait accompli. This helps to promote a “psychology of inevitability” about these projects and discourages any potential opposition from arising until it is too late to stop the project. This was certainly the case with the first phase of the James Bay project. However, once native groups are able to assert their right to participate in the decision-making process, the momentum of the corporate state machine is slowed down, at least temporarily, as natives and their environmental allies share their concerns about the wide-ranging social, economic, and environmental impacts of these projects with a wider, larger audience. MOVEMENTS-IMPACTS MOVEMENTS WILL CHANGE THE EXISTING SOCIAL PARADIGM SOCIAL MOVEMENTS CHANGE THE DOMINANT SOCIAL PARADIGM Evelyn W. Pinkerton, 1993; Alternatives Magazine, Vol 19 No3, “Co-Management Efforts at Social Movements”// Chopin //VT98-am Social movements are located in civil society, in the popular sector, more than in organized political parties. The proposed structure for. forest management would curtail the influence of political parties and civil servants ants on the management process, although government and bureaucracies would play an important oversight role if basic standards and procedures set forth in the act were violated. A more fundamental aim of social movements is to convince society to apply different values or principles than those currently used. In this case, the aim of the act is to foster the awareness and practice of long term responsible stewardship of public resources at the local level. This represents a fundamental departure from the short term focus on current forest products markets. MOVEMENTS ARE CRUCIAL TO POSITIVE SOCIAL CHANGE Piotr Sztompka (prof of sociology at Jagiellonian Univ. in Poland) 1991 Society in Action \\ Yael Karabelnik p. 151 /VT98-am Social movements represent also an intermediate stage in the dynamic emergence of the social fabric. Thus they allow us to grasp social reality as it comes into being, reflecting the central focus of SB. This intermediate quality of social movements means, on the one hand, that they participate in the shaping, constructing and reforming of external society. They arc some of the most important agents of structural change and structure-building. As Alain Touraine puts it: ’social movements belong to the processes by which a society produces its organization on the basis of its system of historical action and via class conflicts and political transactions’ (1977: 298). This role is growing in modern society through extended opportunities – economic, political and ideological – for the mobilization and functioning of movements. In most developed societies they may become crucial agents of change. Adamson and Borgos make a relevant observation with respect to American society: ‘mass” based movements and the conflict they generate are the primary agents of social change’ (1984:12). In sum, studying social movements allows us to grasp wider social structures in the process of their emergence or transformation. NEW SOCIAL MOVEMENTS ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT AGENT FOR CHANGE Piotri Sztompka, Prof. Sociology at the Univ. of Krakow, 1991, SOCIETY IN ACTION, THE THEORY OF SOCIAL BECOMING, p. 151 //VT98-am In the second place, social movements represent also an intermediate stage in the dynamic emergence of the social fabric. Thus they allow us to grasp social reality as it comes into being, reflecting the central focus of SB. This intermediate quality of social movements means, on the one hand, that they participate in the shaping, constructing and reforming of external society. They are some of the most important agents of structural change and structure building. DECISION-RULE: THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP MOVEMENTS ALIVE TO PRODUCE RADICAL SOCIAL CHANGE Cornel West, Professor Princeton University, 1994. Dissent. “The Left After Forty Years” \\clw1 p.l5 //VT98-am Given the feeble and fragmented American left and the polarized and balkanized U.S. body politic, the best we can do now is to keep alive the radical democratic tradition: deepening its vision, sharpening its analyses, exemplifying its praxis. This means committing ourselves to sustained intellectual work in academic and popular forms; it also means creating new local and national vehicles for organizing and mobilizing ordinary people so as to provide them with more attractive political options. MOVEMENTS-IMPACT MOVEMENTS SOLVE FOR OPPRESSION AND IMPERIALISM EMPIRICALLY, POPULAR PARTICIPATION IS THE ONLY WAY TO DEAL WITH CONSTRAINTS OF IMPERIALISM Howie Hawkins, Green Party activist, “Progressive Networks: A Left Municipal Program”, Z Magazine, December 1996 //Jah70 p. 17 // VT98-am Popular participation is how the Left in local government in a number of third world countries has been able to maintain its support port in the face of enormous constraints imposed by imperialism and compulsory central governments. In Kerala, India, participation has been built through party and union structures. The left coalitions in power have pursued a program emphasizing basic services such as public education and health care, land reform, and subsidized staple food instead of the usual approach of creating a low wage, repressive “good business climate for outside investors. This strategy has resulted in Kerala having far better health statistics, far more literacy, far less economic inequality, and far more freedom for women than anywhere else in India, and most of the Third World. The key to the left coalition’s ability to sustain its support. despite hostility from capital and the central government, has been the ability of its various parties to involve their grassroots membership in party decision-making and civic and union activities. A similar approach has been taken by the municipalities controlled by the Workers Party in Brazil. They have restructured their municipal governments to involve neighborhood councils in drafting policies, dealing with budgetary constraints. and implementing programs. They involve grassroots people in making the hard choices. RADICAL ENVIRONMENTALISM CALLS FOR POLITICAL AND SOCIAL JUSTICE COMBINED WITH ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS Peter List, Prof. Univ. of Oregon, 1993, RADICAL ENVIRONMENTALISM, //schnurer, p. 9 //VT98-am This division is a sign that radical environmentalism in the US. has once again become a social location for traditional political radicalism, and that the latter is a force to be reckoned with in this movement after a gap of some years. Here the destruction of the environment and the oppression on of wild nature are not isolated from the oppression of women, minorities, Native Americans, and the poor, nor from the critique of our political and economic system. Questions of political and social justice thus become as important as questions about the loss of wild species. SOCIAL MOVEMENTS COMBAT ALL FORMS OF OPPRESSION Richard Falk (prof at Princeton, United Nations Univ,) ‘91 Exploration at the Edge of Time\\Chris Chopin p.l25//VT98-am By bringing “peace and justice” into intimate social relations, we cause a distinct revolutionary challenge to arise that threatens to subvert all modes of oppression. And contrariwise , by refraining from addressing the oppressive element within ourselves we cast grave doubt upon claims that ideas can play liberating historical roles on behalf of political movements purportedly dedicated to emancipation in one form or another. Both by enlarging our sense of “the political” and by insisting that everyday practices contain an element of “the global” new social movements arc dramatically altering our understanding of what the pursuit of a just world order entails in a variety of concrete situations. MOVEMENTS-IMPACT MOVEMENTS WILL LEAD TO TRUE SOCIAL DEMOCRACY SOCIAL MOVEMENTS INCREASE DEMOCRACY Jeffrey Berry, Prof. Political Science at Tufts, 1993, ANNALS AAPSS, “Citizen Groups and the Changing Nature of Group Politics in America” July, //VT98am Although it is counterintuitive, it may be that the increasing number of interest groups coupled with the rice of citizen groups has actually improved the policy making system in some important ways. More specifically, our policymaking process may be more democratic today because of these developments. Expanded interest group participation has helped to make the policy making process more open and visible. The closed nature of subgovernment politics meant not only that participation was as restricted but that public scrutiny was minim . The proliferation of interest groups, Washington media that are more aggressive, and the willingness and ability of citizen groups in particular to go public as part of their advocacy strategy have worked to open up policymaking to the public eye. ECOLOGICAL DEMOCRACY IS COMING AS COMMUNITIES TAKE DIRECT ACTION ROY MORRISON ANTINUCLEAR AND PEACE ACTIOVIST, ENERGY CONSULTANT AND POLICY DIRECTOR OF ENERGY AMERICA AND EDUCATION GROUP, 1995, ECOLOGICAL DEMOCRACY // JAH-15 p. 230 //VT98am If there is to be a resolution to the crises AFFLICTING industrial civilization, if there is to be an ecological transformation, it will come not from the commands of the powerful, or the ministrations of experts, but from the countless ponderings of those in countless communities. By fits and starts, in the pleasures of early mornings and sun-dappled evenings, from long marches, hard work, and time spent in dirty jail cells, from politics and art, an ecological democracy is being BORN and will grow. MOVEMENTS-IMPACT MOVEMENTS SOLVE FOR WAR NEW SOCIAL MOVEMENTS HAVE RADICAL MOBILIZATION TECHNIQUES THAT OVERCOME THE ESTABLISHMENT. THEIR TACTICS ARE EFFECTIVE AGAINST THE NUCLEAR SYSTEM. Barry Adam, Prof. Sociology at Univ. of Windsor, 1993, CANADIAN REVIEW OF SOCIOLOGY AND ANTHROPOLOGY, “Post Marxism and the New Social Movements” February, //Baker, p. 328-329 //VT98-am They are informal, ad hoc, discontinuous, context sensitive and egalitarian’ without central programs or leaders who can be held responsible for their actions (Offe, 1985: 826-31). Like guerrilla warriors, the new social movements have e developed eloped low -cost, relatively effective decentralized methods C a centralized, extraordinarily expensive, high-tech adversary Their self limiting radicalism (Cohen 1985: 663) is an unsurprising tactical manoeuvre against a military industrial complex with virtually insurmountable weapons of social control, from computer surveillance through nuclear weaponry. Their dispersion and de-totalized style, operating within everyday practice and life world networks, is perhaps the mode of politics which is comprehensible to a population faced with enormously complex modern social systems. SOCIAL MOVEMENTS ELIMINATE NUCLEAR WAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION Leslie Paul Thiele. Poli Sci U. of Florida, 1993. Alternatives, Summer, “Making Democracy Safe for the World: Social Movements and Global Politics” // Roskoski-34 p. 293//VT98-am Perhaps the best known statement of this linkage was made by President John F, Kennedy in his “Strategy of Peace” speech of 1963. Here Kennedy announced his overture to the Soviet Union with a unilateral US moratorium on the atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons. He then asked: “And is not peace, in the last analysis, basically a matter of human rights — the right to live out our lives without fear of devastation — the right to breathe air as nature provided it — the right of future generations to a happy existence.” Obviously, the point here is not that social movements, as opposed to liberal governmental leaders, hold a monopoly on this political sensibility. The point is that social movements are actively involved in its extension, propagation, and instantiation. With geographical and temporal interdependence their most basic assumption, transnational social movements simultaneously pursue freedom from the fear of military threats, domestic as well as foreign, and freedom from environmental threats. Importantly, the constituents whose right to freedom from fear is being promulgated are citizens of the world at large, including those yet to be conceived. SOCIAL MOVEMENTS SOLVE MILITARIZATION Leslie Paul Thiele. Poli Sci U. of Florida, 1993. AIternatives, Summer, “Making Democracy Safe for the World: Social Movements and Global Politics // Roskoski p. 298 //VT98-am Social movements, and the peace and environmental movements in particular, are perhaps best seen as experiments in the creation and guardianship of life worlds that are not oriented to the fear induced production and consumption of wealth and weaponry. The attitudinal and behavioral changes in society that testify to the success of social movements are a hopeful sign of the potential for these alternate life worlds. GRASSROOTS MOBILIZATION KEY TO PEACE Elise Boulding (former secretary general of International Peace Research Association and professor emeritus Dartmouth) 1992; Peace and Conflicts After the Cold War, “The concept of Peace Culture” \\ Chopin p. //VT98-am Creating a peace culture means building up the cultural themes of peaceableness, and there are many tasks associated with this process. One is to redefine development as human and social development, reasserting the centrality of human welfare as over against technological mastery of people and environments. Another is to redevelop healthy local life at the grassroots, with an emphasis on people’s participation in shaping their lives, with a parallel development of the skills of transnational participation in human problem solving across national borders. Finally the role of peace education was noted, in forming young people who can function as peace-builders at every level from family to world, secure in their identity as members a common human species. MOVEMENTS-IMPACT MOVEMENTS SOLVE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS MOVEMENTS SAVE THE PLANET FROM ECO-DESTRUCTION Paul Wapner, American University, 1994.. Global Civil Society, “Environmental Activism and Global Civil Society” \\ clw- 1 p. 393 //VT98-am Whether they disseminate an ecological sensibility by publicizing instances of environmental harm, rewrite the terms of good corporate conduct, challenge traditional understandings of development aid, or expand the notion of wildlife conservation to include sustainable life-styles, transnational environmental groups arc reshaping environmental action. They are discovering, or more accurately nurturing, a sphere of collective life that is, perhaps fortunately, resistant to government influence. As they attempt to identify and engage these opportunities, “saving the planet” becomes an exercise in world civic politics. DESTRUCTION OF BIODIVERSITY REPRESENTS TEH SINGLE GREATEST THREAT TO SURVIVAL, ONLY LOCAL ACTIVISM CAN SOLVE Craig MacFarland, Consultant Tropical Natural Resource Management, 1993, PROPOSED OPERATION AND STRUCTURE OF A PERMANENT GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY, Hearing Before the Subcommittee on International Dept., finance trade and monetary policy, August 3, //EM, p. 11 //VT98-am First, the need to stem, indeed reverse, the trends in the destruction of the world’s biological diversity is vital to the future of all life on this planet, including human welfare. It is probably the single greatest issue of the present and next centuries. Second, this can only be accomplished by enabling societies, their citizens, and their institutions to confront and solve their local environmental and developmental problems. Solutions to global problems must be built from the local level. They cannot be imposed from the top “downward.” MOVEMENTS WILL SHAPE A NEW WORLD ORDER THAT RESOLVES GLOBAL POVERTY Joseph Camilleri, professor politics, 1996, “Impoverishment and the National state”, Earthly Goods: Environmental Change and Social Justice. edited by Hampson and Reppy//jah15 p. 153//VT98-am If economic and technological change is to be governed by criteria derived from a new normative consensus, then the state cannot be expected to be the prime mover in this process. A more likely outcome is that the state will function as the principal arena of conflict, a highly visible stage on which a range of competing values, interests, and organizational principles will contest the right to shape the emerging global political and economic order. How that contest unfolds, what particular form such globalism takes, will in large measure depend on the complex interaction between the world polity (which includes but is not reducible to the system of states) and international civil society. It is unlikely that a new global civilization equipped with a comprehensive system of authoritative institutions capable of meeting the challenge posed by the socio-ecological crisis will emerge in the near future. On the other hand, it is entirely possible that the praxis of social and political movements, coupled with the twin processes of political integration and fragmentation, will set the stage for a cultural and institutional pluralism more attentive to the implications of global impoverishment and environmental breakdown. ONLY DIRECT INVOLVEMENT OF PEOPLE WILL SOLVE THE ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS NICHOLAS HILDYARD, CO-EDITOR OF THE ECOLOGIST MAGAZINE, FUTURE OF PROGRESS: REFLECTIONS ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT, 1995//JAH p. 160 // VT98-am FOR, ultimately, it is only through the direct and decisive involvement of local peoples and communities in seeking solutions to the environmental crisis that the crisis will be resolved. As Lois Gibbs, coordinator of the Citizens’ Clearinghouse on Hazardous WASTES, a grassroots environmental group in the US, puts it: ‘Change does not come about through slick lobbying techniques, CLEVER research or “magic facts” but through trusting in people’s common sense and willingness to act once they are aware of the issues.’ Environmental groups can never match the financial power of those vested interests against which they are invariably pitted. But they have one resource whose strength, once tapped, should not be underestimated. People. MOVEMENTS-IMPACT MOVEMENTS WILL FACILITATE A TRUE CLEAN ENERGY SOLUTION CRITICAL ELEMENT FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY IS A BROAD PUBLIC CONSTITUENCY FOR IT JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 8 To institute these measures, a broad, active, and potent political constituency is needed. Until it emerges, the renewables and efficiency industries will continue delivering only a fraction of the benefits of which they are capable, regardless of the technological progress they are making today. MOVEMENTS NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND CLEAN ENERGY Kenneth Cameron, Staff writer, 1993, POLITICAL AFFAIRS, “Atmospheric Destruction and Human Survival” January, //PK, p. 14 //VT98-am AS we consider the future, it is apparent that ACHIEVING energy EFFIEINCY and expanding clean energy industries must everywhere come about mainly by expanding movements such as those that have so far done the work of fighting for alternatives and have achieved whatever $success has been achieved movements that are essentially an amalgamation of social change and environmentalist groups – and by concentrating on political struggle. WE NEED CITIZEN MOVEMENTS TO REALLY GET SOLAR John J. Monahan, SUNDAY TELEGRAM, February 2, 1997; Pg. B5; TITLE: America should spiral out of shadow and use sun’s power // VT98-acs [John T. O'Connor, president of Greenworks Inc., and co-author] “We need a reinvigorated, nationwide citizen’s solar movement to insist that government and energy users replace increasing proportions of fossil fuel and nuclear energy with renewable energy, so that manufacturers of those technologies experience steady expansion in the market in order to reduce unit costs through economies of scale,” the authors said. CITIZENS MUST MAKE A STAND AGAINST ENERGY MONOPOLIES IN ORDER TO GET SOLAR ENERGY John J. Monahan, SUNDAY TELEGRAM, February 2, 1997; Pg. B5; TITLE: America should spiral out of shadow and use sun’s power // VT98-acs [John T. O'Connor, president of Greenworks Inc., and co-author] In the coming years, they said, citizens will have to take a stand in the face of monopolistic opposition to get solar power. ————————————————————————————————————————-MOVEMENTS-IMPACT MOVEMENTS LEAD TO THE CREATION OF A SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY GRASSROOTS DEMOCRATIC RENEWAL REQUIRED FOR TRANSITION TO ECOLOGICALLY STABLE SOCIETY Tom Athanasiou, Author, Divided Planet. The Ecology of Rich and Poor, 1996//jah-79 p. 5 //VT98am So, how to proceed? There is, first, no shortage of either good ideas or shared vision. Among grassroots activists , an international consensus is forming about where we must go, and why, and about what must take place before there can be any honest hope of arriving in time. Alabama’s anti toxics organizers, the Chipco tree-huggers of India’s highlands, and a good fraction of the staff (if not always the executives) of mainstream American environmental groups agree on the need for democratic renewal and a grassroots redefinition of “sustainable development”–as principles in themselves and as preconditions for a transition to an ecologically stable society. On the technical side, the menu of alternatives, from ancient forms of agricultural forestry to new hybrid solar-hydrogen energy systems, is now so impressive as to make it obvious that lack of options is not what impedes progress. At the policy level, too, a rough consensus is in place. New ideas emerge from time to time–global taxation of the arms trade is a recent example–but they do not emerge to stand alone. An endless stream of books, reports, and newsletters, long ago sketched out the general features of a new, green “policy regime.” HYDROPOWER DISADVANTAGE SHELL A. WHEN GIVEN THE CHOICE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES, THE MARKETS WILL CHOOSE HYDROPOWER GREEN PRICING WILL MERELY PROMOTE DAMAGING HYDROPOWER Edward Holt, Regulatory Assistance Project, 1997; TITLE: Disclosure And Certification: Truth And Labeling For Electric Power: Competition, Green Marketing and Green Power; http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Price is always a consideration, even for committed green buyers, and today’s supply prices are low. The current overcapacity in much of the country contributes to depressed short-term market prices. Existing renewable capacity, especially large hydro, is more likely to be competitive than new renewable capacity. B. DAMS ARE THREATS TO RIVERS DAMS ARE THE WORST HUMAN THREATS TO A RIVER DAVID M. BOILING, FRMR EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF F RENDS OF THE RIVER, 1994, HOW TO SAVE A RIVER: A Handbook for citizen action,p.213//VT98JGM No human development presents as singular and visible a threat to a river as a dam. Dams have the unique capacity to utterly disrupt an entire river ecosystem with one act of construction. And while a dam may not be forever, its monumental presence promises to outlast several human generations and the animal species whose habitat it destroys. C. WE CANNOT AFFORD TO DESTROY THE LIFE IN OUR RIVERS RIVERS ARE KEY TO ALL ECOSYSTEMS Tim Palmer, author of 9 books on river conservation, 1994, LIFELINES: The Case for River Conservation p.10//VT98-JGM Most important, rivers form lifelines, housing fisheries of eclectic diversity and riparian corridors with the richest habitat, while underpinning a wide range of ecosystems. Rivers are exquisite in their abilities to nurture life, sublime in functioning detail, impressive in contributions of global significance. They carry nutrients to estuaries and the fishes of the sea, deposit fertile soil on flood plains, mold and sculpt the earth we live on, and maintain their channels and streamsides as biological wonderlands. Their clean water and gravel beds sustain and shelter a host of invertebrate life essential to the food chain. The rivers’ flood plains absorb excess runoff and release it slowly when floods recede. Rivers generate microclimates that moderate summer’s heat. They form the homes and highways for hundreds of species of fish–one of the world’s great food sources. HYDRO-LINKS GIVEN THE CHOICE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES, HYDROPOWER WILL BE CHOSEN WHEN RENEWABLE ENERGY TURNS OUT TO BE HYDROELECTRIC DAMS, IT IS ECOLOGICALLY UNSOUND AGIS SALPUKAS, The New York Times, March 9, 1997, Section 4; Page 5; TITLE: Inheriting the Wind; Green Power Wanes, but Not at the Grass Roots // VT98-acs As various states begin pilot programs to investigate electricity deregulation, marketers of power are finding that offering some form of green power is a selling point. While green energy has often turned out to be hydroelectric, which is generated through huge dams that inundate land for miles, its environmental appeal has drawn in utilities and other energy companies. HYDRO POWER IS THE CHEAPEST POWER SOURCE Teresa Hansen, Associate Editor, February, 1997, Electric Light & Power, “Maintenance becomes critical as nation’s power plants age”, Pg. 13//VT98-jgm There are 4,500 hydroelectric generating units in the United States, accounting for 89 GW of power. These units had a generating capacity of 257 billion kWh in 1994, almost 9 percent of the nation’s electricity production. This includes both conventional hydro facilities and pumped storage plants. Conventional hydro capacity in the United States is 72 GW in 3,362 separate generating units. Pumped storage units total 18 GW, 20 percent of total capacity. Hydro is the lowest cost source of electricity. Average operation and maintenance cost is only 0.6 cents per kWh, less than coal which ranks second at 2.1 cents. HISTORICALLY, PURPA REQUIREMENTS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY LED TO MORE HYDROPOWER PETER KROUSE; Staff Writer, April 6, 1997, News & Record (Greensboro, NC), “SMALL HYDRO PRODUCERS SEEK LEGISLATIVE HELP,” Pg. E5//VT98-JGM In 1978, Congress passed the Public Utility Regulatory Policy Act, or PURPA, encouraging the development of renewable sources of energy such as water, solar and wind power. The act required large public utilities to buy the alternative energy at reasonable prices. Responding to the call, many entrepreneurs around the country resurrected small mills and hydroelectric plants that had been abandoned years ago when the large coal-burning utilities began to dominate the landscape. ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS ARE LIMITING HYDROPOWER IN THE STATUS QUO VICTOR S. REZENDES, DIRECTOR, ENERGY, RESOURCES, AND SCIENCE ISSUES, March 31, 1997, GAO Reports, “FEDERAL POWER – ISSUES RELATED TO THE DIVESTITURE OF FEDERAL HYDROPOWER RESOURCES,”RPT-NUMBER: GAO/RCED-97-48 MARCH 31, 1997//VT98-JGM Concerns about the impacts of water projects on the environment, especially the habitat of endangered and threatened species, are increasingly constraining the ability of the operating agencies to generate hydropower, especially during hours of peak demand. Since the late 1980s, these restrictions have decreased generating capacity, resulting in foregone power revenues of millions of dollars to the PMAs as well as costs of equal magnitude to replace the lost generating capacity and to buy replacement power. For example, according to Bureau officials, to protect the migrations of Chinook salmon, the Bureau has restricted the use of five hydropower units at the Shasta powerplant in the Central Valley Project in California. According to these officials, since 1987 these restrictions have resulted in additional costs of about $ 50 million to purchase power to meet Western’s contractual obligations. According to officials from the Bureau, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. (FERC), the PMAs, environmental groups, and trade associations, the effects of environmental constraints on power production will likely continue in the future and could affect the price the government would obtain if it sold some hydropower assets. A divestiture proposal would need to address the postdivestiture responsibilities of the buyer and the government in accommodating environmental concerns. HYDRO-IMPACT DAMS DESTROY RIVER ECOSYSTEMS AND ALL THEY INTERACT WITH RIVERS ARE THE KEY TO LIFE ON THE PLANET DAVID M. BOILING, FRMR EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF FRIENDS OF THE RIVER, 1994, HOW TO SAVE A RIVER: A Handbook for citizen action,p.211//VT98-JGM Without going too far out on an ecological limb, it’s safe to say that rivers are among the earth’s most valuable and VULNERABLE resources and that they, perhaps more than any other single feature on the planet, are essential for the health and prosperity of human civilization. HEALTH OF RIVERS DEFINES THE HEALTH OF THE PLANET DAVID M. BOILING, FORMER EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF FRIENDS OF THE RIVER, 1994, HOW TO SAVE A RIVER: A Handbook for citizen action,p.209//VT98-JGM People who love rivers don’t usually need technical explanations or elaborate inventories to explain or defend their value. A river is worth saving for what it manifestly is: a corridor of water, rock and land, a zone of life, a place of inexpressible beauty constantly reshaping itself. But the value of rivers exceeds anything most of us can imagine–it encompasses the very essence of planetary life. Healthy rivers are so important they define, in many respects, the health of the planet. DAMS ARE THE LEAST REPAIRABLE DAMAGE TO RIVERS MICHEAL T. PYLE, ASSOCIATE @ MCCUTHEN, DOYLE, BROWN & ENERSEN, SAN FRANCISCO, J.D., STANFORD LAW SCHOOL 1994; JANUARY 1995, STANFORD ENVIRONMENTAL LAW JOURNAL, “BEYOND FISH LADDERS:” 14 STAN. ENVTL. L.J. 97//VT98-JGM There are between 68,000 and 75,000 large dams on American rivers, damming seventeen percent of the 3.5 million miles of natural rivers in this country. By contrast, we have protected only one quarter of one percent of our rivers. Dams are not the only source of river destruction, though. Chemical contamination, channelization, and riparian development continue to degrade our rivers Nevertheless, “the least reversible form of river alteration comes from dams. ” RIVERS ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO THE DESTRUCTIVE IMPACTS OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT DAVID M. BOILING, FRMR EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF FRIENDS OF THE RIVER, 1994, HOW TO SAVE A RIVER: A Handbook for citizen action,p.201 //VT9 8 -JGM Poets and biologists share a vision of rivers and streams as the arteries and capillaries of Earth. That romantic metaphor is grounded in scientific fact. Riparian ecosystems nourish and sustain the most complex and important food chains in nature, distributing nutrients, carrying off waste, pulsing with life. They are the breeding grounds, the nurseries, and the habitat for a bewildering variety of species, and they are the natural systems most vulnerable to the destructive impact of human development. DAMS EQUAL IMPOUNDMENT, DIVERSION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ECOSYSTEMS DAVID M. BOILING, FORMER EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF FRIENDS OF THE RIVER, 1994, HOW TO SAVE A RIVER: A Handbook for citizen action, p.221 //VT98-JGM Hydropower projects pose two separate threats to rivers. One is caused by impoundment about which we have already written,and the other is caused by the diversion of water. Some hydro diversions are brief, as short as the width of a dam, but others go for miles through tunnels and penstocks before water is returned to the stream.’ Another problem created by hydropower projects can best be illustrated by a statement quoted in Portland’s The Oregonian by the chair of the Montana power company. “I happen to be one of those people,” he said, “who thinks the aesthetics of a place are improved by putting a nice transmission line through it.” Thousands of miles of wilderness have been “improved” by hydroelectric power lines, although most people wouldn’t describe the results as beautiful. HYDRO-IMPACT HURTING RIVERS STOPS A NEW ENVIRONMENTAL CONSCIOUSNESS WHICH PROTECTING RIVERS PROVIDES PROTECTION OF RIVERS IS THE VEHICLE TO ECOLOGICAL MINDSET Tim Palmer, author of 9 books on river conservation, 1994, LIFELINES: The Case for River Conservation, p.22//VT98-JGM Even more difficult than the transition from saving sites to saving eco-systems, the modern era requires the transition to a different way of regarding the Earth — not just as capital to be consumed, but as a place to live, as a place for all creatures to live, as a place for nature to thrive. If we can treat our rivers with greater respect, then we might prove that we can live more compatibly with the rest of the Earth. RIVER CONSERVATION ALLOWS US TO RECONSTRUCT OUR WORLD VIEW Tim Palmer, author of 9 books on river conservation, 1994, LIFELINES: The Case for River Conservation, p.221-2//VT98-JGM Part of the reconstruction of the world view and hence the world’s well-being may lie in the story of our river — of every river. Each has a biography, an epic of birth, wonder. use abandonment, new importance revitalization, biological dependency and all-powerful permanence” Do we know that saga? Philosopher Thomas Berry stressed the importance of this theme. “Tell me a story,” he wrote in Dream of the Earth, “that will be my story as well as the story of everyone and everything about me, a story that brings us together in a valley community . . . that brings together the human community with every living being in the valley….” RIVER PROTECTION IS THE BRIDGE TO ECOSYSTEM PROTECTION Tim Palmer, author of 9 books on river conservation, 1994, LIFELINES: The Case for River Conservation, p.22 // VT98-JGM The urgency to protect our rivers increases every day as the threats increase and as the inventory of health waterways diminishes. Even though much has been lost, the continent may never be this good again. In the difficult leap from isolated environmental improvements to ecosystem management. rivers form a bridge or a half-step, incorporating the older motivation to save specific places such as parks but demanding a larger view of watersheds, of interrelationships among species, and of the effects of development on private land. Rivers offer an avenue of access to ecosystem protection that may prove more effective than traditional environmental efforts, which have frequently focused on wilderness, parks or public lands without addressing the overlap and the complications of the larger picture. River protection advocates have already begun the difficult step of incorporating concerns about private land and the widening circle of factors involved in watershed management. TREATMENT OF RIVERS IS A MIRROR OF TREATMENT TO HUMANS Tim Palmer, author of 9 books on river conservation, 1994, LIFELINES: The Case for River Conservation, p.207//VT98-JGM Our treatment of rivers takes on extra meaning as well. When we heal our streams we may likewise heal our society. And perhaps it works the other way around. A society that truly values such principles as fairness, health, peace’ freedom, and cooperation would surely kind itself unwilling to treat rivers with neglect and abuse. RIVER PROTECTION IS KEY TO DEVELOPING A LAND ETHIC WALTER BICKFORD, EXEC DIR OF MASS WATERSHED COALITION & MARK TISA, CHIEF OF FISHERIES FOR MASS DIV. OF FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE, 1991, FISHERIES MANAGEMENT AND WATERSHED DEVELOPMENT. edited by Richard Stroud, “Flawless Fisheries through watershed management,” p. 105 // VT98 -JGM It’s a little bit of both. First of all, the best interpretation that I’ve come across, is simply a Leopold notion of the integrity, stability, and beauty of the biotic community. That’s what I call a land ethic. The biotic community depends on the habitat, the land so you have to have a land ethic. I think that having respect for the land, and the interconnection of it, and our responsibility to it, is a land ethic. A river is but a summation of the valley, the land, and everything on it. I see that as a key approach to developing that land ethic. HYDRO-IMPACT DAMS THREATEN SPECIES EXTINCTION HYDROPOWER THREATENS ESSENTIAL SPECIES Irving M. Mintzer, Center for Global Change; Alan S. Miller & Adam Serchuk, Renewable Energy Policy Project. 1996; TITLE: The Environmental Imperative: A Driving Force In The Development And Deployment Of Renewable Energy Technologies, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs Hydropower can have profound ecosystem impacts, and in America may threaten plants and animals protected by the Endangered Species Act. HYDROELECTRIC DAMS HURT SALMON POPULATIONS MARGARET KRIZ, The National Journal, March 8, 1997; Pg. 448; TITLE: Power Hungry // VT98-acs ”Most of us recognize that if the dams weren’t there, the salmon would be much better off,” said John J. Magnuson, a zoologist at the University of Wisconsin (Madison), who chaired a 1996 National Research Council study on Northwestern salmon populations. DAMS INJURE FISH IN A VARIETY OF WAYS PR NEWSWIRE, OCTOBER 5, 1994//VT98-JGM Government scientists say the hydroelectric dams are a primary cause of the dramatic decline in Northwest salmon populations in recent years. In addition to inhibiting upstream travel for salmon returning to their home streams to spawn, the dams have slowed the downstream flows making young salmon more susceptible to predators. In some cases, young salmon die because their gills begin changing from fresh to salt water before they arrive in the ocean. HYDROELECTRIC DAMS ARE PRIMARY CAUSE OF SALMON DECLINE SCOTT SONNER, STAFF WRITER, JANUARY 19,1995, SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS, “Government TO PROPOSE”//VT98-JGM Government scientists say the hydropower dams are a primary cause of the dramatic decline in Northwest salmon populations in recent years. Not only do the young salmon headed downstream face potentially deadly turbines, but they also are susceptible to predators in the calm waters behind the dams. Once they get to the Pacific Ocean, they face an equally perilous journey back to their spawning grounds. STUDIES REVEAL THE BRUTALITIES OF DAMS DEREK MILLS, DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY AND NATURAL RESOURCES, UNIVERSITY OF EDINBOROUGH, 1989, ECOLOGY AND THE MANAGEMENT OF ATLANTIC SALMON, P. 192193//VT98-JGM During the tests carried out by Munro all dead fish were examined and the types of damage were classified. Broadly, the dead fish could be sorted Into three classes: ‘whole fish’ `which `were complete, although often severely injured, ‘headless fish’ in which the head had been severed from body as if by tearing, leaving the body complete and often with one or two gill arches attached, and ‘parts’ which varied from almost complete bodies to quite small sections of fish. DAMS CAUSE EROSION AND HABITAT DESTRUCTION DOWNSTREAM Tim Palmer, author of 9 books on river conservation, 1994, LIFELINES: The Case fat- River Conservation, p.72//VT98-JGM Finally, the flow regimes below hydroelectric dams are often given as little concern as a bathtub drain. Power companies cut off flows entirely as they recharge reservoirs; then they release torrents that scour riverbeds for peaking power two hours each afternoon. The results are degraded riverbeds and bulk losses of habitat caused by dam-induced erosion. DAMS DESTROY NATURAL FISHERIES AND LEAD TO DEVASTATING HUMAN-CREATED FISHERIES Tim Palmer, author of 9 books on river conservation, 1994, LIFELINES: The Case for River Conservation, p.l0//VT98-JGM Rivers do all of this for free if we allow them to do it Once the waters are squandered these services are provided only at great cost – if provided at all–and usually without the desired results. Dams destroy fisheries, for example, that we attempt to replace through hatcheries–prohibitively costly in the long run and ironically weakening the gene pool of the very fish whose numbers we seek to augment. DAM RESERVOIRS CAUSE FLOODING AND HABITAT DESTRUCTION Tim Palmer, author of 9 books on river conservation, 1994, LIFELINES: The Case for River Conservation, p.71//VT98-JGM The most obvious environmental cost of hydroelectric dams is that the reservoirs flood portions of rivers, causing them and their landscapes. to utterly disappear. Hundreds of projects decimate resident fisheries by flooding habitat and blocking migration routes. HYDRO-IMPACT AQUATIC SPECIES DIVERSITY IS OF PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE GENETIC DIVERSITY OF SPECIES IS PARAMOUNT EDWARD BOWLES, IDAHO DEPT OF FISH AND GAME, USES AND EFFECTS OF CULTURED FISHES IN AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS, “SUPPLEMENTATION:” EDITED BY SCHRAMM AND PIPER, VT98-JGM The genetic diversity of a species represents the spectrum of performance capabilities found within and among populations (a group of interbreeding individuals) . This diversity represents an important hierarchy that begins at the individual population level, which has evolved through adaptation to its local environment (e.g. Schonewald-Cox et al. 1983; Ryman and Utter 1987). The diversity within this group is important for continued adaptation and resiliency to environmental fluctuations and change (Solule 1987; Waples 1990, 1991). Part of this diversity is provided by natural gene flow (straying and interbreeding) with other adjacent populations. Those populations that maintain an appreciable level of gene flow combine to form a stock, whose sustainability and resiliency are a direct function of the natural diversity within and among its populations. Although additional levels in the hierarchy may. be appropriate, a grouping of stocks is considered to represent the species unit, such as the Snake River spring and summer chinook salmon identified by the National Marine Fisheries Service for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Within this hierarchy, the species unit is only as strong as ids stock diversity and productivity, which are only as strong as their population diversity and productivity. ALL SPECIES IN AN AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM ARE CRUCIAL DAVID M. BOILING, FRMR EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF FRIENDS OF THE RIVER, 1994, HOW TO SAVE A RIVER; A Handbook for citizen action,p . 202//VT98-JGM Despite their value, river systems have been devastated by human development. A 1990 study by The Nature Conservancy reported that, in North America, 34 percent of fishes, 28 percent of amphibian species, 65 percent of crayfish, and 73 percent of mussels were in danger, their status ranging from “rare to imperiled.” And the rate of extinction appears to be accelerating much faster for aquatic species than for their terrestrial counterparts. More than one biologist has described the effect of this species decline on the health of ecosystems as being analogous to the removal of rivets from an airplane wing – pull enough of them out, the wing falls off and the plane crashes. EXTINCTION OF ANY POPULATION DECREASES THE GENETIC DIVERSITY OF ALL SPECIES CRAIG BUSAK, WASH DEPT OF FISH AND WILDLIFE & KEVIN CURRENS, PF @OREGON ST 1995, USES AND EFFECTS OF CULTURED FISHES IN AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS, “GENETIC RISKS AND HAZARDS IN HATCHERY OPERATIONS,” EDITED BY SCHRAMM VT98-JGM Extinction is the complete loss of all genetic information. It is the most serious hazard because once a population is gone, all the unique aspects of the diversity it contained also are lost. Because different populations have different gene pools, extinction of any population also reduces overall genetic diversity of the spec~e: AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS ARE INTERCONNECTED — MUST SAVE ALL SPECIES DAVID M. BOILING, FORMER EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF FRIENDS OF THE RIVER | HOW TO SAVE A RIVER: A Handbook for citizen action,p.202//VT98-JGM The food chain woven through this interconnected environment ranges in size and complexity from the tiny microorganisms inhabiting the interstices between riverbed gravels in the hyporheic zone, to invertebrates like stone flies to crustaceans like crayfish, to frogs and salamanders and turtles, to minnows and larger predatory fish, to ducks and geese, to mink and otter, beaver, bear, osprey, and eagle, and all the other terrestrial species and birds of prey which depend on fish for food. Crucial to the integrity of this food chain is the riparian vegetation which stabilizes watershed slopes and stream banks, filters pollution, shades the water and cools it for heatsensitive fish. It also supplies nutrients, habitat and food, and provides the transition from bank, to flood plain, to watershed slope. The health of the flood plain is integral to the health of the river and to the mix of species it supports. Flood plains absorb and meter out water, providing essential regulation for volume and velocity so that stream and riverbeds aren’t scoured and stream banks don’t erode.

Aquaculture is an Ancient Art – History of Modern Aquaculture

aquaculture

Originally uploaded by jurvetson

“The early Hawaiians took advantage of natural fish ponds near the ocean. The seawater seeps through cracks in the lava (too small for fish to escape) and combines with spring water to create a brackish pool of filtered water.” – Image Description.

Aquaculture as we know it today has Ancient roots. It is well documented that Aquaculture had its beginnings in China somewhere around 2,500 BC.

Carp were held up in artificial ponds for use as a source of protein and their “brood” were used to feed their exotic, and much coveted, silkworms.  Through breeding and genetic mutation, those Carp became what we know today as the common Goldfish.

The Romans kept fish ponds for both food and enjoyment.  The Ancient Hawaiians pioneered Aquaculture; raising both fish for food and plants for consumption, and aesthetic beauty. Their aquaculture centered on lore and mythical gods and deities. Thus aquaculture had a very significant role in their everyday life aside from being “just for food.”

Modern Aquaculture, as we know it, is a new animal. It is relatively “new” because the need for a reliable source of healthy, sustainable food has steadily increased as our Earth’s population has exploded. The ocean can only yield so much (much to the lament of modern-day Fishermen and Shrimpers).  

Following the tradition of the Ancients, the wise thing to do was to create a better way to feed the Earth’s population. “Underwater Agriculture,” “The Blue Revolution,” “Fish and Shrimp Farming,” – call it what you like, the reality is the same.

The Ancient Art of Aquaculture has evolved today into a way to feed a multitude…for a fraction of the cost, with less waste, more quality control and, when implemented correctly, a “clean-green” source of protein for the benefit of all.

We cannot “Save the entire World,” yet. However, what we can do, is start by making sure that in our Communities, people are being educated about Modern Aquaculture Technology. We can start by pioneering fresh, new ways to produce disease-free seafood. We can start a new way of looking at how we eat, what we eat…and “how” it gets “here.”

That’s what Modern Aquaculture is all about and that’s the very core of what Island Bounty, SA stands for.

Positive Effects of Technology on Society – Modern Aquaculture Creates Safe Seafood

Island Bounty’s mission is very focused at the highest level of bio-security within its aquaculture production model.

The Modern Aquaculture Technology that we implement and practice will ensure that Island Bounty Foods maintains and produces safe, nutritious domestic seafood products.

Food hygiene relates to “all conditions and measures necessary to ensure the safety and suitability of food at all stages of the foodchain”.                                                                                       

From incubation to the “plate,” we have the modern technology necessary to create Safe Seafood. Aquaculture is a very positive branch of Science and Technology that helps our society in too many ways to count. 

What’s so Great about Aquaculture? It only makes practical sense! We are over-harvesting our oceans on a global scale. Farming seafood can provide a consistent, high-quality, year-round supply of healthy, clean food and a major source of protein for millions of the Earth’s inhabitants.

Not to mention…some really delicious meals!  | IMAGE: “Boiled Shrimp”  | Seafood | Originally uploaded by aolima